I won’t have time to process the Florida Derby the way I’d like to, but going off the grid with the grandkids at the ages of four and two with a brand new kite is a pretty good distraction. When I get back, I’ll be working from dawn on Saturday and probably won’t have a time to handicap.

That being said I’ve followed this Derby trail quite closely, and while I respect Hidden Scroll (very much), there is no better horse in this race than Bourbon War. Harvey Wallbanger had a hell of a run in the Holy Bull (and made me some cash) but I don’t think he’s going to get the trip he’d need again.

Servis’ horse Maximum Security and (I believe a JORR horse from earlier in the trail) Garter and Tie should deserve a look, as well as Shug’s Code of Honor. This prep has been a major indicator of the Kentucky Derby, so we should pay attention to its pace and outcome.

Keep in mind I’m saying this on Tuesday, and I honestly don’t have an idea of the pace breakdown, but the way Bourbon War finished the FoY, combined with his bloodlines makes me think he’ll end up best. If not Saturday, than perhaps on the 1st Saturday in May.

Good Luck!

A guy that's betting Hong Kong Wednesday Mornings . The race Saturday is The Dubai World Cup and Thunder Snow I've gotten over his Derby

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I do think the Derby winner is very likely to come out of this race. I am very high on Hidden Scroll. I believe he is the most talented horse I've seen in this crop. My only concern is whether or not he has the ability to rate. If he were in the hands of a lesser horseman I would be seriously worried about it, but I think Mott will have it figured out. Still, getting locked up in a duel with that longshot in just his second lifetime start probably didn't help him. I'm not saying it was Rosario's fault- shit happens- but that's undoubtedly why they made the rider change.

I have no idea what the prices might be on Saturday. I could see Hidden Scroll being 4/5 and I could see him perhaps not even being favored. It should be an interesting race.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The BRIS card is now up for the Florida Derby.

Initial thoughts: The stats favor Hidden Scroll, followed by Gartie and Tie, Code of Honor and Bourbon War. I don't like that Hidden Scroll's figs took a dip in his last race, which was due to a poor LP figure. Going in the wrong direction. Bourbon War is strongest in LP, followed by Maximum Security, who put up the 100 final figure in his last. Code of Honor is the class in this race in terms of money finishes and has the lowest risk, which is a good combination. The horses with the best speed progression are Harvey Wallbanger and Bodexpress. Probably worth taking a closer look at those two horses. I'll know more once I've watched them, but this race looks to be wide open.

I'm not going to overthink this one. It will between Bourbon War and Harvey Wallbanger. They're best suited to go the distance. While I think that Hidden Scroll is a fast horse who succumbed to a hot pace in the Fountain of Youth, I can't get over his 4th place finish behind horses that are in this race. Mentally, that's going to affect him negatively, as JORR is apt to talk about the psychology of horses with their herd mentality. I'd put Code of Honor ahead of him in 3rd and then Hidden Scroll 4th. His being sired by Hard Spun makes me want to believe he can do it, but I'm just not convinced that he can yet, having run only two races and regressed in his last.

Did Harvey Wallbanger get a great trip in the Holy Bull? Yes. But he kept coming and coming and ran down the horses ahead of and to the outside of him. I like the gritty, fighting spirit of that horse. And BTW, Harvey Wallbanger worked 4f, Mar 23rd, in 47.10 (b) finishing 1/99

Maximum Security is the wildcard in this race. The horse has speed and comes in undefeated, albeit against allowance competition. Tough one to call.

It appears the pace is likely to be slow and less than contentious.



However, the Plot fit is yellow which is less than strong and the fact that Derby points are on the line could mean that certain horses are unexpectedly going hell bent for leather. Bottom line, I wouldn't put too much stock in plot projections for a race like this.

Here are the PPs sorted by top figs in 2019:

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Everyone is forgetting about Garter and Tie. He has the fastest Brisnet speed fig in the field at 103, which he earned in the Smooth Air Stakes at GP in early Dec. It means, if nothing else, that he has the most potential speed in the race tomorrow. As much as we'd like to see it, the progression of these three-year old horses is not always linear and straight up. Garter and Tie is getting no respect on the M/L at 15-1 and could present a opportunity for a big cash-out. I've got an exponential model, which I put a lot of stock in, especially after some nice results at Oaklawn yesterday, that has him as the top choice with a 20% prob. to win, believe it or not. That means his fair value is not 15-1, rather 4-1 or 5-1. He's got two graded stakes wins in a field that has only three graded stakes winners. He broke his maiden in the 1st stakes win in the Florida Sire Affirmed in Sept. at 7f. All eight of his races have been at Gulfstream, so he's more used to the track than any horse. Garter and Tie has earned $287K to date, third to Code of Honor at $385K and after Harvey Wallbanger at $300K. His winning percentage adjusted for stakes is 13%, which without speed consideration puts him between 7-1 and 8-1.

