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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 9:40 am 
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denisdman wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Not that big of deal, sales are still steady they just had to write off inventory, this is likely an accounting play.


Yes this is the correct answer. Comps and total sales were up. They took a lot mark downs and wrote down inventory. Nothing to worry about long term.


Thoughts on Bed, Bath and Beyond Deni$?


If you were going to do anything, I would buy put options. Unless they have a recap I think bankruptcy is the most likely option. You cannot short the stock because of the meme craze.


Hope you bought puts yesterday. It’s down over 40% today.


This is why I reached out two days ago Deni$

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 9:51 am 
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denisdman wrote:
a genius wrote:
Current 3M exchange offer: Participate or pass? Deadline, August 29.


What is the exchange offer?

The hearing loss lawsuits look very nasty. This is a stock I would flat avoid. Not sure if their bankruptcy strategy will work.


Offer detail below. I am inclined to sell but it is in a taxable account and I have held it forever. And it pays a decent dividend.

Quote:
Exchange details:

·3M Company (3M) is offering to exchange shares of its common stock (symbol - MMM) for all shares of its recently split-off subsidiary, Garden SpinCo Corporation (Garden SpinCo), through a series of agreements and transactions (the Transactions).

·The number of shares of 3M common stock that will be accepted if the exchange offer is completed will depend on the final Exchange Ratio and the number of shares of 3M common stock tendered in the exchange offer.

·Immediately following the completion of the exchange offer, each common share of Garden SpinCo will be converted into the right to receive a number of shares of Neogen Corporation (Neogen) common stock (symbol - NEOG). Cash will be paid in lieu of any fractional shares.

·Accordingly, shares of Garden SpinCo common stock will not be distributed to participants in this exchange offer; instead, participants will receive shares of Neogen common stock upon completion of the Transactions.

·For each $100 in value of 3M common stock accepted for exchange, holders will receive:

¨a value* of approximately $107.53 of Garden SpinCo common stock subject to an upper limit** of 7.3515 shares of Garden SpinCo common stock (shares will not be issued) per share of 3M common stock and will be subject to proration.

¨If the upper limit is in effect, you will receive less than $107.53 of Garden SpinCo common stock for each $100 of 3M common stock tendered, and you could receive much less.

¨3M may accept only a portion of your tendered shares, except beneficial holders of 99 shares or less, in aggregate***, who tender all their shares (an odd-lot tender) will not be subject to proration. Please see the footnote below for the definition of aggregate.

·The indicative exchange ratios and per-share values (as well as the final exchange ratio once it has been determined) can be obtained at http://www.3mneogenexchange.com.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:45 am 
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That should be a tax free exchange. I am with you on dividend payors.

I would have to do a lot of research to see if that exchange makes sense. 3M is a big wildcard right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:59 am 
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I humbly request that everyone reading this buys many 3M products.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:03 am 
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Buy a few Ford Trucks, GM is fine, and a few garage door openers.

Maybe runover one of those green boxes on the corner that have the phone circuits if you want to get an insurance claim on your car - win/win.

Buy a bunch of circuit breakers, just to keep, you never know when you need one.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:18 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
That should be a tax free exchange. I am with you on dividend payors.

I would have to do a lot of research to see if that exchange makes sense. 3M is a big wildcard right now.


Yeah, I meant I considered simply liquidating my position in 3M. But because I have held it so long despite its recent woes it has appreciated nicely. Thus selling would result in a big tax hit.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:15 am 
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So Denis, does Bed, Bath survive to retail another day, or will the latest news spell bankruptcy?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:14 pm 
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Where are we headed Deni$$$

Things the Fed said one year ago:

1. Rates will remain lower for longer

2. Unlikely to raise rates until 2024

3. We believe a recession is unlikely

4. Inflation is transitory and not a problem

5. Inflation should fall to 2% in 2022

Has there ever been a more wrong Fed?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:18 pm 
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Can I borrow some money from you?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:09 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
So Denis, does Bed, Bath survive to retail another day, or will the latest news spell bankruptcy?


It is funny that these idiots bought back about one billion in shares over the past few years, and now they have to beg for a loan to pay suppliers. They have some assets they can sell and a small amount of room to effect a turnaround. But it sure feels like the end is near.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:14 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Where are we headed Deni$$$

Things the Fed said one year ago:

1. Rates will remain lower for longer

2. Unlikely to raise rates until 2024

3. We believe a recession is unlikely

4. Inflation is transitory and not a problem

5. Inflation should fall to 2% in 2022

Has there ever been a more wrong Fed?


They have been awful. Unfortunately traditional monetary policy went out the window starting with Japan. If zero interest rates worked, Japan’s economy would have been growing in a solid manner for two decades. And since Japan showed the way, and Europe went down the negative rate route, the folly got worse. The U.S. played games since the subprime crisis with debt monetization (QE). They are allowing the politicians to spend money poorly with no market repercussions. The market should be setting interest rates but instead the Fed is doing it.

Thus we get rapid inflation from non stop government spending and a massive increase in the money supply along with above market minimum wages and lots of incentives for people to leave the workforce. Then we have policies that restrict things like moving goods (pipelines) and producing hydrocarbons. It is a perfect storm of stupidity.

The government did much worse in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:16 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
Can I borrow some money from you?


I am starting to get decent rates from my savings accounts. I sure am happy to sit on lots of cash reserves. I was thinking of blindly buying $10k in a total stock market index per month in perpetuity to start dollar cash averaging my cash into this market.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:21 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Can I borrow some money from you?


I am starting to get decent rates from my savings accounts. I sure am happy to sit on lots of cash reserves. I was thinking of blindly buying $10k in a total stock market index per month in perpetuity to start dollar cash averaging my cash into this market.


OK, but can you Venmo me ten bucks so I can buy some socks?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:37 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Can I borrow some money from you?


I am starting to get decent rates from my savings accounts. I sure am happy to sit on lots of cash reserves. I was thinking of blindly buying $10k in a total stock market index per month in perpetuity to start dollar cash averaging my cash into this market.


You should if you have it available. Depending on fees, do $2500/week.

The rebound is a long way off.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:52 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Can I borrow some money from you?


I am starting to get decent rates from my savings accounts. I sure am happy to sit on lots of cash reserves. I was thinking of blindly buying $10k in a total stock market index per month in perpetuity to start dollar cash averaging my cash into this market.


OK, but can you Venmo me ten bucks so I can buy some socks?


If you picked yourself up by your own bootstraps and sold apples on the corner, he would buy one from you on his way to the club.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:59 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Can I borrow some money from you?


I am starting to get decent rates from my savings accounts. I sure am happy to sit on lots of cash reserves. I was thinking of blindly buying $10k in a total stock market index per month in perpetuity to start dollar cash averaging my cash into this market.


OK, but can you Venmo me ten bucks so I can buy some socks?


Sure just PM me.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:00 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Can I borrow some money from you?


I am starting to get decent rates from my savings accounts. I sure am happy to sit on lots of cash reserves. I was thinking of blindly buying $10k in a total stock market index per month in perpetuity to start dollar cash averaging my cash into this market.


You should if you have it available. Depending on fees, do $2500/week.

The rebound is a long way off.


That is a sounder strategy but I am too lazy to administer that plan weekly. I do not stash the cash in a brokerage account so I need to transfer it in from my savings.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:08 pm 
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Interest rates continue to rise

Home sales are tanking

Major retailers cutting orders

Recycling markets are dropping and commodities are stacking up


Where are we headed next Deni$

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:23 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Interest rates continue to rise

Home sales are tanking

Major retailers cutting orders

Recycling markets are dropping and commodities are stacking up


Where are we headed next Deni$

Hopefully to a Republican congress followed by a DeathSantis Presidency.


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:46 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Interest rates continue to rise

Home sales are tanking

Major retailers cutting orders

Recycling markets are dropping and commodities are stacking up


Where are we headed next Deni$


I won’t speak for Deni$. But when I push off on the water slide, I assume I cannot stop.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:40 pm 
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There is certainly a lot of noise. I know unemployment is a lagging indicator, but I just cannot see a major recession with such low unemployment coupled with a massive amount of unfilled job openings.

Low interest rates fed (pun intended) rapidly rising home prices, and there was always going to be a correction in that space. Things like retailers canceling orders has a lot to do changing consumer buying patterns as the country opened back up. Retailers were stocking Covid goods like home improvement products. That spending has shifted to eating out and travel.

Consumers have been resilient. They are the bedrock of the U.S. economy.

But the news is scary.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:30 pm 
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You are more optimistic than I am denis.

And you don't even seem all that optimistic.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:38 pm 
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Hell is coming to breakfast.

And I hope they like Pumpkin Spice bagels because that is all my son could find at the store.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:58 pm 
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I don’t think unemployment is going to stay low. Why would it?


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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:31 am 
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Spaulding wrote:
I don’t think unemployment is going to stay low. Why would it?

I believe that unemployment is artificially low statistically. If they counted partial FTEs, the number would be much higher. Between the undereducated working in retail/food who are limited to 28 hours a week for insurance reasons, to people of my ilk who have used ACA as a way to go freelance (either sole proprietor or LLC) and work 30% but keep the overhead markup, the number of hours being worked divided by 37.5-40 would shown a higher "underemployment" rate.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:30 am 
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There are various metrics on unemployment (link below) The one widely reported in the financial is not understated, it is simply one definition of unemployment. Of course labor force participation and people not working for work are factors in it, but it simply is what it is.

There are more job openings than people looking for work. The current unemployment rate is below what many consider to even be possible i.e. below the natural rate. Unemployment will go up simply because it is at an unsustainably low level. Regardless anything below 5% is pretty healthy.

https://unemploymentdata.com/what-is-u- ... yment/#six

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:41 am 
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I'd estimate that wages have increased 15% in the last 2 years. That would be across the board for new and current employees.

You can't hire someone in at $20/hr that is doing the same job as someone that has been there 3 years making $18.50. So now you have to raise their wages to keep the pay structure appropriate.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:05 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Hell is coming to breakfast.

And I hope they like Pumpkin Spice bagels because that is all my son could find at the store.


Were they gluten free?

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:08 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd estimate that wages have increased 15% in the last 2 years. That would be across the board for new and current employees.

You can't hire someone in at $20/hr that is doing the same job as someone that has been there 3 years making $18.50. So now you have to raise their wages to keep the pay structure appropriate.


Big article in the WSJ on Friday about that point. Funny enough, the lower income folks have received larger wage increases than the top folks over the past two years.

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 Post subject: Re: Ask DENI$
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:15 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd estimate that wages have increased 15% in the last 2 years. That would be across the board for new and current employees.

You can't hire someone in at $20/hr that is doing the same job as someone that has been there 3 years making $18.50. So now you have to raise their wages to keep the pay structure appropriate.


Big article in the WSJ on Friday about that point. Funny enough, the lower income folks have received larger wage increases than the top folks over the past two years.


I also read many times how unions have clauses that give raises when minimum wage or other wage metrics go up.

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