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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:19 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm sure this stuff is all recorded and categorized on Fangraphs, I don't know for sure, but what I'm going to say is strictly anecdotal and comes from me watching most of Buehrle's starts throughout his career. Buehrle didn't really throw a curveball. He was a "fast"ball, changeup, cutter guy. But I specifically remember watching a close game where it was the eighth inning and Buehrle was in a tough spot with men on. The game was in the balance. (Here's where Jose Quintana would have given up a double off the wall and lost 3-2 due to a lack of "run support".) He was facing a middle of the order guy for the fourth time in the game. I don't remember who but it was a real hitter. It was a full count and the guy was fouling off pitch after pitch. And suddenly out of nowhere without previously having thrown a single curveball in the entire game Buehrle dropped Uncle Charlie on him for strike three. That's a fucking pitcher.
A fucking pitcher indeed.

I remember watching him when the Sox were sweeping the O's over 4 games in Baltimore shortly after the ASB in 2005. It was the final game of the series, either Sunday afternoon or the wraparound Monday game, and it was one of the first games Rafeal Palmeiro was missing due to testing positive for PEDs. The Sox had a few of their guys HBP that series, and another couple were hit that day. Iguchi for sure I remember was thrown at on purpose. Anybody else may have charged the mound. Close game, two out, noboby on, bottom of the 5th, Buehrle plunks somebody and immediately gets the heave ho. Ozzie flips out and he gets thrown out as well. Buehrle had gone something like 25 consecutive starts throwing at least six innings, and that streak ended with the ejection. Even though his 87mph fastball would barely leave a bruise on the batter, Mark did what he felt he had to do in order to stick up for his teammates.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:21 am 
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312player wrote:
Cone and Kevin Brown were better, Saberhagen as well.. He's not even as good as the best non hall guys.

You are correct. Very very solid and remarkably consistent. But not HOF great.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:24 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Here's the funny thing for people who actually believe W/L record is "meaningless". If you look at almost every other number, Jose Quintana is better than Buehrle. I'm sure there are mentally deranged amateur GMs who would argue that Quintana was obviously better but simply lacked "run support". :lol:


Quintana has absolutely sucked the last 4 years, not sure what changed but you could cit his career in half.. One is good and one is bad.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:26 am 
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312player wrote:
Quintana has absolutely sucked the last 4 years, not sure what changed
His uniform :D

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:49 am 
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Crick Ramp wrote:
312player wrote:
Cone and Kevin Brown were better, Saberhagen as well.. He's not even as good as the best non hall guys.

You are correct. Very very solid and remarkably consistent. But not HOF great.


If Roy Halladay is a HOFer so is Kevin Brown.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:59 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Crick Ramp wrote:
312player wrote:
Cone and Kevin Brown were better, Saberhagen as well.. He's not even as good as the best non hall guys.

You are correct. Very very solid and remarkably consistent. But not HOF great.


If Roy Halladay is a HOFer so is Kevin Brown.

Kevin brown is an interesting case.

I think Halladay was better. But Brown is underrated


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:04 pm 
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Brown was great for a 5 year stretch that included a sub-2 ERA title, a World Series championship, and basically pitching the Padres to the NL pennant. He capped it of with another ERA title. He moved around a lot though, and he was a late bloomer. Still was very good until he turned 40.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:05 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
He had a really cool career (no hitter, perfect game, world series title, save in the world series) but having watched his entire career, I never thought I was watching a Hall of Famer. How many years would you say he was even a true number one starter? According to the article, he actually is ahead of several starters from a WAR standpoint:

His 59.1 career WAR is 69th among starting pitchers, 14.2 WAR below the standard, and ahead of just 19 of the 65 enshrinees, only six of whom were elected by the BBWAA. Four of those were elected despite short careers (Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter, Sandy Koufax, Bob Lemon), but had other things going for them including stellar postseason work and better Hall of Fame Monitor scores, as did the longer-lasting Whitey Ford (whose bWAR is curiously low) and Herb Pennock.



Catfish Hunter is a really good comp for him. And frankly, Catfish is a questionable Hall of Famer himself. If we're using the terminology "Number One Starter" or "Ace" I would say Buehrle was a "Number Two Deluxe".

