November 10

First play of the year
Houston-Georgia Southern UNDER 153. 1*
I make the number 140. Fast pace but should be pretty inefficient with both teams having new point guards.


Recommendations
If you want action on the Presby-Duke game, I'd recommend taking Presby +20.5 first half. Presby has an experienced backcourt and they will slow it down big time. Much better value and game dynamics for a first half bet.

Nice solid 25 point winner on the total. Right Angle, a well-respected service with a LOT of clients, gave out the over and pushed the line to 157. 65-63 final. Gotta love those 25 point nailbiters (actually it damn near went to OT).

Thanks Coast!

So that is who Mike North took last night?

_________________

Wednesday, Nov. 12
Season record: 1-0

Miami Ohio - Weber State UNDER 57.5, 1st half 1*
Two teams that play grinder styles. Both finished in the bottom tier for pace/tempo last year. Weber has a somewhat inexperienced backcourt. Playing first game on a neutral floor often begets slow starts, especially with two teams that won't run much anyway. Maybe instead of the crowd doing the wave, they can start an infectious yawn.

Stay tuned. I may have others later today.

How in the hell do these teams both shoot over 50% from the field and 10/16 from trey. And with that hot shooting, I lose by 9. Pace was fine. Shooting was unconscious. Unlucky. Next.

Friday, Nov. 14
Season: 1-1, -0.1

Bradley -5 vs. UIC
I may think I know these teams pretty well, but I will admit I was wrong about UIC more than a few times last season. This is the largest single line gap between my power ratings and the openers. I make this line 11. This meets my 5 point gap test, so barring anything unforeseen, such gaps are a play. Why the gap? I think Joe Public is reading the stories about Bradley losing to Wisconsin-Platteville last week and think somehow this Braves team is down. I love that kind of thinking. People over-react to one exhibition game and think that's a good read on how a team is going to play. Les was experimenting with multiple combinations in that game and was giving all of the kids extended minutes in a variety of combinations. I think it's meaningless to read too much into that. Joe Public also knows Warren is still coming back from a broken hand and probably discounts his performance. I love the way Joe thinks. It drives down the line and gives me even more value than the 5.5 opener. Les says this is his most talented team ever at Bradley and he knows his teams better than I do. He's saying this team is more talented than the team he took to the Final 8. He's saying it's more talented than last year's team. Even with Ruffin gone (who had a lot of positives, but a lot of negatives also), this team has veteran guards, a big guy in the middle to match up with the Flames' big guy and enough quickness in the backcourt to at least get a hand in Mayo's face. Mayo will get his points. But will the Flames' other guys produce? That's the question. The Flames were not a great play on the road last year, particularly early, and better Flames teams than this one have been whacked in Peoria. I think it happens again.

Hofstra-Clemson OVER 142, 1*
Both of these teams are uptempo and both bring back a lot of guys, particularly their guards. Hofstra returns everybody (4 of 5 starters, 9 of top ten) except their go-to guy the last few years Aguido. However, this might actually be a plus for Hofstra as they have talented guys who seemed at times last year to not be as aggressive as they could have been shooting the rock out of deference to Aguido.

Clemson lost three key guys (Mays, Hammonds and Perry), but Coach Purnell admitted several times during the offseason this year's team is better offensively than his other squads at Clemson, but probably not as good on defense. Those three guys were the keys to Clemson's full court pressure D they like to play. Purnell admits losing them will hurt Clemson more on the defensive side than offensively. That's especially true when you consider those three guys were the main reasons for Clemson's horriffic free throw shooting last year (those three combined for 55% FT).

Clemson likes press all over the court, which speeds up the game, and play fast. Hofstra should have no problems with that style. They play fast on the offensive end too and love to score in transition.

Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 3-1, +1.9 (Totals: 2-1;Sides: 1-0)

One side so far. May have a total or two once the numbers are posted.

575 Tennessee Chattanooga +18 @ Tennessee
The number is fair for my power ratings, but the matchup and situation cause me to think this game will be played closer than the power ratings suggest. Chattanooga has a veteran team with five returning seniors, three of their core starters and a history of playing tough with the Vols (lost by six to the vols last year and out rebounded the vols by 15). Tennessee has two returning starters, a brand new backcourt (the point guard is a jc transfer) and two freshmen starting.

Coast, thank you, not just for the picks, but when you gave them to us. The Clemson total was 142 when you posted. I checked later, and it was 145.5. I checked again, and it rose to 147. I always feel good with a ticket five points better than the closing number. Great start, my friend.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Damn, now my sides are being moved fast. Now they have moved the Chattanooga side by 1.5 points right out of the box. The books are really running scared about how soft their lines are this first week of college hoops season. And my accounts are flagged. Yesterday, when I bet the Clemson total at three places, they all moved it 1 point. Then when my partners bet it, they moved it 4 points. I understand that most of you guys don't bet hoops. But I'm putting them here first and for the cost of juice, there are going to be some good middle opportunities, particularly on totals, this season.

Chus, I plan to post my totals plays here by 3 pm latest most week days. And often, it will be earlier than that. But I don't release them to my partners until 4:15. Keep that in mind. 4:15-4:45 is when they will hit them and that's when you'll see the line moves. By 5:30, the lines will have settled and by 6:30 they will typically reach their peak if you're looking for a middle.

