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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:58 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Darkside wrote:
Predictions don't mean squat to me in this scenario.

So predictions mean squat to you but unprovable guesses as to team strength do?

That's not my point.
I'm not concerned with preseason predictions of team record. That has zero reflection on a single player's contributions.
Now, 25% or better of the way thru the season, I can postulate from the several Broncos games I've watched, and the bears games I've watched, that the Bears are significantly improved with Cutler. The Broncos do not rely on high quality performance from the Qb as much as the bears do, and i think that explains ortons success so far.
In my opinion, there's a few factors here.
Broncos > Bears
Cutler > Orton (in terms of value to his team).

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:59 am 
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Chris in St. Charles wrote:
I learned this at Wisco: Better players make teams better than worse players.

Have you ever thought of doing analysis for the networks? You would have Dan Dierdorf or John Madden frightened by your level of commentary.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:01 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Darkside wrote:
Predictions don't mean squat to me in this scenario.

So predictions mean squat to you but unprovable guesses as to team strength do?

That's not my point.
I'm not concerned with preseason predictions of team record. That has zero reflection on a single player's contributions.
Now, 25% or better of the way thru the season, I can postulate from the several Broncos games I've watched, and the bears games I've watched, that the Bears are significantly improved with Cutler. The Broncos do not rely on high quality performance from the Qb as much as the bears do, and i think that explains ortons success so far.
In my opinion, there's a few factors here.
Broncos > Bears
Cutler > Orton (in terms of value to his team).

Sounds like a case where you are saying that Cutler is more valuable than Orton. I won't argue with that.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:03 pm 
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Chris in St. Charles wrote:
I learned this at Wisco: Better players make teams better than worse players.


was that Meatball 101: led by professor Tim McCarver?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:04 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Cutler is better in many areas and Orton is better in a few.

:lol: :lol:
Like what, growing beards and boozing?


Taking care of the ball for one.

Also, at least this year, Yards per attempt.

Orton's has gone up over yard per attempt while Cutler is currently at a career low. Interesting.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:05 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
Chris in St. Charles wrote:
I learned this at Wisco: Better players make teams better than worse players.


was that Meatball 101: led by professor Tim McCarver?


Yes. And we actually had Chip Carey come in and argue the counter-point. Solid debates. Good times.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:06 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Taking care of the ball for one.


I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone called in to B&B with stats to show this isn't true.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:08 pm 
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Chris in St. Charles wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Taking care of the ball for one.


I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone called in to B&B with stats to show this isn't true.


If you looked it up, over the past 2 years, Orton's interception rate is 2% and Cutler's is 3%.

Cutler has 29 career fumbles to Orton's 21.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:13 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Chris in St. Charles wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Taking care of the ball for one.


I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone called in to B&B with stats to show this isn't true.


If you looked it up, over the past 2 years, Orton's interception rate is 2% and Cutler's is 3%.

That probably has to do with the fact that all of Orton's deep passes are usually 20 feet out-of-bounds.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:14 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Chris in St. Charles wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Taking care of the ball for one.


I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone called in to B&B with stats to show this isn't true.


If you looked it up, over the past 2 years, Orton's interception rate is 2% and Cutler's is 3%.

And the difference in their completion percentage? 56.5 to 62.6.
cutler 9 fumbles lost in 41 games
orton 10 in 37 games.

Is there really a big difference in ball control?

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:20 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
And the difference in their completion percentage? 56.5 to 62.6.
cutler 9 fumbles lost in 41 games
orton 10 in 37 games.

Is there really a big difference in ball control?


The question was asked so I answered. I think Cutler is a more talented thrower of the ball but I'm willing to accept that Orton is a better quarterback than I thought. Maybe he'll regress but he's picking up right where Cutler left off with Denver.

Cutler stats with Denver last year are the same or worse than Orton's this year. Y/Att, Y/Comp, rating, etc. I'd love to ignore it and Orton doesn't look as pretty doing it but it's there.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:21 pm 
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In the past 2 years, Kyle Orton has 25 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In 3 years, it's 28 and 15.
In the past 2 years, Jay Cutler has 33 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. In 3 years, it's 53 and 37.
Those are the only 3 years where both of them were playing at the same time.

Orton approaches 2 to 1 td/int ratio.
Cutler approaches a 1.5 to 1 td/int ratio.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:23 pm 
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Cutler threw 616 passes in 2008, Orton threw 465.
Cutler has thrown 129 passes in 2009, to Orton's 165...and Orton has one more game.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:25 pm 
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I'll say it and probably get ridiculed by you guys. The Broncos would not be as good with Cutler at QB right now, in my opinion. Cutler would refuse to play within the system and try to be a cowboy out there. He would turn the ball over more than Orton has. Josh McDaniels certainly looks like he knows what he's doing when coaching and building a team. Call him stupid if you want but there's a reason he didnt want Cutler running his show. Cutler would have lost one of the games by now on a turnover. Im guessing yesterdays game.

Similiarly, the Bears would be worse without Cutler this year. I dont think they win the Steelers game or the Seattle game. I do think they might have won the GB game, maybe not though. At best they'd be 2-2. Cutler is way more talented than Orton and can make the best of a bad situation.

Obviously this is my opinion and none of us have any idea of knowing what would have happened had the trade not gone through, but feel free to call me football retarded anyway since you will all percieve this as some kind of Cutler Sucks comment, although I specificially said he does not.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:26 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Cutler threw 616 passes in 2008, Orton threw 465.
Cutler has thrown 129 passes in 2009, to Orton's 165...and Orton has one more game.

