so would you say he's borderline great with the potential to be great?

Hailing meatballs in Lakemoor!

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Hey My ears are as white as anyone. Im 54% Certain that Ghost calls him Biggie before he goes...(some lyric sites say do it to em baby but ive seen do it to em biggie as well) I know I read it somewhere. I mean if its on the internet or wikipedia its factual right? Right???!!!!

Man if Im wrong about this a lot of people are full of shit. I ve mentioned that to a handful of people who fashion themselves Nas fans and they said nothing or acted like they knew. Only 1 guy was Balck.

I had someone over a few weeks ago who thought that "Fortunate Son" was a Doors song.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

My girl thought My Generation was the Beatles.

The Beatles have potential to be HOF. I need to see more from them.

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I think they were just in the right place at the right time.

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The beatles dissappeared after 1963

The Beatles absorbed too many hits because of their upright running style. Besides, look at their stats. If you take away all of their #1 songs, what does that make the rest of their songs? (This is how I interpret the AP argument "If you take away that one long run, his average just wasn't that good" )

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The Beatles original name was Biggie.

AHHH Ya gotta have some fun

His average wasn't that good with the long run. And he doesn't have the long run if Kevin Payne doesn't barrel in like an idiot and knock three Bears defenders off of him who had him wrapped up. It's not just a matter of him breaking one; the one that he did break wasn't because he's so awesome. It's because Kevin Payne is a moron and actively interfered with the tackle.

Besides, variance in carries is an important factor. You'd rather have a guy that always, without fail, picks up 4 yards a carry than someone who gets nothing for 19 carries then rips off an 80 yarder (extreme scenario). The steady guy extends drives; the uneven guy you can't count on, just because he'll go through cold streaks (like the end of last season.) If he's Barry Sanders and he's just averaging so much more than everyone else, you'll take that. But he's averaging practically nothing for the month of december because he just hasn't broken that big one yet, you have a problem.

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Fire Phil Emery

And IF a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his ass when he hopped.

Good to see you are taking the Wandstedt defense; "Well ya know if you take away those 3 big touchdown passes, our defense played really good."

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But He DID break that run. It happened. If Payne tackles him maybe they run something different and he does it on the next play. (SEE: Mr. Destiny) The premise of your argument is flawed. But the carry variance thing is a good and rarely discused point

Therefore, you think Barry Sanders was a terrible running back. You must - otherwise your statement here is false.

A RB that gets a guaranteed 4 yards every play doesn't exist - never has. So let's get back to talking about actual existing human beings. AP is actually a great RB today.

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Jeez, I didn't even see that. "Without fail gets 4YPC?"

Wow. I'd also like a few pitchers on the Sox that "without fail" win 25 games a year, hitters that "without fail" hit 40 Homers and drive in 120, and an RB on the Bears who will, again "without fail" get at least 3.4 YPC. Because if he does that, 3.4 yards per carry 100% of the time (without fail), every 3 plays is a first down and the Bears would never punt, and thus win almost every game they played.

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Ok he wrote 4yds a carry but you guys know what he meant

Its the Curtis Martin type v Barry Sanders type argument

Also, I'm sure Kevin Payne is not the first safety to fly into a pile, knock a few guys around, and then the ball carrier breaks free for a big gain. Nor will he be the last.

Its the NFL. 22 guys running around at top speed, it happens. How often do you see a kick returner run into one of his own blockers. Probably once every other game.

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kevin payne wasnt the problem on that play. the problem is you have 3 bears tacklers groping like blind mice instead of wrapping their arms around the guy and tackling him. payne does what DB's do on plays like that: they do run support, run up to the pile, and try to knock it backwards. peterson proved he is better than the average back on that play by constantly moving his feet and working his ass off to NOT get knocked down by poor tackling, and then breaking free.

almost ANY long run in the NFL can be attributed in some regards to poor defense. some running backs are able to exploit terrible tackling and turn 5 yard gains into 50 yard gains, or 0 yard gains into 5 yard gains.

AP had a more impressive run than that one in this game. I don't remember what quarter, but the Queens are at their own 10 yd line-ish, and he literally carried 3-4+ Bears for a ten yard gain, after being initially hit for no gain. That was his most impressive run to me.

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agreed, that run was crazy, and for a second, i thought he was going to break out of that one completely. they guy is an animal. one thing i will agree with is that backs like him, guys who work SO hard on plays that look like they will be bottled up and make 5 extra yards, those guys can burn fast and bright and then the injury bug can hit and thats it. right now the guy is great, who knows, he might have a short career, or a long career, but as of right now, the guy is a great back.

No shit Sherlock. That's why I said it was an extreme scenario. I could la out a more realistic scenario, but then we're going to have to get into more complicated mathematics to arrive at the same argumetnt. So I gave the most simplified example mathematically possible.

