Weird, I see Dolphin looking in my asshole

The menstrual cycle changes among Hassidic Jewish women was something as well.

Yeah it's all crashing down now, denis what should we do?

...yesterday was the third day in the past month when 500 Index (VFIAX) fell 3.5% or more in a single day. Dan and I have written about this before, but over the past 40 years or so, there have been 65 days when 500 Index dropped 3.5% or more. Days like that may be trying for investors, but they have proven to be good buying opportunities more often than not.

Here are some of the stats, I’ll have more to share in the upcoming issue of the newsletter: If you purchased 500 Index on any day it fell 3.5% or more, your average return over the next 12 months was 25.6%. You made money on 55 out of the 65 occasions, and the worst result was a loss of only 14.7%. Again, it’s not foolproof, but buying on big down days has rewarded patient investors eight out of ten times.

So, what to make of all these big one-day declines—be it at the index level or among individual stocks? Well, it tells me that even if the S&P 500 index hasn’t met the accepted definition of a bear market, falling 20% below its January 3rd high—as of Wednesday’s close it was 18.3% off its prior peak—we are definitely in a bear market.

Bear markets can challenge even the most disciplined investor’s resolve. But keep in mind that if we are already in a bear market, that suggests we are closer to the bottom than we were five months or even five weeks ago.

Also, while bonds have been disappointing for much of the year, they are starting to behave “better.” This month through Wednesday night, while 500 Index is off 4.9%, Total Bond Market Index (VBTLX) is down just 0.2%. Despite bonds’ declines over the first four months of the year, they still play a significant diversifying role in a portfolio.

Dan and I have talked about this before. Bond prices may have fallen close to their lows, give or take. This means yields, which have risen dramatically, could be near their own peaks. The self-healing process that occurs when higher yields begin to make up for falling prices is now beginning to take hold and it may be that this is the new level around which yields will hover. We’ll see.

Even market darling, Deere, getting crushed today on an earnings beat. Ouch!

An overvalued market, $5 gas and rising, hyperinflation, a tightening Fed and earnings misses by big tech and blue chips is a recipe for disaster. Like the old adage says, "Sell in May and Go Away."

No reason to be invested here until the next Fed move is a cut.

Housing sales down 16%.

The menstrual cycle changes among Hassidic Jewish women was something as well.

Somehow this won't result in falling prices.

New home pricing is going to be based on the cost to build- so labor and materials.

Existing homes will largely stop rising in value as the cost to finance rises. Although supply is severely restricted. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

My agent said it will finally crash summer 2023...by that time we will have had a 2nd interest rate hike.

Are you stoned or pissed off, or both, when you create these postings?

Are you stoned or pissed off, or both, when you create these postings?

Thinking of dropping some money on Twitter at 39 or 40. If Musk follows through on the deal as is (at 54.20), that's about a 40% profit. A big if, yes.

Call options....they may be expensive but a great way to get in.

Looks like my disclosed entry point picks this year are all above water except for VZ. Add in the VZ dividend so far, and you are not doing bad. But on the good side are IBM, GPK, and PYPL. I did not dip into PINS yet, but it is well above the level I said it look attractive a few days ago. Given how poor the market has been this year, I am very happy to be up in my trading portfolio.

Are you stoned or pissed off, or both, when you create these postings?

VZ had a poor quarter and guidance. I do not blame you, but it is a defensive stock with a solid dividend. I am trying to build a full yield portfolio to live on before I can access my retirement money without penalty.

Hoping that fixed income can become a material part of the portfolio again…..