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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:07 pm 
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a retard wrote:
Current 3M exchange offer: Participate or pass? Deadline, August 29.


What is the exchange offer?

The hearing loss lawsuits look very nasty. This is a stock I would flat avoid. Not sure if their bankruptcy strategy will work.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:09 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Feels like Target is taking the opportunity to blame the market to flow-through a bunch of bad assets and previously deferred losses to blame it on the economy.

Doesn't make a lot of sense that Walmart is OK but Target isn't. Is anybody saying "I'm not going to Target, that's too expensive, let's go to Walmart"?

I think Target is taking a loss cycle for tax purposes and will show huge gains when needed, probably Q1.


Walmart got tagged the prior quarter. I am not 100% but I do not think they get a tax benefit right now (except for accounting purposes) until the merchandise is sold. The write downs are merely an accounting adjustment required under lower of cost or market inventory valuation.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:12 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:35 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


i worked there in high school, as i remember it they wanted to get out of strip malls and make stand alone stores. Like the one in Oak Lawn on 95th and Cicero used to be in a strip mall on the south side of the street, then they built a massive stand alone across the street
I've always thought it was an odd mix of customers
you have people coming in for a 1-2 things standing in line behind an old lady buying 20 cans of canned salmon and some pantyhose on sale that has coupons for everything


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:38 pm 
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i miss it though. it was a fun job. I'm still friends with many of the people i met there
people hated to make the bales, the crushed carboard
i'd get stoned as hell and stand back there for hours blasting tunes and doing it


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:39 pm 
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what about AXDX

got the rug pulled out this morning but still up 15% this week


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:45 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Feels like Target is taking the opportunity to blame the market to flow-through a bunch of bad assets and previously deferred losses to blame it on the economy.

Doesn't make a lot of sense that Walmart is OK but Target isn't. Is anybody saying "I'm not going to Target, that's too expensive, let's go to Walmart"?

I think Target is taking a loss cycle for tax purposes and will show huge gains when needed, probably Q1.


Walmart got tagged the prior quarter. I am not 100% but I do not think they get a tax benefit right now (except for accounting purposes) until the merchandise is sold. The write downs are merely an accounting adjustment required under lower of cost or market inventory valuation.



I was guessing that Target might be tucking away some overvalued inventory to show the profit for their financiers as needed and then blame the loss on the economy for tax purposes.

But, just a guess. I have no first-hand knowledge.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:46 pm 
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Bagels wrote:
i worked there in high school, as i remember it they wanted to get out of strip malls and make stand alone stores.
That was mainly because they wanted drive thru pharmacies, right?

I remember that one at 95th and Cicero. RIP Cupid Candies :(

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:47 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Bagels wrote:
i worked there in high school, as i remember it they wanted to get out of strip malls and make stand alone stores.
That was mainly because they wanted drive thru pharmacies, right?

I remember that one at 95th and Cicero. RIP Cupid Candies :(


the one in Orland shut down too (Cupid )

i think i only went to the Orland one once

i was more a Rainbow cone guy

although their rapid expansion at the moment concerns me


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:50 pm 
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Bagels wrote:
denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


i worked there in high school, as i remember it they wanted to get out of strip malls and make stand alone stores. Like the one in Oak Lawn on 95th and Cicero used to be in a strip mall on the south side of the street, then they built a massive stand alone across the street


They were buying up property, GC'ing their own stores, and then selling them to other people. I'm sure Deni$ would know the tax reason for that.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:10 pm 
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Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:18 pm 
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Bagels wrote:
what about AXDX

got the rug pulled out this morning but still up 15% this week


I have never followed or underwritten the stock. But this falls into the life sciences sector (diagnostics to be exact), and the share trading fits a familiar pattern. As an aside, I underwrite a lot of risks in this sector.

So the entire life sciences sector has been way off its peak, which was driven by Covid and all the hot money flowing into such companies. It has been reported that one third of the space trades below cash value per share.

AXDX has been around a long time, so it is not in the familiar pattern of a recent IPO that was way overpriced and has come down. These guys have a crappy balance sheet financed mainly with convertible debt. They have some other ways they are raising capital, which is necessary because they are blowing through cash to get their product commercialized.

It appears the recent excitement is over their commercialization agreement with Becton Dickinson. Up until now, their revenue growth is way too weak to expect the company to hit operating scale. But they are moving in the right direction. I do not see anywhere that they are giving revenue guidance, so I do not have a clue how fast they expect to ramp up. Analyst estimates for 2023 are not too rosy. But the earnings transcript from 8/15 had a lot of excited analysts on it.

So this is not my type of stock. It is purely speculative. Commercialization roll outs always cost more and take longer than people expect. But it appears the BD agreement is very important. At this size market cap, there is a lot more upside than downside. But you are going to face heavy dilution as they continue to raise capital to operate the company. I would expect a ton of volatility in the shares. If the train leaves the station, you will be happy to own the shares.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:20 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?


I am a DIY guy. I just steam cleaned my sectional and scrubbed down my master shower. I would not have a butler even if I was a billionaire. I would probably still cut my own lawn.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:26 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?


I am a DIY guy. I just steam cleaned my sectional and scrubbed down my master shower. I would not have a butler even if I was a billionaire. I would probably still cut my own lawn.


