This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. A prize valued at over $100 will be given to the person with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to qualify for the prize.

Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

The board was 34-35-6 ATS this week, bringing the season total for the board to 140-141-13.


Player.........................This Week....................Overall.....................%

Not in the Biz....................3-0............................3-0......................100
Rocks and Blows...............3-2..........................13-5-1....................72
Hawkeye Vince.................4-3..........................14-8.......................64
the gooch........................2-1............................9-6........................60
Doug..............................3-0-1.........................6-4-2.....................60
Chus...............................4-4-2.......................10-8-2.....................56
sabu...............................0-0............................6-5-1.....................55
Coast..............................6-5..........................26-24-3...................52
donspiracy......................5-3..........................13-14-1....................48
Bud Dude........................1-4-1.......................12-15-1...................44
BD..................................0-0...........................2-3........................40
Good dolphin...................0-0.........................2-3...........................40
reents.............................2-5-1......................13-20-1....................39
Matt Murton’s Beard.........0-4-1.......................10-16-1...................38
Woodridge Ryan...............0-0.........................1-2..........................33
Mitch Cumstein.................1-4.........................3-8..........................27

woo yeah...
big rally for the doug man.
3-0-1 this week bitches!

_________________
@audioidkid

I am going to Las Vegas this weekend so any critiques would be appreciated:

Wake Forest +4 at NC State
Is there a less publicized 5-1 team in the nation than Wake Forest? The Deacons were on their way to 6-0 with a 17-3 lead against Clemson heading into the 4th quarter when the bottom dropped out. I assume this line reflects the general disbelief in WF coupled with the recognition that they let up 24 points in the 4th quarter at home. One thing you can be assured of is that NC State is not going to score 24 points in a quarter (nor the game for that matter). I see this one as a road upset for WF with the straight up win.

Auburn -2.5 against Florida
A great team coming off an uninspired loss against a weaker opponent. A good team coming off an emotional victory against a better opponent. Auburn took Arkansas lightly. You can bet they will come out on fire versus the Gators. It is tough to win on the road in the SEC yet Auburn does not even rate as a 3 point favorite here. Auburn will certainly play great D. I think they will run over Florida on O.

Ohio St -15.5 at Michigan State
Taking a page out of Coast's book of wagering thoughts. I think MSU is a beaten team. The home crowd will turn on them if they get down early, and I think they will get down early. That makes this effectively a neutral site. OSU will move the ball rather easily on a pourus MSU defense.

Texas Tech -8 at Colorado
If anyone should know how to stop Texas Tech's O it is Dan Hawkins. Unfortunately, his players would not know how to implement his plan. Colorado has been suprisingly bad this year against many weaker opponents. I see them pressing on O from the very beginning because they think they need to keep up with TT. Unfortunately for them, they have not yet learned Hawkins' offense. The result will be turnovers. TT likes nothing more than to get the ball back quickly after a score, and this will happen in Boulder.

Michigan -6.5 at Penn State
I have not seen all that much that I like about PSU this year. They fade late and give up a lot of yards on D. On O they cannot seem to score in the red zone. The home field is a nice thing for PSU young QB but it will not matter in this case. The Michigan D is just as good as the OSU D that gave PSU fits a couple of weeks ago. Michigan will be missing Manningham but have plenty of talent at WR in Breaston and a running game that will be able to grind this one out.

Georgia-Vandy under 38.5
The secret of the SEC this year is the outstanding D. Several teams are holding opponents under 10 ppg. I believe Georgia leads all of them allowing about 6. I don't see Vandy upsetting this streak. The only question is whether the Bulldogs will score 30. I don't think they will.

Buffalo +1 at Detroit
Contrary to last week's result, Buffalo is a good team. They are devoted to the run and have a player who can grind it out. Losman seems to be coming around a little and the Bills do have some nice receivers. Buffalo has a solid D that is good at stopping the run. Detroit has injuries everywhere and is one of those teams where the rumblings of change are beginning. The most injured area is the O line with Woody, Tucker and one other lineman possibly out. I think Detroit will control the Detroit O line and run to victory on O.

Philly-NO over 46
This one will be an offensive explosion. Philly seems to be a darling of the media this year. I heard raves about its defense last week...as it gave up 325 yards of O to Dallas. The Philly O has been the best in football so far and I don't think NO will be able to stop it. Alternatively NO has been playing well on O. Brees has receivers that he likes and a RB who can get the job done.

Chargers -10 at SF
LT has had several tough games in a row and he will be looking to get healthy against a giving SF defense. The only way SF keeps this close is if SD makes errors. Schottenheimer will not give Rivers a chance to make them. This one will be kept in the hands of LT and Turner for SD.

