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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:12 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Maximum Security looks to be the Real Deal Holyfield, I mean like &*$# shit! I've been looking for video on him and found some in Bernier's preview found at the link below. You see him at 17:39. This was a 50K allowance at only 7f, but he just smoked the field. Looks like the horse has one gear, and that gear is fast. I think he absolutely deserves consideration. In my model with exponential smoothing, I have him 4th. And the only reason he is not higher, is because he doesn't have the earnings yet compared to the other horses, except Hidden Scroll. Otherwise, he'd be top three and is according to the speed est. I really can't argue with the model's selections, except Garter and Tie, which is a risky call but could be the gem coming off the lay-off. You could put Harvey Wallbanger higher, but I think it would be a mistake to rate Bourbon War higher. He's too slow in the early fractions.

Is Maximum Security the winner? If I were going off the video alone, I would say yes.


Absolutely not. Too cheap. Too slow. Won't get the distance. There aren't enough drugs in Servis's tack trunk to get that rat home in this race. Toss.


Bernier's got a point: Highest Timeform rating of any of the horses in their last race. And Bodexpress is right below him.

Ignore Maximum Security at your own peril. I would rather take a chance on him than on Current, even with Pletcher as the trainer. Current would need to get a heck of a lot better to crack this field, by cracky!

Maximum Security is a pure runner, nuff said. And if you want to get lucky on the exotics, play Bodexpress underneath at 3rd or 4th.


I told you here, Walt.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:31 pm 
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Nice work Rube. Don't quit JORR.

:D


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:07 am 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Maximum Security looks to be the Real Deal Holyfield, I mean like &*$# shit! I've been looking for video on him and found some in Bernier's preview found at the link below. You see him at 17:39. This was a 50K allowance at only 7f, but he just smoked the field. Looks like the horse has one gear, and that gear is fast. I think he absolutely deserves consideration. In my model with exponential smoothing, I have him 4th. And the only reason he is not higher, is because he doesn't have the earnings yet compared to the other horses, except Hidden Scroll. Otherwise, he'd be top three and is according to the speed est. I really can't argue with the model's selections, except Garter and Tie, which is a risky call but could be the gem coming off the lay-off. You could put Harvey Wallbanger higher, but I think it would be a mistake to rate Bourbon War higher. He's too slow in the early fractions.

Is Maximum Security the winner? If I were going off the video alone, I would say yes.


Absolutely not. Too cheap. Too slow. Won't get the distance. There aren't enough drugs in Servis's tack trunk to get that rat home in this race. Toss.


Bernier's got a point: Highest Timeform rating of any of the horses in their last race. And Bodexpress is right below him.

Ignore Maximum Security at your own peril. I would rather take a chance on him than on Current, even with Pletcher as the trainer. Current would need to get a heck of a lot better to crack this field, by cracky!

Maximum Security is a pure runner, nuff said. And if you want to get lucky on the exotics, play Bodexpress underneath at 3rd or 4th.


I told you here, Walt.

the same place JORR told me it wouldn't

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:35 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Maximum Security looks to be the Real Deal Holyfield, I mean like &*$# shit! I've been looking for video on him and found some in Bernier's preview found at the link below. You see him at 17:39. This was a 50K allowance at only 7f, but he just smoked the field. Looks like the horse has one gear, and that gear is fast. I think he absolutely deserves consideration. In my model with exponential smoothing, I have him 4th. And the only reason he is not higher, is because he doesn't have the earnings yet compared to the other horses, except Hidden Scroll. Otherwise, he'd be top three and is according to the speed est. I really can't argue with the model's selections, except Garter and Tie, which is a risky call but could be the gem coming off the lay-off. You could put Harvey Wallbanger higher, but I think it would be a mistake to rate Bourbon War higher. He's too slow in the early fractions.

Is Maximum Security the winner? If I were going off the video alone, I would say yes.


Absolutely not. Too cheap. Too slow. Won't get the distance. There aren't enough drugs in Servis's tack trunk to get that rat home in this race. Toss.


Bernier's got a point: Highest Timeform rating of any of the horses in their last race. And Bodexpress is right below him.

Ignore Maximum Security at your own peril. I would rather take a chance on him than on Current, even with Pletcher as the trainer. Current would need to get a heck of a lot better to crack this field, by cracky!

Maximum Security is a pure runner, nuff said. And if you want to get lucky on the exotics, play Bodexpress underneath at 3rd or 4th.


I told you here, Walt.

the same place JORR told me it wouldn't


This fucking Servis is embarrassing the game. It's pissing me off.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:49 am 
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Okay, I'm back. I don't get emotional about racing very often. I just think what happened yesterday was a travesty. And not just Maximum Security, but Restoring Hope as well. Anyway, I'm not sure what can be done about it unless guys just refuse to enter their horses in races with Servis/Navarro/Baffert. I think Monmouth is going to be a real shitshow.

Very disappointing race for Hidden Scroll. I understand the thinking that they wanted him to rate behind horses and if he can't do that, he probably can't win the Derby anyway. But from the rail in that race with the likely pace scenario and needing Derby points, I thought he had to be put on the engine. Whoever grabbed the lead was likely to win the race or minimally go a long way and be tough to pass. But whatever. Maybe the horse isn't as good as I thought. Or maybe he just had a bad day.

In the bigger picture, I'm not sure a square guy can win the Derby in 2019. But I think OTE may be correct about how good Bourbon War is. I'm rooting for Hennig in any case. That was a sneaky good race for BW in an impossible spot. If you noticed, Irad had him a little closer to the pace early than he had previously been. Of course, that rat was crawling up front. He was very willing in the stretch with minimal urging. Winning this race obviously wasn't paramount for them.

Finally, this shit with Servis reminds me of Oscar Barrera back in the 80s. I remember when Slew O' Gold was the best horse in training and Oscar nearly beat him with a cheap claimer. Here's an interesting read: https://www.pastthewire.com/the-greatest-show-on-dirt/

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:15 pm 
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When you think about it, the race result was pretty incredible.

An allowance horse who never had gone farther than 7f stepping up to beat G2 stakes winners in a premier G1 at 1 1/8 mi. And then a maiden with only two races finishing place.

The question now is what are Maximum Securities Kentucky Derby chances, when he wasn't even tested? They have to be pretty good. I read something interesting in a post-race article about him. He has "undisclosed" injuries. Whatever pain meds they gave him obviously worked.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:12 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
When you think about it, the race result was pretty incredible.

An allowance horse who never had gone farther than 7f stepping up to beat G2 stakes winners in a premier G1 at 1 1/8 mi. And then a maiden with only two races finishing place.

The question now is what are Maximum Securities Kentucky Derby chances, when he wasn't even tested? They have to be pretty good. I read something interesting in a post-race article about him. He has "undisclosed" injuries. Whatever pain meds they gave him obviously worked.



Once Maximum Security was on the lead by himself and they flashed the 1/4 time I knew he would be difficult to beat. I realize that the rail and likely race shape was a conundrum for Hidden Scroll's connections. They wanted to try to get the horse to rate, but they also needed to get some Derby points. I think they made the wrong call, but hindsight is always 20/20.

I've watched the race countless times and I have no doubt that Hidden Scroll was dispirited by Castellano grabbing him and forcing him in behind. I think the problem really goes back to the Fountain of Youth when he got hooked by that cheap Mejia horse. That was two races in a row where he was just allowed to go. I've trained enough horses to know that a lot of times when you let a horse just run away a couple times, that becomes all he wants to do. And my horses were standardbreds that are generally much calmer and less high strung than thoroughbreds. I hope he hasn't been ruined because I know he has loads of talent.

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