But I do think the way pitchers are now being used, that Buehrle's durability and skillset will be more appreciated by the writers/voters than they would have been twenty years ago.

Blowing hitters away with "filthy stuff" is fun to watch, but when you can only get through the lineup twice without falling apart, it's tough to say you're better than Buehrle.

I'm sure this stuff is all recorded and categorized on Fangraphs, I don't know for sure, but what I'm going to say is strictly anecdotal and comes from me watching most of Buehrle's starts throughout his career. Buehrle didn't really throw a curveball. He was a "fast"ball, changeup, cutter guy. But I specifically remember watching a close game where it was the eighth inning and Buehrle was in a tough spot with men on. The game was in the balance. (Here's where Jose Quintana would have given up a double off the wall and lost 3-2 due to a lack of "run support".) He was facing a middle of the order guy for the fourth time in the game. I don't remember who but it was a real hitter. It was a full count and the guy was fouling off pitch after pitch. And suddenly out of nowhere without previously having thrown a single curveball in the entire game Buehrle dropped Uncle Charlie on him for strike three. That's a fucking pitcher.

Aw shucks, JORR. Catch puts down the fingers and I throw the ball.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:26 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Here's the funny thing for people who actually believe W/L record is "meaningless". If you look at almost every other number, Jose Quintana is better than Buehrle. I'm sure there are mentally deranged amateur GMs who would argue that Quintana was obviously better but simply lacked "run support". :lol:


Not sure what numbers are really all that remarkable better for Quintana?

ERA: Quintana 3.73, Buehrle 3.81
ERA+: Quintana 110, Buehrle 117
K/9: Quintana 7.9, Buehrle 5.1
BB/9: Quintana 2.5, Buehrle 2.0
WHIP: Quintana 1.26, Buehrle 1.28
HR/9: Quintana .9, Buehrle 1.0

I don't know anyone who would look at those numbers and say that based on that Quintana was better than Buehrle regardless of how much they like or dislike pitcher wins. This says nothing to the fact that Buehrle has more than 2x the number of innings pitched compared to Quintana.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:32 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Crick Ramp wrote:
312player wrote:
Cone and Kevin Brown were better, Saberhagen as well.. He's not even as good as the best non hall guys.

You are correct. Very very solid and remarkably consistent. But not HOF great.


If Roy Halladay is a HOFer so is Kevin Brown.

Halladay, yes. Kevin Brown, probably. Of course, the next step after that would be to let Kenny Rogers in, too.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:40 pm 
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There was another article in the fangraphs piece that discussed this, and also a great piece on Grantland that talked about Buehrle being arguably the best SP in history at both (a) controlling the running game/baserunning, and (b) fielding his position.

He wasn't just good at both of those, he was arguably the best SP (with guys of a career of any duration) at each of those things. Both of those things, the running game especially, are difficult to capture statistically.

The running game thing in particular is almost impossible to measure, and incredibly important. Obviously there was no base stealing on Buehrle, or it was a suicide mission if someone attempted. But moreso, guys were scared shitless to even take secondary leads. There are instances of runners who weren't even trying to steal a base getting picked off by Buehrle. So anyone on base, especially first base, was essentially standing 2 fucking feet from the bag on every pitch. No runners were taking off on 3-2 pitches, no aggressive leads, etc. That's incredibly valuable, especially for a guy knew how to induce a groundball. Sure, somone might say, what difference does 3 feet make on a lead from 1b, and in a particular instance it might not make that much, but over 3,000+ innings, that's a lot of extra bases that weren't taken, DPs that occurred because of crappy leads/not running on the pitch, it really adds up.

The fielding thing is a bit easier to measure, but not by much. Sure he didn't win as many GGs as some other guys - Kaat/Maddux - but as measured by what tools we have, and with the eye test Buehrle was phe-fucking-nominal.

So either of the two attributes above would be amazing to have over 3,000+ IP, but when you combine both together, you've got a ton of skill/value there that is almost unmeasurable.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:58 pm 
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It's going to be really hard to be a great pitcher and consistent for years on end from here on out. Right now, the K and the shift is saving guys' asses. That's fleeting. Wait until the next generation of animals come up and have that figured out too. Pitchers have run out of options. You can only throw the ball so hard without having your arm fall off, and you can't plunk guys. Trick'em guys like Hendricks can't be great, only good.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:59 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Here's the funny thing for people who actually believe W/L record is "meaningless". If you look at almost every other number, Jose Quintana is better than Buehrle. I'm sure there are mentally deranged amateur GMs who would argue that Quintana was obviously better but simply lacked "run support". :lol:


Not sure what numbers are really all that remarkable better for Quintana?

