Confidence is only part of it - The larger problem is the very real issue surrounding trade, travel and other economic concerns. Apple can't make phones, airlines canceling flights, etc. This is negatively affecting any industry that does business with China.

Also, I'm not blaming Trump for this, but his first response during the recent presser was to blame Democrats for the stock market drop rather than the virus. That's just a really strange reaction when he is there to show leadership on the subject.

I think my career switch to corner apple salesman is going to work out well.

An issue democrats have appealing to the broader electorate is their cheerful rooting for economic detonation and the financial ruin of many because they are petulant about not winning an election. This is one sad, sad display.

Copy infringement yo!

You know this isn't just a democrat issue.

It is certainly more pronounced.

Positive economic numbers were fake until 2017. An HW like recession was predicted and prayed for in 2012. All sides own this type of stupidity.

It was never like this and you know it.

It was never like this and you know it.

Sorry. I’m just bummed because this board has a nice cross section of Americana. I’d like to get different POVs on the virus and the market. But it seems to just devolve into Trump bashing, which is not insightful but is boring. I could turn on MSNBC for that.

Because he's always worried about himself. Not understanding that just pretending to be presidential helps him.

Where the fuck did that 1200 point decline come from?

Somebody is shorting the market and making a fortune.

If you’re truly a long term person, then your investment plan should remain the same. Timing is just a fool’s game that leads to stress. By dollar cost averaging, you’re getting stocks on sale right now.

If you’re truly a long term person, then your investment plan should remain the same. Timing is just a fool’s game that leads to stress. By dollar cost averaging, you’re getting stocks on sale right now.

Are you stoned or pissed off, or both, when you create these postings?

Laurence Holmes is a fucking weirdo, a nerd in denial, and a wannabe. Not a very good radio host either.

Denis, is the world ending?

It'll hit 30k within 6 weeks

It'll hit 30k within 6 weeks

A Coronavirus Cure-All

Hello, this is Jeff DeMaso with the FFSA Vanguard Hotline for Thursday, February 27.

There are no changes recommended for any of our Model Portfolios.

How quickly things change. Last week, I talked about the stock market’s most recent record high—the 13th high of the year despite the growing spread of the coronavirus across two dozen countries. Well, that was then.

As of Wednesday night, the S&P 500 index has declined in each of the last five trading days—including declines of 3.4% and 3.0% on Monday and Tuesday, respectively—for a total drop of 8.0%. For what it’s worth, the S&P is on pace to extend that losing streak in today’s trading.

So, allow me to put both the 6.3%, 2-day decline we saw on Monday and Tuesday as well as the 8.0%, 5-day drop into perspective.

That 6.3%, 2-day decline ranks as the S&P 500’s 30th worst 2-day run since its March 1957 inception. And it’s been the 46th worst 5-day stretch for the index. So, despite a trying few days for investors and traders, investors have been through worse.

More to the point: If we look at those times when the index fell even harder, those periods tended to presage extraordinary buying opportunities.

Since its inception, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 2.0% gain over all 3-month rolling periods. But after the 29 times, the S&P fell more than 6.3% in two days, and the average 3-month return was 2.5%. The average 3-month gain following a 5-day drop of at least 8.0% was 6.9%. That’s what you call a nice rebound.

And the results are even better if you look out over 12 months with average gains of 19% to 20% following those near-term declines compared to the average of 8.3% over all rolling 12-month periods.



In sum, investors have been rewarded for staying the course through sharp declines or even, dare I say it, putting some cash to work during those declines.

One final stat for you—and you’ve heard this one from me before: In any given calendar year, 500 Index (VFIAX) averages a 13% or so decline. So, a drop of 8.0% isn’t even average. And remember, despite averaging an intra-year decline of 13%, 500 Index has compounded at nearly 11% a year over the last 36 years or so.



The spread of the coronoavirus could get worse before it gets better. And while it appears China is on the mend, we should expect to see infections rise outside of China. The virus is disrupting economic growth in the near-term, but no one knows what the lasting effects will be.

However, I’m confident that we will overcome the virus. It has been less than three months and drug-maker Moderna has created what it believes is a viable vaccine already. That is remarkable.

Stocks will be volatile. The economic data over the next few months will be noisy and will tell the tale of short-term disruption. But as long-term investors, market pullbacks present opportunity for us and the active managers we’ve relied upon to see us through prior market dislocations.

My advice: Behave accordingly. Don’t panic and sell out. Don’t spend your time fretting over the short-term but focus on the long. That’s a cure-all I can heartily recommend.

I read a couple newsletters. They help keep me grounded especially in times like this.

Yes, but sound advice doesn't make President Trump the villian.

Denis, is the world ending?

Are you stoned or pissed off, or both, when you create these postings?