Muth out. Now it could be a fun race.

My only hedge win from the Derby was Sieze the Grey. Hmm…

Now the other Baffert just wires the field. But you get 7/2 instead of 7/5. BONUS!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ivWW4Xh628

Jon Stettin is a good handicapper and I respect his opinion but something he says here is just objectively wrong. Handicapping is subjective but how to bet is objective. He says he "doesn't bet against the horse he likes." Well, "liking" a horse is the first problem. The race is a puzzle. Each horse has a chance(s). It's the handicapper's job to assess those chances. The most likely winner isn't always the right bet. This is Gambling 101. Yet Jon will turn around and say he made the "right bet" in the Derby with Sierra Leone at 9/2. That may have been the right bet based on his assessment but it flies in the face of his contention that "there is no value in a losing bet." I've heard old guys say, "You can beat a race but you can't beat the races." That's exactly backward. I would never guarantee I could beat a race, but a few of us can beat the races.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Mystik Dan will probably go to 4/5 or so and Imagination will be 2/1 or 9/5 or some shit. I hope Mugato hits the board, and Just Steel to have some odd “Zoolander” reference.

Simply too few runners in this race means that there will be less losing tickets, and consequently no value. Friday card maybe good

I think Gun Song is pretty strong in the Blackeyed Susan. I'm going to try to get live in the two-day double.

As for the Preakness, Imagination appears to be lone speed now that his stablemate is out. I expect him to be in the 5/2-7/2 range which I consider a fair overlay.

Here's my personal line for the race:

1 ) Mugatu 200/1
2 ) Uncle Heavy 50/1
3 ) Catching Freedom 5/1
4 ) Muth SCRATCHED
5 ) Mystik Dan 5/1
6 ) Seize the Grey 33/1
7 ) Just Steel 30/1
8 ) Tuscan Gold 6/1
9 ) Imagination 6/5

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

This Pletcher 2-Value Area is just that at 24-1 on the Friday Preakness card

"My Cherie Amor" indeed...trainer Cherie DeVaux getting it done today...alive to the 5,7 and 8 in the Pick 5

that works, see ya tomorrow

Liked Just Steel in the Derby ran a clunker so I am coming right back with him here picks up Rosario ...also like Uncle Heavy (Rube) picks up Irad good luck

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Alive to the 3,6,7/1,6/6,10,12 in the Race 5 Pick 5

and starting a new P5 here in Race 7
3,6,7/1,6/2,6,10,12/5,6,10/1,11,12

Rain stayed away

Have nothit in any Pick 5's but alive in the final to the 3,4,5 and the 3,5,8 and 9 in the Preakness...but I fucked up and left the 9-Beatbox off my ticket in the 12th, and will probably pay for it

Don't make that mistake

whew

alive to the 3,5,8 and 9 in the final Pick5

Fucked me but happy for you, W_Z!

Tough game.

I didn't like the way any of them raced. I thought Mystik Dan was probably the best. Seize the Grey grabbed the lead and that was that. Tuscan Gold didn't handle at all.

I still think Resilience may be the best of this group. I hope Mott doesn't get convinced he's a miler.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The one time I really believe in the Baffert horse, he screws me.

Yeah, I lost but Baffert suffered greater embarrassment with Imagination.