Just flipped some work till tomorrow (always a good strategy) and so now what to do...what to do...?

Oh, I know-Keeneland

Race 4 crazy amount of speed here, fractions are going to be lit...WPS wagers on the 6-Kenwick and 7-Xtremes Smokeshow to come off the pace, as well as the breeding on the 9-Dorothy Crawfoot

just dipping my toes in the water until I can get on top of this program

Great start!!!!

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2018
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who needs work, right?

threw in a 7 all exacta too

Really Nice!!!!

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2018
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Race 5...morning line odds are questionable here...LJ's Emma should not have been 10/1 and the public is showing that (by the way, the pool for that last race was about half a million dollars...you can pick up some cash around this place)

anyway the 4-LJs Emma is 2-1...but trainer Wesley Ward is the Babe Ruth of Kee turf sprints...he has 46 wins...the next two have 15 combined wins...his 7-Daring Do is still up there at 7-1

small Win/Show on the 4 5, and 8 (which is paying slightly more than the Place, or 2nd, wager)

Throw a dart in race 6...boxing the 1- Pour some Wisdom...interesting debut..., 6-Plagne Champaign...ran a decent 3rd at Churchill which transfers well to this course, 11-Easy St....Tylers won already today, and 12-Verlaine for trainer Cox

sorry if that dart i threw landed on your foot, sure as hell didn't hit the board

anyway Race 7 starts the late P4...Manny Wah, Top Gunner and Sibelius all raced in this contest a year ago and all finished in the top 4...should attract most of the money..keying on the 3-Sibelius in a trifecta box

Late Pick 4
2, 3, 5, 7, 8 / 2, 7, 9 / 1, 5, 7 / 2, 5, 9, 13

Candied is a serious animal. She looked like Secretariat going around that last turn and she has no clue what she's doing out there, green as hell, refusing to flip leads. She's one to be reckoned with going forward.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Race 10...so out of the horizontals...but still have strong opinions about this race the 5 and the 9 are deserving of their attention...however some will be over looked..the 13-Drakon as an AE particularly..last 4 races had increasing speed numbers and just won at Saratoga...the 8-Colesso gets a top jock and out of Street Boss, huge Sire influence here...and I keep coming back to the 6-No one to Blame

WPS 13, 8 and 6

she did look good, but those were 2yr olds she beat on a small field that has never run that far, so...I'd keep an eye on her..but let's be careful how we use the "S" word (points towards avatar)

I'm going to the first 6-7 races Saturday with friends. Any picks?

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

3rd Race: I think 6-Three Polks should be firing his best shot to break his maiden tomorrow.

I'm not saying either of these horses have the best chance to win their respective races, but I do think they will both outrun their likely post-time odds which should be quite long:

4th Race: 12-Lilly Lane

6th Race- 6-Olympic Runner

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Saturday

1st race…like the 3-Penny prospect, horses coming out of Indy are having increasing success here at Kee, plus a vulnerable favorite

Race 2 the 1-Linzer should attract attention based on two really good runs…I like the 6-Gallant Mischief out of Kee best Sire Into Mischief

Race 3 as noted above for Sire reasons 2-Devil Blue Dress as well as JORR’s pick the 6-Three Polks (maybe they were brothers)

Race 4- 1-Willakia gets Gaffalione aboard and should be finishing best of all…the 10-Cupids Strike gets Velazquez who won several yesterday…her last two would win here

Speed wasn’t working yesterday but that Bias may change…looks like a great day, have fun and good luck

I'm betting minimums, mostly hanging out with friends, eating burgoo, and enjoying the female scenery. $45 for a grandstand ticket, burgoo, and a diet coke, not a bad day even though it's chilly out.

JORR's horse in the 3rd won, the 10 and 12 in the 4th both scratched. I liked the 5 in the 4th but I wasn't going to bet it at 4/5, I bet the 6 to show and he finished well back.

_________________
"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

Down $3 after 5. Not horrible so far.

_________________
"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

working, but a couple longshots today

1st...10 Blocked ...early speed gets it done
3rd...6-Coexist
8th...11-Rarify comes off the bench for Ward, will be cold due to the layoff...worth 6/1 at least

get rich!

3rd Race: I'm against Lightline. 3 and 7.

4th Race: Willow Bend is a live longshot.

6th Race: Dornoch should win this race.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Wed the 18th...Captain's log...