Anyway, consistency is necessary in the running game. Running plays never gain as much per play as passing plays, for any team, not even good running teams. The main advantage is consistency; you can count on a certain number of yards per play, on average. If you don't have that consistency, you have to make up for it by having those long runs frequently.



Er, except for the part where I said this:



Barry Sanders also averaged more yards per carry than pretty much everyone else at the time. He had more long TD runs than anyone else. Yes, he was boom or bust, but he boomed more often and thereby raised his value. It's not a Barry Sanders v. Curtis Martin argument, because they're not the same averages. It's more like Willy Parker vs. Curtis Martin (and no, I haven't looked up the YPA for any of the four.)



True, but that's not what I said. It wasn't "the only reason AP broke the carry was because the defense was bad." That's probably always true to some degree; if a defense plays something perfectly, the play won't work. What I said was that three Bears defenders had him wrapped up; he wasn't going anywhere. Period. In the process of bringing him down/attempting to strip the ball, Kevin Payne flew into their backs and knocked them off of him. If Kevin Payne doesn't exist (if only), or if the Bears have 10 players on the field for whatever reason, that play is a 10 yard gain.

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Fire Phil Emery

So, let me get this straight. AP wasn't going anywhere on that run. "period." Yet, 2 posts above yours mofo and rpb talk about a play in which AP literally carried 3 or 4 Bear defenders for about 5 extra yards. Who's to say he wasn't going to do that again, or somehow break free and make a big run anyway?

Bottom line is, AP is a great back and anybody that believes otherwise at this point is about as sharp as a beachball.

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One of the more interesting statistics out there for RBs is success rate. You can define success rate to be any percentage, but the basic idea is that you need a play to gain a certain amount for it to be a success. In other words, gaining 9 yards on third and 10 isn't a success, although it looks good on the stats. After all, there's all kinds of reasons why those nine yards may have been easier to get (the defense was playing pass, etc.) We've all seen third-and-forever plays where teams run a little draw play that gains 12 or 15 yards but doesn't come close to getting the first down. Those yards count just the same for average, but the play wouldn't be considered a "success".

Let's stipulate, just for a second, that you need the following for a play to be a success:

1st down: 40% of the yards needed to get another first down (a little bit more than a third- if you have three successful plays, you get the first down). A 4 yard play on 1st and 10 is a success
2nd down: 60% of the remaining yards needed, or a little but more than half. If we have second and 10, the play isn't successful unless you get 6 yards.
3rd or 4th down: you need a first down to be successful.

Adrian Peterson's success rate, if defined like that, is 46%, which is 20th in the league. Now, success rate is determined by many things. A bad offensive line will hurt the success rate. If you're a boom or bust guy, that's going to hurt, because a long run is still just one "success"; you don't get extra credit for succeeding really well. But, all things considered, you want a guy with a high success rate- a guy you can count on to get those yards you need. AP isn't that guy. He makes up for it in other areas- he's not just the 20th best RB in the league overall. But he has a low success rate.

Like I said, success rate isn't the end-all or be-all of running back statistics. But it does convey that idea of consistency I was talking about. By that metric, behind a very good O-line, Adrian Peterson is about league-average in terms of success percentage.

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Fire Phil Emery

In Frank's world 5 = 50. What does the fact that he gained a few yards after contact have to do with the fact that he wasn't going to gain another 50 on that play without a defender basically running interference for him?

Another factor: Peterson is one of the worst pass-catching RBs in the league. He's caught 55% of the passes thrown to him, which is worst in the league among RBs that have been target on 20 passes. (It's not just the QB: Chester Taylor has caught 80%. That detracts from his value overall. But Frank's not one to let facts get in the way; after all, his well trained eye is all he needs!

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Fire Phil Emery

I was foolishly playing the "what if" card just as you did.

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all this is well and good, but to me, the guy is one of the top 2 or 3 running backs in the league right now, and i think he is a "great" running back. he has speed, he has power, and he forces defenses to do certain things to stop him, which help in other ways. if he were on my team, i would be able to live with him not being a prolific pass-catcher or any of the other arguments that have been made against him. he runs, he produces, and scores TD's.

i dont see the comparison at all between he and barry sanders - 2 different animals altogether in my opinion. i think barry was the best runner i have ever watched, but he had his advantages as well. detroit was running that crazy run and shoot offense for several years, and he wasnt running against too many 8-in-the-box sets back then, he had some pretty good running lanes. AP is running against 8-in-the-box pretty often. i think AP is a more physical back than sanders, and sanders was more elusive.

Another empty stat - C.Taylor is the 3rd down/pass package back - his situations are already more likely to produce a pass to him. Meaning the play is designed with him as a receiver. I would guess that most teams with this type of back on their team, the 3rd down RB is more succesful at this.

IB - maybe you've already done this, but please list any RB's you would rather have on your team (right now - this week) than AP. Is he not top 2-3 in your world?

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i'll be even minnesota's offensive linemen didnt even realize how good they were until they read this thread.

This thread is great.

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