Ice tastic.

Glad some of the games early on our schedule for Spring Football are on turf fields. Might need to do a shoutout for Field Turf...

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An unjust law is no law at all--St. Augustine of Hippo

Cause tried and true
I see the light in you
Oh, can you dig in my soul?
Could you smell my whole...
life?--Gener and Deaner

Very windy and very snowy.

The forecast for Wednesday down there is looking worse. The fact that the forecasts are so far out ahead of this is pretty wild this early in the year.

Batten down the hatches, Ogie!

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wtf, it's like raining glass!

from day one (11/21 to be exact) me and the wife have pledged to pick up every poop as soon as it happened. It helped having small puppies because we never just let them out, we always went out in the yard with them. Now they are up to 50 lbs and we are still keeping up with the pledge. We have an odd yard that meets with two other yards and also borders a park. We didn't want to be the neighbor that has a yard full of dog crap. Also it attracts coyotes and other animals. So we go out there with them every time we let them out.

As a result, zero poops in our yard when the snow melt.

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i love the sound of breaking glass

IT's STICKING!

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Pop

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Dixie Alley is going to get pummeled tomorrow. This is with a likely upgrade to a "high risk" day during the next update here from SPC



This set up looks like 2011 all over again. I'm thankfully west of the danger zones here

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Maybe if I posted this on Barstool, you would have seen it!

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I probably would have. Thankfully I'm in the most NW county of my state so our main threat is just thunderstorms rather than the main long track tornado threat that is gonna pound much of the south.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Based on the convective discussion, they think this can go 30% w/ sig severe and that will necessitate an upgrade to the first high risk day in a few years.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Pull up yesterday's SPC "Day 2" convective map and put it on template. You'll thank me later.


Edit: Here it is.




If you have convection that lasts for more than 4 hours, call your doctor.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Looks like we will have our first "high risk" day in 2 years when we get the 0600z SPC convection forecast.

If you want to know what to watch tomorrow, go get a feed with James Spann from ABC 33/40 in Tuscaloosa/Birmingham. He's the Gary England of Dixie Alley when a big one pops off.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Spann is the best.

Central Mississippi is going to get wrecked. Alabama is going to have issues as well. Dangerous day ahead. Not a question of if there will be MANY tornadoes, but how many and how strong.

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They added a good size high risk area at the 06z update and then enlarged it further at the 12z update.

It's going to be a long day. The only thing that might prevent this from being a 2011 repeat is the fact that there's a good chance the supercells could merge into a line of thunderstorms where they cannibalize each other. You can still get very dangerous tornadoes out of such a system, but it hopefully allows you to avoid getting something like the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham EF4 that the 2011 system produced. If the cells remain more independent, then anything can happen.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

They specifically cite the risk of "violent" tornadoes. When they refer to violent tornadoes they aren't just using a descriptive term here. A violent tornado is a specific term used to refer exclusively to EF4 or EF5 whereas "strong" refers to EF2 or EF3.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

PDS watch coming up in roughly 1 hour

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

PDS = Particularly Dangerous Situation for all of you non weather geeks.

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Thoughts and prayers to the shit stompers in Central Mississippi

it's going to be bad, weather discord I'm on has people reporting no cloud cover and lots of sunshine in the areas of highest danger right now. That just means you'll have a lot of energy and rising warm air this afternoon that will collide with the sheer to create a lot of rotation.

SPC just updated their Day 1 convective forecast to raise the risk to 45% TOR w/ sig severe. It was 15% yesterday and 30% this morning.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

first PDS watch is out

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

First of the day

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Wow. You can see the hook echo starting to form in that first picture. Not sure how it wasn't warned at that point.

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Spann is now live

https://abc3340.com/watch

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson