Welcome one and all to the official Breeders' Cup 2008 thread. Post your thoughts on the races, trifecta combos, longshot picks, etc.

Here's a little background on the track. I do my betting at home via twinspires.com, and they are affiliated with brisnet.com. Brisnet.com is further affiliated with a handicapping tool called AllWays and those folks send me material in the mail periodically... I thought I would share a little bit of their paper with the folks on this board.



First off, the meet is officially happening at Oak Tree @ Santa Anita... this is their fall meet and was created in 2007 after they installed the all-weather track surface. Past performances will treat the Oak Tree meet as essentially a separate track from Santa Anita. The track also has a "Hillside Turf Course" which will be used in the Filly & Mare Turf, the Turf Sprint, and the BC Turf. The course has a slightly downhill slope before it crosses over the dirt (all-weather) track and joins with the main oval turf course. The Hillside Turf Course has the only right hand turn at any thoroughbred track in the country. This may be an advantage to foreign shippers. You can see this right hand turn in this video.

One statistical analysis is very revealing on dirt sprints (like the Filly & Mare Sprint on Friday and the BC Sprint Saturday.) They analyzed Santa Anita before the all-weather surface was installed, and found the runner style impact values as follows: Early (E) 1.65, Early Presser (EP) 1.34, Presser (P) .99, Sustainer (S) .59. This follows typical southern California tracks that favor early speed. When they reduced this analysis to only high caliber races, the results were: E 1.29, EP .83, P .78, S 1.2. This added some impact to the sustainer role in high caliber races. When they ran a high caliber analysis on the AWT, they got: E .8, EP .51, P 1.26, S 1.32. This is obviously a dramatic shift to support sustainer running styles... this shift was present but less pronounced for routes (Juvy Fillies, Ladies Classic, Dirt Mile, Juvy, Marathon, Classic) which were E 1.25, EP 1.04, P 1.13, S .82. They found no bias towards post position in the sprints, and a slight negative bias to being on the outside in routes.

Turf Sprints (Turf Sprint on Saturday) come in E 1.43, EP 1.06, P 1.13, S .71. They found no post position bias for horses in spots 1 through 10, but horses in posts 11 and out have returned $4.53 on a $2 win bet. They theorize that this is because of the right hand turn coming out of the chute. Turf Route (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvy filly turf, Juvy Turf, BC Mile, BC Turf) numbers were not posted but they say that the running style bias was pretty even with a slight disadvantage towards S horses. No post position bias was found.

65-70% of Breeders' Cup races since 2000 have yielded $2 win payoffs of $10 or greater, exacta payoffs of $100 or greater, trifecta payouts of $1000 or greater, and superfectas $5000 or greater. They expect this to continue in 2008 as Santa Anita has historically provided big payoffs in the Breeders' Cup and secondly because of the difficulty in analyzing races on all-weather surfaces. One factor in the big payoffs could be due to the American betting public's unfamiliarity with foreign horses. Foreign horses typically do not have the same past performance information and are often summarized with very little information. It helps to have some sort of speed figure to use as a comparison. Also, look for foreign shippers that are on Lasix for the first time (Lasix is a blood thinner to prevent the horse from bleeding internally after racing -- horses often see a performance boost from using it.) Finally, remember to look at class with the foreign horses -- you can get a rudimentary view by looking at purse payouts (most forms will put the US Dollar equivalent of their race in the form.)

Also of note, steroids are banned for the first time this year and horses will be subject to random drug testing (maybe jockeys will be too??)

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I hate the SA turf course. That goofy run into the first turn is one of the worst designs ever.

I'll have more thoughts on the BC. Looks like local horse Lewis Michael is entered in the Dirt mile and Sprint. He's all but assured to go in the Mile and looking at the field - could be the favorite.

It's my 2nd "SuperBowl" - Love the Breeders.
I'll be at Trackside in AH Thursday night for the "inside scoop" and any thoughts from there I'll post here. I'll focus on the Satuday card as I can't make the Friday stuff.

