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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:42 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Nas wrote:
FF pro bowl voting is done after the 13th or 14th game. To say Cutler was slightly above average is simply stupid. To say Cutler is equal to Orton is Matt Millen dumb and makes you lose a little credibility.


I disagree. I think it's simply stupid to imply Cutler deserved to go to the Pro Bowl last year, and defending that position makes you lose a little credibility. Enough of this talk of "Pro Bowl" QB Jay Cutler. It's really only words, because his play has never warranted that title in his career so far.

Whats next? You are going to tell me that "Pro Bowl" QB Kerry Collins isn't a top flight QB?

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:47 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
How many of the 22 Qbs with higher ratings is Cutler outplaying?


Not many of them. But the fact Nas is "amazed" that Cutler is "doing miracle work" with this team certainly explains his affinity for Rex a little better

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:53 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
How many of the 22 Qbs with higher ratings is Cutler outplaying?


Nobody. But there's at least 9 that I could think of that probably wouldn't have this team playing any better than they currently are.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:05 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
How many of the 22 Qbs with higher ratings is Cutler outplaying?


Nobody. But there's at least 9 that I could think of that probably wouldn't have this team playing any better than they currently are.

Well. It is comforting to know that Alex Smith and Shaun Hill wouldn't be winning games for us that we haven't with Cutler.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 8:58 pm 
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lol i didnt even bring rodgers up. I dont blame them for not voting for him last year. At least hes a lock this year unless he has cutler-esque games the next 2 weeks

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:21 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
BD wrote:
6. When any QB is surrounded by talent, he appears MORE talented. In Tom Brady's 1st season with Randy Moss on the roster, his yardage totals increased by 36%, his TD's increased by 108%, his INT's dropped by 33%, his completion percentage hit a career high, and his passer rating went up 30 points. Brady posted career highs in yardage, TD's, completion percentage, yards per attempt, interceptions (low), times sacked (low), passer rating, and even in rushing TD's. If the Bears added Brandon Marshall and Cutler saw even half the boost that Brady got from the addition of Moss in terms of percentages, he'd be looking at a 4700 yard, 35 TD, 19 INT, with a 90.4 passer rating. In other words, I think that would help. Those are Pro Bowl and playoff numbers for a QB. Just a thought.

You basically just made a case that Cutler was overrated because of having Brandon Marshall even though your numbers projections don't really fit with the reality of last year when he actually had Brandon Marshall. This is probably the worst point you could have made. Think about how bad Jay Cutler would have been in Denver without him if he's worth that much production! Oh wait, maybe we do know.

I guess we can simply hope that the Bears are able to outbid teams like Dallas and Washington for the services of Brandon Marshall in order to make this trade successful.

For years, the problem was considered to be Rex or Kyle. Now, we get a guy who performs worse than either of them did for a full season and it's not his fault because he "made a pro bowl". Do you guys not see the logical inconsistency in this thinking? Brian Griese went to a pro bowl in Denver! Kerry Collins went to a pro bowl last year! He's done in Tennessee.

Let's be completely honest here. Cutler was somewhere between the 8th to 12th best QB in the league last year. Now, he looks like he's more in the 15th to 20th best in the league. It will be a struggle to get Jay Cutler to be mentioned with players like Eli Manning and Tony Romo. I guess we'll see. He certainly has the potential to do it.


To call Cutler a bottom half of the league QB because of 2/3 of one season with a WR corp in its infancy behind an OL that is getting him crushed two dozen times a game is pretty silly. I'll just pretend you didn't say that and we can move along.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 9:19 am 
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ooofah....this thing is still going on

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:28 am 
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BD wrote:
To call Cutler a bottom half of the league QB because of 2/3 of one season with a WR corp in its infancy behind an OL that is getting him crushed two dozen times a game is pretty silly. I'll just pretend you didn't say that and we can move along.

Where would you rank Cutler for his play this year? Top 10? Top 5?

According to the official offensive line stats on NFL.com Cutler has been hit 58 times and sacked 24 times which puts them at 12th in the league and 16th in the league. The Vikings, who everyone seems to believe have never allowed pressure on Brett Favre are at 53 hits and 22 sacks. This shows that Cutler is not getting hit an abnormal amount. I'll admit he doesn't look comfortable back there a lot but I think that's on him too. So it's not two dozen times a game. It's more right around the middle of the pack for the NFL. No doubt he would be helped if he was getting protection like Peyton Manning but he's not getting killed out there. If you want to see someone who is check out Matt Schaub or Aaron Rodgers.

