Here we go! Race 1:

This year's crop of 2 year olds are just now rounding into fitness as Arlington starts carding their first 2yo races at six furlongs (a furlong is about a city block- there are 8 furlongs in a mile). Before I start on this one, a work of caution: 2yo races are probably the hardest to handicap because these horses are still developing, several have never raced, and those that have raced have done so only once or twice.

That being said, one horse stands out above all the others heading into this race: the 2, Big Al Cordes. The colt has already turned in two above par races, the last of which was probably good enough to win against most groups. He's been installed as the morningline favorite at 5/2, and that seems about fair against a group of question marks.

This is a pretty good group of 2yos though, and Big Al certainly isn't unbeatable. For one thing, there's a few pricey horses in this selection, although purchase price only correlates loosely with success. The 5, Bearable, ran a pretty OK race at Churchill and may be able to step up after adding Lasix; still, his workouts haven't been stellar on the polytrack. A couple of big-time trainers, Steve Asmussen and Bill Mott, have entered a total of three horses, none of which looks ready to hit the board just yet.

If you're looking for a longshot, I have two suggestions. The 1, His Greatness, turned in a bullet of a workout at 5 furlongs a month ago. His other workouts are not as good, but not bad; it seems like he's still trying to get the hang of the starting gate, although his most recent workout was a strong one, and it started from the gates. The other longshot, the 7, Kid Gusto, had turned in two poor efforts thus far, but the trainer knows what he's doing with 2yos (30% win percentage with an average return of $4.44 for every $2.00 bet). He's reentering him here at the maiden special weight level rather than waiting for a claiming race, so I'm inclined to give him another shot, if perhaps only at the bottom end of the exotics.

Leaning towards: $2 ex. 2/ 1-5-7

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Fire Phil Emery

This is a good group of 2 year old maiden claimers.

I like the 5 with Albarado in the irons, getting Lasix for the first time and being a 170K buy this past year at Keeneland.

For a longshot, I like the 4. They blew him out twice in the mornings over Arlignton and appear to have worked him solely from the gate after that where he threw up some good works. I love the 34 3/5 3 furlong workout on 6/27, as well as the 48 he came back with on 7/3. Also, watch out for the 8. Danzig horses tend to love the Arlington poly.

Race 2:

First turf race on the day, an allowance for non-winners of two races except maiden, starter allowance or claimer. Lots of intriguing picks. Here's the top few:

The 3, Loh Collado, is the model of consistency and his figured definitely put him within the range of possibility for this race. Hasn't shown anything exciting, and has been layed off for three months, so there are some question marks. I think the morningline odds of 3-1 is a little low; there are a lot of similar in this race, so I'd demand 5-1 or better at post time.
The 4, Candy Doll, is a shipper from Chile with South American Grade I credentials under his belt. He's been off for half a year now, and his works haven't been stellar, but he does add Lasix and may be the classiest horse of the bunch. Morning line says 5-1; I'd take it, although I want to take a look at him in the paddock. Watch the toteboard for clues.

The 1 and 1A look like bad bets to me, with the stronger of the group (positivelycharming) probably just stretching out for a future sprint but the 2 and 2B double-entry are likely to be favored at posttime. That's not because of the 2, Ric Rac, who's an also-ran compared to the others. The 2B, Love Handles, would at one time have demolished this field. This year has been a different story, as his speed figured have taken a precipitous drop. Still, he's had an excuse in each race; he was checked and rated in two of the three, costing him a chance at a move, while in the last race he rallied after going wide around the final turn but couldn't quite make it. The turf was also less-than-firm in each of those efforts. That being said, he will be breaking from the far outside and could easily be compromised once again if he's forced to go wide around both turns.

If you're looking for a longshot, the 9 (Summer Courtship) is intriguing as a filly that may like the distance, likes the turf, and could be ready to step up (the connections have also entered him in the 6th race, which is an ungraded stakes and much tougher, so they do expect a lot from her. Expect her to scratch from that one and race here, where 15/1 may be a tough generous.

