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PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 6:23 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod (Peace Be Upon Him) wrote:
Sedamar should have a big shot in the SA 6th. Playing the 3 and 5 in the 5th to her in Doubles

BAFFERTHU AKBAR, MY BROTHER! THE KAFFIR WILL SEE THE STREETS RUN RED WITH INFIDEL BLOOD!!!

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PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 10:45 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
War of Will.


I prefer Triumph of the.

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PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2019 9:11 am 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
It didn't take Arlington long to get started with their thievery. #3 Checotah in the 1st went off at 4-1, but by the 1st quarter was down to 2-1, because he came out leading.

I hate bleeping Arlington. The track wins if they make fair bets losing bets after the start. Why even bother?

Watch for #7 Little Christina in the 7th at GP.


This isn't an Arlington thing. There are nefarious operations that employ strong computers to game the system. They look for value within the pool and bet aggressively at the last minute and with large $ to affect the pool. It sucks.

It doesn't mean they are correct, either.

Ask JORR.


This is what I do, except the nefarious part. My program involves literally millions of calculations in simulation to identify value.

What was unusual about Checotah is that his SPD figures did not rate well. It was his component figures (e1, e2 and lp) that were strong. Only a very sophisticated algorithm that accounts for the underneath figures would have found value in him, which mine did. He was a fair bet at 4-1, but not at 2-1, where the odds settled. Of course, he got beat right at the wire. That's how my day went yesterday with close calls and horses with bad data winning.
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PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2019 12:12 pm 
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Five horses only in the Peter Pan at BEL? What the H?


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PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2019 10:22 pm 
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My Garter and Tie got second today.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 10:20 am 
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I changed my mind about this race.

I see Owendale being tied with Bodexpress for top, then Anothertwistoffate. You're better off with Anothertwistoffate over Signmalman because of the distance.

Owendale is coming off a peak performance, but is on the riskier side after flopping two races ago. Bodexpress has the best pedigree as son of Bodemeister and was 2nd best to the Kentucky Derby Winner in the Fla Derby. Anothertwistoffate has two place finishes in his last.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 7:02 am 
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i read a little blurb giving rise to warrior's charge but i don't know how much to put into that.

even though money mike is on improbable, it still just seems like there's a longshot of some kind that'll win.

alwaysmining will probably be bet down by saturday afternoon.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 7:24 am 
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Warrior's Charge is an interesting story. Marshall Gramm is a brilliant numbers guy/gambler. He's a good follow on Twitter: @truxtonstables. He must think that the chance of getting back the $150,000 is good enough.

Gamblers gamble:


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 9:35 am 
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it seems handicapping wise we have come full circle :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 10:06 am 
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From https://www.xpressbet.com/component/con ... ness-picks

Edzo wrote:
Pour the Bourbon
By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports Handicapper

Analysis: Flat-out, it’s disappointing that the Kentucky Derby top-3 (plus Maximum Security) are not here for the Preakness. But that’s horse racing, and we horseplayers know that you play the hand you’re dealt. What we got was a race that’s highly interesting to bet and a favorite, IMPROBABLE, who is not a lock like we see many years at Pimlico. Expect a quick pace as this does not look like a Preakness that will be won wire-to-wire. It sets up for a closer so long as we have a fast track.

Main Contenders: IMPROBABLE has had many opportunities to win this year and simply has not. As much as I respect Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, if IMPROBABLE wins, I lose. He’s slotted underneath for the exotics and can be expected to run his race. But he’ll have to prove to me that’s good enough. WAR OF WILL, stuck on the rail again, almost has to go early now. That’s going to quicken the pace that already looked quick enough. I expect IMPROBABLE to take money, WAR OF WILL to take money, and the local horse ALWAYSMINING probably will get bet, too, off his win streak.

Value Plays: The closers get the right set-up and should be the right price. I played BOURBON WAR and front-running BODEXPRESS in the Xpressbet Florida Derby and I’m still backing BOURBON WAR as the closer to beat in the Preakness. I like that BOURBON WAR now has had some time off, adds blinkers and his last work at XBTV.com impressed me. He’s got a great post to save ground with speed to his inside and outside. He’s the horse they all have to hold off at the end. His morning line may be too high at 12-1; I’d go in with both feet if he’s 12-1. But I’ll be happy with something between 6-1 and 8-1. The other closer to help the ticket would be WIN WIN WIN. He didn’t care for the slop at Churchill, but his Blue Grass showed off a big middle-move before hitting traffic and having to restart his rally.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

$45 Win and Place: BOURBON WAR ($90)
$5 Exacta Box: BOURBON WAR and WIN WIN WIN ($10)
Eddie's Picks

BOURBON WAR
WIN WIN WIN
IMPROBABLE
WAR OF WILL

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 11:08 am 
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It's a completely open race. No horse deserves odds below 5-1, even Improbable.