If Jay doesn't trust his offensive line then he needs to get over that because Schaub and Rodgers would trade with him in a second.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:31 am 
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:59 am 
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Nas wrote:
Maybe he escapes some of the hits because of his athletic ability.

BD specifically mentioned that he is being hit a lot. I countered with the actual numbers of hits. That's all.

I think the major problem is that Cutler thinks he's always going to get hit and plays like he has pressure on him no matter what. The numbers don't really indicate that he's being hit that much. He doesn't have the luxury of a Brees or Manning who rarely deal with pressure but it could be MUCH worse for him. One of the reasons that Brees and Manning don't get much pressure on them is because teams are afraid that they'll get beat by a great throw so it's better to just hang back and limit the damage they can do.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:36 pm 
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nas brady is not better than brees anymore

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:59 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I think the major problem is that Cutler thinks he's always going to get hit and plays like he has pressure on him no matter what.


Definitely. But I think a lot of that is due to comfort level. New system, team, plays, players and thinking he has to make a big play every single down. I think even if he had the same players next year, as bad as they are and I hope it's not the same players, he'd be a little less anxious since he'd be more in tune with the receivers and the line and not make some of the dumb mistakes from forced throws. I think that's one of the reason Rodgers is able to overcome his garbage O-line...being on the team and having relationships with the players for a couple of years is a huge advantage. Plus, he's used to it. Cutler didn't have to deal with this last year. If he evers learns to deal with the pass rush, and that's a huge if, he'll be worth the price the Bears paid for him.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:05 pm 
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You'll get no argument from me.

The most likely success story for this is that in the off-season Cutler hits the reset button because he has had a rough last 12 months. Much of it was self-inflicted but not all of it. I think this becomes much easier if Lovie, Turner, and Angelo all are sent packing as it really would be a fresh start.

He could definitely become a great story in the future and Frank C. can actually respond to one of my posts with more than an emoticon! I know there are a few who won't believe it but I hope Cutler does it.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:13 pm 
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:12 pm 
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This is going to be a really funny thread to read in five years. Unfortunately bigfan will not have fixed the search, so I will have to commit it to memory and review my thoughts.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:34 pm 
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I have a bias. I like Cutler and I really want him to succeed. His interview on W&S today reinforced that.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:44 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
BD wrote:
To call Cutler a bottom half of the league QB because of 2/3 of one season with a WR corp in its infancy behind an OL that is getting him crushed two dozen times a game is pretty silly. I'll just pretend you didn't say that and we can move along.

Where would you rank Cutler for his play this year? Top 10? Top 5?

According to the official offensive line stats on NFL.com Cutler has been hit 58 times and sacked 24 times which puts them at 12th in the league and 16th in the league. The Vikings, who everyone seems to believe have never allowed pressure on Brett Favre are at 53 hits and 22 sacks. This shows that Cutler is not getting hit an abnormal amount. I'll admit he doesn't look comfortable back there a lot but I think that's on him too. So it's not two dozen times a game. It's more right around the middle of the pack for the NFL. No doubt he would be helped if he was getting protection like Peyton Manning but he's not getting killed out there. If you want to see someone who is check out Matt Schaub or Aaron Rodgers.

If Jay doesn't trust his offensive line then he needs to get over that because Schaub and Rodgers would trade with him in a second.


I would say Cutler is a top 10 QB that has not had the tools or the time to showcase that.

And the difference between Favre and Cutler is that Favre is getting hit after holding the ball for 4-5 seconds and Cutler is getting hit in 2-3 seconds. The result is that Cutler refuses to throw a ball more than 20 yards most of the time. When is the last time Cutler went deep that he wasn't picking himself off of the turf for his troubles?


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:03 pm 
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Farve's defense is also a lot better, so he is generally playing with a lead.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:09 pm 
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BD wrote:
I would say Cutler is a top 10 QB that has not had the tools or the time to showcase that.

So...he looks like he's not a top ten QB and looks more like the 15th to 20th best in the league. What made my thoughts silly then? I think Matt Ryan has a ton of talent too but he doesn't look like a top ten QB this year either.
BD wrote:
And the difference between Favre and Cutler is that Favre is getting hit after holding the ball for 4-5 seconds and Cutler is getting hit in 2-3 seconds. The result is that Cutler refuses to throw a ball more than 20 yards most of the time. When is the last time Cutler went deep that he wasn't picking himself off of the turf for his troubles?

You said he was getting hit all the time. He's getting hit near the middle of the league. You said that Cutler was getting crushed two dozen times a game. That's false. He's also at about the league average and there are many teams that are 20+ more hits so far.
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Farve's defense is also a lot better, so he is generally playing with a lead.

