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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:19 am 
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We haven't seen the worse of the virus or the economy. I suspect that we're going to see unemployment numbers that we haven't seen in 100 years and an annual deficit that will make our heads explode.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:24 am 
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vitoscotti wrote:
denisdman wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
My brokerage and 401k are responding to the crash "we're here for you" if you need us. These are the same people who said to "stay the course, look big picture, dollar cost average". They constantly send out emails plugging their fee advisors. What would an advisor do if you signed up pre crash. Yes, increase stock exposure, then stay the course. One thing I've learned is to make my own financial decisions. Don't be afraid to pay taxes on profits, or make lateral tax deferred moves, or re-enter late.


That is the correct financial advice. If you manage your time horizons correctly and invest in a way that fits your risk appetite, then that is exactly what you should do.


2 guys have a million bucks each in cash One invests it all in the S & P 500 at it's high. A matter of weeks later covid -19 arrives. He's down 36%. His one million is now 640k. He stays the course and dollar cost averages. The other guy is worried about covid-19 and holds off investing in stock. He goes all in when there's a vaccine. Who's portfolio will be ahead?



A third guy buys a million in Bitcoin back on March 12 when the price was about $4900 USD. What do you think his portfolio will be worth in September?

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:27 am 
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Nardi wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
denisdman wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
My brokerage and 401k are responding to the crash "we're here for you" if you need us. These are the same people who said to "stay the course, look big picture, dollar cost average". They constantly send out emails plugging their fee advisors. What would an advisor do if you signed up pre crash. Yes, increase stock exposure, then stay the course. One thing I've learned is to make my own financial decisions. Don't be afraid to pay taxes on profits, or make lateral tax deferred moves, or re-enter late.


That is the correct financial advice. If you manage your time horizons correctly and invest in a way that fits your risk appetite, then that is exactly what you should do.


2 guys have a million bucks each in cash One invests it all in the S & P 500 at it's high. A matter of weeks later covid -19 arrives. He's down 36%. His one million is now 640k. He stays the course and dollar cost averages. The other guy is worried about covid-19 and holds off investing in stock. He goes all in when there's a vaccine. Who's portfolio will be ahead?

They're both fucked. It's back up to 23 and change. Get out now.


Well if you dollar cost average, you never buy at the high. If you just had one million in cash that you wanted to invest, I would recommend deploying $50,000 per month over 20 months. You never go all in or all out at once.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:43 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
denisdman wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
My brokerage and 401k are responding to the crash "we're here for you" if you need us. These are the same people who said to "stay the course, look big picture, dollar cost average". They constantly send out emails plugging their fee advisors. What would an advisor do if you signed up pre crash. Yes, increase stock exposure, then stay the course. One thing I've learned is to make my own financial decisions. Don't be afraid to pay taxes on profits, or make lateral tax deferred moves, or re-enter late.


That is the correct financial advice. If you manage your time horizons correctly and invest in a way that fits your risk appetite, then that is exactly what you should do.


2 guys have a million bucks each in cash One invests it all in the S & P 500 at it's high. A matter of weeks later covid -19 arrives. He's down 36%. His one million is now 640k. He stays the course and dollar cost averages. The other guy is worried about covid-19 and holds off investing in stock. He goes all in when there's a vaccine. Who's portfolio will be ahead?

They're both fucked. It's back up to 23 and change. Get out now.


Well if you dollar cost average, you never buy at the high. If you just had one million in cash that you wanted to invest, I would recommend deploying $50,000 per month over 20 months. You never go all in or all out at once.

We're in a leaky boat. You can't stop leaks with paper. We're in unchartered territory. Throw away your map and start thinking out of the box. Bitcoin, all of sudden, may seem viable. QE to infinity is not viable


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:20 pm 
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May crude oil futures have actually traded below zero today...no place to store the oil.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:39 pm 
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Wow

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:27 am 
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"V" market recoveries are rare. Lows will be retested.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:56 am 
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June will be totaled too.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:59 am 
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"V" Market was the name of the ill-timed brothel I was pitching to some Reno investors.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:01 am 
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Nardi wrote:
June will be totaled too.


June dropped $3 yesterday...and is down an additional $7+ today.

If you shorted June with any sort of size, you can retire this afternoon.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:04 am 
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GoldenJet wrote:
Nardi wrote:
June will be totaled too.


June dropped $3 yesterday...and is down an additional $7+ today.

If you shorted June with any sort of size, you can retire this afternoon.