Signalman is top in my model (17% WP) and is certainly an interesting choice coming in fresh. He is said to have worked well at Churchill the last few weeks. He was third in G1 BCJ and 1st in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last year, along with having a 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass in April, when Win Win Win bested him at the wire for 2nd. His trainer said that more distance than the 1 1/8 mi. in the Blue Grass will suit him. Signalman is the most winning horse in the field along with Improbable. The money line at 30-1 doesn't do him justice at all and could provide a nice opportunity if he hits. I'll be playing him one way or another.

It will be Owendale, Bodexpress, Anothertwistoffate and Signalman for me.

Maybe Casse is right about his horse, War of Will, but he hasn't proven anything since the Risen Star. That was a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 12:12 pm 
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a retard wrote:
From https://www.xpressbet.com/component/con ... ness-picks

Edzo wrote:
Pour the Bourbon
By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports Handicapper

Analysis: Flat-out, it’s disappointing that the Kentucky Derby top-3 (plus Maximum Security) are not here for the Preakness. But that’s horse racing, and we horseplayers know that you play the hand you’re dealt. What we got was a race that’s highly interesting to bet and a favorite, IMPROBABLE, who is not a lock like we see many years at Pimlico. Expect a quick pace as this does not look like a Preakness that will be won wire-to-wire. It sets up for a closer so long as we have a fast track.

Main Contenders: IMPROBABLE has had many opportunities to win this year and simply has not. As much as I respect Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, if IMPROBABLE wins, I lose. He’s slotted underneath for the exotics and can be expected to run his race. But he’ll have to prove to me that’s good enough. WAR OF WILL, stuck on the rail again, almost has to go early now. That’s going to quicken the pace that already looked quick enough. I expect IMPROBABLE to take money, WAR OF WILL to take money, and the local horse ALWAYSMINING probably will get bet, too, off his win streak.

Value Plays: The closers get the right set-up and should be the right price. I played BOURBON WAR and front-running BODEXPRESS in the Xpressbet Florida Derby and I’m still backing BOURBON WAR as the closer to beat in the Preakness. I like that BOURBON WAR now has had some time off, adds blinkers and his last work at XBTV.com impressed me. He’s got a great post to save ground with speed to his inside and outside. He’s the horse they all have to hold off at the end. His morning line may be too high at 12-1; I’d go in with both feet if he’s 12-1. But I’ll be happy with something between 6-1 and 8-1. The other closer to help the ticket would be WIN WIN WIN. He didn’t care for the slop at Churchill, but his Blue Grass showed off a big middle-move before hitting traffic and having to restart his rally.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

$45 Win and Place: BOURBON WAR ($90)
$5 Exacta Box: BOURBON WAR and WIN WIN WIN ($10)
Eddie's Picks

BOURBON WAR
WIN WIN WIN
IMPROBABLE
WAR OF WILL


That's pretty much how I'm planning to go too. Baffert really has owned this race and I think even though he's playing coy, he's gonna have Improbable cranked for this. But I suspect the blinks will help keep Bourbon War a little closer than he has been and I expect him to be coming better than any of them at the end.

Also, I will be firing big time on In The Lee in the Gallorette.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 12:43 pm 
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Who you got, Walt?


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 1:12 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Who you got, Walt?

Owendale and Alwaysmining (anyone remember Alomas Ruler and Cowboy Jack? I didn't think so :lol: )

or the 8 horse :lol:

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Last edited by Walt Williams Neck on Fri May 17, 2019 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 1:14 pm 
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AlwaysMining for me. And yes, as everyone has said, he will not be 8-1 at post.....maybe 5-1 or even down to 9/2.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 1:18 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warrior's Charge is an interesting story. Marshall Gramm is a brilliant numbers guy/gambler. He's a good follow on Twitter: @truxtonstables. He must think that the chance of getting back the $150,000 is good enough.

Gamblers gamble:


I think Florent Geroux had his choice between WC and Owendale and he chose Owendale. That makes WC a toss for me.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 1:20 pm 
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spmack wrote:
I think Florent Geroux had his choice between WC and Owendale and he chose Owendale. That makes WC a toss for me.



Come on, spmack! These dipshit jockeys are wrong all the time. :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 2:15 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
spmack wrote:
I think Florent Geroux had his choice between WC and Owendale and he chose Owendale. That makes WC a toss for me.



Come on, spmack! These dipshit jockeys are wrong all the time. :lol:


:lol: :lol: that's true too.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 2:16 pm 
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spmack wrote:
AlwaysMining for me. And yes, as everyone has said, he will not be 8-1 at post.....maybe 5-1 or even down to 9/2.

Tim Wilkin just posted the early odds, and Alwaysmining is already bet down to 5-1. :lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 3:27 pm 
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The 8 and Castellano have been $$$$$$ today :wink:

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 3:38 pm 
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Man, the takeout at this place is brutal. I just canceled a couple bets.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 4:56 pm 
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The last DD was a refund.

This course is really in a bad state.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 5:02 pm 
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I got live in the BES/Preakness Double to Bodexpress and Win Win Win for 5 times each. I had bet the 8 with Bourbon War for 20 times but I canceled it because $26 just didn't seem like enough. I figured I might be able to deploy the money better tomorrow.

Here are a couple horses to watch for tomorrow. Both of them looked overloaded in their last out and were stuck behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. 13 Cause for Applause in the Belmont 9th and 7 Querelle in the Santa Anita 7th. I think Querelle wanted to climb over the horses in front of her and then got scared in tight quarters and gave up.

Good luck, boys!

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 8:42 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I got live in the BES/Preakness Double to Bodexpress and Win Win Win for 5 times each. I had bet the 8 with Bourbon War for 20 times but I canceled it because $26 just didn't seem like enough. I figured I might be able to deploy the money better tomorrow.

Here are a couple horses to watch for tomorrow. Both of them looked overloaded in their last out and were stuck behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. 13 Cause for Applause in the Belmont 9th and 7 Querelle in the Santa Anita 7th. I think Querelle wanted to climb over the horses in front of her and then got scared in tight quarters and gave up.

Good luck, boys!

got a double going with the 7 $72.60

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 8:49 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think Querelle wanted to climb over the horses in front of her and then got scared in tight quarters and gave up.

Serious question: are there horse psychologists at this level of the game to try and correct/ "coach" tendencies like what you described in the quote? Let is there just a point where you throw up your arms and exasperatedly bellow "[s/he] just doesn't have it" and then move the horse on down to the productive reproductive "stud farm" where s/he can hopefully do their part to ensure they have some proper thoroughbred offspring?

How much is a top/elite level horse worth nowadays? you reckon that value figures into the potential for any and all careers in horse psychology.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 9:21 pm 
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Here's the New York Times' picks:

Joe Drape’s win-place-show picks: Anothertwistafate, Owendale, Signalman

Melissa Hoppert’s picks: War of Will, Bourbon War, Improbable

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/16/spor ... picks.html

Joe stole my picks! Best news of all is sunny skies expected for tomorrow in MD!

I think the last time there wasn't rain for the Preakness was when Dale Roman's Shackleford won. That was in 2011.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 9:51 pm 
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sinicalypse wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think Querelle wanted to climb over the horses in front of her and then got scared in tight quarters and gave up.

Serious question: are there horse psychologists at this level of the game to try and correct/ "coach" tendencies like what you described in the quote? Let is there just a point where you throw up your arms and exasperatedly bellow "[s/he] just doesn't have it" and then move the horse on down to the productive reproductive "stud farm" where s/he can hopefully do their part to ensure they have some proper thoroughbred offspring?

How much is a top/elite level horse worth nowadays? you reckon that value figures into the potential for any and all careers in horse psychology.


Usually the trainer will use equipment to limit the horse's sensory perception to some degree, e.g. blinkers to limit the field of vision. In harness racing the Scandinavians have developed a blind that works like a Venetian blind. You keep it open and then pull it closed when you want the horse to go. The natural fear of the unknown predator motivates the animal. It works wonders the first time you put it on. It's earned the nickname, "Swedish gas".

If you're really interested in the way herds work and the natural tendencies of the horse within the environment of the herd, this guy is an interesting read:

https://www.thtbloodstock.com/

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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 11:41 am 
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Man do they pound the odds of the favorites down at Pimlico. Not giving any fair bets, like in the 5th.


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 11:47 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Man, the takeout at this place is brutal. I just canceled a couple bets.


Listen pal, it cost a lot of money to keep a palace like Pimlico looking this, uhm, nice.


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 11:56 am 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Man, the takeout at this place is brutal. I just canceled a couple bets.


Listen pal, it cost a lot of money to keep a palace like Pimlico looking this, uhm, nice.



Acacia was interviewing a female Army sergeant and I was waiting for the woman to say Pimlico is worse than Afghanistan.

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