Likely play- $10 win #4, ex box. 2/4 (depending upon price) $4

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Fire Phil Emery

That's why I hate 2yo horses, I can't argue with any of your logic, but between us we've recommended just about the whole field. It'll probably be a mostly sit out race for me I'm thinking.

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Fire Phil Emery

Typically the way to bet them is to look for a horse that gets pounded at the window and go with it. I hate that but more times than not, the money knows about the horse.

Race 3:

Another Maiden special weight, this one for 3yos and up fillies and mares and generally less classy than race one, but still a couple of OK horses and a couple of live longshots.

The 3, Blue Smoke Bess, is listed as the morning line favorite for this one, but I'm skeptical. True, he broke poorly last out, closed furiously from the outside and still posted a competitive speed figure in what was his first start. But there's no guarantee that a horse is going to improve her second time out, and she's been training like she's sore. I also don't understand the long, slow workouts for a 7f sprint; if anything, this filly needs more early zip, and nothing in the workout line would indicate that the trainer is attempting to add it. If she beats me as the favorite, so be it, but I'm looking elsewhere.

At 5-1, the 2, Great Squawk, looks like a good bet. His last speed figure towers over the rest of the field and he's repeatedly just missed against better. Plus, he likes the polytrack. Ok, now the bad; he's been layed off since last October. The fear is that perhaps he just needs the race to prepare for next out. But the workouts indicate that this filly can run at the same level as before, and I think that she has the added advantage of being a 4yo amongst lightly raced 3yos. But I want the m/l 5-1, or at least 7-2.

I just discounted the chances of the favored 2nd time starter, but I am intrigued by the other two 2nd timers; the 5 (Good Feeling) turned in a sporting effort despite bleeding halfway through. She adds lasix here, and that alone is worth the projected 10/1. William Fires (brother of jockey Earlie) isn't a high % trainer, but he does hit with longshots regularly enough to make him worth betting. The other 2nd timer, the 6 (Forward Miss) broke badly last time out, hit the board against similar and has been training forwardly for this one.

Two of the fillies I'm avoiding are the 4 (Tasley) and the 7 (Malibu Madam). The 4 is wildly inconsistent and I don't think her best effort is enough anyway. I'll pass. The 7 is a live firster according to the m/l, but I don't see it against this group. Just to be safe though- watch the pick 3 will/pays after race 2 and the DD payouts to get an idea of what the true odds of the 7 will be. I'm also avoiding the 9 (Sheltered), who has been tiring in all her races regardless of length even with advantageous rail trips.

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Fire Phil Emery

Race 4:

Our second turf race on the card, the ungraded Hatoof stakes for 3yo Fillies. Despite being a turf race, this one looks like it's going to have a furious pace, which means that any filly that does her best work from the front needs to be downgraded a bit; they all can't take the lead.

The morning line favorite, #7 Nijinsky Ballet, looks incredibly weak, having just run the effort of her young life in the Grade II Virginia Oaks and having lost to the very classy I Lost my Choo by 3 1/2 lengths. Still, the bettors were wary that day and she went off the board at 37-1 and has lost against some of the runners in this group before. She does have the advantage of doing her best work from off the pace, which will be a benefit in this field. I'd still be wary of a horse who's main selling point is a high speed figure against classier horses in a turf race, where inferior horses have a way of being carried along in the occasionally slow early fractions. She also benefitted from an optimal trip.

The #8, Three Graces, has already beaten Nijinsky Ballet twice and is projected to go off at 6-1, as opposed to 7-2. But this filly needs the front or something close to it; she'll be heavily compromised if she can't stay within a length or two of the front early, and of course the pace needs to be at most moderate. I don't think that either can be counted on.

The #4, Fabulous Babe, is the Vince Young of horses- she just seems to win, with 3 victories and 2 second place finishes in five starts, including having finished in front of Nijinsky Ballet in her last start. She also seems a bit more versatile than her counterparts, with some ability to rate off the pace, although she would like to stay near the front.

The #5, Pure Baby, needs the front as well and will fold if she doesn't get it. She'll also be compromised by a rough early pace. All the horses above are 6-1 or lower and all need the front, except for Nijinsky Ballet, who's the weakest of the group. I'd toss all of them except the #4, who is worth considering.

