Why are sacks a QB stat? Several studies have shown quarterbacks mostly control their own sack rates. One of the most famous, from the Big Lead, found sack rate was “one of the most consistent things when a quarterback changes teams. It is one of the least consistent things when a team changes quarterbacks.

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man of the people here

That statement assumes a competent offensive coordinator which the Bears didn't have this past season.

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I agree. The historic number of sacks taken is the result of a confluence of factors not just the QB. But QBs are generally the main culprits for sacks taken. Studies have shown this. Former QBs and other players say it. The numbers indicate it.

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Your "proof" is a guy at The Big Lead jerking off on a spreadsheet subtracting seasonal numbers from statistical averages? No wonder you don't know what an outlier actually is.

Every study done on it shows it's the QB's fault. The numbers being sticky to the QB show it. Tom Brady says it. And you can just simply watch football and see many sacks taken a game when a QB has an opportunity to get rid of the ball and doesn't.

And if your point was correct there would be data to back it up, but there's not. Because as with every football discussion you don't know what you're talking about.

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The funny thing here is that JLN insists that he admits Caleb struggled, but somehow he wont even acknowledge the most blatantly obvious area in which he struggled.

Even just a minute's worth of analysis can undo the "numbers being sticky to the QB" narrative you've convinced yourself of and are too stupid to think your way out of, to wit: Bad teams tend to have bad lines which give up sacks, bad teams also tend to change quarterbacks more often than good ones, but this cuts both ways: The QB leaving a bad team which gave up a ton of sacks is likely to find himself on another bad team which will also likely have a bad line giving up sacks. The inverse is true of good QBs, who tend to go to good teams and stay there. It's called analysis, and sometimes it is more valuable than just jerking off with numbers like, I don't know, taking historical averages and subtracting the worst real performance and pretending you've proven something.

Now go find out what an outlier is before you try to talk to me again about statistical analysis, fucking retard.

I only accept PFF studies

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Just read the quote. Either he was lying, which it seems strange to trust someone who is lying about the thing he is saying, or it was the standard cliche about how a QB has to be the first person in the parking lot and the last person to leave if they want to succeed.

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It's funny how you start getting emotional every time you're proven wrong. Studies have controlled for the factors you mentioned. Pressure to sack rate remains more sticky than most stats even when controlling for team quality and OL quality. Guys who do well avoiding sacks in college tend to avoid them well in the NFL regardless of the quality of their OL. Same is true of QBs changing teams. Same is true of long tenured QBs who see fluctuations of OL quality in their careers. Just like with the Baker outlier thing, you're unequivocally wrong here, just like you almost always are when it comes to any football discussion.

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So you think Williams ends up around 68 sacks taken again next year?

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So if he ends up with a mere 67 next season you will view it as an "improvement". He's Brick McCarver

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No, those are historic numbers. I think he will almost certainly be top 10 in sacks taken and most likely top 5 again.

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he absolutely will be because there's no way for this team to find four good OL men in the offseason.

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The OL isn't the problem. If it was we would see guys take 60 sacks routinely. Lot of bad OLs in the league. I do think the protection schemes were a big factor. Good chance a new coach fixes or at least improves that. I think Caleb will improve also. But it's likely to remain a weakness of his.

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Caleb Williams is to blame for the sacks he's taken but he also will somehow lower those significantly next year. Fine by me.

A lot of really good QBs in the top 5 to top 10 in sacks taken list.

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25 percent of them were on him, I'd say. Watched every one of the all-22's. Shelton was routinely in his lap, RG was terrible all season (Davis and everyone else there) even Wright would wiff a ton. It's literally one of the worst lines I've seen in my life, and maybe that's coaching but I'm inclined to blame the GM who thought undersized try hard guys would work. Jenkins is the only man on that line and he's reliably hurt.

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Did you just not read my earlier post you quoted where I agreed with Seacrest on the OC being a contributing factor and specifically said it was a confluence of factors and not solely on Caleb?

There's a lot of QBs who take too many sacks. There's OC's and OL coaches who have bad protection schemes. There's OL's who simply aren't a good unit. All are to blame, as is usually the case when talking about a historic number. But if we are saying who's the most responsible the answer is the quarterback.

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I'm not really arguing anything any more. It's not worth it. Sacks were a problem this year. They'll be a lot less of a problem next year. All good.

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"Sacks happen irrespective of oline play!" That you've learned to regurgitate this nonsense from other dweebs just shows how ruinous the analytics movement has been to sports consumption. Jesus Christ.



For all your bluster about how much you know about stats and analytics, or at least how much you've learned to puke back out like you understand any of it, you have no idea what an actual outlier is. Well at least you think you're special.

I don't think that's true here. But we won't know till next year.

The next HC and OC needs to take pains to fix Caleb's constant changing of the plays at the line. He's not Peyton Manning. Get some offensive flow going.

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You seem to lack reading comprehension. Neither of your responses make any sense as a response to the parts that are quoted. Can't say I'm surprised.

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Since QBs have no control over the sacks they take, this is a hell of a coincidence!

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You literally said that guys will avoid sacks at the NFL level at the same level they did in college (i.e., "well") "regardless of the quality of their OL". Explain how that doesn't mean that you think that a QB sacked at some rate in college won't be likewise sacked at a similar rate in the NFL irrespective of the play of his oline.

Ah, what a cute strawman you have there. While I take a victory lap that you've resorted to this nonsense, go back and quote me where I said that QBs "have no control over the sacks they take". Don't break too much of a sweat doing it.

The question is not whether Tom Brady is better than other QB's. The best part of most of those Patriot teams was the OL, Tom had forever back there. Of course Cassel is going to have worse sack numbers, he was a terrible QB, objectively. A career backup.

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Sounds like you’re saying Caleb’s a terrible QB since he gets sacked so much then.

He gets sacked all the time because he thinks he is Vick and can double back and escape from anything. Another thing that no one seems to bring up is that the WR YAC has to be 2x Caleb's air yards. That is on the field stuff though.... A fun thing to search on him is pre draft red flags. He scared the shit out of scouts and GM's and one even said he is so weird and arrogant that its as Prince were a qb. His ego and personality was likened to only the version of Russell Wilson that was run out of Seattle. Pete helped grow that monster so it would be perfect if he got the job and immediately got Caleb an office and personal staff to cater to him at the facility.

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Holy shit, that’s what you’re basing this on?

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