So many horses entered they had to split this race into two different races, with Baffert having to break up Improbable and Game Winner. Does he sweep the "doubleheader"?

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I wonder if those fractional points will make a difference between getting in or out of the Derby this year (like the line being at two and a half). Probably not, but it's a good problem for Oaklawn.

I believe this was done because of cancellation of races at Santa Anita

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I think each of the Baffert horses would be logical choices. But as we’ve seen early on the Derby Trail nothing is a sure thing. In the first of the Rebel/Rebel (you've torn your dress) I think Improbable will be a beast to try to beat. I do have affection towards Long Range Toddy who keeps getting better and better. Galilean should set the pace, but Improbable gets the win.

In the second and I think more compelling Rebel/Rebel (your face is a mess), I think Game Winner will be the one to beat, but I like Omaha Beach and I think Gunmetal Grey might be the toughest horse on the trail. Omaha Beach/Gunmetal Grey/Game Winner.

JORR I know you follow Oaklawn, any of the locals intrigue you? (Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox or Our Braintrust).

And I really like Snapper Sinclair in the Essex.

I don't really like either Rebel as a betting race. Obviously, both Bafferts will be tough to beat. I wouldn't be shocked if Galilean sprang a mild upset but he's likely to be too short to bet into the face of Improbable. I think Laughing Fox could hit the exacta/trifecta in his heat and there may be some value there with him underneath.

I'm looking for a pace meltdown in the Essex. But races where the front really falls apart seem harder and harder to come by. Depending on the prices I may try Sonneteer or Hence.

A few horses to keep an eye on today:

Gulfstream Park 2nd: 6) Silver Wings Reven. He was scratched out of a slightly tougher race earlier this week. He probably should have won his last race but he had all kinds of trouble. I'm looking for him to wire this field.

Fairgrounds 4th: 4) Decant. Rider had to check him hard in his last out, he got pushed back and held up in traffic and was desperately trying to squeeze through late.

Tampa Bay 7th: 11) Buddy's Babe. This is a shitty maiden claimer, but I think the move to turf will help this horse (if it stays on turf). The pace figures to be hot and contentious. I'm hoping he can sit right behind it and pop late.

Good luck!

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Azeri :Tapa Tapa Tapa holds off late bid by Elate
Rebel 1Fuck Baffert
Essex Heavy Roller loved his last in the Soup
Rebel 2 Fuck Baffert

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Take Improbable and Game Winner in Rebels 1 and 2 and then fuhgeddaboudit.

In the Essex I'll go with Giant Expectations.

somedays you eat the bear, somedays the bear-fuck you bear

[img]today[/img]

wish i could display more CFMB editing skill, quoting myself, but i did hit the P4 at Oaklawn ...$32 turned into #1860...and hit the R9 exacta turning 16 into 99....Long Range Toddy and Omaha Beach fared well with the decline of Baffert's horses.

A very good day indeed. I made just 5 wagers totaling $88 and won just under 2K...

so if I could do that, 5 days a week, times 52 weeks...(falls asleep dreaming...)

Congrats.

Not a good day for the chalks on Saturday. I passed on both Rebel races, since the Baffert favorites would be at short odds. Close one in the Essex, but no cigar for Giant Expectations.

I did hit the exacta in the 3rd today at Parx at 21-1.

Nice economic work!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Hit with King Koa in the 4th, beating the 6-5 live odds fav., Hodor! Ran the race beautifully, cutting the corner.

Post Total Winning Est.
1 2 KING KOA 27.51%
2 7 GET THE W 18.79%
3 9 HODOR 15.12%
4 3 WE B JAMMIN 14.79%
5 5 QUALITY ASSET 10.45%
6 6 CHEDDAR CHUB 4.41%
7 8 TRY FLYING 4.16%
8 4 O'KRAM 3.47%
9 1 ADVENTIST 1.29%

After a couple of years with the Derby Trail being a fait accompli, I adore the fact that there is chaos (not KAOS). There will be some very intriguing options come the 1st weekend in May.