ERA: Quintana 3.73, Buehrle 3.81
ERA+: Quintana 110, Buehrle 117
K/9: Quintana 7.9, Buehrle 5.1
BB/9: Quintana 2.5, Buehrle 2.0
WHIP: Quintana 1.26, Buehrle 1.28
HR/9: Quintana .9, Buehrle 1.0

I don't know anyone who would look at those numbers and say that based on that Quintana was better than Buehrle regardless of how much they like or dislike pitcher wins. This says nothing to the fact that Buehrle has more than 2x the number of innings pitched compared to Quintana.


If we had posted those numbers blind with Pitcher A and Pitcher B, I'm pretty confident most would say A was the better pitcher. In reality, they aren't even close.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:01 pm 
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One Post wrote:
There was another article in the fangraphs piece that discussed this, and also a great piece on Grantland that talked about Buehrle being arguably the best SP in history at both (a) controlling the running game/baserunning, and (b) fielding his position.

He wasn't just good at both of those, he was arguably the best SP (with guys of a career of any duration) at each of those things. Both of those things, the running game especially, are difficult to capture statistically.

The running game thing in particular is almost impossible to measure, and incredibly important. Obviously there was no base stealing on Buehrle, or it was a suicide mission if someone attempted. But moreso, guys were scared shitless to even take secondary leads. There are instances of runners who weren't even trying to steal a base getting picked off by Buehrle. So anyone on base, especially first base, was essentially standing 2 fucking feet from the bag on every pitch. No runners were taking off on 3-2 pitches, no aggressive leads, etc. That's incredibly valuable, especially for a guy knew how to induce a groundball. Sure, somone might say, what difference does 3 feet make on a lead from 1b, and in a particular instance it might not make that much, but over 3,000+ innings, that's a lot of extra bases that weren't taken, DPs that occurred because of crappy leads/not running on the pitch, it really adds up.

The fielding thing is a bit easier to measure, but not by much. Sure he didn't win as many GGs as some other guys - Kaat/Maddux - but as measured by what tools we have, and with the eye test Buehrle was phe-fucking-nominal.

So either of the two attributes above would be amazing to have over 3,000+ IP, but when you combine both together, you've got a ton of skill/value there that is almost unmeasurable.


I heard a conversation once about Maddux where some baseball guy said, "The way to get to Maddux is through the running game. He's vulnerable to steals." The other guy said, "That's great. You have to get on base first though."

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:34 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
It's going to be really hard to be a great pitcher and consistent for years on end from here on out. Right now, the K and the shift is saving guys' asses. That's fleeting. Wait until the next generation of animals come up and have that figured out too. Pitchers have run out of options. You can only throw the ball so hard without having your arm fall off, and you can't plunk guys. Trick'em guys like Hendricks can't be great, only good.

So then does 220 wins get you into the HoF?


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:09 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Here's the funny thing for people who actually believe W/L record is "meaningless". If you look at almost every other number, Jose Quintana is better than Buehrle. I'm sure there are mentally deranged amateur GMs who would argue that Quintana was obviously better but simply lacked "run support". :lol:


Not sure what numbers are really all that remarkable better for Quintana?

ERA: Quintana 3.73, Buehrle 3.81
ERA+: Quintana 110, Buehrle 117
K/9: Quintana 7.9, Buehrle 5.1
BB/9: Quintana 2.5, Buehrle 2.0
WHIP: Quintana 1.26, Buehrle 1.28
HR/9: Quintana .9, Buehrle 1.0

I don't know anyone who would look at those numbers and say that based on that Quintana was better than Buehrle regardless of how much they like or dislike pitcher wins. This says nothing to the fact that Buehrle has more than 2x the number of innings pitched compared to Quintana.


If we had posted those numbers blind with Pitcher A and Pitcher B, I'm pretty confident most would say A was the better pitcher. In reality, they aren't even close.


