College Football Handicapping Angles

Some of you may recall that last year I documented my two favorite college handicapping angles – running dogs and 40-point scorers. I’m going to follow these angles again this year and give weekly updates on them. Since I’ve followed these angles the last several years, they have consistently been above 70% against the spread every season. I can personally vouch for these ATS stats – I tabulate them myself. Each week during the season, I'll document the ATS the previous week and identify teams that might logically fit these angles in the upcoming week. Each week, there are 10-15 games that fit each of these angles. So there is plenty of opportunity to find some winners.

Running Dogs
College football underdogs that outrushed their favored opponents were 154-45-4 (77%) against the spread in the 2005 season.


40 point Scorers
Teams that scored 40 or more points in a game were 165-44-5 (79%) ATS in 2005.

So you're breaking down going into a game who the better running team is on paper, and if it's an underdog, you've done great at 77% ?

Same thing with the 40 point scorers ? You're basically breaking down the matchup, determining if either team can break 40, and going with them ?

Just trying to understand your angles more

These are the ATS stats for teams that achieved these outcomes in games. So the trick is trying to figure out each week the teams that might fit these angles. I identify underdogs that have better offensive and defensive rushing stats such that they will be likely to win the rushing stats in the game. And I identify the teams that most likely might score 40 points. Each week, there may be a list of ten teams on each list. That would be a lot of games to play if I played them all. I don't play that many. I try to focus on what I think are the best possibilities in each angle, and bet those.

Love the Avatar

_________________
""I am now done at the Score."
Mike North, June 24, 2008

Coast, what percentage of these teams fell under the "live dog" category? Not that 77% ATS isn't strong as is, but was there any significant +/- difference on ML action? Just curious. No need to crunch the numbers if you haven't done so already.

Good question, Bucket. I should have set up the database and parsed the data for that. I have the data, just have to do some work. I'll get back to you. I think it's a great question. I don't mind crunching numbers at all. It's what I do in July and August every year.