Thank you for letting me down gently, Deni$.

I guess it's back to Noisewater's sweatshop for me.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:47 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?


I am a DIY guy. I just steam cleaned my sectional and scrubbed down my master shower. I would not have a butler even if I was a billionaire. I would probably still cut my own lawn.


Thank you for letting me down gently, Deni$.

I guess it's back to Noisewater's sweatshop for me.


WHO GAVE YOU ACCESS TO A COMPUTER!!?!!?!?!

I'LL KILL THEM!!

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:48 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?


I am a DIY guy. I just steam cleaned my sectional and scrubbed down my master shower. I would not have a butler even if I was a billionaire. I would probably still cut my own lawn.


Thank you for letting me down gently, Deni$.

I guess it's back to Noisewater's sweatshop for me.


WHO GAVE YOU ACCESS TO A COMPUTER!!?!!?!?!

I'LL KILL THEM!!



This set back a delivery of Johnson's elixir didn't it? Damn supply chain.


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:56 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?


I am a DIY guy. I just steam cleaned my sectional and scrubbed down my master shower. I would not have a butler even if I was a billionaire. I would probably still cut my own lawn.
More Pledge?! I just bought two cans last week, and I don't have any wood in the house!

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:50 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


Haven't their front end sales fallen off in most areas?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:53 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Would you consider employing me as your manservant or butler?


I am a DIY guy. I just steam cleaned my sectional and scrubbed down my master shower. I would not have a butler even if I was a billionaire. I would probably still cut my own lawn.


Thank you for letting me down gently, Deni$.

I guess it's back to Noisewater's sweatshop for me.


WHO GAVE YOU ACCESS TO A COMPUTER!!?!!?!?!

I'LL KILL THEM!!


Do you see the torment that you have left me to face, Deni$?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:54 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


Haven't their front end sales fallen off in most areas?



I don't know but I've heard their new game plan is to develop in-house doctors, sort of like Minute Clinics but a little more extensive.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:59 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


Haven't their front end sales fallen off in most areas?



I don't know but I've heard their new game plan is to develop in-house doctors, sort of like Minute Clinics but a little more extensive.


They seem like they live off of insurance money, so that makes sense. If they can turn a lot of their stores into mini Urgent Care clinics, they might have something, especially in urban areas where there seems to be less competition for that kind of service.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:04 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


Haven't their front end sales fallen off in most areas?


Their most recent quarter ended May 31, they said U.S. retails sales increased 1.0%. Another company I do mot follow closely. I used to own CVS but not for a long time.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:16 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Maybe you could explain this to me. I've never understood the success and growth of Walgreens. At at time (IDK 15 years ago) when traditional retail was dying they built a bunch of brick and motar stores. They're gig was pharmaceutical, but the big box stores jumped into the same waters with seemingly more leverage. How have they been able to grow (or at least sustain)? I'll hang up and listen for your answer.


I always wondered about it to. What Walgreens did very well is snap up prime street corners in their markets. With ongoing prescription drug abuse in this country, their pharmacies are driving foot traffic. Those customers end up buying over priced front end merchandise while in the store.


Haven't their front end sales fallen off in most areas?


Their most recent quarter ended May 31, they said U.S. retails sales increased 1.0%. Another company I do mot follow closely. I used to own CVS but not for a long time.


I was looking at things from a long-term perspective. I think their front end sales aren't what they once were, though I don't follow them as closely as I once did.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:25 pm 
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It’s only about 25% of their business now. I think the CVS/Walgreens growth story has played out. That is why they moving deeper into medical areas.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:49 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
It’s only about 25% of their business now. I think the CVS/Walgreens growth story has played out. That is why they moving deeper into medical areas.


They are both closing, or have closed hundreds of locations in the last three years.

Rite Aid closed 175 so far this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:21 pm 
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Walgreens owns Rite Aid.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:25 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
Walgreens owns Rite Aid.


No, but They did buy most of their east coast locations though.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:34 am 
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Seacrest wrote:
denisdman wrote:
It’s only about 25% of their business now. I think the CVS/Walgreens growth story has played out. That is why they moving deeper into medical areas.


They are both closing, or have closed hundreds of locations in the last three years.

Rite Aid closed 175 so far this year.


bc of looting ?


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:43 am 
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Bagels wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
denisdman wrote:
It’s only about 25% of their business now. I think the CVS/Walgreens growth story has played out. That is why they moving deeper into medical areas.


They are both closing, or have closed hundreds of locations in the last three years.

Rite Aid closed 175 so far this year.


bc of looting ?


Walgreens closed 5 in San Fran late last year because of looting.

Rite Aid has closed some in Manhattan for the same reason. Here is one below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sw8_1RW-qws

But all three chains have over built. The drive thru has cost them all money. Mail order scrips has cost them even more.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 9:20 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Not that big of deal, sales are still steady they just had to write off inventory, this is likely an accounting play.


Yes this is the correct answer. Comps and total sales were up. They took a lot mark downs and wrote down inventory. Nothing to worry about long term.


Thoughts on Bed, Bath and Beyond Deni$?


If you were going to do anything, I would buy put options. Unless they have a recap I think bankruptcy is the most likely option. You cannot short the stock because of the meme craze.


Hope you bought puts yesterday. It’s down over 40% today.

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