Great stuff Dolphin. Appreciate your takes on all these games. Enjoy Vegas! (How can one not?) My thoughts FWIW:

I also will be playing Wake. I also particularly like your Buffalo and Philly-NO over plays. I agree with most of your others, and will look hard at them. I do disagree on one of them. I will be playing Penn State. I'll post my writeup on that game tonight.

Saturday
Cal -7.5
After a bad loss to Tennessee, they are on a roll. The Bears are out to win the Pac 10, and should handle a lesser team in the Cougars.

Ohio St -14.5
Another bet against MSU. If OSU can get a lead early, the Spartans will quit, and the Buckeyes might win by 30.

Penn State +6.5
Michigan will be without Manningham, who has been huge. Michigan is the better team, but it is a night game at Happy Valley and Penn State wants to avenge their only loss last season.

Sunday
Philadelphia -3
If not for a 4th quarter collapse against the Giants, the Eagles would be undefeated. I think this number would be higher if not for the Monday night ass-whooping the Saints put on Atlanta two weeks ago.

Kansas City vs Pittsburgh over 36.5
Pittsburgh will finally get the offense on track this week. With the possibility of a defensive score by the Steelers or a Dante Hall runback, this number should go over easily.

Chicago -10.5
I know the Bears are a bad Monday night team historically, but I don't think that matters here. Bears are the best team in football, and Leinart will be wearing Alex Brown's ass for a hat by halftime.

Buffalo -1
The Lions are brutal and now they have injuries mounting. Buffalo is not as bad as they looked against the Bears.

Buffalo vs. Detroit over 39.5
Detroit can't stop anyone and as long as Kitna doesn't throw terrible interceptions late, they will score enough to push this one over.

San Diego -10
San Fran plays OK against mediocre teams like Arizona and the Raiders. This is a big step up in class. Rivers is playing like a top 5 pick, and with LT and Turner in the backfield, this will be a blowout.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Penn State +6.5 vs. Michigan
I'm posting one now because this line has already moved and I want to lock this in before it moves below 6...as I expect it will. If you are going to play this one, I'd play it early and buy the half to +7.

After backing Michigan a few times this season, I think this is a good spot to go against the Wolverines. First the fundamentals – PSU has been beaten by Ohio State and Notre Dame by a combined score of 69-23, but the yardage stats for those games were a much closer 650-631. PSU was in the OSU game until late in the fourth quarter and was beaten by a few big passing plays vs. ND. Penn State QB Morelli is starting to show that he might be a decent playmaker, throwing for 295 and 281 yds. the last two weeks (albeit against mediocre Northwestern and Minny defenses). Michigan is a nicely balanced offense, but their passing game will suffer somewhat with the loss of big play maker Manningham. With Manningham out, Michigan no longer has a decided advantage in playmakers, as PSU receivers Butler and Williams are capable of making big plays. Michigan still gets the edge with the run game and a slight edge on defense, but that’s why we’re getting seven points. But the edge isn’t 7 points in my mind. In fact my power ratings make this line 4. Penn State is a top 15 defense, has a decent running game and balanced offense. Situationally, this is a good spot to play PSU who is looking for revenge for their only loss last season. Michigan won last year on the last play of the game. And PSU does seem to take their game to a higher level when playing at home at night in big games. Ohio State was a victim last year and will attest to that. And finally, technically, this is a good spot to go against Michigan as road favorites. Laying points on the road has not been a profitable situation for Wolves backers. They are 1-1 in that role this year, bringing Lloyd Carr’s record as a road favorite to 16-26-1 ATS.

Here we go.

Missouri -2 vs Texas A&M- Missouri is one the undefeated teams in college football, nobody's talking about. They have a good quarterback and a good defense.

Florida+1 vs Auburn- Auburn is coming off a loss and Florida is ready to make the national title run right now.

Rams +3 vs Seahawks- The Seahawks are still without Alexander and I think if the Rams win this one, they know that they can challenge for the NFC West.

Saints +3.5 vs Eagles- I do believe in the Saints with their only loss is 3 to the Panthers and the Eagles have let teams stay around in the game for a while.

A crazy one here Dolphins +1 vs Jets- I like the way Harrington looked last week and a bad pass interference call gave the Patriots the touchdown to go up 20-10. The Jets don't have the Patriots D and the Dolphins have started to get it going, even though they have lost 2 straight.

Chiefs +7 vs Steelers- With the way the Chiefs are playing and Roethlisbereger not completely healthy, the Chiefs should keep this game close.

Bears -11 vs Cardinals- Not much to say here, but the Bears defense against a rookie quarterback, the Cardinals defense may slow down the Bears offense for a half, but that's about it, as the Bears go to 6-0.

Bears and Cardinals over 38- The Bears may do this themselves, but the Bears should get over 30 and just need one score from the Cardinals and that could be the tough one as Bears roll 35-7.