Providence-Northesastern OVER 133, 1*
Keno Davis brings his uptempo style to a Providence team that played uptempo last year and has all five returning starters. northeastern has already played two games so it's not like their offense would be expected to have first game jitters. Prov scored over 100 in their ex. game, and while that was against cupcake Slippery Rock, the running pressing style was evident.

a little 20% diddle in the middle. went as high as 137 and landed 136.

Yesterday: 1-1
Season: 4-2, +1.8 (Totals 3-1, Sides 1-1)


717/718 Ohio-William & Mary OVER 120, 1*
Bill and Mary was a grinding team last year but played faster against faster opponents, and also did the other night vs. Penn State. Ohio's new coach is emphasizing his team will run, press, play fast and score in transition. This is a low number when we have one team working to speed up the game.


Short on time today. WIll release this to the market at 11:45

Yesterday: 1-0
Season: 5-2, +2.8 (Totals: 4-1; Sides: 1-1)

547/548 Marist/St. Bonaventure UNDER 142.5
Call this the "Bad Teams" under. Marist has a new coach, a lot of new faces, and its first game vs. Rutgers played a much more tempo style than they did last year with their previous coach. Bonnie played a bit faster than Marist in their opener, but they were playing Bob Morris and most teams play a bit faster when they are playing Bob. These are two young teams that were not very efficient in their first games. I would expect both teams to continue to be inefficient (aka suck offensively) early in the season.

549/550 UT Chattanooga-Missouri OVER 156
Two very fast teams hook up here. I made a mistake the other night taking Chattanooga vs. Tenn, rather than betting the over in that game as I have in previous years. The Mocs showed in that game that they, like previous years, won't slow down any just because they are falling way behind. Missouri showed in their first game on Saturday that they will play every bit as fast, if not faster, than last year. I'm not concerned about how fast this game will be. Winning will likely hinge on shooting percentage, but after giving up 114 to Tennessee, the Mocs don't appear to be focusing on their D quite yet.

There are four guys in the world that have backers or followings of customers that consistently move lines on totals. (It was funny when some large bettors took the four of us out one night in Vegas and somebody said "There's about $10 million in winnings in this room this past season from you four guys". That was funny. I told them I needed a raise. Anyway, When you see a total move in the market, very good chance it was one of the four of us (Edward from Right Angle, Helmut, Greg or me) or a large bettor himself. The golf course owner guy usually (BW) who regularly hits totals for 10k each at several dozen off screen outs at once. Anyway, tonight, before I released my Bonnie-Marist under to the market, Edward gave out the over to his customers. And they responded in typical fashion by hitting it so hard the books pushed the number 4.5 points. So when I finally did give out my play to my guys, it was 146. No matter the resistance. cash those bad boys.

And cash them, we are.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thursday

Tuesday: 2-0
Season: 7-2, +4.8 (Totals: 6-1; Sides: 1-1)

723/724 North Florida/BYU Over 133.5, 1*
I expect the pace of this game to be over 70 possessions for each team and I expect BYU to have their way on the offensive end, perhaps putting up 90 points here (as 34 point favorites). Should be a blowout from the get-go, which tends to speed up games and often makes them playground affairs. The question is, can N. Florida put up 50? I think so when it becomes a wide open playground game

Thanks, Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

The BYU total is down to 131.5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

yep somebody else hit it before I did, but nobody of note (that I know of anyway). It's back at 133.5. Because it's north florida it didn't generate the kind of money some of my plays have. You can get out of it now at the same price for the cost of juice if you like.

I will have some for Saturday. I will post them as I play them. These will likely go into the market at about 10:30 am CT:

721/722 George Washington-Auburn OVER 134.5, 1*
779/780 Texas Tech-Eastern Kentucky UNDER 140.5, 1*

Somebody else is going to give out the tech-eku under. we're going to hit it with a double whammy from at least two originators. Hit it hard if you can and then middle it back after it drops. look for this thing to drop at 11:15 and be 5 points lower by 11:45.

There's your middle. Line is 134-134.5. For the cost of juice, you can set up a 20/1 middle.

For those who don't understand what I'm talking about, take this example:

bought $110 to win $100 on under 140.5
bought $110 to win $100 on over 134 an hour later

If the number lands on anything outside 134-140.5, you lose $10 in juice
If the number lands on 134, you win $100
If the number lands on 135-140, you win $200

Risking 10 to win $200.

Just trying to be helpful. There will be other opportunities like this during the season when I know that two of us are hitting the same number. 6 point move is very likely in these cases. that's a pretty good middle for a 20/1 payoff.

for those so inclined...

ok, that TT play lost but if you middled as I suggested, you're only out juice on that one with a winner on the other.

Here are two for tonight. One of these is going to move a lot also as the same guy is giving out one of these. Not sure which it is, but it will be obvious which one after it moves 5 points after 4 pm CT. So one of these at least is going to have a 5 or 6 point move in the next 45 minutes...

743/744 Evansville-Buffalo over 128.5
745/746 Arkansas-Missouri State under 142

Thanks, Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Ok...there we go...7 pt. middle on buffalo and 5 on ark...
buffalo under 136
Arkansas over 136


I have a net position on the first plays I gave, but much larger middles.

One more for tonight.


777/778 BYU-Cal Poly OVER 130

3-2 yesterday


first 2** pick of the year. this one will move for sure.

duquene-furman OVER 142.


1* on
missouri-so cal under 147
marshall-miss over 145

Thanks, Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

513/514 Wilmington/Kent UNDER 167

got Furman o142, its now at 148

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

40 minutes to game time. I like the play a lot, but middle some back if you like. there are a few 149s out there. pinny hit 150 briefly, but somebody middled it back