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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:32 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
For some perspective, the Dow had been around 22,000 in January of last year. The dramatic drop over the last couple of weeks is indicative of how irrationally high the market had risen. Even a stock like Boeing, which has had every bit of bad news you can imagine, and is down 50% in the last year, is up over 25% over 5 years. I think there is still a lot of downside to come for stocks.


For sure, there was tons of fluff. But where do you put your money? What are the alternatives? Kohl’s is about to yield 10% with solid earnings and cash flow. At&t, which I have owned since it was sub 30, is back to a 6% yield. NWL is about to yield 7%. These companies have great cash flow.

Every part of me wants to dive into more of companies like this. And then some of the insurance stocks are just nuts. AiG is trading at half of book value. And airlines, look at AA.

Just wow. I’ll keep dollar cost averaging. I have yet to make any fresh trading plays.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:33 am 
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Where?

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:37 am 
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Well duh GJ, but after that. Remember I have enough money left over.....

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:41 am 
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Trading halted again to try and stem the losses.

Fucking liberals.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:55 am 
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I can’t believe the prices on some of these stocks. Maybe it’s time for some call options.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:57 am 
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denisdman wrote:
I can’t believe the prices on some of these stocks. Maybe it’s time for some call options.


I think you should be writing puts. Easy money.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 am 
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Time to step up and save the economy denis.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:04 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
denisdman wrote:
I can’t believe the prices on some of these stocks. Maybe it’s time for some call options.


I think you should be writing puts. Easy money.


Fuck no, if this snaps back, I don’t want that exposure. Now I could write them on stuff I own.....then I would be hedged.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:05 am 
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Caller Bob wrote:
Time to step up and save the economy denis.


Nah, we’re raising rates. Our line has had lots of emerging losses. And I could see the market disruptions causing lots more claims since we basically have exposure to stock trading.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:08 am 
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Fix this JP Dennis

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 am 
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Nas wrote:
Fix this JP Dennis


A Pulte home divided cannot stand!

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 am 
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Nas wrote:
Fix this JP Dennis


You and me Nas! Agent orange!

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 am 
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Telegram Sam wrote:
Nas wrote:
Fix this JP Dennis


A Pulte home divided cannot stand!


Life is better in a Pulte.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:33 am 
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There'll be up days when the stimulus package is revealed, Bernie drops out. But, not multiple big up days. BND was helping a bit gaining on the first leg of this bear market. Now BND is down 7 1/4% last 5 days not helping balanced funds. S & P 25% off 52 week high. I'm thinking at least down 40-50% before it's over. Shopify was exploding before this. It'll be a steal


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:35 am 
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Know a guy here with a pretty successful catering company. Essentially has zero revenue projected for the foreseeable future. Quite literally almost zero revenue scheduled for the next 2-3 months. Every catering contract he had has been cancelled.

The economic impacts from this aren't even beginning to be felt yet.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 am 
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One Post wrote:
Know a guy here with a pretty successful catering company. Essentially has zero revenue projected for the foreseeable future. Quite literally almost zero revenue scheduled for the next 2-3 months. Every catering contract he had has been cancelled.

The economic impacts from this aren't even beginning to be felt yet.


Yeah as you think this thing through, it is going to be rough. The multiplier impacts will be huge.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:56 am 
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denisdman wrote:
One Post wrote:
Know a guy here with a pretty successful catering company. Essentially has zero revenue projected for the foreseeable future. Quite literally almost zero revenue scheduled for the next 2-3 months. Every catering contract he had has been cancelled.

The economic impacts from this aren't even beginning to be felt yet.


Yeah as you think this thing through, it is going to be rough. The multiplier impacts will be huge.


The question is how much of that is baked in to prices already.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:03 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
denisdman wrote:
One Post wrote:
Know a guy here with a pretty successful catering company. Essentially has zero revenue projected for the foreseeable future. Quite literally almost zero revenue scheduled for the next 2-3 months. Every catering contract he had has been cancelled.

The economic impacts from this aren't even beginning to be felt yet.


Yeah as you think this thing through, it is going to be rough. The multiplier impacts will be huge.


The question is how much of that is baked in to prices already.


My point JB was different in that what the Dow trades at is one thing, but the actual dollars in the pockets of working Americans is completely different. If I'm fully employed and the Dow craters, who cares.

If I'm unemployed and the Dow is soaring it doesn't help me much because that won't help pay the house note. Capital markets vs. dollars in dollars out for the working American are two distinct different things.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:14 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
denisdman wrote:
One Post wrote:
Know a guy here with a pretty successful catering company. Essentially has zero revenue projected for the foreseeable future. Quite literally almost zero revenue scheduled for the next 2-3 months. Every catering contract he had has been cancelled.

The economic impacts from this aren't even beginning to be felt yet.
Yeah as you think this thing through, it is going to be rough. The multiplier impacts will be huge.
The question is how much of that is baked in to prices already.
He could always....cook the books, amirite?

