1. We the People (2-1)
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Flavien Prat

2. Skippylongstocking (20-1)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

3. Nest (8-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

4. Rich Strike (7-2)
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon

5. Creative Minister (6-1)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

6. Mo Donegal (7-2)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Oritz Jr.

7. Golden Glider (20-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Dylan Davis

8. Barber Road (10-1)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Mo Donegal will run by We The People like he's tied to the hubrail.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

At 8-5 probably

Why do you like Mo Donegal so much?

This. Is the underacard any good, caused that ain't gonna get it done

Just the way he moves. He looks like he was born to run a mile and a half. The Belmont is a specialty race. Most of these horses will never run this far again. He's been working at Belmont since the Derby just waiting for Saturday. Pletcher is a high percentage trainer with horses off 35 days or more. And the race is in his backyard. This is a true home court advantage. It's a short field. He won't be too far back. And Irad will be able to move him whenever he wants.

@W_Z and OTE: He'll probably be about 5/2, but I think 8/5 would still be okay here. I've got him at even money on my 100 point line. I think if they ran this race 100 times he'd win 50, and maybe even more.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

That would be fine by me. But these 5-horse stakes races rounding out the day are bothering me too.

In the next few days you'll hear a lot about pedigree and which horses are "bred to go a mile and a half." I'm not a pedigree guy, especially at this point in the careers of these horses when I've seen them all race multiple times. I prefer to look at the phenotype, i.e. the visible horse rather than the genotype, i.e. the horse's genetic makeup.

If I were designing an animal to go a mile and a half, he would look exactly like Mo Donegal. But I'm looking forward to Ken Rudulph and Matt Carothers discussing the alleged distance limitations of his sire, Uncle Mo, who is not in the race.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Since 2000 7 horses that skipped the Prekness won the Belmont

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Meaning the other 16 were won by horses that ran the Preakness? What am I supposed to make of this stat?

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Quality Quantity

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

You're getting a m/l discount on Nest at 8-1. He's a true 4-1.

Creative Minister looks interesting at 6-1 as an underlay. He will be on the lead and also has the distance pedigree with both grandfathers in Giant's Causeway and Tapit. He's going to be in a position to steal the race, if he can last.

Not only does JORR, Brisnet rates Mo Donegal the best with the highest PPR. 5-2 seems rich, though.

Statistically, Rich Strike is not projecting anything special. His speed rates as a 8-1 but his win percentage by money is 2-1 with the win in the Kentucky Derby.

I definitely like Creative Minister in this race with that Preakness finish.

Mo Donegal and Barber Rd. finished 5 and 6 in the Kentucky Derby. Mo Donegal was only one length better.

I think Nest has a chance, just not nearly as good a chance as Mo Donegal.

The real money in this game is in making a stallion. Mo Donegal has a good resume already, but winning the Belmont Stakes really makes him as a stallion. I think that's the goal here. Winning this race does a lot more for Mo Donegal than it does for Nest. Obviously, Pletcher knows this. I would hope Repole does too, but the guy seems like a dope. It's hard to believe he's a billionaire.

Anyway, I wouldn't exactly call Nest a rabbit for Mo Donegal because I think under the right circumstances she could lean on We The People and win the race, but I'm gonna say that she's in there to make sure that We The People doesn't just skate away on the lead.

Here's what I consider fair odds for each of the horses:

1. We the People (2-1 M/L) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 11 times. 8/1 fair odds

2. Skippylongstocking (20-1 M/L) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 7 times. 13/1 fair odds

3. Nest (8-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think she would win 17 times. 5/1 fair odds

4. Rich Strike (7-2 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 5 times. 19/1 fair odds

5. Creative Minister (6-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 5 times. 19/1 fair odds

6. Mo Donegal (7-2 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 50 times. 1/1 fair odds

7. Golden Glider (20-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 2 times. 50/1 fair odds

8. Barber Road (10-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 3 times. 32/1 fair odds

For a wager to offer value I want to get at least 50% more than my fair odds line. For example, Mo Donegal is a bet for me at $1.50/1 or 3/2. Nest would be a bet at 7.50/1. So if Mo Donegal is 2/1 and Nest is 10/1, I have a decision to make. But hopefully the odds board makes the decision for me.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

'
Barber Road had a clean trip in the Derby - he should have finished better. Donegal had a terrible trip at Churchill and can build upon that.

Olczyk said this morning on Mully and Haugh that his pick to win is Mo Donegal. But he's also using We the People in his exactas. He mentioned We the People and Barber Rd. as one. Rich Strike is not one of his main picks.

He had Secret Oath in the Preakness.

Cold exacta Mo Donegal and Nest...both are bred to run all day, and particularly down that stretch...it will have a good early pace despite the small field

Belmont Day

Race 3 Echo Zulu reigns

Race 6 great finish between the 1 Jack Christopher and the 2 Pappacap…exacta box 1,2

Race 9 Met Mile...another great match race (shitty if you want to make some coin, though) between 1-Flightline and 2-Speakers Corner with the latter getting the edge

And in the Belmont as stated earlier cold exacta MoDonegal/Nest

Good luck all

And I just gotta bitch about this, but lack of horses in the field is bad for everybody, stop trying to sugarcoat it with the excuse of “Quality” horses…on these days I expect to see “quality” horses, it's the 3rd leg of the fucking triple crown...the lack of quantity is troubling and it keeps my wallet in my pocket

Good Luck all

We the People is probably the best horse in the field on this track. He's the only one to have won at Belmont in a graded race.

For that reason, I want to take the horse that's like a fish to water on the Belmont track and that's We the People. No other horse shows the progression for only their fourth race as he made in the Peter Pan, so his speed is unique.

Anything else is overthinking the race as far as winner.

1,4 and 1,5 and 1,3 ex. boxes.

Speed is holding let's see if the track changes as the day wears on

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

where did the races go?

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

CNBC until 4, then to NBC. Just fucking stupid.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

So we can pretty much say that Mo isnt winning today after JORRs big write up

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Had Tribuvan to show. Wish it had been to win.

We the People W?P Tri 1-5/6 key

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Congrats fellows

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Two out of three ain't bad!

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=127974&hilit=Mo+donegal



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVvXWUAKtus

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Not quite as impressive as 0-3

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.