C_Howitt_Fealz wrote:
1) Angelo. Year after year of bad drafting.
Angelo. Year after year of bad drafting? Not fair. What are the NFL Draft success rates per round on average? I'd guess they look something like this:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 50%
3rd round: 35%
4th round: 25%
5th round: 17%
6th round: 10%
7th round: 5%
Undrafted: 2%
If those are accurate, and I think they are pretty close, then if you take 7 draft picks as a whole, the average GM would have about a 30% overall success rate per draft. Reduce that figure to about 20-25% due to the fact that the average GM has multiple supplemental picks which tend to weight their overall draft to the later rounds (for instance, the Bears had five 7th round picks last year. With a 5% success rate, the odds were against them that any of them would make it in the NFL. On the whole, that means that the average NFL team should pull about 3 long term players per Draft (with supplemental picks, the average team has more than just 7 picks). The best teams would pull 4 consistently. An outstanding Draft would pull 5 players, which is still 50% or so failing. Bad Drafts would have 1-2 picks per Draft contribute.
Some like to judge by impact players, for example, saying over the past 5 years, the Bears have 4 "impact" players...Let's review the New England Patriots during the same time frame:
2008 - New England Patriots
Rd Sel #PlayerPositionSchool
1 10 Jerod Mayo OLB Tennessee
2 62 Terrence Wheatley CB Colorado
3 78 Shawn Crable OLB Michigan
3 94 Kevin O'Connell QB San Diego State
4 129 Jonathan Wilhite CB Auburn
5 153 Matt Slater WR UCLA
6 197 Bo Ruud LB Nebraska
In the 2008 Draft, they had 0 impact players. Mayo was a starter, but he had
0 sacks, 1 FF, and 0 INT's, which probably doesn't qualify him as an impact
guy, or you need to count Kevin Payne for the Bears. Other than Mayo, their
entire draft is garbage so far.
2007 - New England Patriots
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 24 Brandon Meriweather DB Miami (Fla.)
4 127 Kareem Brown DT Miami (Fla.)
5 171 Clint Oldenburg T Colorado State
6 180 Justin Rogers LB Southern Methodist
6 202 Mike Richardson DB Notre Dame
6 208 Justise Hairston RB Central Connecticut State
6 209 Corey Hilliard OT Oklahoma State
7 211 Oscar Lua LB USC
7 247 Mike Elgin G Iowa
In 2007, Meriweather is an impact guy. He's a playmaker and a quality starter.
The rest of this draft is garbage.
2006 - New England Patriots
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
2 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
3 86 David Thomas TE Texas
4 106 Garrett Mills RB Tulsa
4 118 Stephen Gostkowski K Memphis
5 136 Ryan O'Callaghan T California
6 191 Jeremy Mincey LB Florida
6 205 Dan Stevenson G Notre Dame
6 206 Le Kevin Smith DT Nebraska
7 229 Willie Andrews CB Baylor
In 2006, the Patriots only impact guy is a 4th round Kicker. Maroney is yet
to have a season with over 900 yards or 7 TD's and is constantly injured. Chad
Jackson is a bust and the rest of this draft is garbage.
2005 - New England Patriots
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 32 Logan Mankins G Fresno State
3 84 Ellis Hobbs CB Iowa State
3 100 Nick Kaczur T Toledo
4 133 James Sanders S AFFresno State
5 170 Ryan Claridge LB Nevada-Las Vegas
7 230 Matt Cassel QB USC
7 255 Andy Stokes TE William Penn
Basically the Patriots best Draft of the group. Mankins and Kaczur are both
starters, Hobbs is a quality player, and Matt Cassel has proved his worth. Overall
a good group. That being said, nearly 40% of this Draft is garbage with guys like
James Sanders, Ryan Claridge, and Andy Stokes.
2004 - New England Patriots
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 21 Vince Wilfork NT Miami (Fla.)
1 32 Benjamin Watson TE Georgia
2 63 Marquise Hill DE Louisiana State
3 95 Guss Scott S Florida
4 113 Dexter Reid S North Carolina
4 128 Cedric Cobbs RB Arkansas
5 164 P.K. Sam WR Florida State
7 233 Christian Morton CB Illinois
Last Draft to be reviewed. Wilfork and Watson are good. The rest is garbage in this
group. Let's review their overall bust rate and then the number of quality players during
this time.
Bust Rate: Of the 41 players drafted, 9 guys panned out, one of which is a kicker and
another is a backup QB. That equates to an overall Draft bust rate of 78%. In other words,
about 22%, or 1/4 of the Patriots total draft picks actually pan out. I think we would all agree that
the Patriots front office is pretty solid. Are they just horrible drafters? No. This is the nature of the
NFL Draft.
Impact Players: They have four impact guys, one of which is a backup QB.
For the Bears, here are the guys drafted in the same timeframe that have started for the Chicago Bears for meaningful minutes:
I won't count Craig Krenzel or Cedric Benson, because starter or not, they were junk.
From there, you have Nathan Vasher, Bernard Berrian, Tank Johnson, Tommie Harris, Chris Harris, Kyle Orton, Mark Anderson, Dusty Dvoracek, Devin Hester, Danieal Manning, Trumaine McBride, Corey Graham, Kevin Payne, Josh Beekman, Greg Olsen, and Matt Forte. And we all know that Chris Williams will be a starter next year and was probably the starter this year barring injury.
Compare that to the Patriots Draft over the same period. I think when people say that Angelo cannot Draft, they don't really have a good understanding how the NFL Draft works or a realistic perspective of what a good Draft looks like.
It would be great if someone did a study on this.