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:48 am 
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I don't understand the out-sized amount of time talking about the payroll tax cut.

Pass it, fine, but it's hard to see how that measure will make any substantial impact.

For someone who sees no reduction in wages - it's just a 7% wage bump, but this guy doesn't need the money. And in this environment he's probably just putting it in the bank.

For someone who saw their wages reduced to 0 - there is no help here whatsoever.

For the guy who saw his wages reduced by 50% - this guy gets a 3% wage bump, so for all practical purposes there is little help here also.

It can't hurt in the current situation, but if anyone thinks this is a key part of an economic life raft, they are kidding themselves.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am 
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One Post wrote:
I don't understand the out-sized amount of time talking about the payroll tax cut.

Pass it, fine, but it's hard to see how that measure will make any substantial impact.

For someone who sees no reduction in wages - it's just a 7% wage bump, but this guy doesn't need the money. And in this environment he's probably just putting it in the bank.

For someone who saw their wages reduced to 0 - there is no help here whatsoever.

For the guy who saw his wages reduced by 50% - this guy gets a 3% wage bump, so for all practical purposes there is little help here also.

It can't hurt in the current situation, but if anyone thinks this is a key part of an economic life raft, they are kidding themselves.

I don't get the logic either.
Paid leave, I get. Other than that, who cares?


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:53 am 
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One Post wrote:
I don't understand the out-sized amount of time talking about the payroll tax cut.

Pass it, fine, but it's hard to see how that measure will make any substantial impact.

For someone who sees no reduction in wages - it's just a 7% wage bump, but this guy doesn't need the money. And in this environment he's probably just putting it in the bank.

For someone who saw their wages reduced to 0 - there is no help here whatsoever.

For the guy who saw his wages reduced by 50% - this guy gets a 3% wage bump, so for all practical purposes there is little help here also.

It can't hurt in the current situation, but if anyone thinks this is a key part of an economic life raft, they are kidding themselves.


It is a waste of resources, it will do more harm than good.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:55 am 
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Telegram Sam wrote:
One Post wrote:
I don't understand the out-sized amount of time talking about the payroll tax cut.

Pass it, fine, but it's hard to see how that measure will make any substantial impact.

For someone who sees no reduction in wages - it's just a 7% wage bump, but this guy doesn't need the money. And in this environment he's probably just putting it in the bank.

For someone who saw their wages reduced to 0 - there is no help here whatsoever.

For the guy who saw his wages reduced by 50% - this guy gets a 3% wage bump, so for all practical purposes there is little help here also.

It can't hurt in the current situation, but if anyone thinks this is a key part of an economic life raft, they are kidding themselves.


It is a waste of resources, it will do more harm than good.


Why do we all understand this and certain individuals do not?

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:55 am 
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You're right. The last three or four of you.

It seems to be only for Trump's own benefit, so that weeks down the road on the campaign trail he can say, "See? I cut taxes to give Americans more money during the Corona outbreak!"

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:07 am 
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As Nas noted it's a way of cratering the US Govt so social programs will need to slashed.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 am 
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Time for helicopter money. The Fed is already doing this in the fixed income markets. Just drop bills from the sky.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:17 am 
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Let’s be very clear, the politicians do not understand basic finance or economics. If they did, they would not create entitlements that are not actuarially sound. They would not run large budget deficits in flush economic times. They would not hand out essentially free money to the banks through low Fed Funds rates and the FHLB/Fannie Mae slush funds that underprice the risks of mortgage lending. They would not design such a complex income tax system that it is gamed all over the place. They would not let the Fed buy up (monetize) government debt and hold it for long periods of time. Or ethanol subsidies. Or the crop insurance program. Or many many other follies.

The entire system is fragile because we have made one silly mistake after another.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:51 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Let’s be very clear, the politicians do not understand basic finance or economics. If they did, they would not create entitlements that are not actuarially sound. They would not run large budget deficits in flush economic times. They would not hand out essentially free money to the banks through low Fed Funds rates and the FHLB/Fannie Mae slush funds that underprice the risks of mortgage lending. They would not design such a complex income tax system that it is gamed all over the place. They would not let the Fed buy up (monetize) government debt and hold it for long periods of time. Or ethanol subsidies. Or the crop insurance program. Or many many other follies.

The entire system is fragile because we have made one silly mistake after another.

Hey Doom. I'd like you to meet Gloom.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am 
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I am bullish on stuff. It’s just the folly of the way the system is set up. If the dollar became worthless, it wouldn’t shock me. But frankly, there is nothing any of us can do. So we play this game and hope the music doesn’t stop.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:03 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
I am bullish on stuff. It’s just the folly of the way the system is set up. If the dollar became worthless, it wouldn’t shock me. But frankly, there is nothing any of us can do. So we play this game and hope the music doesn’t stop.

The music has slowed to a crawl and people are outdoing each other to try and stop it altogether.

Talk about completely ignoring long term self interests. You're witnessing it right now.

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