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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:07 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Asking a prospective free agent to risk $50 million below the highest offer, for a chance to earn an extra $20 million on a proposition with a probability of, at the very best, 50/50, and an expected value of -$15 million, is absurdly cheap. Absolutely no way around that.


Expected value of minus $15M needs to be kept in context of the size of the deal or about 5% of the $300M or slightly higher percent if you use $250M as the denominator. So absurdly cheap is the wrong relative term.
That's the absolute highest EV number to show how ridiculous the stipulation was. Only ~20 players at Machado's position have had at least one season of 550 PA's at their age-35 season or later...in the last 50 years. Fewer than 20 have had at least 2. The "real" EV is likely closer to -$50 million, or about 17% of the guaranteed money offered by the competition. The Sox wanted a steep discount for no reason. That's cheap. Absurdly, so.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:42 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Asking a prospective free agent to risk $50 million below the highest offer, for a chance to earn an extra $20 million on a proposition with a probability of, at the very best, 50/50, and an expected value of -$15 million, is absurdly cheap. Absolutely no way around that.


Expected value of minus $15M needs to be kept in context of the size of the deal or about 5% of the $300M or slightly higher percent if you use $250M as the denominator. So absurdly cheap is the wrong relative term.
That's the absolute highest EV number to show how ridiculous the stipulation was. Only ~20 players at Machado's position have had at least one season of 550 PA's at their age-35 season or later...in the last 50 years. Fewer than 20 have had at least 2. The "real" EV is likely closer to -$50 million, or about 17% of the guaranteed money offered by the competition. The Sox wanted a steep discount for no reason. That's cheap. Absurdly, so.



Not for no reason, they signed his buddy and brother in law. :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:34 pm 
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If so few 3B can get 550 PA at 35 or older, why the fuck should anybody offer $70M guaranteed for those years?

If anything, Jerry should have offered 8/280 with no options and no opt-out. A petulant Manny as a league average DH at 35 is pointless. It's like the girlfriend in college who promises her virgin cherry if you buy her the $200 earrings, when that $200 could be used on renting a more talented whore.

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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 1:50 pm 
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Eloy, GONE! Robert, GONE! Can they throw some money at Puig for this season? No. Instead we get Brian Fucking Goodwin.

Don't get me wrong, I won't be rooting for this guy to fail, but just die already Jerry.
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The White Sox have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Brian Goodwin, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’s a natural fit for a White Sox club that just learned it’ll be without center fielder Luis Robert for the next three to four months.

The 30-year-old Goodwin had an opt-out clause in a minor league deal with the Pirates and hit the market yesterday. He’s certainly not a star, but with the exception of a disastrous 20-game stint with the Reds in 2020, which consisted of a mere 55 plate appearances, he’s been a solid hitter in the Majors. Goodwin slashed .258/.327/.469 in 166 games with the Angels from 2019-20, and he’s a career .250/.317/.455 hitter in 1124 Major League plate appearances. His sudden return to the market made this a fairly straightforward fit for a White Sox club that has lost both Robert and Eloy Jimenez for the bulk of the season — if not the entirety of the season — due to injury.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/05/ ... odwin.html

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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 1:56 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Eloy, GONE! Robert, GONE! Can they throw some money at Puig for this season? No. Instead we get Brian Fucking Goodwin.

Don't get me wrong, I won't be rooting for this guy to fail, but just die already Jerry.
Quote:
The White Sox have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Brian Goodwin, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’s a natural fit for a White Sox club that just learned it’ll be without center fielder Luis Robert for the next three to four months.

The 30-year-old Goodwin had an opt-out clause in a minor league deal with the Pirates and hit the market yesterday. He’s certainly not a star, but with the exception of a disastrous 20-game stint with the Reds in 2020, which consisted of a mere 55 plate appearances, he’s been a solid hitter in the Majors. Goodwin slashed .258/.327/.469 in 166 games with the Angels from 2019-20, and he’s a career .250/.317/.455 hitter in 1124 Major League plate appearances. His sudden return to the market made this a fairly straightforward fit for a White Sox club that has lost both Robert and Eloy Jimenez for the bulk of the season — if not the entirety of the season — due to injury.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/05/ ... odwin.html

Jesus, Puig is there for the taking and it seemed like he wanted to be here before the season.

Jesus.

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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm 
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They're not cheap, TLR just doesn't like THE LATINS.


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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 2:45 pm 
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Strange if true given that he has Spanish ancestry...and is a fluent Spanish speaker.

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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 2:49 pm 
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He's an EL TIO JUAN?!??!


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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 3:18 pm 
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I think the issue is they are running real thin at Center Fielders...which explains the low risk signing of Goodwin.

There's plenty of teams that appear to want nothing to do with Puig, so it's not just the White Sox.

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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 5:56 pm 
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I'm completely fine with our corner outfielders. If you get Puig, then what, put Eaton in CF? BAD idea.

We can win the division with what we have.

Why not use Grandal as trade bait. You know he's going to cost us a game in the playoffs anyway.


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PostPosted: Wed May 05, 2021 8:49 am 
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Nardi wrote:
I'm completely fine with our corner outfielders. If you get Puig, then what, put Eaton in CF? BAD idea.

We can win the division with what we have.

Why not use Grandal as trade bait. You know he's going to cost us a game in the playoffs anyway.

Agreed. Grandal has to be traded...there's value there. Plenty of DH and I agree on corner outfielders. I'm ok with staying away from Puig, but they need another CF option.

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