BC updates for Sunday Oct 19th:

* Zenyatta will not run in the Classic, but will instead go in the Ladies Classic on Friday and will likely be the favorite. She is 8-0 in her lifetime starts.
* Awesome Gem is listed as a 50/50% for the Classic or the Classic Mile. He's raced on both dirt and grass well, but has raced on grass once since 2006. Trainer Craig Dollase retains his option to chose which race to run in.
* Red Giant is out of the Turf race. He has a fever and will likely be retired from racing said trainer Todd Pletcher.
* A special Jockey Legends race will be run on Saturday starring Angel Cordero Jr., 65; Jerry Bailey, 45; Sandy Hawley, 59; Gary Stevens, 45; Pat Day, 55; Jacinto Vasquez, 64, Julie Krone, 45, and Chris McCarron, 53. Bailey drew the favorite in the seven-furlong race, Dee Dee's Legacy.
* There is a concern about the handle of the event due to the downturn in the economy. Many tracks have seen even a double digit percentage decrease over the last few months, although for the big events, the numbers seem to be holding.
* Trainer Doug O'Neill has been placed on probation for one year due to one of his horses testing positive for illegal drugs, specifically a "Milkshake." His correspodning 30 day suspension has been delayed until after the Breeders' Cup, though some officials say he better watch his ass.
* Pat Day still sucks.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I'll be honest, I'm having trouble making heads or tails of these cards. I'll take a few days this week and do some serious studying, but I'm not going full-out intensive like I did for the Kentucky Derby.

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Fire Phil Emery

Hawkeye your right about the turf course.I believe I had a horse make a wrong turn on the SOB
Friday
Filly and Mare sprint
Indian Blessing looks tough ,but Zaftig did it before
Juvenille Fillies Turf
If Sugar Mom gets in (Calabrese/Catalano) breed for the lawn If not Oui Say Oui Euro invader
Juvenille Fillies 1-1/16
Dream Express come on Albarado!
Filly & Mare 1-1/4 Turf
Forever Together Cha Cha'n down the LANE!!!!!!
Ladies Classic 1-1/8
Cocoa Beach stuns Zenyatta
These can change if the don't get in!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Filly and Mare Sprint

2007 BC Filly Juvenile winner Indian Blessing looks to tower over the field here, and for good reason. She’s won 8 of ten starts lifetime, with the other two races being places to pretty damn good fillies. She took to sprinting in the summer, winning her last three races by a combined 18 ½ lengths.

But… one common feature of this first ever polytrack Breeders Cup is going to be guessing how horses take to the fake stuff. Indian Blessing actually has run on poly once at the beginning of her three year old campaign, winning, but just barely, in a 7F race at Santa Anita in January. She was a 1-9 favorite in that Grade 2; she’ll be in against tougher here. Aside from the surface, she’ll be facing an absolutely lunatic pace set-up, something she hasn’t had to worry about in her previous races, most of which have been 6 horses or less. I think she can win from off the pace, and of course in a 6F race a fast pace isn’t the end of the world, but it’s not ideal for her either. That’s a lot to ask for even money.

Predicted second favorite Intangaroo is a toss for me. Despite having raced almost exclusively on polytracks of one sort or another, her best efforts were actually at Churchill and Saratoga, dirt tracks both, and I’m honestly not sold on her effort in either of those Grade 1 races, despite her having won both. She may also prefer 7F, and they haven’t added one of those to the BC calendar (yet).

The wildcard in this race is the Argentinean raced, Kentucky-bred, boringly named Lady Sprinter. The DRF set her pre-entry odds at 30-1, British book Ladbrokes had her as low as 8-1, behind only Indian Blessing and Intangaroo. She’s 8 for 9 lifetime but lightly raced this year, and her one time out on turf was an absolute bomb. She did turn out an absolute bullet of a workout on the 17th, running 4 furlongs at 45 and 1/5th seconds on the poly. I’d avoid if she’s dead on the board, but she might be worth mixing to exotics if she’s in the 8-1/20-1 range.

My choice here is Zaftig, one of the two horses to beat Indian Blessing already (granted, at 1 mile) and the horse, IMO, most likely to overcome the speed burn-up at the front. She may need more distance, but then again, the races she’s won at a mile she always seems to he up a head at the 6F marker. She may not handle the poly, but then again, we don’t know who will. Both the DRF and Ladbrokes predict 8-1, which sounds optimistic to me, but I’d be willing to bet this anywhere above 5-1.

Theoretical $30 budget:

$2 Tri part-wheel: 6/5-12/4-5-9-12 = $12
$2 Exacta 6/4-5-9-12 = $8
$10 win 6 = $10

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Fire Phil Emery

Looking at Zaftig, my only issue is the shipping since the horse has been based in NY for its whole career. The workout over the track is reassuring that she shipped well. She has the perfect running style for this race though. The layoff is another concern.

Ventura is a very nice horse who loves the Poly. I'm not sure the distance is best, but she will be full of run come late.