My choice, and my most confident pick thus far on the card, is the #11, Cavan Thunder. This filly does her best work from off the pace, and she'll have little company in the back of the field early. She came back a different horse after her 2yo campaign last year, posting a speed figure easily in line with the winners despite having to go all the way around the field on the final turn. She's a candidate for further improvement in this second start after the lengthy layoff. 8-1 is more than generous, and the exotic prices may be even more generous than that. The once concern is the #11 post, but with the 1 1/16 mile distance and the likelihood of several horses competing for the lead immediately, she should have little trouble moving in and finding a spot close to the rail before the first turn.

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Fire Phil Emery

wish they had it on TV, would be great

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

If you open an account at TwinSpires.com (formerly BrisBet.com), you can see free streaming video of the track. You also get points on your Twin Spires card for every bet you make and can get free handicapping products from BrisNet, provided you bet that track/day of the product downloaded. I highly recommend... of course, it is streaming video so it won't be as crystal clear as TV, but it will get you through the races before ESPN takes over.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

newper - are you going to be out there Saturday? IB, PU Rick and myself are going to try and meet up at some point.

The Beverly D. and Million will be on ESPN 2.

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Fire Phil Emery

Wish I could be, but I've got three kids to watch Saturday... I'll probably bet the card in the AM and then hope to catch the ESPN televised races live.

Keep going with your picks IB! I may look at the card tonight while I watch the Chiefs return some INTs.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Here's my quick take. I really need to look at the program more.

The 1 is the horse to beat. The horse was forwardly placed to a hot pace in her first lifetime start. Hung with them until the top of the lane was was still close to a good time. The 2 will need the start and is truly a one run horse who looks to want distance. This is a tightener for the next start. The 3 made a good late run against a similar class of horselast time out and may want more distance. Tasley had ran two good starts over Poly. I particularly like the last race where the horse settled down and was rated. Not sure what to make of the 5 - will improve over the last with lasix.The 6 ran in the same race as the 4 and 1 and was coming late. If the pace is quick here, she will be coming late. The 7 is a first timer who has a few good longer works, worth a look in the warmup. The 8 intrigues me. Turf to Poly angle. A closer who was coming late in the last two starts. The 9 is not my cup of tea either. The 10 I am tossing out despite pretty good works.

Right now, I'm leaning to Tasley to lay off the early pace set by the 1 and 9 and bring home the bacon.

I'm going to be playing the rolling pick 3's for race 2-4 with the following horses:

Race 2: 2/3/4/8
Race 3: 2/5/6/7
Race 4: 1/11

Which will cost $32, plus an extra 3-4/2-5-6-7/11 Pick 3 for $8 to make an even $40. I'm still staying away from the 4 in the 3rd race, who I don't trust and who's best seems too low if there's any improvement from any of the 1sters, or if the 2 runs true to form. The 2 may need the race, but the 1:01 from the gate two workouts ago assuages some of my fears. The 1, however, does worry me in that race, and I'm considering adding him to at least the smaller pick 3 to make it $10 instead of 8. I will be looking at the DD prices on 1 beforehand.

I also decided to cover my ass in race 3 with the first time starter, who may be live. Also, #1 in the four fits what I'm looking for- namely, a closer- and will inflate the prices tremendously if he comes in. Worth the risk, IMO

Race 5: A non-play in my book. Another 2yo race made up of mostly 1st timers. I may make a token play on #10, Oro Gatita, whose last effort was not bad considering the wide trip. She may appreciate the added distance, and her 4F on August 2nd was an absolute bullet. But I won't be playing much on this race.

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Fire Phil Emery

Race 6

Another ungraded stakes, the 50k Hatoof (are there two Hatoof stakes, run at identical distances for 3yo fillies? Hmm, that's odd.) The main question here is, can Cherokee Queen be beaten? She ran a disappointing sixth in the Grade III Virginia Oaks last back, but she does have a high-level N1X allowance under her belt and her time in the Virginia Oaks is easily competitive with this field. The morning line makes her 9/5, which sounds a bit high, but I can see her going off an that price. She can also win from off the pace, which is key in this race which will feature many fillies rushing to the front. If you think she'll win, there may be some lucrative trifecta and superfectas in this race.

