A lot has been made of UA, AA and Delta's share buyback malfeasance but I am curious if the other carriers were more responsible. Spirit, Alaskan, Hawaiian, Jetblue...they were not stacking profits like the big carriers were and I dont know if there was any real way for them to build up enough to weather this storm. If they were doing the same things as the AA just on a smaller scale then by all means they should die too, but I have a feeling they were not.

Point is there's enough airlines operating in the USA to let this put UA, AA and Delta all out of business and for there to be capacity left over to provide enough to keep the utility side of the airline industry functioning through what is going to be a very lean few years. If they have the credit to borrow and aren't in the hopeless debt situation AA is in, the federal government should just guarantee them interest free loans. That'll let them build up widebody fleets (to my knowledge Hawaiian is the only one of these operating widebodies) and by the time the global economy is healthy enough to support mass-travel again, which may take a decade, it'll all be fine.

Fact is the United States is not a country that has a flag carrier it needs to keep in business. Obviously Australia will have to bailout Qantas Germany will bail out Lufthansa, etc. but the USA has plenty of spare airline that are a re-brand away from providing functionally the same service as the legacy carriers do.

I have come around to the thinking that the big carriers deserve death and we are going to experience such a massive lag in demand we aren't going to need the capacity they provide for a while. Besides, its not like their inventories, aircraft and rosters just disappear.

You have 100. You get OUT at 90(10% loss timing the market). Market crashes 50% doesn't involve me. I'm out at 90. Buy and holders experience the 50% crash. The 90 guy needs 10 to get to 100(11%). The buy and holders who went 100 to 50(50% loss) need 100% gain to from 50 back to the original 100. A 50% new vaccine bull (up) market gain only brings the buy and holders 50 to 75 (like Nas said).
Also, a lot of the wise money shorted the S & P(betting on it to go down) when they got out at 90(10% loss) so they made 23% (S & P down 33%) off it's high so far after they got out, and keeping their principal intact. Many many multi-millionaires are going to be made by people who got out early, shorted , then went long (betting on it to go up) when the virus vaccine arrives. Three times winners instead of buy and holders getting their ass kicked.

He did say that...and he's still confusing his math. His new baseline is 50. He uses the 50 baseline to make the percentages look better for the guy who got out at 90.

The guy who got out early is the only one who actually lost physical money.

Also, it's always easier hindsight being 20/20

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The airlines would merely reorganize under chapter 11. The point is to wipe out the equity holders and make all executive stock compensation worthless. They would exit with the debtholders in control. The markets need to be taught a lesson about aggressive balance sheets.

Frankly, the industry was in great shape as they had reduced competition and carved up hubs in such a way to be profitable. I would have more sympathy if they didn’t spend billions each on buybacks. It’s not about banning buybacks. It’s about letting companies fail after making poor financial decisions.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

Now I see why you buy and hold.

Demand isn't coming back to the airlines for another five years at the earliest. Fact is we dont need five thousand commercial jetliners right now, we dont even need half that. Three quarters of US travel is discretionary leisure travel and that wont be back at 2019 levels until 2030.

Keeping enough of the American aviation industry up to support business and government is essential, but that can be done by Southwest, JetBlue and Alaskan. Let Delta, AA and UA fail. No bailouts, no interest free loans. Let them all die.

Even Spirit can rebrand away from its contemptuous low-cost model and make a few changes to fill the gap as a full service airline. They may treat their passengers like shit but as a business I dont think they were nearly as reckless as UA and AA.

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Ridiculous.

I want people who are out of work to get money now, but this is just furthering the gap in the long run.

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$450b is not going to save these companies, so the idea that it'll just pay out executives and shareholders and they'll fold the companies anyways in August is actually pretty valid. Though nobody understands this legislation, its so convoluted and arcane there are maybe a few dozen people in the world qualified to make a judgment on it at this stage.

When Denis, who seems as knowledgeable on finances as anyone and is fairly partisan IMO tells us buy backs are bullshit, we should all agree.

Fuck this bailout bullshit.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

I will be extremely disappointed when it happens and it turns out that we learned nothing at all from 2008.

I would be fine with telling every company with more than 500 employees to go fuck themselves.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

There is a national security component to letting Boeing fail, though it probably should.

You and Senator-Professor Warren suddenly have a lot in common

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There are only two examples of infinity: The universe and human stupidity and I'm not sure about the universe.

Boeing should be nationalized. They had their shot at capitalism, and they fucked up.

The McDonnell Douglas merger really killed them.

Federalist Society Warren isn't so bad after all.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

I am not partisan at all. I am distinctly a small government person who believes in free trade and free and open markets. I debate solely on an intellectual level and treat people with opposing views with respect.

I call out poor decisions by government regardless of who is running the country.

Buyouts absolutely should be allowed. But if you choose to leverage out your balance sheet, please don’t come crying to the taxpayer when the inevitable hard times come. If executives are going to earn millions or tens of millions to create shareholder value, then they should be exposed when times get tough.

Buyouts are generally a waste of shareholder money. It is a company admitting they have no profitable endeavors to undertake. Plus they generally buy out shares when they are overvalued. Sad.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

Trump started speaking, Dow futures went limit down.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

It will bottom at 14K

12. After the 2nd spike, Nov or Dec.

That was a fun 3 minutes of trading until they hit the limit.

Futures have the S & P 36% off its high. It historically averages what +8% a year. Sample of what % gain will be needed to get back to it's all time high by possible losses.

-36%...+56%
-40%...+66%
-45%...+82%
-50%...+100%
-55%...+122%
-60%...+150%
-65%...+185%
-70%...+233%

You mean when the Dems blocked the stimulus bill right?

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Sherman remarked, "Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?" Grant looked up. "Yes," he replied, followed by a puff. "Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow, though."

You supported that bill?

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Futures roaring back

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this stimulus plan just sounds stupid. it's not enough money to help those with no safety net or savings. are there links to any economists that actually think this will help long term?