Boston College +3 vs. Va Tech- A big Thursday night game, the crowd will be going nuts and BC should be 5-0 right now, also their crappy kicker has been suspended. BC has already beaten Clemson at home they should eeasily take care of Va Tech.

Duke +23 vs. FSU- I like the home team giving 23 to an uninspired and under acheiving team. FSU will probably win the game but it shoukd be within two touchdowns.

Bengals -6 @ Tampa Bay- I like the Bengals coming off a bye week to take care of the Bucs. The Bucs are 0-4 and do not know what's going on right now. Their new QB has not seen a defense like the Bengals before.

Buffalo -1 @ Detroit- The Lions are the worst team in the NFL and Buffalo is not as bad as they looked against the Bears.

Baltimore -3 vs. Carolina- I still have faith in the Ravens as a contender in the AFC and the Panthers just look terrible.

Bears -10.5 @ Cards- I think this one is pretty self explanitory: Bears D-Line vs. Cards O-line, Cards inexperienced QB, Cards 29th worst against the pass.

Bears Cards under 38- I see the Bears holding the Cards to under 9 points and I doubt we see another 40 pt. performance by the offense.

_________________
"Do work, son" -Big Black

UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH -10

Pitt has scored a ton of points this year and C. Flordia has an awful pass defense that will get lit up. CF has been having a hard time scoring and Pitt is 4-1 against the spread.

CINCINNATI -6

Cinci is coming off a bye, after a bad loss and had plenty of time to rattle a new QB in Gradowski. TB defense has been awful and Cinci will run early and set up the big pass play.

BUFFALO VS. DETROIT OVER 39.5

Both teams have bad defenses, Buffalo will be able to light up an awful Lions secondary, while Detroit will score alot of points at home on turf. 5 of the last 6 have gone over for the Lions.

GIANTS VS. FALCONS UNDER 43

Atlanta will be tough at home running the ball being conservative and are only giving up 10 a game which will stifle a hot NYG offense. Falcons will have sucess running the ball and have gone under in 3 of 4 this year, and this matchup is usually a low scoring affair with the last 4 going under.

OAKLAND VS. DENVER UNDER 36

Denver will shine in prime time again. Oakland might get shut out, Plummer can take more risks in this game, but will still have to be conservative and will make a mistake or two turning the ball over.

BEARS -11

I should know better, but I cant help it. QB in his second start, without one of his prime targets, bad o-line and a dissapointing and pissed off RB. Bears defense has a feild day, whilke Offense will be able to run for 150+ yards and attack downfeild with the #1 O against the #25 D.

R&B, here's an interesting article on your Atlanta-Gints under play:
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles ... tid=27&t=1

Wake +4 @ NC State
I expect Wake to outrush NC State and dogs who outrush their favored opponents are a 70%+ play ATS. I also am quite willing to back Wake coach Grobe, whose teams often overachieve and play above their talent, and fade NC State coach Amato, whose teams often underachieve. Here, we also get NC State coming off a big win over FSU. NCS has seemingly had FSU’s number, beating FSU outright now three straight years and four of the last six. NCS seemingly celebrates those big wins over FSU because in each of the three years in which NC State beat FSU and had a conference game the following week, they lost outright the following week. On the other hand, Wake has seemingly had NC State’s number. Under Grobe, Wake is 4-1 ATS vs. State. The Deacons are coming off their first loss of the season, but this same group of kids (19 returning starters for Wake) were 3-1 ATS off a straight-up ACC loss last year. Finally, I believe there is value in this number as I make this line 2. This number has dropped one point, but it hasn’t crossed a key number, so it’s still playable at 4.

Tonight

Air Force vs. Colorado St. under 45.5
Two very stingy defenses here. CSU allows 15 points per game, Air Force allows 21. With the possibility of bad weather, Colorado St will run, run, run, and keep this under.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

NY Jets -1

Miami's offensive line is in shambles and their quarterback is Joey friggin Harrington, who is 4-24 as a starter on the road. The Jets are no world beaters, but at home they should be able to move ball enough to win.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Wisconsin -8
The Badgers at Camp Randall against a below average team in the Minnesota Gophers. Make no mistakes this is a huge rivarly and this game is basically the Gophers post-season. Stocco and the upstart freshman PJ Hill decimate the Gophers in Madison and walk off the field with Paul Bunyon's axe.

Ohio St. -14
Michigan St. still hasn't recovered from that embarassment against Notre Dame and an even bigger embarassment against U of I. Look for them to come out flat, whatever confidence they built as a team at the beginning of the season is long gone. OSU in a rout

Michigan -5 1/2
Michigan has been damn impressive this season, I know this line has been moving south with the news about Manningham but the Wolverines have too many weapons for the Penn st. team who couldn't muster much again Notre Dame. Hart will have a big game, Michigan by 2 scores.