Almost every other competitive horse really wants the front, much like the other Hatoof, the 4th race. The 6, Lucky Copy (6/1) may not need the front, but she'll want it and the distance appears to be a concern (question for you guys: given the obvious limitation of this horse, why won't the trainer do some longer works?) The 10, Tight Precision, ran a huge effort last out in the Grade III Iowa Oaks, finishing fourth and earning a monster figure. But she'll want the front. That being said, it doesn't appear she needs it; she's made decent middle and closing moves before. No turf record yet, but she won for fun at the 50K- N1X optional claiming level on Poly. I can't see her holding near the front to win this one though; the pace is going to be too furious early, but I do like her better than any of the others to hold on for the exotics.

If you're going to avoid Cherokee Run, look to the 1, Seemingly (9/2). She hasn't won past her maiden, but she's just missed a couple of times at higher N1X levels and hit the board in the ungraded American 1000 Guineas earlier this summer. She ran a bit worse last out, but don't look too far into it; she was the best horse in the field but couldn't find the room late. There doesn't look to be a whole bunch of live longshots in this race; despite the big field, this one really splits into a contender group and pretender group pretty clearly. I'm still not sure how I'm going to bet it, but here's one more piece of advice; Tizdejavu is the prohibitive favorite in the 8th. If you're going to play a Pick 3 involving the 8th, they pay better with the obvious horse singled late rather than singled early (I'll be playing the race 8-10 Pick 3 anyway because of the 250k guaranteed pool.) You can pare this race down to two or three horses, then hope for a price in race 7 (which I haven't looked at yet.)

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Fire Phil Emery

Race 7:

This one's a real tight race. The 7, Sebastian County, is probably the best of the group, but is by no means a sure thing. He's coming off an effort in the ungraded Iowa Derby that's only impressive if you look at the speed figure. He does have the advantage of doing his best work from off the pace, which will be best in a race that promises to set up with a fast pace.

Of the speed horses in the field, #3 St. Joe has the best chance to rate the field. He's won from the front on the poly before and his fractions in those races were more impressive than the other bullet horses. He appears to be all or nothing, however; either he'll take the lead and try to rate the field or fail and finish up the field. His effort in the Grade II Lexington is a good example; Keeneland's polytrack was uncharacteristically speed-favoring that day, with longshot Samba Rooster holding on for second after a vicious speed duel with St. Joe. St. Joe couldn't take advantage of the speed bias and finished ninth.

I'm inclined to punt on this one. I can make a case for every horse. With the presence of a strong favorite in the 6th and 8th, I'm inclined to play the Pick 3 and press the ALL button for this race.

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Fire Phil Emery

Race 8:

The first of the three Grade I highlighted races on the schedule, The Secretariat Stakes at a mile and a quarter for 3yo. With Gio Ponti deciding not to make the trip, the 6, Tizdejavu, looks to be the best in the race by far and has been assigned a morning line of 6/5. I don't know if you'll be so lucky at posttime. Tizdejavu is going to look to wire the field, which is a tough task for a turfer at the classic, but distance should be no trouble for him. He's likely to face some early pace pressure from the 9, Secret Getaway, although not enough to keep Tizdejavu off the lead. If Tizdejavu gets a couple of lengths early with a rail trip around the first turn, it could be over.

The almost certain second favorite, #3 Plan, is a huge question mark. With no American races to date there simply is no direct comparison to be made between the invader and the others (the #2, Winchester, also has no American races but isn't as good as Plan or Tizdejavu). Racing post ratings are inherently suspect, but his score of 113+ makes him competitive with Tisdejavu; his other scores, however, do not. Also, despite the high RPR earned in the International Stakes, the time definitely left something to be desired; European turf racing isn't immenable to speed ratings, but 1:56.8 for 9 furlongs is incredibly pedestrian and a full 3 seconds below previous winners of that race at 9 furlongs (the race distance has changed over the years.) I may end up with egg on my face, and I can't research this as fully as I'd like, but Plan is a complete toss for me (if anyone has any video of these races, I'd appreciate it).