What does that mean? Are you telling me that the Bears and Vikings have similar "qb hits" stats because the defense is better? If anything, when a team is up they throw the ball less and therefore it's going to lead to less QB hits.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 9:05 pm 
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[quote="Boilermaker Rick"]

Since we're counting, Cutler currently ranks 12th in completion percentage, 13th in yards, 12th in TD's, and 7th in completions over 20 yards. The only statistics he's down in are INT's, in which he ranks #1 (in a bad way) and rating (primarily a function of his INT's) in which he's 23rd. Now, if you don't think his INT's are a function of his situation, then I think you're insane. In nearly every other statistical category, all of which are pretty much right on target with his time in Denver, Cutler is a fringe top 10 QB on a bad team.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:53 pm 
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BD wrote:
Since we're counting, Cutler currently ranks 12th in completion percentage, 13th in yards, 12th in TD's, and 7th in completions over 20 yards. The only statistics he's down in are INT's, in which he ranks #1 (in a bad way) and rating (primarily a function of his INT's) in which he's 23rd. Now, if you don't think his INT's are a function of his situation, then I think you're insane. In nearly every other statistical category, all of which are pretty much right on target with his time in Denver, Cutler is a fringe top 10 QB on a bad team.


I dont think you are putting enough emphasis on how much interceptions suck for a team. Jay Cutler would almost be a top 10 QB, IF he didnt lead the league in INTs. In other words, he's like the 17th-20th best in the league right now overall. Which is what Rick and I have been saying.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:06 pm 
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BD wrote:
Since we're counting, Cutler currently ranks 12th in completion percentage, 13th in yards, 12th in TD's, and 7th in completions over 20 yards. The only statistics he's down in are INT's, in which he ranks #1 (in a bad way) and rating (primarily a function of his INT's) in which he's 23rd.

So your point is that he is 12th, 13th, and last in three important categories and I can't say he's not a top 15 QB?
BD wrote:
Now, if you don't think his INT's are a function of his situation, then I think you're insane. In nearly every other statistical category, all of which are pretty much right on target with his time in Denver, Cutler is a fringe top 10 QB on a bad team.

I agree. If we ignore interceptions then Jay Cutler is great. On a per game basis he's basically have as good of a season as Matt Stafford! Is Matt Stafford a fringe top 10 QB too? :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:14 pm 
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The Stafford comparison is actually really interesting here.

Stafford: 9 games. 62.4 rating. 12 tds(15 if he had played 11 games), 18 ints(22 if he had played 11 games), 236 yards a game
Cutler: 11 games. 74.4 rating, 16 tds, 20 ints, 242 yards a game.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:23 pm 
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stafford's going to be great.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:59 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
The Stafford comparison is actually really interesting here.

Stafford: 9 games. 62.4 rating. 12 tds(15 if he had played 11 games), 18 ints(22 if he had played 11 games), 236 yards a game
Cutler: 11 games. 74.4 rating, 16 tds, 20 ints, 242 yards a game.



So, when you look at two QB's and you see one QB that has a passer rating 10 points below another, and who over the course of a season is projected to have, two less TDs, 4 more INT's, and who is on pace to throw for about 300 less yards, with a completion percentage about 7% lower, you see the same player?

For what its worth, I think Stafford played like sh!t to start the season, but now, I think he's playing very well. He's just a rookie and his numbers are tremendously different when playing teams ranked in the top 5 in the Power Rankings as opposed to the rest of the league:

Against top 5 teams:

Actual: 794 yards, 4 TD's, 5 INTs, 51.5% completion
Projected over 16: 3176 yards, 16 TD's, 20 INT's, 51.5% completion

Against non top 5 teams:

Actual: 1330 yards, 10 TD's, 9 INT's, 56.3% completion
Projected: 4256 yards, 32 TD's, 28 INT's, 56.3% completion

Tough to gauge, but long story short, against non-top 5 teams, he struggled in the Seattle game, but the others he played very well and within himself, not forcing the ball. I think this is a very solid level of play for a rookie QB.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:55 am 
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BD wrote:
So, when you look at two QB's and you see one QB that has a passer rating 10 points below another, and who over the course of a season is projected to have, two less TDs, 4 more INT's, and who is on pace to throw for about 300 less yards, with a completion percentage about 7% lower,

I'm getting confused when QB rating matters. I think this is the logic.

If Cutler's QB rating > other QB's rating, then it matters.
If Cutler's QB rating < other QB's rating, then it's "primarily a function of his INT's".

BD wrote:
you see the same player?

Guilty as charged. They aren't the same player.