A horse I didnt see mentioned by either of you was the 8 Tiz Elemental. She won a Grade 3 sprint over the course in the spring, followed it up with 4 good efforts including a strong second in a quick 6.5 furlong race. I'll make picks later.

I like Ventura, and included her in the bottom half of the exotics, but she'll likely be a shorter price than I can support considering the post position. As for Tis Elemental, I'm just not sure her best race is good enough unless all the rest have off days. That could happen if they all hate the poly. But there are some other horses I didn't mention- like Indyanne- that set a pretty good baseline for what will be needed at 7F on the poly, and I don't think Tis Elemental will get above that baseline.

I also wanted to clear up one thing that I screwed up- the F & M sprint is 7 furlongs, not 6. I was under the impression it was 6, although I'm not sure why. It doesn't change my analysis, although it does cause me downgrade Lady Sprinter a bit as she hasn't gone further than 5 furlongs.

I'm not handicapping the Juvenile Fillies Turf, although I will say that the Catalano entry Sugar Mom certainly looks as good as any.

Juvenile Fillies

All the polytracks have a tendency towards favoring horses from off the pace, and while Santa Anita's new Pro-Ride track isn't as pronounced as some, it does become clearer as the races get longer. Add in a couple of horses hell-bent for the lead early and you have a recipe for closers in the late going, and that's why I'd be looking at here.

But let's start with the speed. C.S. Silk has won on the poly before at Arlington in the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes back in September, setting honest fractions in a one-turn mile in route to a 6 length win. She'd never gotten to the front before, but the pace was honest, so there's no reason to think she got lucky there. Palacio de Amor has outrun her odds her whole career, but she'll need the front again here. Be Smart will contribute as well.

There are some interesting things going on breeding wise as a couple of big-name but still relatively unknown studs have progeny here. The previously mentioned Be Smart is daughter of Smarty Jones; the Irish filly Pursuit of Glory is the daughter of Fusiachi Pegasus, who has been producing for longer but is still not well charted. I'll be paying careful consideration to the foreign horses in most races, but Pursuit of Glory looks overmatched here as she's never gone over 6F; she'll also be foregoing lasix.

I'd love Doremifasolatido if she wasn't starting the race from the far outside; I don't think I trust Eibar Coa to bring her in before the first turn, and all could be lost if she ends of six wide entering the backstretch. Any number of horses could step up, and a few have practically no records; Dave's Revenge won a maiden special weight, took two months off, and now is racing in the Breeders Cup.

All signs point to Stardom Bound, but really that seems too easy. She loves the poly, has a pair of Grade 1 wins under her belt, and will be coming from off the pace. She certainly doesn't mind fighting through traffic, as she's been in fields 12 deep, dropped to last, and passed them all. And she's handled the distance. What's not to love? Well, the price, which may be even money or lower.

I'm leaning heavily towards Sky Diva, but I can't help but think that there's a lack-of-info bias at play; this is her third race, and her second was better than her first, so there's a tendency to want to connect the dots and say she'll keep improving. First time out on the poly going further than she's gone before is a lot to ask, but 6-1 or so seems fair, and that's where I see her going off. But I'd only dabble in the win betting here, if at all; let's see if we can't beat the favorite.

Theoretical $30 budget.

$6 Exacta 4-8-12-13/10= $24

$1 Tri-Wheel 10/4-13/6-8-9 = $6

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Fire Phil Emery

I think Stardom bound is an asskicker - had no pace to run at last race and still won by open lengths. The horse I am looking at for value is the 12 Dream Empress. I like the way she's run on lasix and made a nice middle move after slow fractions to take command of a race at Keeneland. Might not be fast enough here to win, but at a price, may consider a play. As a longshot, the rail horse Evita Argentina looks like she wants to go longer, has a win over the Del mar course and is training well. She also beat Stardom Bound earlier in the year so she has some talent.

Indyanne is likely out of the F&M Sprint, so adjust accordingly. I do think that helps Tis Elemental's chances.

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Fire Phil Emery

Breeders Notes from Trackside discussion with oddsmaker Joe Kristufek and 2 other guys. One was a jockeys agent and I didn’t catch the name. Kristufek was live from Santa Anita:

Here are some notes – the first were general. As I re-read what I posted, it’s not that useful – but there are a few horses to throw out.. I was just writing what they said – I’m not a reporter, but I don’t think they will be misquoted. lol

- European shippers have not looked early this week, but have improved in getting used to the Calif. Temps/air/polytrack.
- Juv races can be head scratchers this year.

