Saturday
Race 3 Against Cody’s Wish (not the boy nor his wishes, but the horse…slow pace and two turns are not his best setup) …beating him in most people single should payoff…however it has historically been pretty chalky...5-Charge It has been with some salty company…The 9-National Treasure will be in front along with the 4-Zozos…6-Skippylonstocking might go with them and should figure underneath
Race 4… Euros dominate here…favorites have lost 9 straight…decent pace with the 1-In Italia and 8-Fev Rover…the 3-In The Moonlight should get a nice trip behind them, and interesting to note that while she is 20-1 on the morning line, she is Brisnet’s top prime power...I think the 7- Lindy is sitting on an upset run, bred to love this extra distance…the 6-Inspiral will be tough to but though,
Race 5…Probably will be leaving heavy favorite 1-Goodnight Olive off my ticket…she won last year but returning winners are but 1 of 7, and she’s stuck on the rail at a short price…lots of pace in this one…JORR loves the 4, and wouldn’t argue with him, he can press the speed and pounce when they get tired (the horse, not JORR)...the 7-Society will get a good ride and could win with her A game
Race 6…6-Mawj is the class and probably lone speed here…thinking she is set to dominate here despite the strong field, could go wire to wire…favorite 14-Master of the Seas will have to work out a trip from that outside post...The 3-Casa Creed won a G1 and G2 at Saratoga, but this is a saltier group…the Japanese horses (4 and 10) are a complete wild card…the 11-Kelina is out of Frankel and will love this trip…really bummed Exalted scratched
Race 7 Distaff Pace…Quite Slow ? 8-Randomize may be lone speed and has been able to walk the pace in these routes before…last time at this distance she eased them to a :47 and 1:12 split…she does that again, and with this group it looks likely, she might run away with it…the 7-Wet Paint is tough as nails...finished in the money 6 of last 7, five of which were Graded Stakes…lack of pace and jock don’t bode well for the 9-Clariere, a classy broad (that’s for Walt) that’s earned over 3 million…3-Pretty Mischievous has been solid her whole career winning 7 out of 10 lifetime, 3 of them Grade 1’s, but is facing elders here…the 4-Idiomatic will be tough to leave off tickets, Brad Cox is red-hot, this horse won a G3 then a G2 at Delmar, then a G1 at Saratoga, then a G1 at Kee…has to be the favorite…the 5-Adare Manor comes in with a 5 race winning streak, four straight +100 Brisnet numbers, and if you don’t know her jock Juan Hernandez you will by the end of the weekend
So I have revisited the pace and afraid that it might be hotter than it looks…that would bode well for the 7-Wet Paint…
Early BC Pick 5
4, 5, 6 / 3, 6, 7, 8 / 4, 7 / 3, 6, 11, 12 (Scratched but still on program), 14 / 4, 5, 7, 8
|