This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. The only requirement is that you must provide at least one reason for each pick. If you post a pick without a reason, your picks that week will not be counted in the standings. (That's why Sabu's picks from last week are not counted...which is good for him). The only other requirement to win the season-ending prize is that you must have at least 50 picks (college and/or NFL combined). This contest will run through the end of the NFL regular season and all of the college bowl games.

Standings After First Week

Hawkeye Vince................1-0
Matt Murton's Beard.........2-2
Reents............................1-1
Good Dolphin..................1-1
Coast2Coast...................1-1
donspiracy......................1-3
Doug..............................0-2


Lines for this week's games are here:
http://www.thegreek.com/sports/football ... =0.5506387

Week 2 Adventures In Pain

Georgia -3 at South Carolina (39 1/2)

Bulldogs three headed QB gives Spurrier more fits than a bunker shot.
4 FG's, 4 TD's, 40 points, for the over.
Georgia 24 S. Carolina 16

Ohio St. +2 1/2 at Texas (51)

Buckeyes "D" shows that 'horns QB Colt Cabana not quite ready for primetime. Late FG yields mixed results, but stays under the total.
Texas 26 OSU 24

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CSFMB: Home of the small minded

College: Iowa State-UNLV OVER 52-1/2
Iowa State looks like a team that is going to play a fair number of shootouts this year. The Clones have playmakers on offense and real questions on defense. The Clones are young on D with only four returning starters and Toledo QB Cochran lit them up for 370 yards on 39/49 passing. The Clones had little pass rush and very loose coverage in the secondary. UNLV looks like the kind of team that can take advantage of these defensive shortcomings. New QB Rocky Hinds, a transfer from USC, threw for over 300 yards last week and the Rebels put up 54 points and over 500 yards of total offense, albeit against a bad Idaho State team. The Rebels did allow Idaho State nearly 300 yards passing, though, and Idaho State’s passing game won’t be confused with Iowa State’s. The Clones’ QB Meyer has shown he is a playmaker and he has two outstanding wideouts in Blythe and Flynn who are all-conference caliber receivers. This one looks like it could be another track meet for Iowa State.

NFL: GREEN BAY +3-1/2 vs. Chicago
The Bears’ first team offense looked out of sync throughout most of the preseason and only managed one measly passing TD against a bad Cleveland D the entire preseason. Rex Grossman looks like he’s still not quite ready for the NFL, as the only thing he appears to be consistent with is his inconsistency. He throws too many passes high, low, wide and just out of reach of his receivers, and none of the Bears’ receivers are good enough to make up for his erratic arm. The Packers’ D has several questions, particularly in pass coverage, but Grossman doesn’t seem like the guy to answer those questions...as Carson Palmer of Cincy did in the preseason. Grossman is no Carson Palmer. Too often, he plays like Jesse Palmer, who actually is the guy Grossman was 2nd string to for a while at Florida. The Bears will likely have to rely on their running game to make up for their deficiencies at QB, and again, except for the Cleveland game, the Bears’ line opened up very few holes for its backs in the preseason. The Bears’ defense will be a top unit in the league, but right now, it looks like it has some questions in the secondary. Steve Smith exposed Peanut Tillman in last year’s playoffs as the Bears’ weakest link and Tillman was picked on repeatedly (and successfully) in the preseason. I expect Favre to be looking Peanut’s way a lot and feasting on roasted Peanut with passes to Driver and Jennings. If history is any kind of guide, the Packers look like the play. The Bears have won and covered exactly ONE game in the last 8 years as a road favorite. With Favre under center, the Packers are 8-2-1 ATS as home dogs. The Packers owned the Bears in recent years, until last year. How quickly Bears fans forget that their beloved couldn’t beat Favre for the better part of the last decade. Sure, the overall talent level of the Packers is down a bit, but last year’s Packers team was devastated by injuries. Last year’s Bears team was virtually free of injuries to key players (except for Grossman) and they won the division as a result. With the excitement of a new coach and opening day at Lambeau in what likely will be Favre’s last year, I look for the Packers to have the emotional edge and regain the edge on the field as well. Laying more than a FG on the road in the NFL with a team that has significant questions at QB is almost an automatic take with the dog. I see Favre making just enough plays that Grossman or the Bears running game simply can’t match.

Weak 2: Can I get at least one correct?

