This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. A prize valued at over $100 will be given to the person with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to qualify for the prize.

Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

Player.........................This Week....................Overall.......................%

Rocks and Blows...............2-2-1.......................10-3-1......................77
Hawkeye Vince.................2-1..........................7-3...........................70
Coast..............................6-3-1.......................16-15-3.....................52
Matt Murton’s Beard..........1-3..........................8-8...........................50
Bud Dude........................3-2..........................8-8............................50
Doug...............................0-1-1......................3-4-1.........................43
sabu...............................2-2..........................4-5-1.........................42
the gooch........................1-2..........................4-5............................42
Good dolphin...................0-0.........................2-3.............................40
donspiracy......................0-4..........................6-9-1.........................40
reents.............................2-5.........................7-13...........................35
BD..................................0-0.........................1-3............................25
Chus...............................0-2.........................0-3............................0

Kansas City/San Fran over 39
Neither defense can stop anyone. The 49ers have shown they can move the ball and Kansas City still has a formidable offense even without Green and the tackles who retired.


Ohio St - 7
Iowa is one of the most over-rated teams in college football. The Buckeyes are a much better team and should be able to cover one touchdown.



Michigan/Minnesota under 50.5
Minnesota struggled to score against Purdue, and will hard pressed to score more than 14 or 17 against one of the best defenses in the country. Michigan has the ability to run out the clock when they get a lead.



Green Bay +11
Philadelphia's secondary has been decimated by injuries. Favre can still bring it and with the emergence of Greg Jennings, he has two dependable receivers to go along with Green and Franks.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Tuesday Night Football
Central Florida +6 vs. So. Miss
I will take the home dog in a revenge situation with their RB returnng here. By my PRs there are a few pts of value here.

Thursday
South Carolina +14

Auburn's offense has struggled the last two weeks. South Carolina's offense came to life last week, granted this is a step up in competition. Auburn destroyed the Cocks 48-7 last year, so I will take the 14 in a revenge game.


BYU + 5.5

BYU averages over 500 yards per game and has won 8 of their last 11 conference road games. This is another revenge game, the teams played a thriller in Provo last season, with the Horned Frogs rallying from an 18-point third-quarter deficit to win 51-50 in overtime.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

This will be a running list

Ball State (+7) vs. Northern Illinois: Ball State has struggled against teams that throw the ball effectively. NIU will rely on Garrett Wolfe to run for 200 yards, but the quarterbacks have looked mediocre at best this year. Expect Ball State to stack 8 or 9 in the box and force the Huskies to throw it around. At home, getting 7 seems like a good bet.

Navy (+2.5) @ Connecticut AND Under 42. This is a pretty evenly matched event with both teams being running teams. The clock will be running quite a bit since both teams pass for under 100 yards a game and run for over 200. Connecticut needed some luck last week to get past Indiana and Navy is a much better team than Indiana.

Penn State/Northwestern UNDER 41.5. Calling for showers and wind in Happy Valley today. Both teams have ok defenses and subpar offenses. Expect a low scoring affair with both teams trying to pound it out on the ground.

Michigan -9.5 @ Minnesota: God, I hate Michigan, but their run defense is stellar and Minnesota will have trouble keeping up with Manningham and Breaston outside. This one will be a shootout and I dont expect Minny to come back from a defecit.

Ohio St -7 vs Iowa - I couldn't believe this line when I saw it. Has Iowa played a really good game yet ? The Ohio St defense has been great this year, and Tate and Iowa are going to struggle offensively. Pittman is the unsung hero for the Ohio St offense, Troy Smith is coming off a subpar game against Penn St, I think he'll rebound, and the Buckeyes win this game by 17 points.

Tonight's play:

Auburn vs. South Carolina UNDER 37 1/2
Auburn's defense is the best in college football, South Carolina has a good chance of getting shut out in this game, I don't see them scoring double digits. Auburn will put a 20 spot on the board.

Auburn 24
SC 6

Penn State-Northwestern under 42
When was the last time you can remember that Northwestern's defense was actually better than its offense? The weakness and inexperience of new coach Fitzgerald is really showing in this offense. They have a new offensive coordinator hired by former coach Walker to implement Walker's spread offense, but Coach Fitz is pretty much abandoning it because...in his own words..."I don't really understand it." The fact the Cats have a rookie at QB and a veteran offensive line are additional reasons the Cats are making the transition to a between the tackles power running team. Penn State has a top ten defense (nationally) and knowing that Sutton and the Cats' rushing plays are just about all they really have to worry about, I expect them to shut down the Cats. Penn State's defensive weakness is their secondary, but Northwestern's passing game (9/21 for 122 yds. vs. Nevada last week) doesn't pose much of a threat to expose the PSU weakness. PSU's offense is nearly equally inept, but they likely will score several times because their defense will give them the ball all day in decent field position after short Northwestern possessions. The Northwestern defense was one of the worst in the nation last year, but it has shown a little spunk in spots this season against bottom 50 teams (although New Hampshire ripped it pretty good). It's possible that Penn State could put 30 on the board here if the Northwestern offense repeats its bad habit of turning the ball over too often. However, my power ratings make this game closer to 14, which means the value is with Northwestern. Frankly, though, I don’t trust either offense to cover. Northwestern might not score at all and I’ll be surprised if they get to double digits against the PSU defense. 24-6 sounds about right, which would be a nice double digit cover on the under.

Miami Hurricanes - 16 vs. U. of Houston
Houston has looked pretty impressive beating bad opponents like Tulane and mediocre opponents like Oklahoma State. Now they have to travel to Miami to meet a bigger and faster Miami team that has been stewing at home in anger after a bad loss. This doesn't happen to the guys at the U. It's not about their season so much right now as about their freaking manhood. If you were on the Miami team, would you want Ray Lewis giving you hell about the way you sucked? I don't THINK so. Larry Coker may be a dead man walking, but in this spot, I think the Canes use their talent and speed to bounce back big time. Houston's spread offense might be fun, but Kolb won't be able to run it when there are Miami guys in his face all day. Let's not forget that Miami lost to two top 12 teams in FSU and Lousville. Houston isn't a top 25 team on either side of the ball. The Miami defense will be the best unit on the field in this one. And they might score themselves. And against a bad defense like Houston, the Miami offense -- which has performed more like a tropical depression than a hurricane -- might actually be respectable....especially if their defense gives them the ball with great field position.

Toledo +16 @ Pittsburgh
There are a few reasons I like the Rockets here. First, by my numbers, there are several points of value here. I’m not a slave to my power ratings, but I do think Pitt is getting a bit too much love from the linesmakers. The last time we saw Pitt in a lined game, we saw Wannie go away from what was working (the ground game) and let Palko air it out. Michigan State got back in the game and took control of it so fast Pitt wondered what happened. Which leads me to my second point: Wannie is one of my main “bet against” coaches. He has underachieved and hasn’t gotten any of his teams...in college or pro...to play to their talent level. Pitt QB Palko is leading the nation in passing efficiency and he likely will have some success against the Toledo secondary. But that’s why we’re getting 16-1/2 points. Toledo has a new young QB, Cochran, who played well vs. Kansas two weeks ago. After he got injured, the Rockets’ level of play at QB fell. Last week, the backups ran the team in an easy win over 1-AA McNeese State. Cochran is officially “questionable” to start with an “undisclosed” injury, but all signs are pointing to him starting. He practiced Sunday and Monday and “threw the ball well”, according to Coach Anstutz, as quoted in the Toledo Blade. Anstutz has played these games with the health of players before. He did a similar guessing game with Gradkowski a few times, not disclosing the nature of the injury and not telling the media (or his opponent) whether his injured QB would play. Anstutz likes to keep the opponents guessing. With Cochran at practice this week, I expect him to start. And with him the helm, I expect the Toledo offense to move the ball against a Pitt defense with some questions in the back 7. Finally, Toledo has a sound running game with Parmele (over 5 yards/carry) and McDougle giving Toledo a bit better balance than Pitt. In fact, even with Cochran airing it out for the Rockets, I expect Toledo to outrush Pitt, and I love dogs that outrush their favored opponents.

Georgia Tech +10-1/2 @ Virginia Tech
Another overlay here with the Hokies. I’m always a bit leery backing GT QB Reggie Ball, but he seems to be making a bit better decisions (finally) this year. And with Calvin Johnson at WR, Tech has the one true gamebreaker in this matchup. Virginia Tech has demonstrated they are again playing Beemer ball with their defense and special teams. The Hokies offense was unimpressive vs. Cincinnati and North Carolina. They were respectable running the ball and QB Glennon has been somewhat efficient, but their overall offensive proficiency is several notches below last year’s team. In fact, with a pretty weak schedule so far, the Hokies have rushed for under 4 yards per carry. That leads me to believe they might be under 3 yards per carry vs. a top 20 d like Ga. Tech. Covering a double digit nut against Georgia Tech will require a level of offensive proficiency in both passing and rushing that we haven’t yet seen from the Hokies. In a low scoring game (total under 40), in which the winner might not even get to 20 points, getting 10 is huge. I’ll take the points, but think GT will take this to the wire and might just get it outright.

New Mexico State - UTEP OVER 58
The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by former Kentucky coach Hal Mumme. He is a total nut job in life and on the sidelines. When he took over as head coach, he interrogated the team's star tailback Muammar Ali (who had already played for the team for two years) about his Muslim beliefs and Al-Qaeda. He also required that his players (including the three Muslims on the team) to recite the Lords' prayer before games. Ultimately, the three Muslims were removed from the team. If the movie "Evangelicals run wild" is ever produced, he could be the poster boy for it. (By the way, the ACLU is on the case and a lawsuit has been filed against Mumme by the former players). His football coaching abilities are equally wacky. But his teams can move the ball through the air and score points. So he has that going for him, which is nice. After a winless year last year in which his team learned his crazy so-called "air raid" offense, this year his team is currently the nation's #1 passing offense and #2 in total offense. That's one part of a nice "over" coach and team. The other two parts are that Mumme has no clue about in-game coaching or how to coach defense. Remember when he was at Kentucky and he would go for it on 4th and 8 from his own territory? It's all about scoring points with him. If he loses 55-35, he'll talk about the 35 points his team scored. He's a great "over" coach and he now has the team that fits his style...ranked at the top in offense and pretty clueless on defense. Phil Steele says the NMS defense is #117 out of 119 teams. You can't tell that yet from the statistics, considering NMS has played a couple of Division I-AA teams. But that sounds about right to me...they finished last season as #118 out of 119 teams. UTEP has a passing offense with a veteran QB Palmer and pretty good receivers that should have a field day, playing at home, against one of the very worst defenses and against a coach that likely will give them great field position opportunities. But UTEP's defense has shown some holes against some mediocre offenses (San Diego State early in the season and New Mexico last week, for example). UTEP is currently 94th in the nation in total defense....so I'd expect UTEP to give up some points to the Mummies. I think this number ought to be in the 60s. UTEP should get over 40 and I think NMS ought to be able to get to 20 with their prolific passing game and a question-filled UTEP defense. These are two teams that have so many questions on defense that neither team is worth betting, in my opinion, as a side. But as an over with two good offenses against bad defenses, sure.

Let's see if we can turn this around.

Friday Rutgers -4 over SOuth Florida- Rutgers will want to show the nation they are ready for primetime and run wild over the South Floridans.

Saturday
Purdue and Notre Dame over 61- Purdue won't stop Notre Dame's offense and Notre Dame's defense will stop Purdue enough to win, but will still alow at least 20 points.

Georgia Tech gets 10.5 against Virginia Tech- Va. Tech lost 2 key players to suspenson and Georgia Tech is playing as a top notch team right now. Ball to Johnson late to cover.

Sunday
Ravens +2.5 against Chargers- The Ravens at home and with their defense against a young Phillip Rivers, look out.

Redskins +3 versus Jaguars- I think the REdskins got back on track last week and with the Jaguars coming off a loss, Hail to the Chief. Only be worried in this game if it goes into overtime.

Monday
Philadelphia -11 versus Packers0 The Eagles are ready to show their dominance again in the NFC, by blasting the Packers.

As usuall good look to everybody.

hoping for the fine side of the 50 percent clip


Kansas +22' @ Nebraska- This line is way too high for this contest. Kansas is nothing to write home about but they showed that they could play last year versus Nebraska with their win. Kansas returns 7 on their offense but only 3 on their D. I think Kansas stays with them and I like the 1' points you get over the 3 Tuddy spread here.


NIU -6' @ Ball State- Huskies bounce back versus Ball State on the back of Wolfe. Ball state could not handle North Dakota State and has lost their last 3 games. On thing that I take into account is momentum and NIU brings that in spades to this game after a conference win against Buffalo and a win over Indiana State. NIU realizes that the MAC win dreams of another bowl trip to Detroit are not gonna happen unless they run the table out, and Ball State is in their crosshairs. Wolfe averages over 200 yards per game on the ground and Ball State D gives up 27.8 ppoints per game and has shown to be worse defending the pass than the run, this week their weakness versus the run will be exposed.

Week 5 Big Ten Bullies

Iowa +6 vs. Ohio St. (43)

Home team Hawkeye keep it close.
7 total TD's is reachable. Ginn + Pittman=over.
Iowa 24 OSU 28

Michigan -10 at Minnesota (50 1/2)

Woverines rough up Minnesota badly.
Henne and WR's shred up field. Over.
Michigan 38 Minnesota 14

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Hey Sabu -Ball State is a home dog. You're laying the lumber.

Buying a few for Sunday before the lines move against me and take these to the key number of 3.

San Diego -2-1/2 vs. Baltimore
Both of these teams are undefeated against weak opponents, but I think Baltimore is by far the weaker of the two. What I've seen from Baltimore suggests that even with McNair at QB, this team is not significantly better on the offensive side of the ball. They didn't score for 3.5 quarters against Cleveland and only a couple late scores got them the W. They have lived off turnovers mainly, going +10 in TOs through the first three weeks. They can't expect to get that kind of help this week as SD simply doesn't turn it over very much. And as far as offensive proficiency is concerned, LT and the SD offense looks to be in fine form. In a battle of running games, I'll be happy to take LT and the Chargers' great line. Rivers will certainly be pressed by the Ravens D, but I don't expect the game plan to require much out of Rivers here. And speaking of game plans, it's apparent that Marty knows how to use his bye weeks to prepare for the next opponent. His Chargers have been money following a bye week in each of the last three years. Marty also prepares his boys for the road, with the Chargers on a 13-2-2 ATS run on the road. Those might be technical factors, but they are the kind I pay some attention to.

Jacksonville -2-1/2 @ Washington
Jax has had three big games in a row (Dallas, Pitt, Indy) and it's possible they are due for a flat spot here. But DelRio seems to be the kind of coach who keeps his team on an even keel. And even if they are flat, the DeadSkins are a big step down from the last three opponents. The Jax D basically has to worry about two things...Clinton Portis and the short passing game. Brunnell had a career day last week vs. Houston, but Jax is a top five defense. I think we'll see the Skins revert to the offensive struggles they had the first two weeks. The Jax offense looks much different this year. Leftwich is a more accurate passer and both Drew and Taylor are running very effectively. This probably will be a low-scoring game and I'll lay the small number with what I think is the decidedly better team.

New Orleans +7 @ Carolina- I think that the Saints are a team on a mission and they're playing for New Orleans, I think they come out and stun the panthers.

Bears - 3 1/2- No Shaun Alexander and a great Bears defense, I think the offense will be able to have success against this Seattle defense. At home on prime time television, the Bears will win by 6.

Eagles -10 1/2- They're playing the Packers the worst team in the NFL and the Eagles are at home they should win by two TDs

_________________
"Do work, son" -Big Black

Friday
South Florida + 3.5

Rutgers is over-rated. Their last three wins were over Illinois, Ohio, and Howard. This is is a big step up in class, and it it on the road.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I don’t think that jpeg in your signature is quite annoying enough. Do you have anything bigger?

Chus, you are a gentleman and a scholar. A lesser man would have fired back with an insult. But not you, my friend, you went the other way. That’s what I like to see.

Bucket..At least I now know you didn't get lost trying to find this page. I know you are an astute student, if not practitioner, of sports investing. When will you grace us with some solid investment opportunities?

It’s really a technical issue, Coast. I’m aware of the section and certainly don’t think I’m too cool for the room. The problem for me is that I have a lot of non-straight plays. First of all, I rarely take points (single digits anyway). Over the long haul, I’ve found more success from a value standpoint by playing dogs on the ML. Also, I’ve been known to play a few teasers. Some authors in the industry would have you believe there is no value in teasing. I happen to disagree. I do believe that one should not tease simply to feel more comfortable with their play, however I think at times you can find exceptional value via the tease by attacking key numbers and/or playing correlated teasers/parlays. Thirdly, I will also from time to time implement what I call the “cupcake parlay”. Many of you are probably familiar with the technique but perhaps know it by another name. I’ll use this in cases where I’ve bought a half or full point in order to position myself at a key number. I will then parlay that play with a strong home favorite on the ML to offset the vig from buying the point on the primary game. And finally, I am a big fan of advanced lines. And by this I mean betting week 5 action prior to week 4 kickoff, not betting games that are to be played 8 weeks from now. Provided I don’t take a beating in college foots tomorrow, I plan to pound 2 NFL games for next weekend. St. Louis is a pick em at Green Bay next weekend, with GB coming off of MNF on the short week. I’ll gladly take the Rams at EV on that one. The other game, which I’m still debating but likely to move on prior to Sunday kickoff, is New Orleans laying -5.5 at home against Bruce Gradkowski and the sinking ship of Buccaneers.

Given the above, Coast, I seem to be disqualified on many fronts. If the contest goes by units and not win-loss record next year, I’ll gladly jump in. In the meantime, good luck to all, and be sure to bet with your brains and not your balls. Your wallet will thank you for it later.

Thanks for the explanation, Bucket. I hear you. I also play a fair share of money lines and like you, share the belief there are situations in which NFL teasers make sense, particularly when they are correlated or when you can take a number across three key numbers. I've not tried your strategy of tying teasers to parlays. I'd like to know more about that.

When you have a solid play, I'd love to hear about it. I'm already making notes on your plays next week. But more to your point, this is a wagering section, even if this thread is mostly straight plays. I'd love to read your thoughts in the section, even if they aren't part of the "contest".

I don't think I explained that very well. It's actually tying bought points, not a teaser.

For example, let's say you liked the Bears on Sunday night, but weren't happy about being on the wrong side of the 3. So, you buy the half point to move yourself from -3.5 to -3.0. In the process of doing so, you went from getting 91 cents on the dollar to 77 cents on the dollar (-110 vs -130). Now let's also suppose you felt strongly that the Eagles would take care of the Packers on MNF. If you bet your -130 Bears game parlayed with your Eagles ML, you're now getting the Bears at +102 instead of -130 (assuming the heavily favored Eagles handle their business at home against an inferior Packers team - no spread, just win baby).

Ohio State -6 1/2
Iowa gets some respect for being at home, but once again OSU is a machine. Troy Smith is a bonfied star and I can't wait for the Lions to draft Ted Ginn jr #1 overall in the draft next year. Watch for another #1 vs #2 when Mich takes on OSU in week 11.

Michigan -9 1/2

Michigan, Mike Hart and a dome. The Wolverines are going to run roughshod over the Gophers, every game is a statement game until they are ranked #1.

Vikings +1 1/2
Thats my Dick Jauron! The Vikings looked impressive against the Bears, look for Childress to re-establish the running game on Buffalo's better than average defense. This will be close but the Viqueens win it by a field goal and maintain pace with the 4-0 Chicago Bears.

Please join us, Nas. You can post up to one minute before kickoff of each of your games if you like.

How can I insult someone with the name Spinnin' Bucket ?

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

All lines from the Greek at 9:25 this morning

Michigan St -26 over Illinois

This line should be in the 30's but with Illinois getting in the backdoor last week against Iowa and Mich St falling apart late this line is less than 4TD's. I see Mich St up by at least 28 at the half in this one. Illinois went to Rutgers and didnt score a pt. Now they go to Mich St and I dont see their O doing much in this one.

Minnesota +10 over Michigan

Minnesota always plays tough in the dome and the last 3 games they have played against Michigan have been decided by 3pts. I think Minnesota gives Michigan all they want in this one at the Metrodome.

Washington +3.5 over Arizona

Over the last few years I have looked for Arizona being a favorite at home as they are 1-15 as a home favorite of 3 or more pts lately. Throw in that the dog is 10-2 last 12 in the series only helps. Washington got a big win against UCLA last week and I think they can continue their winning ways today against Arizona. Wouldnt be suprised to see Wash win this one SU.

edited my post NIU is giving, and I will give the points


so solly


sabu

Alright, I've been meaning to do this for the past three weeks. Here goes as i try to get caught up.

Michigan State -26 vs. Illinois
Illinois is so god awful it's ridiculous. MSU is going to come out pissed off and give their fans a big win at home. I think Coach Smith has to get a big win today to bring Spartan nation back to ease. Spartans 48-10

Northern Illinois -6.5 vs. Ball State
I really don't see this game even being close. The Huskies and Garrett Wolfe will run all over Ball State and never look back as they get up early 17-0 after the first quarter. Huskies win 41-20

Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. Houston
Rip on the Dolphins offense all you want, but their defense has been pretty damn good this year. They're on the field quite a bit through out every game they've played, yet manage to keep their flawed offense in it until the end. I've had the pleasure of seeing the Texans offensive line get destroyed in person this year and its a thing of beauty...when you're rooting for the other team. I say the Dolphins D scores a TD of their own and just like Mark Brunell last week, Daunte Culpepper gets a confidence builder he badly needs. Miami wins this one 30-10.

Three games to start with. Hopefully I'm doing this right.

I nominate myself for douchebag of the week

I don't know if it was this board or another gambling board I frequent, but I said a week ago after the ND game that the annual "bet against Michigan State" party has begun. THis is a team with a track record that when it loses a game in a shocking manner like it did last week, it simply cannot recover. Smith is obviously incapable of turning around the emotional wreck that his team has become. We've seen it in each of the last few years. I could not bring myself to back Ron Zook with any of your money, let alone my own today..so I did not play the Illini. But I will be going against MSU from here on. I believe if you automatically bet against MSU every single week from here on, (at least until the lines become absolutely ridiculous) you will make a profit.

Yeah, good call. I wonder if some Vegas book or web site offered a money line on that one. I'd imagine it would have been 20-1 or 25-1 on the Illinois vs Michigan State game today. I'll bet somebody cleaned up.