If you are spending this time shorting in a crises, you should die of COVID.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:02 pm 
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Trying to find a way to stash about a million barrels for awhile.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:06 pm 
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Minooka Meatball wrote:
Trying to find a way to stash about a million barrels for awhile.

Yeah, I'm with you. Tankers and farmland. EPA isn't enforcing anything, right?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:35 pm 
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Checking my finances this morning, the retirement funds are within 10% of their all time peak. The non retirement stocks have largely recovered except for a certain crappy retailer....

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:45 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Checking my finances this morning, the retirement funds are within 10% of their all time peak. The non retirement stocks have largely recovered except for a certain crappy retailer....



Did you catch this epic Bitcoin run, Denni$?

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:52 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Checking my finances this morning, the retirement funds are within 10% of their all time peak. The non retirement stocks have largely recovered except for a certain crappy retailer....


tough to rationalize. GDP could be down 20% on the year.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:53 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Checking my finances this morning, the retirement funds are within 10% of their all time peak. The non retirement stocks have largely recovered except for a certain crappy retailer....


tough to rationalize. GDP could be down 20% on the year.



Everybody is high on legal weed and Tiger King. Get in there and BUY!

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:55 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
[

Everybody is high on legal weed and Tiger King. Get in there and BUY!


I'm sure there are reasons, but I just don't unnerstand them. The entire world is looking for a safe place to park money and US-housed and expecting-to-be-bailed-out-companies seem about as good a place as any.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:00 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
[

Everybody is high on legal weed and Tiger King. Get in there and BUY!


I'm sure there are reasons, but I just don't unnerstand them. The entire world is looking for a safe place to park money and US-housed and expecting-to-be-bailed-out-companies seem about as good a place as any.

Might have a month or two to GET THE HELL OUT!


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:02 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
[

Everybody is high on legal weed and Tiger King. Get in there and BUY!


I'm sure there are reasons, but I just don't unnerstand them. The entire world is looking for a safe place to park money and US-housed and expecting-to-be-bailed-out-companies seem about as good a place as any.

Might have a month or two to GET THE HELL OUT!


I'd rather go down with the ship than risk being the one who bailed out and then had to watch the ship sail away.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:05 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
[

Everybody is high on legal weed and Tiger King. Get in there and BUY!


I'm sure there are reasons, but I just don't unnerstand them. The entire world is looking for a safe place to park money and US-housed and expecting-to-be-bailed-out-companies seem about as good a place as any.

Might have a month or two to GET THE HELL OUT!


I'd rather go down with the ship than risk being the one who bailed out and then had to watch the ship sail away.

Just jump on JORR's bitcoin boat. It's going to blow by it's all time high within a month


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:06 pm 
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Keep an eye on Omaha.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:12 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keep an eye on Omaha.

He's buying Kroger, last I heard.


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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 9:03 am 
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The S & P 500 went from 36% off it's high to just 13% off it's high a couple of days ago. To make up that 23% loss it went up 34%. Now falling to 16% off it's high.


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PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2020 1:26 am 
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Talked to an older guy who was a boss of mine years back. He's riding out the stock market storm even though he's near his retirement goal age. He brought up a nest egg figure he was shooting for. Then said I guess I won't be hitting that goal figure. Even brought up sticking around his job to work part-time. Then braggs about his fee finance guy.. He told him every 10% the market goes down move money out of stocks into fixed. Never gave him guidances to go to cash early in the crisis. Now telling him to cash out on the way down. First a V, then U, now Fed chairman Powell saying an W economic recovery is asking a lot. He'll be working til he's 80.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 8:40 am 
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It's crazy, but the Nasdaq is now back to positive for the year.

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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 8:43 am 
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I guess the market cap weightings and strength of the biggest tech companies is really showing....

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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 8:45 am 
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denisdman wrote:
I guess the market cap weightings and strength of the biggest tech companies is really showing....


People that are long term like 401k stuff are going to regret if they did not stay the course with dollar cost averaging. IMHO.

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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 8:49 am 
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pittmike wrote:
denisdman wrote:
I guess the market cap weightings and strength of the biggest tech companies is really showing....


People that are long term like 401k stuff are going to regret if they did not stay the course with dollar cost averaging. IMHO.


Timing is so difficult. Over the long term, dollar cost averaging is the best bet. Nothing is guaranteed with investing. But by dollar cost averaging and sticking to your long term plan, you can sleep at night amid all the volatility. And if you do your calculations correctly and save as planned, you will hit your retirement goals with reasonable assumptions.

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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2020 8:57 am 
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It's absolutely wild the S&P 500 is at the same level as it was in August 2019. Boggles the mind.


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