Would you like me to run that same criteria with these 15 QB's and then you can tell me if "you see the same player"?
Brees
Favre
Rodgers
Manning
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Schaub
Brady
Warner
McNabb
Romo
Flacco
Eli Manning
Orton(!)
Palmer
Criteria as you stated:
1)Passer rating -lower than all of them
2)TD passes -on pace for less than all but Orton and Flacco
3)Interceptions -almost all of those QB's won't throw 20 ints for the season. Maybe all of them. On pace to destroy all those people
4)Completion percentage-Cutler is at 62.6%, every other QB in that list is above 60%

So, I admit that that Stafford and Cutler aren't the same player. The stats show you are 100% right.
Now, what do you say about the 15 players above then?

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 8:58 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
BD wrote:
So, when you look at two QB's and you see one QB that has a passer rating 10 points below another, and who over the course of a season is projected to have, two less TDs, 4 more INT's, and who is on pace to throw for about 300 less yards, with a completion percentage about 7% lower,

I'm getting confused when QB rating matters. I think this is the logic.

If Cutler's QB rating > other QB's rating, then it matters.
If Cutler's QB rating < other QB's rating, then it's "primarily a function of his INT's".

BD wrote:
you see the same player?

Guilty as charged. They aren't the same player.

Would you like me to run that same criteria with these 15 QB's and then you can tell me if "you see the same player"?
Brees
Favre
Rodgers
Manning
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Schaub
Brady
Warner
McNabb
Romo
Flacco
Eli Manning
Orton(!)
Palmer
Criteria as you stated:
1)Passer rating -lower than all of them
2)TD passes -on pace for less than all but Orton and Flacco
3)Interceptions -almost all of those QB's won't throw 20 ints for the season. Maybe all of them. On pace to destroy all those people
4)Completion percentage-Cutler is at 62.6%, every other QB in that list is above 60%

So, I admit that that Stafford and Cutler aren't the same player. The stats show you are 100% right.
Now, what do you say about the 15 players above then?


I say that of that list, if I had to pick Cutler or that QB to run my team with long term implications factored in, it would look like this:

1. Brees - Clearly taken over Cutler
2. Favre - I'd rather have Cutler, but only because Favre can't play more than a couple seasons while Cutler has 10 left.
3. Rodgers - Close one. Right now, you'd have to say Rodgers.
4. Manning - Definitely take Peyton Manning.
5. Rivers - Another close one. Like Rodgers, you'd have to go with Rivers at this point.
6. Roethlisberger - I'd rather have Cutler.
7. Schaub - I'd rather have Cutler today, but if Schaub has back to back seasons like that, I may change my tune.
8. Brady - Clearly I would take Brady.
9. Warner - Same as Favre. I'd rather have Cutler today as Warner would be dead behind our OL.
10. McNabb - Close again. McNabb is clearly winding down. Only a single game over 270 yards passing despite those WR's this year.
11. Romo - I'd rather have Cutler. I'm not a big Romo fan. Too inconsistent and doesn't show up for the big games.
12. Flacco - I'd rather have Cutler, but I like Flacco.
13. Eli - Clearly rather have Cutler.
14. Orton - Definitely rather have Cutler.
15. Palmer - I think I'd rather have Cutler due to his youth and Palmer hasn't quite been the same since that injury.

All in all, I would stack rank a top tier of QB's and then a second tier. Right now, I'd put Cutler in the bottom of the 2nd tier, right around 7th to 10th overall.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:05 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I'm getting confused when QB rating matters. I think this is the logic.

If Cutler's QB rating > other QB's rating, then it matters.
If Cutler's QB rating < other QB's rating, then it's "primarily a function of his INT's".


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:13 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
stafford's going to be great.


Too bad he's on the Lions. Or good thing he's on the Lions.

Could the Lions have taken Cutler, Denver Orton and the Bears the Lions 1st overall in the draft back in the Spring, or did McDaniels only want the Lions 1st overall pick if the Lions got Cutler?

Stafford getting up off the turf with a separated shoulder and throwing that TD against Cleveland no doubt gave him a huge jolt of confidence (thanks to Mangenius calling a timeout and allowing Stafford to check back in). If Stafford learns to recognize|read NFL defenses, he'll stop throwing picks and jump ahead of Cutler. Lions might be wise to platoon Stafford a bit over the rest of the season. Let him watch his team's offense from the sidelines a quarter or two a game and keep him from taking a more serious injury. Not really sure what the Lions would gain by having Stafford take all the snaps the rest of the way.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:35 pm 
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bd you really think rivers/rodgers are pretty interchangeable with cutler

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