ND -7 1/2

Brady Quinn will rediscover his touch this week. The running game got going in the 2nd half vs. Ga Tech. It should do so immediately against Penn State. I expect ND to come firing on all cylinders. This game will be close until the middle of the 3rd quarter, but I think ND wins by 10 with a late TD and FG


Bears -3 1/2

The Bears give the ball to Thomas Jones all day long. The Bears D forces 3 turnovers all but killing any kind of Favre heroics. Favre shows his age and the Bears D takes complete advantage. Grossman throws a 4 yard TD pass.

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@audioidkid

It's still early in the week so I will edit to include other choices but for right now:

Miami +1 @ Pitt. I believe this line opened at Miami +4 but jumped due to Roethlisberger being out. In the euphoria of a super bowl victory, people seem to have forgotten that Pitt had to go on a huge run at the end of the season just to make the playoffs. Bettis running over Urlacher gave them life to limp into the playoffs and then Pitt had an unbelievable run of luck in the championship tourney (Palmer injury, Roethlisberger game saving tackle at Indy, horrible officiating in SB).

Also forgotton is that the fish went on a similarly impressive run to close out it's season 9-7 (granted it was against bad teams). But as Pitt has gotten weaker, Miami has gotten much stronger. I am a huge believer in Culpepper. I think he will have a big impact on an aleady good recieving crew (Chambers, Booker and TE), which will have a big impact on a run game that was already impressive against 8 in the box.

I would have taken the fish with Big Ben. I love them with Charlie Batch. I say take the fish in a 3 star play (out of 5).

Coast


mea culpa and message received on the failure to write sentence fragments (shitty picks also on my part). I would ask to have those added to my running week 2 total and I got the message)

later
sabu

Ok here we go

Ohio State +2 - No I don't buy home field advantage affecting a big time team like OSU. They play in some of the noisest craziest stadiums in the Big 10 and play big time ball. The Troy Smith to Ted Ginn combonation will be too much for this CB-thin Texas team to handle. OSU wins by at least a touchdown.


Seattle -6 - I am not sold on Jon Kitna. Everyone thinks that Martz is going to bring alot to the table with this offense. I just don't see Jon Kitna igniting this offense over a superior Seattle D, and the wicked sick running game of Shaun Alexander. Seattle takes this by at least 2 TDs.


Tennessee / Airforce (46) Over
I see Tennesse alone putting 46 on the board in this game. They destroyed a Cal team that looked impressive coming into the season. Keep an eye on Eric Ainge, him and Meachem make a dangerous offensive duo. There will be at least 52-55 points scored in this game.

Wake Forest -19, Duke lost 13-0 against divison 1-AA opponent Richmond at home, so I see Wake Forest to win by atleast 3 TD's.

Panthers -5, the Panthers own Michael Vick, I see the Panthers defense holding the Falcons and Steve Smith should get into the endzone. The Panthers should win the game by a TD.

Rams +3 1/2 , the Rams are at home and getting points, the Rams have one of the loudest statdiums in sports. They have a new coach, improved defense and a commitment to the run. I like the Rams to win this game and be in the hunt for the NFC wildcard.

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"Do work, son" -Big Black

Rutgers -11
Rutgers was impressive on the road last week and gave up less points then the Illini did to Eastern Illinois. Rutgers can run the ball which will open up the accurate pass game. U of I will turn the ball over and give Rutgers plenty of opportunities to score.

Chicago -3 ½
Green Bay will turn the ball over a lot and I expect at least one defensive TD. The Bears offense should spend a lot of time on the field, with some long drives and should destroy Green Bay.

San Diego 3
SD offensive line is a little shaky, but LDT could still win MVP. Their front 7 on Defense is very good and will put a ton of pressure on Brooks; Oakland’s offensive line will look lost. The Bay Area is in for some awful football this year.

New England 9
NE will have a great running attack this year and should make a good run at the Super Bowl. Bills front 7 is weak and Patriots will run, forcing the Bills to bring up some of that solid secondary and the Pats will burn them deep.[/b]

Adding a few more to this week's card that are off the beaten path. The high profile games get the most action and have the sharpest lines, and if there are soft lines, they are often in games many avoid.

