More from Irish Boy's Cavalcade of Math:
Quote:
16-9 on our handicapping site - dontfademe.com. I'm up 700 units
That's from his myspace page. I got to thinking about this: right now, the only real betting sports going on are baseball and preseason football. Let's assume it's been mostly baseball for this, although it doesn't really matter. Baseball wagering runs off the moneyline, so only very rarely will anything come to even amounts. Assume that you bet on a favorite. There's two ways you could handle it:
1.) Always bet one unit regardless of the payout: if the price is -200, you'd bet one unit and hope to win .5 units.
2.) Always bet the amount it would take to win one unit: if the price is -200, you'd bet two units; if the price is -150, you'd bet 1.5 units, and so on.
The same works for longshots as well; you could either bet one unit no matter what and hope to win more, or you could bet less and hope to win one unit. For example, if the price was +200, you could bet one unit and hope to win two, or you could bet half a unit and hope to win one.
For the Mike to have a perfectly even unit figure like 700 (assuming he's multiplying things by 100), he'd have to employ a system where he always bets the amount you need to win one unit, and
he'd always have to win. Think about that for a second. It's possible, when betting baseball, to win one unit at a time evenly. If you're betting on a bunch of -125s, you'd just bet 1.25 units (this isn't the recommended method, BTW.) As long as you won, you'd come out with even figures. But as soon as you lose, you'd have lost 1.25, and your units would no longer be even.
That'd be true no matter what system he employed, unless
he knew before hand when he was going to win or lose. If that were the case, you could bet the amount you need to win one unit when you win, and bet one unit when you lose, regardless of the payoff. That's the only way to get to a figure like +700 units.
It could also be possible that he's just rounding. But that's a huge, huge problem, even though it's just small numbers at the margins. Baseball wagering is all about small advantages slowly accumulated; you can't just round those up because it's more convenient. There's a difference between +140 and +145 in the long term. Also, it's not just about being right more than half the time; it's about being right enough times to overcome the transaction costs (the vig.) Anyone on Wall Street will tell you that outperforming the market is relatively easy; outperforming the market after taking transaction costs into consideration takes a lot more talent.