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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:55 am 
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don't worry guys. I'll pull out the snowblower and gas it up tonight. that will assure we get nothing but rain.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:15 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
don't worry guys. I'll pull out the snowblower and gas it up tonight. that will assure we get nothing but rain.

Exactly I will do the same. #resist

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:18 pm 
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Probably a good idea to salt the driveway tonight and tomorrow morning.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:31 pm 
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Will there be evacuation orders?

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:33 pm 
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move?

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:42 pm 
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Meh...that bad shit isn't coming until after I get home from work tomorrow. Throw salt down to get a base coat then wake up Saturday morning to get the ice and shit off the driveway so I can shovel all day.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:57 pm 
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Bigger problem could be half of us under water after the rain (or at least rapidly running sump pumps). Then the ice knocks out power.......


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:16 pm 
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Basically rain and ice out here. Can’t wait. Excited.


Last edited by Drunk Squirrel on Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:21 pm 
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0.1" of ice shouldn't pull power lines down.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:22 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
0.1" of ice shouldn't pull power lines down.

Let's assume it does.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:24 pm 
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Move?

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:25 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
doug - evergreen park wrote:
0.1" of ice shouldn't pull power lines down.

Let's assume it does.
Maybe the rines were crossed.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:25 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Move?

Ya know if you have a tankless water heater and the ice takes down the power lines you got no hot water but if you have a good ol fashioned atmospheric tank you got all the hot water you could want unless you have a teenage daughter.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:31 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
doug - evergreen park wrote:
Move?

Ya know if you have a tankless water heater and the ice takes down the power lines you got no hot water but if you have a good ol fashioned atmospheric tank you got all the hot water you could want unless you have a teenage daughter.


So what you're saying is we're all gonna die?

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:32 pm 
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sjboyd0137 wrote:
Darkside wrote:
doug - evergreen park wrote:
Move?

Ya know if you have a tankless water heater and the ice takes down the power lines you got no hot water but if you have a good ol fashioned atmospheric tank you got all the hot water you could want unless you have a teenage daughter.


So what you're saying is we're all gonna die?

I'd be lying if I said otherwise.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:43 pm 
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Quote:
Winter Storm Watch for Cook County, Illinois
From 3:00am CST, Sat Jan 11 until 3:00am CST, Sun Jan 12

Issued by: Chicago - IL, US, National Weather Service,

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN COOK COUNTY...

* WHAT...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COOK, NORTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY THEN CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY EVENING. TOTAL ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COOK. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN COOK. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
* WHERE...COOK, WILL, DUPAGE, LAKE, COUNTIES.
* WHEN...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. &&

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT..


Quote:
From 6:00pm CST, Fri Jan 10 until 6:00pm CST, Sat Jan 11

Issued by: Chicago - IL, US, National Weather Service,
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH

* WHAT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING, POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS, ALONG WITH RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA, WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND VERY RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* WHERE...IN ILLINOIS, COOK, DUPAGE, FORD, GRUNDY, IROQUOIS, KANKAKEE, KENDALL, LIVINGSTON, AND WILL COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST INDIANA, BENTON, JASPER, LAKE IN, NEWTON, AND PORTER COUNTIES.
* WHEN...FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...ROADS THROUGH LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POSSIBLE CLOSURES, INCLUDING VIADUCTS IN URBAN AREAS. BASEMENT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS. MAIN STEM RIVER, TRIBUTARY, AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FORECAST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:46 pm 
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Might want to avoid the beach for the next couple days.

Forecasting 12-16ft waves with the occasional 20 footer.

6"-11" is the current snow forecast for Saturday.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:57 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
doug - evergreen park wrote:
Move?

Ya know if you have a tankless water heater and the ice takes down the power lines you got no hot water but if you have a good ol fashioned atmospheric tank you got all the hot water you could want unless you have a teenage daughter.


Damn it.


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 am 
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Calling for up to .25 inches of ice tonight and 5-9 inches of snow tomorrow for SE WI.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:09 am 
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I am sure you guys have had similar weather a day ahead of me or so but this is an odd week. Yesterday began at 16 degrees with low wind chill. On way home from work 45. Today will get close to 60 tomorrow will be in 60s with high wind and rain. Then bam the freezer opens again. Just hate the wild swings sometimes.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:05 am 
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So now this looks to be more of a rain and ice event for most of the Chicago area. Lake and northern Cook could see 3-5" of snow. Kane and DeKalb and points west could be crippled with ice. 0.10" of ice makes roads nearly impassable, and 0.50" of ice will bring down tree limbs and power lines. Some forecasts are calling for 1" of ice ore more near the I-39 corridor. That is crippling.

Fortunately, whatever does fall should be GONE by Tues/Weds as temps will be near 40 both days.

I'm just hoping our basement doesn't flood too much. We're all stocked up with booze, firewood, and food for the weekend. If its as bad as they say it could be, I doubt we will leave the house all weekend.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:19 am 
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They're talking up to 2" of rain tonight and maybe 8" of snow tomorrow.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:21 am 
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Further proof that idiots like Skilling and his ilk have no fucking idea what they're actually talking about.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:28 am 
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sjboyd0137 wrote:
Further proof that idiots like Skilling and his ilk have no fucking idea what they're actually talking about.
Winter storms are tough. Literally one degree colder/warmer makes the difference between 2" of snow and 2" of rain, or 0.50" of rain and 10" of snow. The storm appears to be tracking a little further north and west then previously thought, which puts MANY of us in the warm sector of the storm. Hence the rain and ice.

There is still a chance the storm could track further south, and thus we would all get more snow.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:30 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
sjboyd0137 wrote:
Further proof that idiots like Skilling and his ilk have no fucking idea what they're actually talking about.
Winter storms are tough. Literally one degree colder/warmer makes the difference between 2" of snow and 2" of rain, or 0.50" of rain and 10" of snow. The storm appears to be tracking a little further north and west then previously thought, which puts MANY of us in the warm sector of the storm. Hence the rain and ice.

There is still a chance the storm could track further south, and thus we would all get more snow.


It seems to me like it's not just winter storms, though...they make these same wide ranging predictions in the summer, too.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:47 am 
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Glad I'm off until next Thursday.


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:49 am 
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If you're looking for meteorology to break down rain and snowfall to the exact tenth of an inch for each suburb, its likely never going to happen.

What the field has done is become incredibly accurate are predicting rain and snow events over a general area. During the 1967 blizzard, which ended up being the most snow Chicago had ever seen, there was basically no warning. It was 60 degrees a couple days before, and the forecast called for a 50% chance of maybe 4" of snow. After nearly two feet of snow fell, people ended up spending nights in schools, offices, and local taverns that didn't lose power. In the 2011, weathermen started predicting the potential for a huge storm a week, ten days in advance.

The same thing has happened with severe weather. Its still impossible to predict exactly when and where tornadoes will occur, but the technology and math has evolved to the point where weathermen can tell when a general area may be under the gun. Look at Fairdale back in 2015. Nobody could have known the exact town that would be hit, but there was a general consensus that conditions were nearly perfect that at least one strong tornado could hit northwest/north central IL that afternoon/evening. Same thing in November 2013 with Washington and Peoria. Even as recent as 15 years ago, people may have had four, five minutes warning for a tornado. Now they get 15 minutes notice on average. Gives people actual time to prepare and get to a building that can protect them.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:53 am 
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Frank dropping nolledge!

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:56 am 
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GoldenJet wrote:
Frank dropping nolledge!


he needs a weather related nickname to add to his collection
Frankie forecaster ?
Cold Front Constanza ?


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 am 
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Frankie Forecaster is a good one...

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