Idaho+17@ Washington State
The battle of the Paloose (schools are 8 miles apart) matches a proven winner (Dennis Erickson) against the coach with the worst spread record in the nation for coaches in their jobs three years or more (Bill Doba of Wazu who after last week is now 13-21 or 38% ATS). Not only that, but Idaho has 16 starters back, including their QB. This is a veteran team that won’t be awed by their neighbor. Erickson showed last week that this Vandals team will be quite different from previous years as they gave Michigan State a game. Wazu was run over by Auburn last week and, while this team likely will be improved this year, they weren’t competitive in game one. However, the "expected improvement" appears to be reflected in this line. Shaking off the kind of beating Wazu got last week is one thing. Covering a 17 point nut in a local rivalry against a team with a better coach, a veteran QB and a big play offense is quite another. I make this number 14, so will take the value as I find it.

UTEP +7 vs. Texas Tech
UTEP’s win at San Diego last week will look pretty good at the end of the season, as I expect SDSU to be in the hunt for the Mountain West title. But UTEP should look pretty fine on its own, as I expect this team to be in the mix for the CUSA crown. This week, the veteran UTEP returns home to face the high-powered Tech team with its QB Harrell making his first road start. While Tech was impressive last week vs. SMU, UTEP is a much more balanced and veteran team on both sides of the ball (16 returning starters, with 9 on defense vs. just 5 returning starters on D for TT). Three new starters in the secondary could be a problem for Tech, which last week’s opponent SMU wasn’t capable of exploiting. Palmer of UTEP can. The situational edge goes to UTEP, playing at home facing an in-state rival from a bigger conference. The value also lies with UTEP. Because of their high-powered offense, Tech is often over-valued. I think they are here too, as I make this number 2-1/2. Getting more than a TD at home with the more veteran team is a gift. I like gifts.

A Who Do You Love 6-Pack.

College
Oregon State +8 vs Boise State- Boise State doesn't play well against the big schools last season and Oregon State looked good last week.

Clemson -2.5 over Boston College- Boston College didn't handle Central Michigan last week and Clemson is ready to make a run in the ACC.

Ohio State +2.5 vs Texas- Ohio State shows their ready to make a run for the National Title and starts for exposing the Texas defense.

NFL
Bengals Chiefs over 46.5- The Chiefs won last years meeting 37-3 with none of the Bengals starters barely playing, so the scoring will be high.

Ravens +3 vs Buccanneers- The Ravens D finally has a quarterback they fell safe with and shut out the overrated Chris Simms.

Cowboys +2.5 vs Jaguars- Terrell Owens shows Cowboys fans want they've been waiting for against the overrated Jaguars.

Good Luck to all.

Hawkeye Vince is going to stay with college this week. Pros are such a bitch the first week.

Rutgers - 10.5 vs Illinois: Rutgers might be turning the corner. The only corner Illinois is turning is into the loss column this week.

Syracuse +19 vs Iowa: Syracuse is not a good team, but Iowa might be looking ahead to ISU and road contests are not their specialty in September. Iowa wins but doesn't cover the big number.

Wake Forest - 19 vs. Duke: Duke is probably the worst football team in the country.

Penn State +7.5 @ ND: Morelli's got a nice handle on the QB slot and the Defense is tough with Paul P. back. Will give Brady fits.

Akron +10 @ NC State AND under 41.5: The Wolf Pack's D is tough but their O is very vanilla and average. Don't be surprised to see a 10-7 final.

6 picks this week.

I keep finding dogs......

Mississippi +10 @ Missouri
Brent Schaefer was pretty impressive last week running the Ole Miss offense, making good decisions in the passing game and using his speed to gain key yards on the run. It’s also evident that there is some talent around him, particularly in the backfield with Green-Ellis and McCluster, who led the Rebels to 240 yards rushing. McCluster looks like an exciting freshman, as he caught six passes for 86 yards, ran four times for 60 yards and returned 5 kickoffs for 122 yards. That’s the kind of playmaker Ole Miss hasn’t had in a while, and was the fourth-best single game all purpose yardage game in the school’s history. The Rebels also used to be considered the “slow and small” team in the SEC, but it’s evident this team is faster, if not bigger also. This also looks like a good spot for Ole Miss as they travel to Columbia. After four years of Brad Smith at QB, the Tigers are breaking in a new QB, Daniel. He had a nice game throwing 5 TDs last week against I-AA Murray State, but this week he faces an SEC defense, not an Ohio Valley one. I think there is value in this number as I make this line 4.5. Having a Big 12 team overvalued by the linesmakers is not at all unusual. It happens a lot. I just ran the numbers to confirm my suspicions. Sure enough, in the last five years in regular season games against the other BCS conferences (Big 10, Big East, ACC, SEC, Pac Ten,), Big 12 teams were just 22-31 ATS (41%).

ok (1-3 without evidence to support my picks, not that the evidence would help). Apparetly June Jones knew that I was talking about him as Hawaii covered the number.