This is the wise guy pick in the race, IMHO, but I like Harvey Wallbanger, too, with his heart of hearts.

Rube has made several valid points in this thread, not the least of which is Harvey Wallbanger’s heart. I was surprised to go back and look at that Holy Bull victory. I called that one and cashed in but thought, initially it was about the pace. He made up a lot of ground, but the splits weren’t that incredible. It wasn’t a gimmick win. I’ll look to include him towards the top, and going forward.

I still feel like Bourbon War has the best setup to win the Derby. But I don’t think he needs to be 1st or 2nd to gain an entry. That might affect the race, much like we saw with War of Will last week.

As much as I respect JORR’s OptiFx approach, I’m not sure it takes into account trainer intent (i.e. where is this horse at, and where do I want him to be by a certain date and how does THIS race fit into the equation). And I think that’s where it gets dicey, particularly this year.

Maximum Security could be an upset hopeful, although having never running this far. However I think the bloodlines might support this route attempt (at a huge price).

Hidden Scroll will show us, off the rail, what kind of horse he is. While I respect him, he’s the type of horse I look to profit from in this pari-mutuel world.

Current looks as though it might fit in well, but I am dead set against Garter and Tie (diminishing finishes in his last two) and Code of Honor, too, although I can’t say why necessarily.

Maximum Security /Harvey Wallbanger/ Bourbon War /Current/Hidden Scroll is the way I see it unfolding.


Also, I also love Belle Laura (I’ve gone on and on about her in previous posts) in the 6th (Sanibel Stakes)

And watch out going forward for anything trained by Pletcher.

Good Luck!

Just noticed this, too. Harvey Wallbanger has been working lights out since the Holy Bull, alternating between 4 and 5 furlongs, the last in a bullet :47 flat 4 furlongs, fastest of 100 workouts that day.

Like anything else, not one factor weighs over another, but this points out trainer intent.

I Like this horse going forward.

I think the way the pace figures to set up in this one it's a big advantage for Hidden Scroll.

Like I said, I think there's a good chance the Derby winner comes out of this race, specifically Hidden Scroll, Bourbon War, or Code of Honor. I don't think Hidden Scroll will have a problem at a buck and an eighth. A mile and a quarter may be stretching it. I'm sure Bourbon War will get that. Hidden Scroll's pedigree suggests he can too, but we'll see about the individual.

Finally, I really dislike Maximum Security in this spot. I think he's really pushing his distance limitations here. Also, I believe he lost a lot of weight after his last race. He figures to regress here. I won't be using him on any tickets.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Let's not forget that Audible was the Holy Bull winner last year, and he went on to win the Florida Derby. That bodes well for Harvey Wallbanger, this year's Holy Bull winner, who's coming into the race in top form based on his last workout. Audible won the Florida Derby from off the pace, which is how Harvey Wallbanger won the Holy Bull, albeit, getting a dream trip along the rail.

The problem with Bourbon War, if you look at the Fountain of Youth, is that it took him way too long to get wound up for his stretch run. Being 10 lengths back or more at the half mile is not going to get it done in this race, when it is to be expected with speed horses like Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security that there is going to be a pace. I don't know how Hidden Scroll will rate, even with the jockey change to Castellano.

Code of Honor is a very nice horse and deserves the respect he's getting at 3-1 on the Money Line. He did everything right to win the Fountain of Youth, with superb timing when he made his run. He also showed nimbleness in going from the rail to move to the outside of Hidden Scroll to get in the clear, who had better position on him at the rail. There is little doubt in my mind that he will hit the board.

Yes, OscarTangoEcho I understand your reservations about Garter and Tie and his regression in his last start, which was disappointing. However, in his previous four races, going back to his maiden win, he hit the board every time with two wins, a place and a show. I think he was just tired in the Holy Bull after running in three stakes races in three months. You can see it in his lackluster effort. He, like Harvey Wallbanger, are coming off a two-month lay-off. Coming off his last layoff, which was in December, Garter and Tie won with that 103 speed fig. That's why I like him in this spot, but the test of course will be the 1 1/8 mi distance.

And just to explain the 13% winning percentage that I cited for Garter and Tie, that does not mean he's won only 13% of his races. It's a probability figure based upon his money finishes compared to the money finishes of all the other horses combined. If you have two horses who are undefeated running in a two horse race, both their probabilities of winning are 50%. That's how the 13% figure is calculated, it's probabilistic based on weighted finishes for money earned.

JORR, any view on this Pletcher horse, Current, son of Curlin?

He's got the best trainer to have in this race, with Pletcher winning the Florida Derby four times in the last five years with Constitution (2014); Materiality (2015); Always Dreaming (2017), and Audible (2018).