Race Specific –Friday

3. F&M Sprint – 6. Laffig may be upsetter here. 12-5-3-6 are the keys.

4. Juv Fill Turf – Laragh may never give up lead. Only caution is it did have a recent race. That last race was really good though.

5. Juv Fill. – Stardom bound – put in top 3, it will cash. Take a flier on Black Majic Mama.

6. Filly & Mare turf – Halfway to heaven is on the decline. Forever Together – distance may be an issue. Wait a while is 3 for 3 at SA. In general the 3 guys had no strong opinion.

7. Filly Classic – Zenyatta may be best horse. Music Note is top notch – they said “don’t bet against her”. Cocoa Beach should be in top 3.

Race Specific – Saturday

1. Marathon – They hate this race. Save your money. One person they know has Sixies Icon as the Best Bet of the day. Church Service is a good chance to be long shot.
2. 2. Turf Sprint longshot – One Union. Idiot proof has had bad workouts. 8-14-10-12.
3. Mile – One of the 3 loves Well Armed. Slews Tiznow has hot trainer. If Two Step Salsa has lead it may not be caught. Mast Track has ¼ hoof crack but will not scratch. They say Pyro doesn’t like the poly. My Pal Charlie has great workouts but bad post.
4. Mile Turf - Whatsthescript has Gomez and they all like him. Kip Deville is also loved because of trainer Dutrow.
5. Juvie – Squire Ellie has had bad form lately. Street Hero looks sharp. Midshipman is not good. Munnings – one of them did not like him. West Side Bernie – long shot. Bushranger – take a look at him
6. Juvie Turf – They all loved Westphalia. Coronet is in on a Supp $$ - watch. Paddy the Pro- Gomez up. Skip date is “full of himself” in workouts. Grand Adventure should cash. Bittel Road will press for lead.
7. Sprint – Street boss good workouts. Fabulous strike – good connections and is ready. Midnigh luke – had a “top 5 workout of all time?” won the race last year. Wise guys like Fatal Bullet.
8. Turf – Grand Couteire is in great shape. Winchester – pass. Sping house – use in gimmicks. Eagle Mountain is a sleeper. Soldier of fortune has a chance to cash.
9. Classic – Curlin – duh. But we know all horses can be beat. Go Between will finish strong. Toss out Casino Drive. Duke o Marmalade- Trainer loves this horse. (ed -don’t they all?) but it may be tired. Ravens Pass should be used in gimmicks.

Here's my quick reads @ work:

3: I really liked the 2 Indyanne, but she's scratched. Indian Blessing will be in there but I'll take Lady Sprinter for a little value

4: Laragh looks strong here.... will bet if I can get decent odds, but unlikely.

5: Dream Princess solid. If CS Silk can repeat the AP performance, she will be there too. Stardom Bound to finish in the money as well.

6: Mauralanka is my pick edging out Halfway to Heaven.

7: Big Z to pull it off. May lap the field.

Alright back to work....

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Vince with the good call on Ventura and nailed that she'd be hot late.

Hey! Jessica Pacheco is on ESPN 2!!!!!!

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Fire Phil Emery

Didn't like the price I got but it's a winner. That 5 wide move was very very impressive. Indian Blessing looked good too, just too much horse to compete with and a 44 1/2 mile didn't help.

I did box her with Tis Elemental who got killed at the start.

How'd you like the exacta in the Juv Fillies? Look up.

If I'm a betting man, Zenyatta is my horse of the year even though she's a poly specialist. Cocoa Beach gave her a run but just couldn't get there. ( I had that exacta too and it paid nothing)

Here's the youtube video for those who haven't seen it yet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-W7WrdDgg0
Nice finish going five wide against that company. This split Breeders' Cup thing sucks for those of us that have to work on Friday. I'm not a fan of trying to stretch this into a two day affair at all... it was a great thing for one day, one full card.
I'll be back on tomorrow morning with my real handicapping (now that I have more than ten minutes to look at the program -- though I don't promise I will do any better!)

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

The fellas from Trackside did well for y'all on Friday. I see above the ladies Classic was the trifecta.