After the shellacking I took last week, I look to get right.

West Michgan- Toledo (over 51')
out of the box, this number seems a bit low here [id look for it to move up]. LW toledo went to 3 OTs which could be an harbinger of a high O/U line due to the OT, but the Rocket also has shown the ability to avg 35.2 pts per game in 05, 33.2 ppg on 04, 32.4 ppg in 03) Toledo returns 8 on offense and 7 on defense. WMU is a team that averaged 32.2 ppg in 05 returned 6 on offense and 8 on defense. WMU gave up 39 to Indiana and put 20 on the board themselves. I looked to WMU to make a better go of it v the Hoosier, but no dice. Just the same if the weather stays dry at WMU at night, look for the scoreboard to be lit up like a pachinko machine and the 51' shouldnt be too much of a problem. Interesting aside, WMU is 0-10 SU and ATS as a home dog over the last 4 years.

Ohio State v. Texas (OSU +2')
this one is the tasty game of the week pitting 1 v. 2. Hard losses do not fade away in the minds of great players and OSU's bitter spitting of the bit 22-25 v. the longhorn last year will stick in the mind of Tressel's loaded Buckeye squad. OSUs problem is the fact that only 2 return on Defense. This year, however, the 7 returning offensive players are Formula 1 cars out there. QB Smith, RB Pittman WR Ginn, Gonzalez, and Robiske are waiting and remembering what happened last year. OSU is 8-3 in their last 11 games after a SU victory. Texas returns 6 on O and 7 on D. I look to the light, sound and heat of the National Spotlight to be a bit too much for the young Colt McCoy (he might have thrown 47 TDs in High School), but we are a far way from dreams of high school glory on ABC and OSU is hungry for vengance. Not to go too nuts here, but I look for OSU to make a statement here and take it by 7 to 10 points.

Iowa -19 v. Syracuse

This one looks to be an Iowa blowout in my opinion, Iowa returns 7 on O and 7 on D. Iowa is 7-3-1 on artificial turf in the last 6 years. Iowa also is 20-12 ATS after a straight up win (although Montana hardly counts as a win, more like a practice game). The Orangemen are 21-8 ATS as a home dog since '83 which speaks volumes for Syracuse home field advantage, however, the turf of the Carrier Dome actually works to the disadvantage of Syracuse in that I look for the speed of Iowa to turn this one into a one sided fathers against sons game at the company picnic. Syracuse returns 4 on defense and that D will have a long day against a Hawkeye team that should

It sucks starting the weekend 0-1, and I really do not like anything in the NFL this weekend. So to Saturday we go:

Colorado +2 against Col St. in Denver
This game is always an early season favorite of mine. It is a spirited affair at a great venue and always provided an opportunity for an early season Gary Barnett loss. Well Barnett is out and Hawkins is in...and he was embarassed last week. However, he is a poster boy for PMO and an offensive innovator. In a normal year, Colorado would be laying points, simply on reputation alone. I look at it as value here as people do not know what to make of the new look Buffs. CSU is the type of team that gets better as the year goes on. I look for this game to be Hawkins' coming out party and a rather easy win for Colorado.

Minnesota at Cal over 54
Cal was embarassed last weekend at Tennessee. There is no shame in that as Tennessee is one of the tougher venues to win at. In addition Vols played good D down the stretch in a bad season last year. Minnesota on the other hand, believes the best D is a good O...and they have a good O. Minnesota has consistently put up points against the best D over the years. It is especially encouraging that the Gophers always seem to peak early in the season. In addition the Gopher O never quits. They are used to playing from behind, have a senior QB and can move it by land or air. I see this one having a winner in the 40's and a loser in the 30's.

some great stuff this week. appreciate all the input. another one in the NFL...

