Thursday, 2/28/19- Gulfstream Park, 8th Race

The morning line favorite is number 4, Storming My Way. He's a weak favorite and this is a bad morning line. He's never won at today's distance and in fact has only raced 8 panels twice in his life finishing seventh and tenth, both races being at Gulfstream. He should have an easy enough lead here, but I doubt he can take it all the way. So let's see if we can find some value.



Here are the horses sorted by speed figures at 8 furlongs in 2018:



As you can see the 3, Sanfilipo is regularly the fastest at the distance. But he's a Quadrant III circle and QIII circles win at only a 7.7% rate. Still, he figures to be a big price and is not impossible here. I will definitely use him in my gimmicks. But I think we will find the greatest value with the 7, King Wildcat:



He won at 8 furlongs on this course eleven months ago earning a B+ grade and a 77 fig. He definitely fits at this level and is projected to improve off his last where he stumbled at the start and still raced good enough to earn an 84 fig which is likely good enough to win today's race (85-79 range).

If we look at the plot, he is a QIV square, QIV squares win 10.8% of the time. The race figures to be moderately contentious on the front, though I believe Storming My Way will be out on front alone for awhile.

Depending on the odds at post time, I will be playing the 7 in gimmicks with 3 and 6. I will likely put the 3 on top on some tickets as well.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Using Rubes algorithm eh

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Are analytics ruining horse racing? Will there always be room for a shady guy in a trenchcoat who "knows a.thing about a horse" or will the Brian Kennys of horseracing have their cake and eat it too?

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Restrained myself from creating a JORRs rimshots thread.

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Where were all these charts on Fri Jul 07, 2017?

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

The horse we bet on ate them for a pre-race meal. I don't think that's why it died, though.

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Analytics have always been part of racing, Sini. It's a small margin game. The guy in the trenchcoat betting on a "steamer" is a loser, no doubt. He does, however, add color to the experience.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

JORR-Interesting stuff I'll say that I totally agree with you that the 4-Storming My Way will be vulnerable (and way over bet) but if they let him off too easy on the lead he'll be difficult. But you're right he can be beat. I think the 6-Eclipsed Moon is in the best form, winning his last two, on this track, at this distance. The first in Dec. breaking his maiden and doing it on the front end, then coming back last month to face winners for the first time and winning coming from way off the pace.

Not sure about your 7-King Wildcat or the 3-Sanfilipo. The 3 is stepping up and neither one is in particularly good form and they are both stretching out. In fact, going back and watching your guy 's last race (the 7) he did a very nice job of closing down at least three lengths, but the 5-One Fine Ride did even better. Not sure if I'll be wagering, but best of luck.

Also this Saturdays card looks quite good at GP. They've had some disappointing Stakes Days recently, but this looks promising (although the Fountain of Youth group seems to be in flux). Three hours will be televised on FS2.

Sini stick with shady guys...bar at the Grandstands at Hawthorne is a good start.In JORR little charts and graphs my friends would tell him to cut them into 5 x 5 sheets and wipe his ass with them

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Okay, Walt. I turned a profit last year and I have records to prove it. I'm also gonna bet that none of the guys at the bar at Hawthorne makes money betting horses. And I'm setting my line at 1/9.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Joe not so serious I'm glad you won money last year The DRF has more than enough info than I can digest! I hope everyone bets the pony is a winner.... lost about $2837.60 last year I play everyday and I enjoy It Nothing can take away the basement bar with Tony Skoronski, Racetrack Rosie, Benny the Bartender,Savy,Mario,Feldman, Siskel and tellers Richie L and Collins

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I agree, Walt! Those were the days. It's just not the same when you have 15 guys watching 15 different races from 15 different tracks. Forget about the money, is it really any fun for an owner, especially at some of these harness tracks, to win a big race and there are like 40 people on track and nobody gives a fuck? It's like the proverbial tree falling in the forest. They've fucked up a great game. Santa Anita and Aqueduct- five horses every race. It's a damn shame.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

3/2/2019- Gulfstream Park, 7th Race

This is an interesting race. I have always loved Holy Helena and she's clearly a player in here. I suspect McPeek won't have Eskimo Kisses screwed down tight off the long layoff.

