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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:32 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Hah, nope on the puts. I am in for 200 shares so feeling the same pain. Hoping KD takes off as spins usually do, and IBM should start to bounce back as this seems like a very overdone selloff.


So, KD has really tanked. Buying opportunity?

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:47 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:56 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Hah, nope on the puts. I am in for 200 shares so feeling the same pain. Hoping KD takes off as spins usually do, and IBM should start to bounce back as this seems like a very overdone selloff.


So, KD has really tanked. Buying opportunity?


I have never seen a spin off tank like that. Not sure what is driving it. It is a very unusual dynamic. I must have jinxed it.

It probably is, but I have not done enough research on it to make a call. Typically spin offs become immediate acquisition targets which increases their value. I dunno on this one.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:59 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Hah, nope on the puts. I am in for 200 shares so feeling the same pain. Hoping KD takes off as spins usually do, and IBM should start to bounce back as this seems like a very overdone selloff.


So, KD has really tanked. Buying opportunity?


I have never seen a spin off tank like that. Not sure what is driving it. It is a very unusual dynamic. I must have jinxed it.

It probably is, but I have not done enough research on it to make a call. Typically spin offs become immediate acquisition targets which increases their value. I dunno on this one.


You make the call! https://youtu.be/jPeHbdFWE1g

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:22 am 
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Interesting doom and gloom thread


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:32 pm 
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consumer demand is already so high, you can't expect Black Friday to be a big event. People are already buying anything they want.

This will not end well, that much is correct. I'm getting out of stocks/mutual funds in the new year, early on. As interest rates go up, there will be good investment opportunities even if you've only got a little bit of capitol.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:48 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
consumer demand is already so high, you can't expect Black Friday to be a big event. People are already buying anything they want.

This will not end well, that much is correct. I'm getting out of stocks/mutual funds in the new year, early on. As interest rates go up, there will be good investment opportunities even if you've only got a little bit of capitol.


Good idea to get out of stocks, if you haven't already. The easy money has already been made.

But your thesis about interest rates going higher may be incorrect. Rates are actually dropping now, like the 10 yr. In fact, bonds are looking quite bullish amid the stock market turmoil, lower energy prices, COVID and weak labor market.


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:02 pm 
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Do you see a path for the government to fight inflation other than raising interest rates? I don't...

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:19 pm 
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No we are close to full employment albeit with a lower than ideal workforce participation rate. The Fed has accelerated the taper, and one Fed governor came out to say rates must go up. The taper will be done in Q1, and then they will start to raise rates. But these are bullish things. The economy has recovered nicely.

Covid could push us back down. Oil prices certainly seem to be signaling that world demand is going to fall well short of expectations.

Anyone with long term money (read retirement funds) should stay fully invested. You will drive yourself crazy trying to time the market. If you are really scared, then adjust your asset allocations. But bonds are not attractive at all right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:24 pm 
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Once QE stops the market crashes

Btw I find the phrase quantitative easing to be such a purposefully insidious way of saying “pumping billions of dollars into the stock market on a daily basis”.

I’m sure my observation isn’t new or groundbreaking by any means.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:24 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
No we are close to full employment albeit with a lower than ideal workforce participation rate. The Fed has accelerated the taper, and one Fed governor came out to say rates must go up. The taper will be done in Q1, and then they will start to raise rates. But these are bullish things. The economy has recovered nicely.

Covid could push us back down. Oil prices certainly seem to be signaling that world demand is going to fall well short of expectations.

Anyone with long term money (read retirement funds) should stay fully invested. You will drive yourself crazy trying to time the market. If you are really scared, then adjust your asset allocations. But bonds are not attractive at all right now.

I'm praying Omicron will be a weak sister of COVID. People will rejoice and there will be a giant attitude adjustment amongst the fearful. I've always felt that the economy's health is partly due to attitude.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:29 pm 
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Jbi11s wrote:
Once QE stops the market crashes

Btw I find the phrase quantitative easing to be such a purposefully insidious way of saying “pumping billions of dollars into the stock market on a daily basis”.

I’m sure my observation isn’t new or groundbreaking by any means.


QE is really money printing and serves to flood the bond market with extra buyers. It drives the stock market because as interest rates go down, it makes investing in equities more attractive. Plus when you have lower interest rates, it serves to discount future cash flows at a lower rate.

But money moves around all over, so yes you are correct (about pumping up the stock market. TBD on market crash….I doubt it.)

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 5:36 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
But bonds are not attractive at all right now.


I agree with you on a lot of things, Denisdman, but not this. The market is saying otherwise.

I see not only U.S. rates but rates world-wide on Marketwatch heading lower. Inflation has peaked with energy prices declining sharply over the last month. Labor market is weak, so there's little wage-price pressure. Commodity prices also are down.


