312player wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
It's also why it's bullshit that certain teams tank, promising a "World Series contending team" after years of pain. There is no magic path or guarantee you'll win it all, so you should go for it every year (unless you're the Pirates or A's).
While you're right about tanking not automatically resulting in a World Series appearance, tanking does seem to result in multiple playoff appearances for most teams. If you're a team, like the Sox circa 2016, that hasn't been to the playoffs for eight years despite "going for it" every year, I can see why you would be tempted to try it.
Ive never liked tanking, if you look at the draft over the last 22 years ..you will see the best players are rarely in the top 5..just have to have good scouts and good organization from ownership on down.
I suspect you're right about the draft, but the draft is just one component of the tank, and probably not even the main component at that. For the Sox, the biggest component were the Sale, Eaton, and Quintana trades. Also, they picked up Robert as an international free agent and he appears to be on a higher trajectory than the tank era draft picks (Madrigal and Vaughn).
It obviously hasn't worked out that well for the White Sox thus far, but it worked for the Cubs, it worked for the Astros, and (after a couple decades of trying) it worked for the Royals. Also, there are always at least a handful of teams in the process of doing it, and I suspect they're not all cheap or stupid, but actually have a plan of making it work for them.
To be continually in contention you have to be a team that is rich enough to go out and sign a huge free agent every year (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox) or a team like the Rays (it also looks like the Brewers are trying to follow this model and the A's had success doing this for years) who tries to acquire as many B+ players as possible and then trade them away when they get toward the end of their arbitration years.
As a Sox fan, I have completely lost my taste for the tank and I don't want to see the team engage in another tank for at least the remainder of this decade. However, as long as baseball's economic structure remains what it is, teams are going to keep doing it, and it might actually make rational sense for them to do so.