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Article excerpts from Dec.8.2015 (7 days before Cubs sign him)
Jason Heyward figures to be the best-paid player on this year's free agent market, but managers and executives don't think the 26-year-old outfielder will prove to be worth what it will take to sign him
Of the 39 position players to have signed contracts worth $100 million or more, Heyward will become the first outfielder to do so without ever scoring or driving in 100 runs.
Much of his WAR value comes from his superlative defense—even though as a corner outfielder, he averages only 1.7 chances per game over a season.
“We never paid for defense,” said one executive who was a general manager in the 1990s. “I would tell agents, ‘We don’t pay guys for defense.’ And nobody ever tried.”
However, one common concern I heard about Heyward was the odd way he swings the bat. He sets up as if he were hitting in a phone booth, with his hands tight to his body and his elbows in. He has almost no load with his hands, opens his front hip early, prefers to get his hands away from his body and spins so hard on his front foot that sometimes the outside of his ankle hits the ground. Heyward is much better hitting pitches down and away than pitches in and pitches up. He clubs at the ball more than he swings at it.
He hit a career-high number of ground balls this season
“He scares me,” said one manager. “With that swing, there is a possibility that you sign him to that contract and he just doesn’t hit. That’s a scary possibility. When you sign someone for that kind of money, you want to feel pretty sure what you’re going to get. I don’t think you know what to expect. That swing is so raw. It did get a little better this year, but it’s still raw.
“I’ve seen the metrics. When you look at those numbers, and you see the guys he’s compared with, I just don’t see it.”
Here’s another manager: “That swing scares me. I think you can tie him up, and I don’t see where the power is going to come from, even with his size. Don’t get me wrong. I like him. There’s a lot of things he can do. But he’s not an impact bat.
“I don’t think we’re the kind of team that can afford him. I wish we had that kind of money. But at the same time, if we did have that kind of money, I’d be scared.”
“I don’t see it. When you sign a guy at those dollars you want the kind of hitter who’s going to hit third or fourth in your order. I don’t see that with him. Really, is he any better than what Paul O’Neill was?”
It was a good question. And it turns out that after the same point in their careers—835 games—Heyward and O’Neill are very much alike:
O’Neill drew raves as a solid complementary player—who hit third most often. The complaint that Heyward is not a middle-of-the-order hitter was a common one among the men who make out lineups for a living. Here’s another one:
“I like him, but I like him only as a complementary player,” said a manager. “He doesn’t hit the fastball really well. You can get the ball in on him. To me, if you’re going to be spending that kind of money, you want somebody who’s going to hit in the middle of your lineup. He’s not that kind of hitter. He’s a complementary type player
Heyward has made only 22% of his career starts in the third or fourth spots in batting orders. He most often has hit second. Since 2010, he has hit like Walker, the Pittsburgh second baseman who is a good complementary player
Another knock on Heyward is that he does not hit lefthanders, though he did improve some in 2015 by hitting for average against them (.272) but not power (.364 slugging). Among all active players with at least 1,000 plate appearances against lefties, Heyward ranks 117th of 124 with a .351 slugging percentage
Here’s another manager on Heyward: “The problem with Jason Heyward is that the things you value the most about him now are the things you are not going to have at the back half of the contract: youth and defense. Over time, those only get worse. I would love to have him on a high [average annual value] over a short period of time—give me just his best years—but that’s not going to happen. If I did have him, I would bat him second or fifth, not in the middle. He’s not that kind of hitter. Listen, I get the metrics. I really do. But let’s remember, he’s a corner outfielder. He doesn’t play in the middle. You better love, love, love corner outfield defense to sign him.
“I’m still an old-school kind of guy,” said one executive. “I know RBIs are not the be-all and end-all, but they still matter. [Heyward] doesn’t have that kind of track record. I’ve looked at him, and I am very, very interested in how this turns out.
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