Cleveland -3 vs. New Orleans
New Orleans may have added Brees and Bush, but they are going to need a lot more than a few skill position players to win more than five games this year. Joe Square bettor might like the Saints this year with Brees and Bush. But the Aints have lousy offensive and defensive lines, the worst set of linebackers in the league and suspect cornerbacks. They dumped three offensive line starters and have a different face at each offensive line position than last year. They are implementing a new offensive system and struggled big time with it in the preseason. Both Crennel and Payton are using Parcells-inspired offensive systems, but Cleveland has a big edge with this being year two of their using it. Cleveland has its own issues, particularly at center, where they have gone through EIGHT different centers in training camp. And the secondary was beaten up in camp. But they traded for all-pro Fraley to anchor the center position and the CBs Baxter and McCutcheon are now healthy enough to play. Cleveland will be a play “ON” team in certain spots when the public undervalues them (which is to be expected considering they are a losing team and their improvement won’t be recognized by media types and square bettors until they notch some wins), while the Aints will be a team to bet against until their lines show some cohesion and they show some reason to bet on them. I’m going to get this one now as this number is headed for 3-1/2.

Still under consideration: Detroit (going to wait to see if I can get +7) , Carolina (going to wait to see if I can get -4), Dallas.

Stanford-San Jose State OVER 54
I graduated from both of these schools, so this game has special meaning for me....the cannabis cloud at Spartan Stadium, the Asian chicks in San Jose, the stoned Stanford Band running around the Farm, the brainy beauties. OH yeah..the game. Both these teams air it out and both teams have lousy defenses. Stanford gave up 40+ to Oregon last week and San Jose gave up 30+ to a lousy Washington team. Big plays galore with big play offenses against lousy defenses. If you watch this game, look for the traditional "cloud" of smoky haze in the Spartan student section. It's a great college tradition. First one to 35 wins.

Week 2

UCLA -27.5 over Rice

UCLA looked good in their 21 pt win last week against Utah with their QB going 25-33 with 3TD's and no INT's. They go up against a Rice team that has changed offensive strategy this year making their first road trip against a decent UCLA D. I think UCLA gets this one going away. They beat Rice last year 63-21.

Vandy +16 over Alabama

Vanderbilt hung tough with Michigan last week at the Big House. Now they go to Alabama and face a team that got by Hawaii by 8 last week. Vandy plays Bama tough as they are 8-2 lately against them ATS. Also with Bama's failure to cover last week they are now on a 0-7 ATS run as a home favorite. I will take the points in this one with Vandy.

Michigan/Central Michigan OVER 46.5

MICHIGAN is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games with Central Michigan and has won them by an average of 26 points so they have dominated the series...I'm not sure if Michigan can win by 28 or more, but I do think they will play better than they did last week vs. Vanderbilt when they got off to a slow start. I expect their offense to put up 30-40 points, and Central Michigan to hopefully do the rest, which hopefully shouldn't be to much.

Look at you, with the big time edumacation and all. How did a boy from the Quad Cities ever get to SJSU?

summer road trip after my freshman year at the U. of Missouri. Met the Bay Area and decided not to go back.

Well, that explains one coast. How about the other one.

First job was below expectations and the future was cloudy. Grad school seemed like the thing to do.

Not the other school, I meant the other coast.

Dolphin, You are on the side of the sharps today. Billy Walters, the founder of the "Computer Group" who is legendary for his huge plays and ability to move lines instantaneously, has dumped a load on Colorado. His computers apparently say Buffs today. Colo now the favorite. If you bought Colorado as a dog, you got a good number.

4-2 this week. Rutgers, Syracuse, Akron and the under win.

Still waiting for a few NFL games (Carolina, Detroit) to hit the target numbers. If they don't hit the key numbers (-4/+7), I don't play em. Dallas now the chalk, so they're out of consideration.

One total for today:
SF-Arizona OVER 43
Niners defense looks to be worse than last year's pathetic bunch that finished last in the league. And their soft zone coverages should be just what Zona needs to give their receivers space to make plays. Niners pass rush is lame. It's a perfect matchup for the Zona offense, and this could become a blowout. But there is no way I lay the wood with a Zona team that had a pretty bad defense itself. Even though the Niners let their best receiver from last year (Lloyd) go, Bryant looks to be better. And Gore looks to be healthy. And the Niners did upgrade their offensive line slightly, so expect Smith to stay on his feet a bit more this year.

Sunday NFL

New England -10 over Buffalo

Dick Jauron makes his Buffalo debut today with a big ? at QB. Have to see New England as being the more ready of the 2 teams today in the opener. New England also 8-1 ATS as favs in home openers while Buffalo is 0-5 ATS when opening away. I like New England.