If you would like to listen to an interview with Kenny White about the upcoming college football season, you can find the interview at sportsconferencecall.com. White is the head of Las Vegas Sports Consultants (the company that gives guidance on all lines to the casinos). He will give you an idea of how he rates the teams, and thus provide a little insight into how the teams will be rated for line-setting purposes.

I won't waste much time with preseason rankings. Rankings are for media and fans to express opinions, not for bettors who want to earn cash. In fact, most bettors would be well advised to ignore rankings entirely. They can too easily skew one's perceptions about a team. Rankings are mostly irrelevant to wagering, other than to the extent teams are over- or under-valued by rankings and those rankings are then reflected in the betting lines. That doesn't happen too much any more though because sharp bettors and sharp linesmakers are setting the numbers, not the opinions of public bettors. What is more relevant to me are the power ratings. These are what lines are made of. I don't make many bets based on my opinions of particular teams, I make them based mostly on matchups and line value.

I'll give you my power ratings on all 120 college football teams tonight.

Here are my preseason power ratings that I will use to find what I perceive to be line value. If it's useful to you, great. If you don't agree with some of it, I encourage you to make money going the other way.

Home refers to home field advantage. I give some teams more than the standard 3 points and a few teams get less. To calculate a line, add the Home field advantage to the home team and subtract the away team. For example, this weekend, Northern Illinois travels to Minnesota. I would make Minnesota (76+4) a 12.5 point favorite over NIU (67.5). With a current line of 8.5, I see 4 points of value to Minnesota. Early in the season, I won't play a game strictly on line value unless I find a game with value of 7 or more points. As we start the season, there surely are errors on some teams, but I think it is far more likely that I have undervalued some teams, rather than overvalued very many.

Coast - will you update these periodically throughout the season and share with us?

If you like, sure. I update them every Sunday for my own use. They will become much more accurate as the season wears on.

Might make sense before conference play in 4 weeks....By then you can have an accurate assessment of the Hawkeyes and how they will fare in the Big Ten (Not very good is the answer)

That's an interesting system. It makes a lot of sense. Updates would be much appreciated.

Thanks.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Curious to see how you come up with these or what the thoughts are behind it. For instance, I understand that Hawai'i would have a much higher home field score than a mainland school. And I am guessing Boise State gets its boost from the smurf turf. But I'm curious as to why a Ball State, for example, would get more points than a Michigan.

Thanks for sharing the spreadsheet! I would be very interested to see updates to it periodically through the season.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

The only team that sticks out to me is Penn State at 92; seems a bit optimistic. I read your defense of PSU in another section and I'm not sure I agree with it. Time will tell, I suppose.

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Fire Phil Emery

Different factors influence home field for different schools. I can probably give you 120 different reasons why I rank each school as I do. Generally, it isn't where a team is or the color of their turf or the size or noise level of their crowds. It is their performance. I will give a school a higher HFA if they have consistently shown they beat spreads at home. Conversely, I will dock them if they don't.

Michigan has not performed particularly well at home in recent years, even though it has huge crowds. The Big House used to be worth 4, but I downgraded them before last year and it seemed to make sense as they lost at home last year to Appy St., Oregon, and failing to cover by 18 vs. E. Michigan and overall, going 4-4 ATS at home. Last year was actually an improvement in their home performance over the three previous years. In 2006, UM was 2-4-1 ATS at home. The year before that, UM was 2-5 ATS at home. The year before that, UM was 2-3-1 ATS at home. 2003 was the last year UM had a winning season ATS at home. With a young team, I kept their HFA at 3.

I gave Ball State a 3.5 for a few reasons. First, they have every starter back on offense. This senior-dominated group has consistently been part of teams that covered spreads at home throughout their careers. I thought that was worth a half a tick. Last year, BSU was 3-2 ATS, in 06 they were 3-2, in 05 they were 3-1 (with the only L as a 4 pt dog in OT).

Coast: how much of the process for you is subjective and how much is completely quantitative? For example, do you have a system that spits out a number, then you tinker with the number until it looks right? Or do you just go off the basis of what you think is going to work from the get-go and look at the stats/trends entirely flexibly?

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Fire Phil Emery

Iowa might have been a 5 a few years ago, but not anymore. Kinnick isn't as feared anymore.

You may be right about that Vince. I probably should have cut Iowa back. The HFA reflects their home spread performance that hasn't been so hot the last two years.