Differences like that are exactly why td/int ratio is a good metric as long as you have a large enough sample size.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:27 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Cutler threw 616 passes in 2008, Orton threw 465.
Cutler has thrown 129 passes in 2009, to Orton's 165...and Orton has one more game.


And Orton has one INT, that basically everyone agrees means nothing at this point, so for all intents and purposes he hasnt thrown one that effected a game. Cutler has 5, right?

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:27 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Cutler threw 616 passes in 2008, Orton threw 465.
Cutler has thrown 129 passes in 2009, to Orton's 165...and Orton has one more game.


That's why I used %.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:27 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Obviously this is my opinion and none of us have any idea of knowing what would have happened had the trade not gone through, but feel free to call me football retarded anyway since you will all percieve this as some kind of Cutler Sucks comment, although I specificially said he does not.

Welcome to my world. :lol:

You are just a biased Packer fan!

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:29 pm 
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FF, why wouldn't Cutler play within the broncos restrictive system but he's willing to play within the bears restricted system. Remember, Ortons' y/att is higher than last years, and Cutlers y/att is lower.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:31 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Differences like that are exactly why td/int ratio is a good metric as long as you have a large enough sample size.

Of course it works for you in this argument because Orton threw the ball less. Cutler last year had 5 or 6 different running backs, and the only way to move the ball was to throw it.

So yeah, consequently if you are forced to throw the ball more, you are going to have more INTs.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:34 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
FF, why wouldn't Cutler play within the broncos restrictive system but he's willing to play within the bears restricted system. Remember, Ortons' y/att is higher than last years, and Cutlers y/att is lower.


Is he really playing within a restricted system though? I mean yeah, he's probably running the plays he's told to but he's also attempting many more high risk throws than Orton has. I'll grant that most of this is due to bad O-line play and some is due to bad route running by inexperienced receivers. Overall thats been his reputation since being in the league and it was after McDaniels first met with him he wanted to a new QB. His "system" QB. You might be right though, he may have bought into McDaniels the same way it looks like Marshall did. Truth is we wont ever know and right now both fan bases seem pretty happy with the trade

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:36 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Of course it works for you in this argument because Orton threw the ball less. Cutler last year had 5 or 6 different running backs, and the only way to move the ball was to throw it.

I don't know what this means. Every time you throw the ball you have the chance to throw an interception and a chance to throw a touchdown. This statistic measures your success in doing that. The amount of times you throw shouldn't matter. The amount of chances you are willing to take does. There are many QB's who throw it just as much as Cutler did and had 2 to 1 ratios last year.

Frank Coztansa wrote:
So yeah, consequently if you are forced to throw the ball more, you are going to have more INTs.

...and you are going to have more touchdowns. It's pretty simple.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:37 pm 
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Rick, they could not run the ball last year. It was have Cutler throw the pigskin, or punt. Teams knew the Broncos were going to throw, so they could defend it better than a team with a better running game.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:38 pm 
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I was just about to say this. Brees, Manning, McNabb, Rodgers. All had a ton of pass attempts last year and had 2-1 ratios. All with less INTS than Cutler.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:41 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Rick, they could not run the ball last year. It was have Cutler throw the pigskin, or punt. Teams knew the Broncos were going to throw, so they could defend it better than a team with a better running game.


Ok but they were 12th in the NFL in rushing. Tied for 2nd in the NFL in Yards per Attempt. Tied for 14th in Rushing TDs. But yeah... never let the facts get in the way of a good argument there Frank.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:41 pm 
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this thread will make more sense in week 10.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:44 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Cutler stats with Denver last year are the same or worse than Orton's this year. Y/Att, Y/Comp, rating, etc. I'd love to ignore it and Orton doesn't look as pretty doing it but it's there.



I know what you meant, but I felt compelled to be a ass and give some stats that show you're wrong because that's what I do.
Orton's 1st 5 games this year w/Broncos vs. Cutler's 1st 5 games last year w/Broncos

....... % / Comp / Att / Yrds / TD / INT / Y/Att / Y/Comp
Orton 63.03 / 104 / 165 / 1236 / 7 / 1 / 7.5 / 11.9 Bronco offense 19.8 ppg
Cutler 65.45 / 125 / 191 / 1502 / 10 / 4 / 7.9 / 12 Bronco offense 29.8 ppg


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:46 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Rick, they could not run the ball last year. It was have Cutler throw the pigskin, or punt. Teams knew the Broncos were going to throw, so they could defend it better than a team with a better running game.

Please go to this link.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=QB&conference=NFL&year=season_2008&timeframe=All&sort=2&old_category=QB
Those are the top attempts by qbs last year.

5 of the top 6 had a ratio of 2 to 1. The one who didn't was Jay Cutler.

It is clear that your excuse does not match with the results from last year.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:47 pm 
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So besides the team ppg they are pretty close.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:51 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
this thread will make more sense in week 10.

When the Broncos are 5-4?

You guys of all people should be leary of seating Orton at the right hand of the Father. Rex Grossman was the NFL MVP thru week 5 or 6 of the 2006 season.

Now, I doubt Orton will put up ratings of 10 or 0, but he will not make the pro bowl.

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Last edited by Frank Coztansa on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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