So let's try 1, Danceland. She had all kinds of trouble in that last race. She plots very well in here and she should be closing like a freight train. She just needs a little pace to run at.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

These are cool, JORR. You should keep doing them. I might stop by the OTB today for kicks.

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I hope Walt Williams Neck is paying attention here.

I have been waiting for the 7-horse Robintakincharge to run back. I was live to him in a PK-3 on January 26 that would have resulted in a $10,000+ score for me. I was sure he was going to get an easy lead and improve off his previous effort. Unfortunately for me, he ran into Hidden Scroll that day. It's not reasonable to expect a Mott firster to run the way Scroll did that day. And I think if he had not been in the race I would have cashed my ticket. But luck is a big part of this game.



Here is the Plot for the race this Friday:



He looks to be forwardly placed once again, but this time it appears obvious that a fast and contentious pace is likely. Also, I think coming out of the Hidden Scroll race he is likely to be a short-priced favorite and a bad one at that. So, although it wasn't my original thought, it appears a better opportunity may present itself. And that opportunity is the 8, Graysshootingstar. He looks to have a perfect trip here in QII right behind the speed. Also, his fig in his bow was probably good enough to win this race and I expect him to be a little better.



He probably should be a strong favorite here but I suspect the 7 will take a lot of money due to the drop from MSW and coming out of the Hidden Scroll race. I'm open to betting either horse or making no bet at all depending on the odds as they go into the gate.

Never fall in love with a horse.

Finally, I know sini and Walt don't like analysis so I'll include a photo of Nathan Detroit:

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You look perfectly dressed for your aisle seat in row 15.

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Looks more like Nathans' Hot Dog

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

The shirt must be new. It still has its full compliment of buttons.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Damn JORR, I thought you had a live one there...he just hung, big time. I blindly bet $3 across the board on him without looking. Good race though.

I thought he should have dropped behind the 2, but he probably couldn't have caught him doing that.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

JORR is a stylish motherfucker I’ll give the old dog that at least.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

This horse was entered last Thursday but drew the 16 hole and did not make the gate. He is back in on Wednesday, April 10.

In his previous start at Gulfstream on March 7 he busted through the starting gate and ran about an eighth of a mile before he was caught by the outrider. Unbelievably, the rider got back on, they reloaded him in the gate and allowed him to race. At Gulfstream they don't even have a vet check out a horse after a gate incident. He made a giant move in the middle of the race before flattening out in the final furlong.

I would prefer the horse on turf and it would have been nice to have a bigger field, but I believe he will break his maiden here. Rusty Arnold is a real horseman, a Kentucky hardboot and Keeneland is his place. You can see that for whatever reasons the chemical cowboys can't do their thing as effectively at Keeneland as they can in Florida or at Monmouth. There are no Navarros or Servises to deal with here.

I expect Market Garden to step forward significantly in this race. But his last race was almost good enough to win here as it is, and that in spite of running an extra furlong prior to the actual race.



Horses win a little over 10% from his spot on the Plot which is just okay, but you can't really put much stock in the Plot when the horses are so lightly raced. We just don't have enough information to establish a truly accurate likely race shape. I expect him to be closer to the pace here than what the Plot suggests, but even if the Plot is accurate, I think he will be close enough in a short field to fire that big move at the right time.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That race goes a half furlong farther and your guy wins. I thought it was a nice ride by Mena on the winner in a good race. He pressed, made his move and kept everyone at bay down the stretch. Nice call though, I would never have looked at him (Market Garden) based on his first two races.

Yeah, I blamed Albarado in the other thread but I'm a little calmer now. It's tough coming from behind on dirt almost everywhere now.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don