Race 1 small WPS on the 1 (finished 3rd $7.86,2 (nope) and the 10 (Which is currently paying more to come in 3rd as opposed to 2nd) Finished 3rd
Race 2 is going to be solid...expecting a very fast pace early with the 7-Blue Kentucky (great form/two 2nd's and a 1st here at Kee) running down a solid 6-Slam Dunk Sermon

try to get some more thoughts before i leave

Race3 I think the 1-East Shore on the rail is set up for victory...the 8-I Feel the Need out of tough Keeneland sire Keen Ice probably will be the favorite...I also like the 9-Effacious...bettors will fall asleep on a horse that has never run on dirt, should run very well here

Race 4...The 7 Such Sounds looks best on paper, out of Cairo prince another strong kee sire...will include in a skinny late pick 5...don't sleep on the 1-Wits and Wagers...huge $$$...horses coming out of 1 turn miles win this type of race almost a third of the time, plus the rail has an astonishing win %

Late P5
1, 4, 7 / 7, 9, 11 / 1, 4, 6 / 4, 5, 12 / 2, 6, 9

knock em down

Thursday Late Pick 5 thoughts

Race 5- Large historical advantage in large field turf sprint-regardless of class-goes to post 3-4-5…and will often lead to big payouts…average winner in 2YO Turf sprints is 9-1 and experienced horses are 5x’s more likely to win over 1st time starters (Fall Meet)

(Keeneland has an awesome database on their site with all this searchable info)

The 5-Into Stars fits nicely and has that sweet post…the 6 Dr. Ray D drops in with some solid speed numbers….the 3-Lyrical Pardon could also benefit on the drops and the post draw…and the 11-Two Sip Sally finished 2nd to a saltier group last out


Race 6 the 4-Shooters shoot may end up being my single…the 3-The Queens Jules intrigues…last time on a fast track popped some good numbers and is 4/4 ITM at this odd 7 furlong distance

Race 7…large field going 1 1/16 on the turf…the 1-MacKillop, 3-Clydes Got a Gun and the 10-American Diamond are the few that have raced and done well at this distance..the 4 is a solid finisher but I beleve these 3 to be better

Race 8…wanted to single the 11-Winnemac Ave….but the 4-Jr’s Gift last out was impressive and the 1-Princely, coming out of 1-turn miles bode well here as does the rail

Race 9 Remember large historical advantage in large field turf sprint-regardless of class-goes to post 3-4-5…and will often lead to big payouts…average winner in 2YO Turf sprints is 9-1 and experienced horses are 5x’s more likely to win over 1st time starters (Fall Meet)

I think the 4-Wonder Wave checks all the boxes and is in a sweet post…the 2-Modern Sound drops into this spot and fits (not sure about the rider in this type of race)…and the 10-Cloudwalker has been training well and gets a solid jock…the 9-Joke Master will also be in the mix….his trainer, Maker, has 5 of these won already

Some accountability

Anyone playing today or like anything?

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2018
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Tough Little Nut in the seventh.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

i had the 10, who finished 3rd. that tri gonna pay...

At this point Joel is nearly unbettable.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

While I wonder how he falls from your pick to click to "nearly unbettable" after just one race, it does appear he is not having a good year and an especially poor KEE meet. https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Resul ... 183&rbt=TB

Sad.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

I'm not a jockey bettor. I give very little weight to riders. Of course, I feel more confident with Irad than Heman Harkie, but the jockey is priced in and if you bet every Irad mount you're running negative ROI.

I'm not sure what happened with Rosario. He used to be one of the best. He's not that old. Not even 40, I don't think. Guys like Castellano and Velasquez are older and still going strong. Joel can still wind one up on occasion, usually in a turf sprint, but overall, it's like he's lost out there.

Tough Little Nut was easily the best horse in that race yesterday. He lost. Okay, fine. That's the game. If the best horse won every time, they'd all be 1/9. But Joel had to really work to lose that race. First, he willingly gave up position from the rail. Then he ran up on a horse and had to check out the back. Finally, he did wind him up and went on a powerful brush five wide off the last turn, but after all that had happened before it just wasn't going to be sustainable.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

I don't know a ton, but I told my son that JORR would not be happy with that jockey going into the 1st turn and then how wide he took him and got hung out to dry.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

penultimate Friday

Race 1 older Maidens…experience matters here, only 3 of 55 winners were “firsters”…4-Halmstad ran well here two weeks ago and popped a bullet in between…cheap though

Race 2 might take a while to finish…glacier pace the 3 will be the deserved favorite bu t I like both the 7 and the 9 at a big price

Race 3-Turf 1 1/16…these maidens go in a large field and the 5-Saltwater Taffy ran well at Kentucky Downs, but got beat by a filly headed to the Breeders’ Cup…the 11-Moonlight Gambler will be overbet off her Graded Stakes effort last out…the 8-Celtic Charm could score on debut for trainer Walsh…her daddy, Justify, has sired winners left and right…and his purchase prices for his yearlings at the recent Fasig-Tipton auction were sky high…hard to bet against these days

so it's early but the 9 is getting pounded

no, it ain't me

Good luck OTE

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins