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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:20 pm 
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This is like saying Babe Ruth ruined baseball with the home run. I mean, sure, if everyone could hit a baseball like Babe Ruth, then yeah, but.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:33 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
His Final Jeopardy bet was sound. He was losing by a few thousand dollars, and knew she would bet a substantial amount to stay ahead, so he needed her to miss the question. His bet ensured that he would stay above the other constestant and win if the leader got it wrong and he (James) got it right or wrong.


Glad to hear and not surprising based on what I've heard about dude's background that he applied proper gaming/wagering tactics when being in a close-to-first-but-way-ahead-of-3rd second place in Final Jeopardy. Haven't watched Jeopardy in years, but back when I did I would see too many 2nd-place-by-a-wide-margin ahead of 3rd but close to 1st Final Jeopardy contestants bet their entire nut; and then if it's a tough answer and all 3 get it wrong the 3rd place contestant going into Final can walk away the winner by not betting anything--which might be best bet in 3rd in those situations, depends on the category. But if you're in 3rd, chances are if you get it right one of the other 2 will as well; so you're only hope is it's a super-tough Final Jeopardy answer and the contestants in 1st and 2nd both bet everything or close to it and get it wrong and you bet 0/min amt and steal a W.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:36 pm 
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I could never get into all the wagering theory of Jeopardy, especially on Final. It's so much to think about on top of everything else you have to know. Just say "fuck it I'm goin' deep" and pray you know it, I say.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:45 pm 
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yeah, i imagine being in the game makes such calculations onerous so, yeah, fuck it, bet on yourself. All I've heard about this Holzhauer is that he was a vegas sharp and that he prepared for Jeopardy by reading K-8 textbooks in various subjects; which makes sense, except for some of the pop culture/modern history/politics/helped-to-have-been-there/lived-through-it categories, I'd have been a helluva lot better on Jeopardy in 9th grade than now.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:23 pm 
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When you audition for Jeopardy, they stress over and over that at this stage of the game it's not what you know so much as how engaging and likable you will appear on television, so be your most engaging self for those interviews that you all claim to fast-forward through. Who did they find? A probability robot whose only human attribute is an uncanny-valley wincing smile.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:19 pm 
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oh, wow, yeah, hadn't clocked Holzhauer before, but watching some youtube clips--spot on. these gambling sharps are always disappointing in person (e.g., Steve Fezzick, Steve Paddock et al). For some reason I was thinking Jeopardy winning James sported a hipster beard and OOC hair and had a somewhat engaging if douchey personality. Guess I should've expected a computer in human form.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:35 pm 
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To be fair his last post on 2+2 was asking for audition tips way back in 2012 so assuming he passed the test every year it clearly took the producers quite a while to relent and let him on.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:46 pm 
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He was on the American version of The Chase a few years ago and did pretty much the same thing he did on Jeopardy, except within the extremely contrived parameters of The Chase.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:48 pm 
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They want an engaging and likable guy who knows everything? Get me a book on Kings Of England named Richard and I'll make millions.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:50 pm 
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That's not the worst idea anyone's ever had. They really do ask way too many questions about the English monarchy.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:53 am 
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They should have a prime time battle against that guy whose record still stands. I won't watch that either but they should do it

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:54 pm 
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Commenter on deadspin suggests a 3 way tourney among Holzauer/Jennings and some guy I've never heard of named Brad Rutter. The latter sounds like a professional game-show contestant. The guy I was thinking of with the hipster look was a bartender from maybe last year. He seemed more like what you'd like to think of as a Jeopardy contestant. Someone really good at the game but casual about it. Not someone who takes the test every year for 7 years to get on the show and studies textbooks to prep. But then I guess everyone prolly does that to get on Jeopardy nowadays.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:34 pm 
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The 3rd contestant needs to be Watson, IBM’s computer thingy.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:40 pm 
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They did that already and Watson beat Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter.

Interesting note here to rebut the "Jeopardy is only for dying shut-ins" allegation: https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainme ... cy/591022/
Quote:
Whatever the goals of its players, the point of Jeopardy, as a TV show, is clearer: Its job is to attract viewers. In this regard, Holzhauer outperformed his competitors, too. About a month into his run, Jeopardy’s same-day viewership exceeded that of every other primetime show, giving the program its best weekly ratings in over a decade. And more recent figures indicate that Jeopardy’s ratings dropped to their usual levels during its annual Teachers’ Tournament in May, when Holzhauer wasn’t competing. (Jeopardy declined my request to interview a producer.)


Pretty impressive feat for first-run syndication. How many shows are even in first-run syndication anymore? Jeopardy, Wheel, Inside Edition, and various hot-celeb-gossip shows? (Now that last one is definitely for the dying.)

Hussra wrote:
The latter sounds like a professional game-show contestant. The guy I was thinking of with the hipster look was a bartender from maybe last year.

Austin Rogers, yeah. Some people found him annoying. I didn't get the big deal. Buzzy Cohen, now that dude was annoying.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:03 pm 
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Think any of 'em might be given the chance to replace Trebek, when the time comes? Jennings doesn't seem TV ready. Maybe they can coach him up.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:11 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Think any of 'em might be given the chance to replace Trebek, when the time comes? Jennings doesn't seem TV ready. Maybe they can coach him up.

Ed Helms has already been promised the job.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:17 pm 
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They should hold out for Ricky Gervais, and let Gervais pick the categories. Or Eddie Izzard, if he's not Prime Minister by then.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:20 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Think any of 'em might be given the chance to replace Trebek, when the time comes? Jennings doesn't seem TV ready. Maybe they can coach him up.

Fans said that about Buzzy. God no.

They don't really make game show hosts like they used to, partly because there are so many fewer game shows, but most of them came out of live radio, and that's gone too. People have suggest Marc Summers, but he's almost as old as Alex Trebek is.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:27 pm 
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Curious Hair wrote:
This is like saying Babe Ruth ruined baseball with the home run. I mean, sure, if everyone could hit a baseball like Babe Ruth, then yeah, but.


Babe Ruth had, or was written in the press to have had, a distinct and engaging personality. The automaton that was Jeopardy James doesn't, similar to most game theory/analytics guys imo. Makes it too like watching someone skilled playing video games. Leaving me just kind of flat.

Plus there's the loss of Trebek.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:49 am 
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In the meantime, it was the librarian who made the wrong play. She should have bet 0.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:58 am 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
This is like saying Babe Ruth ruined baseball with the home run. I mean, sure, if everyone could hit a baseball like Babe Ruth, then yeah, but.


Babe Ruth had, or was written in the press to have had, a distinct and engaging personality. The automaton that was Jeopardy James doesn't, similar to most game theory/analytics guys imo. Makes it too like watching someone skilled playing video games. Leaving me just kind of flat.

Plus there's the loss of Trebek.

Right, but my point is that theory alone doesn't cover the incredible hand-eye coordination he had to beat people on the buzzer every.single.time. His strategy falls to pieces if he alone can't sweep the bottom rows, which is what you'll see when people with more human reaction times are matched up and correct responses are more evenly distributed. Or people will think they can/must start at the 1000s, fuck up on the first clue, and start off at $-1000 while someone else controls the board.

As for Alex, I'm sure no one thought Art Fleming could ever be replaced by the white-afro guy from dopey High Rollers. The game can outlast him.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:59 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
In the meantime, it was the librarian who made the wrong play. She should have bet 0.


Would be interesting game theory. If she knew that he knew that she would bet x to stay ahead...but then what if he knew, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:03 am 
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Curious Hair wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
This is like saying Babe Ruth ruined baseball with the home run. I mean, sure, if everyone could hit a baseball like Babe Ruth, then yeah, but.


Babe Ruth had, or was written in the press to have had, a distinct and engaging personality. The automaton that was Jeopardy James doesn't, similar to most game theory/analytics guys imo. Makes it too like watching someone skilled playing video games. Leaving me just kind of flat.

Plus there's the loss of Trebek.

Right, but my point is that theory alone doesn't cover the incredible hand-eye coordination he had to beat people on the buzzer every.single.time. His strategy falls to pieces if he alone can't sweep the bottom rows, which is what you'll see when people with more human reaction times are matched up and correct responses are more evenly distributed. Or people will think they can/must start at the 1000s, fuck up on the first clue, and start off at $-1000 while someone else controls the board.

As for Alex, I'm sure no one thought Art Fleming could ever be replaced by the white-afro guy from dopey High Rollers. The game can outlast him.