IB, I have a specific plus/minus process. I start with my year-end numbers from the year before, and add or subtract to each team's power rating based on +/- change from last year on each position. I also add or subtact based on factors like whether a team has a returning starting QB, number of returning starters overall, new offensive coach with new system(-), new defensive system(-), 2nd year in a new system (+), etc. I have general rating systems for each position/factor ranging from -2.5 to +2.5, but some of the individual ratings can be subjective (is the returning Iowa quarterback worth +.5, +1 or +1.5), but the factors I apply to each team are the same.

The system spits out the number and I go with it...but I will adjust very quickly and significantly the first two games based on performance.

I would say Iowa is probably closer to +.5 As for Jake Christensen, can you go -.5?

Since there is some questioning with my rating of Penn State, I'll show you my analysis of Penn State to give you an idea of how I do this for each team. It isn't that I rated PSU all that much higher than I did last year. In fact, they start this season just 0.5 ahead of where they ended last year. Their position as #2 in the Big Ten PRs occurred because the other top half teams in the conference (except OSU) all went down.

Last year's year-end PSU rating:91.5. This year's starting rating: 92. Net change +0.5
Overall team experience and depth: Number of returning starters and experienced lettermen: 18/38 +1
Quarterback: new, unproven but talented QB. -2
Receiver: WIlliams and Butler make the receivers one of the conference's best: +1
RB: Royster comparable to Kinlaw/Royster at season's end last year: 0
OL: 3 returning starters, 2 experienced vets. 0
DL: Experienced, one of the best in the nation. +1.5
LB: Lost two top backers. -2
DB: Five returning starters: +1
Coaching: 0
Intangibles: 0

Power Sweep Week 1 download here.
http://www.zshare.net/download/1769175347d67e70/

Power Sweep is a pay weekly newsletter from Phil Steele. The guy has good info. Caveat: I pay for this because of his info. I get perspectives I don't get other places. I don't pay attention to his picks.

If anybody is interested in this, I can post the download every week. It comes out every Tuesday afternoon.

A thank you is in order to Coast. I used his sheet in taking Buffalo and Troy to victory last night.

It looks like a thumbs up to Temple tonight and Utah tomorrow.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

I see value in a handful of games for week 1. I won't be diving in this weekend, just taking a dip. I'll be shopping for the best numbers, but here is what I see so far. 1 unit on each.

Week 1 Value Plays
Western Michigan +14 @ Nebraska
Hawaii +35 @ Florida
Virginia +19.5 vs. USC
Clemson -4 vs. Alabama
Florida Atlantic +24 @ Texas


THESE ARE NOT OFFICIAL PLAYS FOR THE PICK WINNERS CONTEST. THESE ARE JUST ONE UNIT PLAYS BASED SOLELY ON LINE VALUE AS I SEE IT IN MY POWER RATINGS SYSTEM.

MY BEST PLAYS WILL INVOLVE MORE THAN LINE VALUE, BUT ALSO WILL INCLUDE MATCHUP AND SITUATIONAL FACTORS. I'LL SAVE MY BEST 3-5 UNIT PLAYS FOR THAT PICK WINNERS CONTEST. NONE OF THOSE THIS WEEKEND.

Good luck.

That might be the biggest pile of horse dung I've ever dished out (in the wagering section anyway). Fade me bro.

Any thoughts on today's games?

I didn't have any thoughts on Louie-Kentucky, but will have a rooting interest in Fresno today.

I was a little behind looking at this game, but the more I look at this, the more I see a 2** (1-5 scale this year)

CFB YTD: 0-5, -5.5

UCLA-Tennessee UNDER 23 1st half, 2**
We have new quarterbacks for both teams, a new coaching staff for UCLA with a new offensive system, a UCLA offensive line that is really struggling...and the list goes on. Vols QB Crompton was highly touted coming out of HS, but has limited experience. He has a little ankle issue, though whether it affects him remains to be seen. The Vols' strength on O early could likely be pounding with Foster. UCLA can be stout against the run as their DT combo of Harwell and Price is top tier. LA papers suggest Neuheisel and Chow will open with a somewhat conservative gameplan. They will rely on the more experienced D to play a field position game. Kicking games for both teams are solid. The UCLA OL is riddled with injuries and the guys that are playing are green. So the Bruins will likely rely on Bell and a short passing game. QB Craft (formerly of SD St.) hasn't done anything in Spring or Fall camp to show that he is up to the task against a top tier SEC defense. Could be a field position grinder as both teams find their rhythm against defenses likely to be much farther along than the Os.