Joey DAK could take a few lessons from me and Irish Boy.

breeders cup picks


based on minimal research and no prior track record

race 1: Big Booster

2: Fleeting Spirit (ill take the product from the emerald isle)

3: Surf Cat

4: Goldikova

5: Midshipman

6: westpahlia

7: cost of freedom, midnight lute, fatal bullet

8: soldier of fortune

9: curlin

10: georgie boy, into mischief

11: nownownow, tres barachos

Marathon 1.5
Zappa wire to wire
Turf Sprint
True to Tradition a Woodbine horse what am I crazy
Dirt Mile
After Wayne and Frank didn,t show up Well Armed is my best bet
Juvenile 1-1/16
Square Eddie loved his race at Keenland toughest race on the card to Handicap
Juvenille Turf
Grand Adventure I like another horse from Canada?????
Breeders Sprint
Cost of Frredom a MONSTER
!.5 Turf
Red rocks... Winchester perfecta time
Classic
Curlin

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

In a hurry so I'm just going to post the winners for you:

Sixties Icon
Mr. Nightlinger
Lewis Michael
Daytona
Square Eddie
Donativum
Fatal Bullet
Soldier of Fortune
Go Between

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

unfortunately the OTB wasn't open early enough for me to go bet (I'm getting my house ready for 40 people tonight) - here were the plays I penciled down

Win bet on the first horse and exacta box with top and others
Marathon: Cedar Mountain / Church Service
Turf Sprint: Fleeting Spirit / Storm Treasure
Dirt Mile: Slew's Tiznow/ Lewis Michael
Mile Turf- passing race (maybe small play on US Ranger)
Juvenile - Midshipman / Gallant Sun
Juv Turf - Grand Adventure
Sprint - Cost of Freedom
Turf - conduit
Classic - Go Between/ Champs Elysses

I think the turf mile is the most interesting race on the schedule today, with a lot of horses I can make plausible cases for. Three months ago, Kip Deville would have been regarded as an easy favorite, but infrequent races and a poor showing last out at Woodbine has some worried. Precious Kitten will be the feminist's choice today, racing with the boys in a race were her best effort could conceivably win. Shipper Goldikova is the moneyline favorite and may be a good indicator of how the Euros will perform later on today. Whatsthescript tooks good on the outside. War Monger has turned in a pair of nice performances, and his best work has come at Santa Anita, so even he can't be overlooked. Thorn Song will contribute to the pace and may just go the whole way. Awesome Gem, who showed in the BC Classic last year, is the longest odds on the board at 20-1. This is a good group.

One of my (sometimes) preferred handicapping methods is to run a line through the last race of each horse. Sometimes too much stock is placed in a single event, and I don't believe that form cycles are quite as important as they used to be when horses ran every two weeks. I'm going to employ that method here and take the hopefully gerous 5-1 price on Kip Deville.

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Fire Phil Emery

The turf mile to me is always a crap shoot. Because the Euro's love that distance, it's hard to get a read. I can see the outside horse....the horse I would put a small amount on seems to be improving and might like more distance.

I had $15 on Go Between to place. That was Harry's tip for me that bastage

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I know you don't know much about thoroughbred racing (that's not a knock on you; some people like tea, others like coffee), but that really was indefensible advise. There are, very occasionally, times and places for place bets, but almost never on longshots because of the way tracks take money out of the pot. Harry claims to be a bit of a thorougbred expert, and I know he's even done seminars at Arlington, but if that was advise he gave to the public, it was extremely poor. I assume the reason he'd do that is because he liked Curlin so much, but it that was the case, why not play a straight-up $15 Curlin/Go Between exacta?

As it was, an extremely logical trifecta payed about $2,600 for a $1 bet. Why was it logical? If you were inclined to bet against Curlin, you box the three best Euros (Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass, and Duke of Marmalade) in the top two spots and press the ALL button in the third spot. It'd cost you $60.

I didn't do that, mostly because I had an extremely small bankroll as this came around and, like I said, I hadn't been following the Breeders Cup process as closely as I should have been. I bet a pittance on Duke of Marmalade, who finished a well-beaten 5th (I think), but the Breeders Cup marks the unofficial start of Kentucky Derby season, as Midshipman took the BC Juvenille. The BC Juvenille winner usually opens the pools as the favorite to win the Derby, and he almost never wins (2007 was an exception.) With this year's BC on poly, I imagine that pattern will hold. The first Saturday in May is the most profitable day of the year in horse racing; let's see if we can't beat the favorite.

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Fire Phil Emery

Geez Couldn't pick my butt yesterday!!!! Will have to sell a kidney. Couldn't figure out crap.Bad Day at Oak Tree

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

SHARK tells me it has only happened 4 times in history!

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas