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doug - evergreen park
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:11 pm 
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you're right...i did. i had sobbing Dick on my mind (pun).

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:12 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
there were 7 first time head coaches as losers in the past 10 super bowls.

Jeff Fisher (SB 34)
Jim Fassel (who lost to first time coach Brian Billick in Super Bowl 35)
Bill Callahan (SB 37)
John Fox (SB 38)
Andy Reid (SB 39)
Lovie Smith (SB 41)
Ken Whisenhunt (SB 43)

First time coaches to win the Super Bowl in that time. Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, and Mike Tomlin.


Wasn't Dungy a first time winner?

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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:13 pm 
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Dungy was with TB.

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doug - evergreen park
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:14 pm 
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yep....he coached tampa bay and was fired the year before Gruden won....(see my post above about Grungy)

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:14 pm 
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And, this may be stretching the 10yr limit, but Belicheck won his first outing as well

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RFDC
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:14 pm 
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It seems people are talking about 2 different things.

First time in the Superbowl

or

First time headcoach with a team

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doug - evergreen park
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:15 pm 
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nope...he coached cleveland.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:17 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
It seems people are talking about 2 different things.

First time in the Superbowl

or

First time headcoach with a team


:oops:

Reading the entire thread, or perhaps just thinking about it for a moment would've helped. I apologi.

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doug - evergreen park
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:44 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
It seems people are talking about 2 different things.

First time in the Superbowl

or

First time headcoach with a team



what is the argument though? clearly first time coaches can win their conferences and get to the super bowl....
but they only win 30% of the time (in the past 10 years).

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FavreFan
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:47 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
there were 7 first time head coaches as losers in the past 10 super bowls.

Jeff Fisher (SB 34)
Jim Fassel (who lost to first time coach Brian Billick in Super Bowl 35)
Bill Callahan (SB 37)
John Fox (SB 38)
Andy Reid (SB 39)
Lovie Smith (SB 41)
Ken Whisenhunt (SB 43)

First time coaches to win the Super Bowl in that time. Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, and Mike Tomlin.

in that same 10 year period....
first time coach John Gruden left the Raiders to coach against Bill Callahan in the following years Super Bowl for Tampa Bay...

going back to 12 super bowls and we have another first time coach in Mike Holmgren.

so, 10 out of 20 coaches in the past 10 super bowls were first time coaches.
11 out of the 24 coaches in the past 12 super bowls were first time coaches.

Bill Cowher is the only first time head coach to lose and win a SB with the same team.
Mike Holmgren is the only head coach to win (Packers) and then lose (Seahawks) a SB with different teams (in 12 years)....losing to first time coach Bill Cowher.

so...basically you have a shitty chance of winning the super bowl as a first time coach. but a pretty good chance of losing the super bowl as a first time coach.

doug, you forgot holmgren also lost the packers 2nd super bowl

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Irish Boy
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:49 pm 
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Fun with Miniscule Sample Sizes

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Jalapenos and More
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:57 pm 
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Who is the last head coach the Bears employed that had previous NFL head coaching experience? The closest thing I can find is Jack Pardee coming to the Bears from the WFL Florida Blazers.

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doug - evergreen park
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:58 pm 
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see...i've been wrong twice. Holmgren is even more distinguished!

I would guess that the numbers stay relatively the same if you went back to Super Bowl I.
the 70s-90s could be skewed a bit with Chuck Knoll, Tom Landry, Jimmie Johnson, Barry Switzer, Mike Ditka, Marv Levy, Joe Gibbs, John Madden, Bill Walsh, Don Shula et al...
but, I think half of those guys above were first time head coaches when they won or lost their first SB.

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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:33 pm 
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Jalapenos and More wrote:
Who is the last head coach the Bears employed that had previous NFL head coaching experience? The closest thing I can find is Jack Pardee coming to the Bears from the WFL Florida Blazers.


Paddy Driscoll is the only one ever. Coached the Cardinals in '22.

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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:53 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
Fun with Miniscule Sample Sizes


20 of the 86 coached games in Super Bowl history (23.2% of the population), all being the most recent which is most relevant to the game as it is currently played.

Record of coaches with previous head-coaching experience: 7-2
Record of first-time coaches: 3-8

With one of the first-timer wins being a coach with a million years experience. I am using previous experience as a short-cut for years experience but the point remains the same. Starting over with a new coach is likely, by recent experience, a long road to a Super Bowl win.

I would be more interested in the Super Bowl records of coaches with 4 years or less experience and those with 5+ over the last 20-25 years but I'm too lazy to look it up. I wouldn't count the pre-1980s since guys tended to keep their jobs longer and personnel tended to stay together longer.

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Irish Boy
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:02 pm 
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Bill Belicheck accounts for 20% of your sample size. Yes, he was an "experienced" coach. He was also really, really bad the first time. Should the Bears hire Mike Tice because shitty retread coaches are 3-1 on the rare occasions they make the Super Bowl?

Three of the four coaches with byes in the playoffs this year are new coaches. Five of the six coaches from the NFC are "new" coaches, as defined by them being with their first team. The exception was Wade Phillips, and I doubt he'd be the type of coach Bears fans would be beating down the door to get. Ditto Norv Turner out in San Diego.

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Frank Coztansa
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:24 pm 
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If the computers say to hire Mike Tice, then yes. Besides, its only a "championship" after all.

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Spaulding
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:32 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
So, wouldn't the team be much better if they fixed everything else? In your analogy, the light fixture and a coat of paint are fairly superficial.
My basic point is that the defense of Cutler all year has been just how bad everything is around him. Now, all of a sudden, we need a coach who can fix him. It seems to be a contradiction. Our goal should be to fix our biggest problem(s). Does Cutler make that list?


I think Cutler needs a coach that will build around him and a staff in general that works with what they have. I think Lovie has proven it's not him. This offense should be further along than it is and should have shown signs of improvement at the very least. If anything it has regressed.

Cutler's issues can be fixed and to a large degree his problems are superficial.
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Hawkeye Vince
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:42 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
And the zone blocking scheme isn't even his scheme. You can hire Alex Gibbs to run your offense for a fraction of the money. Shanahan isn't a "zone blocking" guy per se. Besides, lots of teams run zone blocking schemes now, and as it expands it's proven not nearly as successful since everyone sees it.

Just call Kirk Ferentz
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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:49 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
If you fix Chris Williams, you fix a lot of what is ailing this offense.



Stand back boys, there's a genius at work here.

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Spaulding
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:50 am 
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this was brought up last night...did you mean put him at LT? When I read it I thought you to mean he wasn't very good.
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Douchebag
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:51 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
If you fix Chris Williams, you fix a lot of what is ailing this offense.



Stand back boys, there's a genius at work here.

Did you just blow yourself?

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lipidquadcab
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Did you just blow yourself?


Follow up...if you did, how?
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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:56 am 
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Spaulding wrote:
this was brought up last night...did you mean put him at LT? When I read it I thought you to mean he wasn't very good.


I have said since the Pace injury that I think you can win with Williams at LT, Schaffer at RT and Omiyale as the swing. If this is true, the rehabilitation of the offensive line is fairly easy. Get a veteran OG to replace Beekman, draft an OG to battle Garza and stop this foolishness of cutting ties with Kreutz.

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Irish Boy
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:58 am 
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Is the long term plan still to replace Kreutz with Beekman? Either way, fixing the interior is way easier than fixing the tackle positions.

I'm not sold on Shaeffer though.

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lipidquadcab
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good dolphin wrote:
Get a veteran OG to replace Beekman, draft an OG to battle Garza and stop this foolishness of cutting ties with Kreutz.


Wait...there's more than one OG?

Image

Good lord, help us all...
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Spaulding
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 11:00 am 
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Kruetz is done and needs to be replaced the day this season ends.
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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 11:01 am 
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Irish Boy wrote:
I'm not sold on Shaeffer though.


It's not like he is a rookie. He reportedly played well as a RT in Cleveland. He had his problems at LT.

As I said, I think you can win with him there. He's not an All Pro.

The one clear thing to me is that Pace is done. Why was this not clear to Lovie?

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Spaulding
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They've all been playing out of position. I don't like omiyale either.


Lovie is a stubborn boob.
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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 11:05 am 
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Spaulding wrote:
Kruetz is done and needs to be replaced the day this season ends.


I haven't liked Kreutz for a couple of seasons, but I think he is overcompensating for some really bad OL play around him. If he only has to do his job, I think he can still do it.

I'm not talking about a superior offensive line here with my thoughts. Just a solid group of no names with Williams hopefully emerging next year as a cornerstone.

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