Once you toss Plan, this race looks like a walkover in every sense of the word. No other horse has won any graded stakes race (the #9, Secret Getaway, does have a couple of ungraded stakes under his belt; Tizdejavu has won a Grade III and two Grade II races in his past three starts.) If you're going to play vertical gimmicks, I'd put the #1, Prime Realestate, underneath Tizdejavu; you'll get a decent price, and his weak last effort can be attributed to the layoff. He needed that one, and he could win the race for second here.

I'll be singling Tizdejavu in a few Pick 3s and will play a 7/1/All half-tri partial wheel.

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Fire Phil Emery

Good analysis but I love ST Joe in this spot. There is no one that can run with him in the early going and he'll show them all the way home.
Just to add here. St Joe on top of Amazing Results, Noble Hero and Sebastain County.

I like the 7 on the bottom. He's the only other horse to hit the board in a graded stake and was good enough to go to the BC Juv Turf last year. I'll be going 6/7/all.

That could very well be; I think he's the 4th choice on the morning line at 9/2, but he has the best early zip. He's proven he can do it from the front on the poly, but he needs to be all alone. The 7 could, but even in the race were he wired the field, his fractions weren't as sharp as St. Joe's. The 4 will go to the front as well, but I know who I'm betting on in a battle of the wits between Randy Meier and Rene Douglas.

I'll still hit the all for the pick 3 because I'm singling horses in the 6th and 8th. I think I'm leaning towards St. Joe though as well.

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Fire Phil Emery

4th race: Don't like the race much, but I'm looking at the 10 South Beach luv. Had a great close last time against winners. Had a ton of trouble in the race at Canterbury. Looks faster than the 11.

For that tri-wheel I obviously meant 6/1/ALL. Oops on my part.

If he runs to his figure in the VA derby, he's definitely a possibility. I think the VA derby is being rated a bit too highly, and the 7s 4th place finish was more a result of passing tired horses than anything else. Gio Ponti would have made this a race, but I think I'd still be leaning towards Tizdejavu.

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Fire Phil Emery

I'll have more time tomorrow and tomorrow night to look and will post a run down on my picks. I actually will be spending time now on Calder and LA downs to have something to do in between races.

Here's the 11 in race 4 last out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5m4sveofRKs

He's the third horse. He's a different horse since the layoff. The late move is truly amazing.

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Fire Phil Emery

Nice close. It was still maidens

True. You've got me worried about the 10 now. I figured I had that race covered with the 11 and the 1 from a closer POV. I don't want to spend $60 on the pick 3. Hmmm. I'll have to sleep on this one.

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Fire Phil Emery

Will do races 9 and 10, and possibly 11 and 12 tomorrow. I may skip the last two on the card. Not sure yet. I'm pretty mentally spent already and I've got the two big ones left to look at (I know where I'm leaning with one, no clue on the other.)

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Fire Phil Emery

I've been following the ponies for 40 odd years( the problem is the horses I follow usually follow other horses!)
Race 1 Uno Mas Asmussen 1st starter good as any: works not that bad
Race 2 Candy Doll Razo and Amoss not crazy about the Chile races lets get the DD
Race 3 Altra Rail the 10 blazing works and and Rafie the outside post worries me, but sometimes can be a plus staying clear of the bs. at the break.
Race 4 Faboulus Babe four races 2 wins 2 places
Race 5 Four Gifts been working since May?????? If this isn't the right spot what the hell is Steve???
Race 6 Seemingly a bit off trouble and drooping 5 lbs and Albarado on the rail.
Race 7 Saint Joe speed kill$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and Sebastion County
has only one win this year at Oaklawn at a mile in a time of 1.37 not eye popping
Race 8 Tizdejavu speed kills part II
Race 9 Mauralanka way too much speed on the front end closing like a frieght train!
Race 10 Cloudys Knight horses for course and 3 race off a layoff earned over a milldough
last year. Like the one pony but not at those odds!
Race 11 Probably be broke as a mo'fo' just hoping to have enough money left for one more barley pop!

Good Luck and Good Racing

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

the corn variety?

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Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

My problem too.