I don't think he's a win contender here, but I'm going to use him underneath.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Anybody up early betting Dubai? Walt?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Maximum Security looks to be the Real Deal Holyfield, I mean like &*$# shit! I've been looking for video on him and found some in Bernier's preview found at the link below. You see him at 17:39. This was a 50K allowance at only 7f, but he just smoked the field. Looks like the horse has one gear, and that gear is fast. I think he absolutely deserves consideration. In my model with exponential smoothing, I have him 4th. And the only reason he is not higher, is because he doesn't have the earnings yet compared to the other horses, except Hidden Scroll. Otherwise, he'd be top three and is according to the speed est. I really can't argue with the model's selections, except Garter and Tie, which is a risky call but could be the gem coming off the lay-off. You could put Harvey Wallbanger higher, but I think it would be a mistake to rate Bourbon War higher. He's too slow in the early fractions.

Is Maximum Security the winner? If I were going off the video alone, I would say yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZfK8duq0h0

GARTER AND TIE 20.80%
HIDDEN SCROLL 16.45%
CODE OF HONOR 13.75%
MAXIMUM SECURITY 11.38%
BOURBON WAR 10.76%
HARVEY WALLBANGER 8.01%
BODEXPRESS 7.91%
CURRENT 4.71%
UNION'S DESTINY 3.44%
EVERFAST 2.49%
HARD BELLE 0.31%

Absolutely not. Too cheap. Too slow. Won't get the distance. There aren't enough drugs in Servis's tack trunk to get that rat home in this race. Toss.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Bernier's got a point: Highest Timeform rating of any of the horses in their last race. And Bodexpress is right below him.

Ignore Maximum Security at your own peril. I would rather take a chance on him than on Current, even with Pletcher as the trainer. Current would need to get a heck of a lot better to crack this field, by cracky!

Maximum Security is a pure runner, nuff said. And if you want to get lucky on the exotics, play Bodexpress underneath at 3rd or 4th.

Of course my man couple of Buicks Couple of Ortiz and now a couple of Japanese!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Thunder Snow 5-1

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Code of Honor could be the one who's too slow in this race. Bodexpress was faster in his last, with a higher LP figure. Plus, I like his breeding better as son of Bodemeister and grandson to Empire Maker.

Code of Honor has UK turf breeding as a son of Noble Mission.

Here are my four for exotics: Maximum Security, Hidden Scroll, Harvey Wallbanger, Bodexpress. But I will take a flier on Garter and Tie, too, as an alternate.

That's my final answer, Regis.

That bum made us sweat that one, Walt!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

won by a city block Nice odds could be a good day

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Race 7 Gulfstream Nonsensical Jersey Joe 6-1 jump on him

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Double
Soglio / Code of Honor...….JR stayed here instead of going to Dubai long day JORR

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I quit. This is a complete embarrassment.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I crushed it. Hit the winner, the place betting show, and the exacta twice.

Thank the Lord. And thanks to Bernier for his analysis.

It's a tough game for a square guy. These juice bums used to lie low and cash bets at Monmouth. Now they win graded stakes.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

GARTER AND TIE 20.80%
HIDDEN SCROLL 16.45%
CODE OF HONOR 13.75%
MAXIMUM SECURITY 11.38%
BOURBON WAR 10.76%
HARVEY WALLBANGER 8.01%
BODEXPRESS 7.91%
CURRENT 4.71%
UNION'S DESTINY 3.44%
EVERFAST 2.49%
HARD BELLE 0.31%

Know all I need is How in the fuck do you get A Maximum Security Bodexpress eacta out of this?

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

It was a combination of things. Those were the combined probabilities of the model, which takes into account simulation of speed figures done a certain way and winning percentage, adjusted for stakes. But, as I said with Maximum Security, he did not have the graded stakes starts which could have given him a higher winning percentage, so his combined probability was lower. In the end, I keyed on these figures, which was the speed side of the simulation. It tells a different story without the WP.

GARTER AND TIE 28.10%
HIDDEN SCROLL 25.10%
MAXIMUM SECURITY 19.20%
BODEXPRESS 14.60%
BOURBON WAR 9.00%
UNION'S DESTINY 2.60%
CODE OF HONOR 0.80%
HARVEY WALLBANGER 0.40%
EVERFAST 0.20%
CURRENT 0.00%
HARD BELLE 0.00%

Three of the top four horses above I had in my exotic picks, as I wrote in my last post before the race. I substituted Harvey Wallbanger for Garter and Tie in two exactas. In one I had Hidden Scroll, in the other, I didn't. The other factor was the Bernier video. I thought I was looking at the Florida Derby winner. Bernier liked Bodexpress, too, and so did I. And I liked his breeding. The Timeform figures angle that Bernier raised was also a strong argument, I thought.

I had Garter and Tie for place and show. He ended up running his heart out. Just wasn't made to go that distance. But he should be a good miler.