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:52 pm 
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Im portfolilo is completely fucked i lost half my money since last year

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:25 pm 
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El Salvadoran president uses "Boomer" slur vs. Peter Schiff:


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:37 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
denisdman wrote:
But bonds are not attractive at all right now.


I agree with you on a lot of things, Denisdman, but not this. The market is saying otherwise.

I see not only U.S. rates but rates world-wide on Marketwatch heading lower. Inflation has peaked with energy prices declining sharply over the last month. Labor market is weak, so there's little wage-price pressure. Commodity prices also are down.

there's no way inflation has peaked. And how is the labor market weak? Wages keep going up and up. Commodity prices are a bit down, yes.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 1:27 pm 
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One of my Libertarian friends and I are working on the algorithm for a new token called Spoogecoin. It's going to be backed by unvaccinated sperm.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 2:09 pm 
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Looks like the PPT ate their Wheaties today.

They pumped it overnight and got the long algos to bite when the S&P and Nas broke above their 20 day MAs.

I'm not complaining. Had QQQ call coming into today. The chart looked favorable after the indexes bounced off lows yesterday.


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 2:42 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
El Salvadoran president uses "Boomer" slur vs. Peter Schiff:


I can’t believe that’s actually the president of a country (kind of).

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:15 pm 
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IBM has been making a nice move, so let me jinx it. When you add in the dividend we receive tonight, the KD shares, and recovery in price, it is close to breakeven……

Time to short it!

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:00 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
IBM has been making a nice move, so let me jinx it. When you add in the dividend we receive tonight, the KD shares, and recovery in price, it is close to breakeven……

Time to short it!


i'm up .12% as of close :drunken:


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:21 pm 
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hnd wrote:
denisdman wrote:
IBM has been making a nice move, so let me jinx it. When you add in the dividend we receive tonight, the KD shares, and recovery in price, it is close to breakeven……

Time to short it!


i'm up .12% as of close :drunken:

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:50 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
IBM has been making a nice move, so let me jinx it. When you add in the dividend we receive tonight, the KD shares, and recovery in price, it is close to breakeven……

Time to short it!


Funny you mention it...I was just looking at selling some covered calls.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:43 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:02 pm 
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It’s timely because it is year end, and it is possible Congress will raise the cap gains rate for 2022. Fed interest rate hikes are not coming until quantitative easing has ceased. The hikes will be late Q1 or next summer.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:16 pm 
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I can't wrap my head around it. Say our system collapses or there is no access to the internet do you just say I'm paying in bitcoin and it's on my puter? It can't ever be a tangible asset right? Also it's the diamond issue. It has value because others think it does but it's value is really worthless. If we are at that point aren't you going to be trying to get food and water and defend what you have?


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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:48 am 
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Spaulding wrote:
I can't wrap my head around it. Say our system collapses or there is no access to the internet do you just say I'm paying in bitcoin and it's on my puter? It can't ever be a tangible asset right? Also it's the diamond issue. It has value because others think it does but it's value is really worthless. If we are at that point aren't you going to be trying to get food and water and defend what you have?


Top 10 tangible assets after a total collapse:
Construction equipment, fuels, solar panels, guns, ammo, security, plumbers, electricians, land, women. And Purdue Rick

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:15 am 
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Spaulding wrote:
I can't wrap my head around it. Say our system collapses or there is no access to the internet do you just say I'm paying in bitcoin and it's on my puter? It can't ever be a tangible asset right? Also it's the diamond issue. It has value because others think it does but it's value is really worthless. If we are at that point aren't you going to be trying to get food and water and defend what you have?


Your first point is valid. Obviously, crypto is worthless if there is no access to the Internet. But the same will be true for the crypto-yuan that may be the world's reserve currency in twenty years. It's just that it will also be controlled by a dictatorship rather than being a decentralized currency of The People. Governments are terrified of Bitcoin. It has the power and potential to completely reorder the world in a positive way, but also in a way that would strip the Establishment of power. That's why you have supposed advocate for The People, Liz Warren, railing against crypto.

The part I bolded can be said about any commodity that isn't a basic human necessity, i.e. everything expect food, water, land. The only reason the U.S. Dollar or gold have value is because people accept that they do. In the event of a complete societal collapse carrots may have more value than gold. You won't be able to eat your gold.

It's like my Libertarian crypto-mining friends say: Money is a human concept.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:40 am 
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This Ends in Antioch wrote:
hnd wrote:
denisdman wrote:
IBM has been making a nice move, so let me jinx it. When you add in the dividend we receive tonight, the KD shares, and recovery in price, it is close to breakeven……

Time to short it!


i'm up .12% as of close :drunken:

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Don’t stop now boys.

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 Post subject: Re: Crypto/Stocks
PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:43 pm 
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now up 3.64% at the moment!

I really feel like the value side of the stylebox is going to remain somewhat steady even in a correction. Growth stocks are so overvalued from small to large, its not going to be great. QQQ holders will be in for a rough ride I believe the next few years.


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