Cramer is a short term frontrunner, more a momentum guy than anything else.

There are really two broad ways to actively invest.

Seek value. Jump in unloved stuff like IBM with the hope that their strategy works and the market recognizes the value.

Growth. Jump on long term trends and picking the company(ies) able to capitalize. These stocks always look overvalued so it is necessary that they fulfill that long term promise. Google, Apple, and Amazon are the most obvious examples, but NVIDIA is another great example. I can never get myself to dive into these. PINS is about as risky as I would go, and I dove in small. I still noodle PayPal. But that valuation…

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

So so quarter for Verizon. They updated guidance to the lower end of the ranges. The stock is rightly under pressure. It is a shame because it had been up from where I first recommended it.

It sports a nearly 5% dividend yield which is the main reason for holding the stock.

GPK reports on the 26th. That one is up about 10% since I posted it here.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

At a toolbox talk this week everyone was lamenting their 401k losses from the first quarter. A couple guys were talking about stopping personal contributions (the employer contributes an hourly amount per contract regardless of emoyee contributions). I seem to remember Denis saying just keep contributing so thats what I said. I hope this isn't disastrous advice but I can't be worse than Cramer.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Keep the spigot on.

You said the exact right thing. Think about their position. Let’s stop contributing when stocks are cheaper!

The big thing is where will stocks be when you retire. Given history (and inflation), it is very likely a basket of stocks purchased today will be worth significantly more when you actually start selling your portfolio. Now the only argument that can really counter what I am saying is if you felt strongly stocks were going to sell off in next six months and then you would make up the missed contributions then.

But the smartest people in the world with super computers cannot properly time the market. For average folks like us, dollar cost averaging and investing in low cost index funds is the best way to earn a solid return for our retirement funds.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Awesome. Dollar cost averaging... that's what I was trying to explain without remembering the term. I texted them what you said. Hope they listen! Thank you.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

May your DarkoDu$t be plentiful my friend!

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Since the spigot, the Dow has gone from 3000 to 30,000. Before the spigot, gains were made through dividends. God forbid if people start losing faith in the spigot.

i'd say that the decline of private sector unions and optimal productivity are the biggest reasons for the dow to have gone from 800 in 1982 to 36000. the money for wages and pensions that are nowhere near bygone times (inflation adjusted) now go to the shareholders.

+1. Anything else goes on sale, people are happy. Why not the same for equities?

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

It's about time in the market, not timing the market.

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Behavioral finance is an area that fascinates me. The psychology of the market is something that can be exploited much like momentum trading being an unexplained market inefficiency. But I decided against a phd in Finance whereby I could waste time on useless research. I got enough initials after my name already, queue humblebrag…

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

yup. the longer i hold blackberry, the more i lose

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

I've actually been upping my contributions lately and will continue to do so if the market keeps going down as the Fed tapers. Being 34, most of my contributions thus far have been at a higher basis so I wouldn't mind getting some lower buy ins now.

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

If you can stretch to max out go for it.

There are two components to compounded investment returns: the rate of return, and time. Of the two, time is the much more important and much more powerful component.

Essentially (in most situations) the hierarchy of goals in a 401k plan should be:

1. Secure the full employer match
2. Max out your personal contribution allowance (20k in 2022)
3. Make your contributions Roth (if possible)

25% bitcoin
25% beanie babies
25% gold
25% 401k

Retire with at least $50 million in the bank.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

So your proposed allocation is going to reduce my retirement porfolio by 38%?

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Recession watch!

Went half in on PayPal just below $82 today. Valuation is still hefty but it has been a while since it was this cheap. Willing to double down if it falls from here.

Nice to see prior recent investments IBM and GPK holding up in this tech sell off. VZ had a rough quarter and has taken in on the chin.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Market crash imminent. Save cash to buy when it implodes

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

Wow what happened? PayPal is great. This looks like a steal at sub 79

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

Higher interest rates are taking its toll on overvalued tech stocks. PayPal was way overvalued and still trades at a hefty valuation. But it has a great business model. I like it (but not love) at this level. That’s why I went half in. I think $60 is possible if this market keeps tanking.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

you can get anything on ebay through paypal with 24 month free loan. just pay the monthly payment and after 2 years its done and no interest. thats why i like paypal. plus even with all the other payment apps out there, its still the best one.

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

Tanking today

a bunch of 20 somethings just sat through the 401k update at our company. one of them ran to me and basically was like, i don't understand what any of that was and the stock market is bad right now what on earth should i be doing. because some of these other people are like, we are stopping contributions.

i'm like the stock market is the only store that when they have a sale people run screaming out the doors. this is the perfect time to buy pumping as much money as you possibly can. always get your match at least.

it could still go lower but you are still buying below market highs.

Our 401k is expensive but VTSAX and all the Vanguard Target Dates are there. pick one and pile money into it. don't worry about all those other active mutual funds. don't buy any other services from Nationwide (who services our 401k). boom done. retire a multi millionaire.

apparently its now being passed around their group (20 something cold callers) so i'll likely get in trouble somehow.

market has been correcting but i still think its going to crash this year. its not a bad time to buy in, but it will be great time once this shit pops.

coins are probably as low as they will get already. long term there is a huge upward swing that will happen once the stock market starts to recover... but again i dont think we see strong growth until midterms are over.

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

Once we start getting polls of dems biting the dust in a big way, things will perk up a bit. I can't see the fortification tactics working this time around. No one gives a shit about pronouns when there isn't food on the shelves.

yup i agree. theres going to be a red flood sunami this fall and it will blast the stock market.

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.