Interest rates are near zero, the fed is printing like crazy, the dollar's value is starting to fall to critical support levels.... at some point interest rates have to start creeping up, right? What then? The stock market is so disconnected from the real world. How long can this madness continue before something awful happens?

We’re not even at the negative rate stage yet, friend.

We have a long way to go.

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Aren't negative rates counterproductive though? How do you see this playing out?

If necessary, negative rates and quantitative easing with asset purchases of diminishing credit quality.

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to clarify, you're not pulling out of the stock market in the next six months?

Because this is a deck of cards....

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Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

Prob from a fundamental perspective but there’s so much liquidity that has to find a home.

With rates so low in the debt markets, I just can’t see people fleeing equities without some ‘event’ (which I have no idea what that would be or where it would come from).

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And to the rates question, I’d agree it’s a bad idea. Not necessarily counterproductive but definitely csn kicking. I think it’s a black hole with no obvious off ramp. (See Europe for example).

But it should theoretically encourage spending.

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$100,000 Bitcoin.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Chinese Yuan is trading just fine at 1.00 to .15 US Dollar.

The next reserve currency will be a crypto. Whether it's Bitcoin itself or something they cook up in Davos I don't know, but I'd say the dollar is nearing the end of its run.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I’d actually bet on that one (opposite your view).

Nation states are necessary. If Bitcoin or any other crypto ever threatens a real currency, governments will crush it.

Limit mining, purchases from regulated banks, etc.

A currency with zero transparency and no regulation won’t be taken seriously without major changes in how we’ve organized society.

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I think that horse has left the barn. There's no way to kill Bitcoin without killing the Internet. It's best to just accept it and deal with it, but as I said above, I think there's a good chance the world powers try to create a global crypto that they can control. Obviously, the major feature of Bitcoin is the decentralization. And that's the thing governments will attempt to eliminate.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

For who though?

How does it advance American interest to mainstream Bitcoin? The RMB was held out of the reserve currency basket for decades and we’re going to ok an unregulated currency?

It’s one of those things that thrives in darkness but would have to majorly adapt to if governments were to actually allow it in trade. Blockchain makes sense, but specific cryptos have a long leash right now.

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I don't think anyone knows the answers to any of these questions. I think the next fifty years are going to be tumultuous. I'm not sure the USA will even exist in its current form.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You can make a law that American businesses can't accept it. Then you convince your allies to do the same.

What can you buy with it then?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

More so regulate the banks, but you’re correct. Regulation will stifle it when the time comes.

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You can try that, but when you do that the USA in its current form no longer exists. You're well on your way to a totalitarian state.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I thought that was because Biden was elected.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Some dude from Goldman Sachs said $1 million in 5 years.

in the past they started wars and stole resources. whatever they take is just a small bonus.. the real value is they can create a ton of jobs by sacrificing human lives so they don't have to pay people directly. But it does still funnel through their businesses and stock holdings, that way theyre not giving away too much of their money to the peasants.

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the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

Bitcoin's value is still tethered to the dollar, correct? People don't seem to be getting excited about the concept of bitcoin as much as the are getting excited about it's increase in value in relation to the dollar. "I could sell my bitcoin and convert it into a million dollars!"

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No. Americans just tend to think of value in terms of USD. My wife always asks when I'm going to "sell" some Bitcoin and I always reply, "You mean convert to dollars? Why would I do that?"

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

So just hodl until the heat death of the universe?

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I'm hodling until my wife retires for sure. I look at it as insurance. If everything else falls apart Bitcoin should be strong. If it's worth nothing I'm assuming I'll either be good with the other stuff or it's the absolute end of the world.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Parkins is betting on it so expect it to tank

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Interest rates are starting to rise. The yield on the U.S. 10 yr. rose 5 basis points Thurs. and Fri to 0.95% after dovish Powell's FOMC comments on Wed. I don't think the Fed will be able to maintain control on the long end anymore. In theory, rising interest rates should strengthen the dollar, but here interest rates would be rising because of money printing by the Fed, which is inflationary. As government yields rise, stocks will fall for being max priced already due to low interest rates. It would be especially bad to hold gold and silver right now, despite the run-ups in both this week, in the face of rising interest rates, because precious metals have no yield. Precious metals do best when interest rates are falling, but they're not falling anymore.

Trump says you can refinance at 0% interest rates. Who is going to be buying U.S. debt at that level when the dollar is devaluing far more than any interest you would ever receive on the debt? Hence, the situation where the Fed is the only buyer of U.S. government debt. That cannot be sustainable over the long-run. There has to be a point where the Fed's multi-trillion dollar bloated balance sheet becomes dangerous.

The Rich Dad guy said about a week ago that the everything crash is coming. I agree. People think that gold and silver or even bitcoin are safe-havens. They're not, when there's truly risk off and everyone is looking to cash out. I don't think government bonds will even be able to stand up to an everything crash.

It's all down to operation warp speed saving the economy. Come March, this country needs a cheerleader. And that's Biden. Wish it was Trump.