James' loss illustrates that the game has essentially been solved and needs to be reconfigured. Both James and Emma got every question correct, and the only difference was Emma happened to find both DD in the second round (it looked like she was perilously close to missing the second one, but had an epiphany at the last second). The entire game has come down to the buzzer, since many of these contestants seem to have all the answers (James more than most).

I can't remember the Watson games...how did they work the buzzer?

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:12 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
This is like saying Babe Ruth ruined baseball with the home run. I mean, sure, if everyone could hit a baseball like Babe Ruth, then yeah, but.


Babe Ruth had, or was written in the press to have had, a distinct and engaging personality. The automaton that was Jeopardy James doesn't, similar to most game theory/analytics guys imo. Makes it too like watching someone skilled playing video games. Leaving me just kind of flat.

Plus there's the loss of Trebek.

Right, but my point is that theory alone doesn't cover the incredible hand-eye coordination he had to beat people on the buzzer every.single.time. His strategy falls to pieces if he alone can't sweep the bottom rows, which is what you'll see when people with more human reaction times are matched up and correct responses are more evenly distributed. Or people will think they can/must start at the 1000s, fuck up on the first clue, and start off at $-1000 while someone else controls the board.

As for Alex, I'm sure no one thought Art Fleming could ever be replaced by the white-afro guy from dopey High Rollers. The game can outlast him.


James' loss illustrates that the game has essentially been solved and needs to be reconfigured. Both James and Emma got every question correct, and the only difference was Emma happened to find both DD in the second round (it looked like she was perilously close to missing the second one, but had an epiphany at the last second). The entire game has come down to the buzzer, since many of these contestants seem to have all the answers (James more than most).

I can't remember the Watson games...how did they work the buzzer?


I think that this is a great point.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:14 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
I can't remember the Watson games...how did they work the buzzer?

https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-buzzer-f ... -advantage

Quote:
It gets down to human vs. computer reaction time to the light that signals that players can press the button. (After the host reads the question, a light signals the contestants that the button is armed so they all have the same start cue.) According to one literature review, the accepted figure for mean simple reaction times for college-age individuals for light stimuli is about 190 ms (0.19 sec). (You can test your reaction time to a traffic light change or dot color change.)

What about Watson? Its reaction time is just five to ten milliseconds, according to a white paper provided to me by IBM and written by Dr. David Ferrucci, who heads up the Watson computer design team. That’s a 38:1 advantage!

But wait — Ferrucci throws us a curve: “By anticipating and ‘timing the buzz,’ top players do not have to wait for the enable lights,” he reveals. “Rather, they start their neurons and muscles going well ahead of the very end of the clue.


But in practice, as we all remember, Watson had no trouble with buzzing in first.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:19 am 
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One solution might be to structure the clues so that the more useful hints come later and let players interrupt at the peril of answering with limited information. Quiz bowl, in other words, or Sale of the Century minus the opportunity to buy an armoire for five dollars.

Or just write tougher clues.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:45 am 
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Curious Hair wrote:
One solution might be to structure the clues so that the more useful hints come later and let players interrupt at the peril of answering with limited information. Quiz bowl, in other words, or Sale of the Century minus the opportunity to buy an armoire for five dollars.

Or just write tougher clues.


I wonder how much of the game's appeal is for the audience to feel smart by knowing at least some of the answers, vs just watching some know-it-alls compete with each other. My guess is they try not to be too difficult or arcane.

I like your first idea...kind of like Name That Tune.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:48 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
In the meantime, it was the librarian who made the wrong play. She should have bet 0.


Would be interesting game theory. If she knew that he knew that she would bet x to stay ahead...but then what if he knew, etc.


Her only two sensible plays were $0 since she should have known the way he would bet given his history (she couldn't have lost with a $0 bet) or all her money in order to maximize since Shakespeare was a specialty.

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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:52 am 
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Curious Hair wrote:
But in practice, as we all remember, Watson had no trouble with buzzing in first.


Watson ever ring in early and get locked out? If not, that shit's a lil too rigged in favor of the machine.


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 Post subject: Re: James Holzhauer
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:53 am 
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Curious Hair wrote:
One solution might be to structure the clues so that the more useful hints come later and let players interrupt at the peril of answering with limited information. Quiz bowl, in other words, or Sale of the Century minus the opportunity to buy an armoire for five dollars.

Or just write tougher clues.
An interesting twist, which could also suck, would be to let people choose their own daily doubles or to put 4 of them on the board in each round but only let a person get a max of 2 of them.

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