I'm equally as confident that if you said guy B threw 3,200+ innings and guy A hasn't thrown 2,000 that it nobody would say guy A.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:10 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Here's the funny thing for people who actually believe W/L record is "meaningless". If you look at almost every other number, Jose Quintana is better than Buehrle. I'm sure there are mentally deranged amateur GMs who would argue that Quintana was obviously better but simply lacked "run support". :lol:


Not sure what numbers are really all that remarkable better for Quintana?

ERA: Quintana 3.73, Buehrle 3.81
ERA+: Quintana 110, Buehrle 117
K/9: Quintana 7.9, Buehrle 5.1
BB/9: Quintana 2.5, Buehrle 2.0
WHIP: Quintana 1.26, Buehrle 1.28
HR/9: Quintana .9, Buehrle 1.0

I don't know anyone who would look at those numbers and say that based on that Quintana was better than Buehrle regardless of how much they like or dislike pitcher wins. This says nothing to the fact that Buehrle has more than 2x the number of innings pitched compared to Quintana.


If we had posted those numbers blind with Pitcher A and Pitcher B, I'm pretty confident most would say A was the better pitcher. In reality, they aren't even close.


I'm equally as confident that if you said guy B threw 3,200+ innings and guy A hasn't thrown 2,000 that it nobody would say guy A.


Sure. That's another reason W/L record is the best single stat for a starting pitcher. It gives you a pretty good idea how many innings the guy has thrown.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:12 pm 
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tommy wrote:
Nardi wrote:
It's going to be really hard to be a great pitcher and consistent for years on end from here on out. Right now, the K and the shift is saving guys' asses. That's fleeting. Wait until the next generation of animals come up and have that figured out too. Pitchers have run out of options. You can only throw the ball so hard without having your arm fall off, and you can't plunk guys. Trick'em guys like Hendricks can't be great, only good.

So then does 220 wins get you into the HoF?

I dunno, man. I just see a dismal future for pitching. Lively bats are pouring into MLB from all over the globe and pitchers are being used up and spit out at an alarming rate. Take a guy like Kopech. Very few of us thinks he's going to be great despite a 100 miler and great advancements in Tommy John. As time goes on, there's just more options for beasts with bats than beasts with arms.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:15 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
tommy wrote:
Nardi wrote:
It's going to be really hard to be a great pitcher and consistent for years on end from here on out. Right now, the K and the shift is saving guys' asses. That's fleeting. Wait until the next generation of animals come up and have that figured out too. Pitchers have run out of options. You can only throw the ball so hard without having your arm fall off, and you can't plunk guys. Trick'em guys like Hendricks can't be great, only good.

So then does 220 wins get you into the HoF?

I dunno, man. I just see a dismal future for pitching. Lively bats are pouring into MLB from all over the globe and pitchers are being used up and spit out at an alarming rate. Take a guy like Kopech. Very few of us thinks he's going to be great despite a 100 miler and great advancements in Tommy John. As time goes on, there's just more options for beasts with bats than beasts with arms.

You're right about that. As a fan of pitching more than a fan of hitting, I say raise the mound. (If that would even matter.)


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:23 pm 
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tommy wrote:
Nardi wrote:
tommy wrote:
Nardi wrote:
It's going to be really hard to be a great pitcher and consistent for years on end from here on out. Right now, the K and the shift is saving guys' asses. That's fleeting. Wait until the next generation of animals come up and have that figured out too. Pitchers have run out of options. You can only throw the ball so hard without having your arm fall off, and you can't plunk guys. Trick'em guys like Hendricks can't be great, only good.

So then does 220 wins get you into the HoF?

I dunno, man. I just see a dismal future for pitching. Lively bats are pouring into MLB from all over the globe and pitchers are being used up and spit out at an alarming rate. Take a guy like Kopech. Very few of us thinks he's going to be great despite a 100 miler and great advancements in Tommy John. As time goes on, there's just more options for beasts with bats than beasts with arms.

You're right about that. As a fan of pitching more than a fan of hitting, I say raise the mound. (If that would even matter.)

Once the Ks go down and the shifting becomes less effective. 5-10 years. Once everbody starts scoring like the Dodgers do.


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