From ESPN's FA tracker
Quote:
Williams back to Chicago on a 5-year deal
Deal:
Agreed to re-sign forward Patrick Williams to a reported five-year, $90 million contract
Grade: D
This contract for Williams seems like the latest case of the Chicago front office overvaluing the talent on the team's own roster, which has produced below-.500 results each of the past two seasons.
The Bulls were actually better in 2023-24 after Williams was lost to a midfoot injury that required season-ending surgery. Williams' 43 starts produced a 36-win pace, and while the contrast was largely about having Alex Caruso as a replacement, it still speaks poorly of Williams' ability to help a team win at this stage in his career.
Certainly, there's a scenario where having Williams under contract from ages 23 through 27 at a yearly salary below what the average starter will command as the NBA cap increases could prove a win for Chicago. If Williams realizes the potential that made him the No. 4 pick of the 2020 draft, he could regret locking in for the maximum five years instead of getting back into free agency beforehand.
Four years into Williams' career, however, we're still waiting to see that kind of development. Williams is largely the same player he was as a teenager starting for the Bulls as a rookie. Williams has been a high-percentage 3-point shooter (40% last season, 41% career), but on such limited volume (last year's 4.5 attempts per 36 minutes were a career high) that teams don't feel compelled to guard him like a threat.
Williams' accuracy inside the arc, meanwhile, has gone the wrong direction with modestly more responsibility on offense. Last season's 47% was a career low, and it meant Williams scored with below-average efficiency (.553 true shooting, compared with the league average of .580) in a smaller-than-average role (17% usage).
If Williams were a lockdown defender, that kind of offensive production might be acceptable for a starter. Though he's certainly versatile, showing the ability to defend all three wing spots at 6-foot-7, Williams hasn't made a consistently positive impact on defense. In fact, adjusted plus-minus data shows Williams as a below-average defender after factoring in teammates, opponents and shooting luck.
The biggest problem is that Chicago's other overpays -- most notably to re-sign Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic -- give the team little margin for error when it comes to contracts. With 13 players under contract, including second-year wing Onuralp Bitim with a non-guaranteed salary, the Bulls now stand about $22 million below the projected luxury tax line before re-signing unrestricted free agent DeMar DeRozan.
Paying the luxury tax as a likely play-in team is an untenable situation for Chicago, and while some relief is coming when the contract of injured guard Lonzo Ball ends after this season, the Bulls' ability to improve their roster outside of internal development is compromised by their lack of financial flexibility. Williams must take a considerable step forward in his development to ensure we aren't saying the same thing about his contract in a few seasons.