Buffalo -1
Detroit is an awful, awful, awful team. Buffalo looked understandably awful against the best team in the league last week. JP Losman had been steadily improving since he ran into a road block better known as da bears. Look for him to bounce back, Lee Evans will thrash Detroit's secondary, Willis Mcgehee will be loving all the holes that weren't there last week. Buffalo's defense, when they are done licking their wounds, will look to make a statement against Jon Kitna and who knows what RB detroit will use. It won't matter. Buffalo by a TD.

Oakland +15
This is alot of lumber to lay at the feet of (es i still think he's bad) Jake 'the snake' Plummer. Oakland is the worst team in the NFL but they still have some talent on the team and I don't see Denver lighting up the scoreboard through the air. tatum Bell will have a solid game, but I ain't taking a Denver team that's overated every since their average performance on Monday Night Football.

Kent State -7. -115 vs. Toledo
Last week, Toledo started a freshman, Tyler Opelt, at QB replacing injured QB Cochran, and he was respectable, throwing for 288 yards on 51 attempts. But he didn’t have much help. Toledo is a very young team with quite a few freshmen getting significant minutes. And the inexperience showed as the Rockets imploded from poor pass coverage, inconsistent tackling, dropped passes, costly turnovers and penalties. Kent State, on the other hand, has been doing most everything right. After a season-opening beating at the hands of Minnesota and a 3 point loss at Army, Kent has rattled off four straight wins. Most impressive was a three TD win vs. defending MAC champ Akron two weeks ago. This veteran Kent team has put it together on both sides of the ball. The Flashes are 2nd in the Mac in total defense (Toledo is 7th) and 4th in the league in total offense (Toledo is 6th). Kent State is a very balanced offense with 1,050 yards running and 1,140 yds. passing on the season to date. Toledo lives by the pass, gaining 1,326 of its 2,077 total yards through the air (65%). Though Toledo lives by the pass, they are actually last in the conference in Passing Efficiency with a measly 5.4 yards per attempt. Kent State on the other hand, is 2nd in the conference with a respectable 8.9 ypa. Kent State is also more productive running the ball, is better at stopping the run and has a positive true rushing yardage of 4.16 gained vs. 3.8 ypr allowed. Toledo has a negative true rushing yardage of 3.8 yards per rush gained and 4.0 ypr allowed. So to recap this play, there are several factors here supporting Kent State. They are the hot team, the more veteran team, playing with confidence and momentum, with a much more balanced and productive offense, and a better defense, laying just a TD at home against a young team making a lot of mistakes. I make this number 8.5, so I’m confident I’m not overpaying here.

Thursday night:

Temple @ Clemson -44
Probably not a lot of discussion here. Clemson's 3rd team might score at will versus them. With years like this, who would want to coach at Temple?


Saturday:
South Florida -3 @ UNC

The Fire John Bunting.com website is live. UNC has been terrible this year, losing to every D1 team they've played. USF is built on a tough D and should get out of Chapel Hill with an ugly win.

Rutgers +2.5 @ Navy

Rutgers can stop the run, giving up about 50 yards a game. Navy is a strong team, but will have trouble if Rutgers stops the triple option early. Should be a good game.

Hawaii -4 @ Fresno State
Fresno State ht rock bottom last week dumping one to the hapless Utah State Aggies. Hawaii comes in hot, beating Nevada on the island last week and the offense is on fire.

Nebraska -8.5 @ Kansas State
Both teams are playing good ball now, but Nebraska is playing good ball on both sides of the ball.

Thanks Coast. And for all the sites you reccomended a while back, i went to re-visit some and like them more now, kind of overwhelming at first for a novice.

“Red zone efficiency may be the single most underrated statistic when it comes to betting,” says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky. “When you’re betting under on totals you want field goals and not touchdowns and obviously a team that can’t convert in the red zone is going to score a lot of field goals.”


That guy is OTM. I dont wanna over think this game like I did by not betting the under in the NE-MIA game last week. I'm still worried that the game will go over if the Giants get up 10-0 or 14-0 becuase that will force Vick to be passer and that means alot of 3 and outs. However, Giants could get conservative as well with a lead on the road. I still think the Falcons are underated and that the Giants are overrated, and I really like that Falcon D, maybe second best in the NFC.

Dallas -13 They are going to be pissed off after last week, show no mercy in the early 4th quarter when they could/should put subs in after rag arm boy has his bounce back game against one of the four worst teams in the league

Detroit +1 Two mediocre teams, Detroit, although pathetic, will get fired up by their over achieving Tiger counterparts and get their first win

Jets -2.5 After losing 41-0 on the road they will bounce back strong against one of the many mediocre teams in the NFL. This will be an exciting 10-6 thriller

Denver +15 Raiders are absolutely wretched, even Jake the Snake will shine and Tatum Bell will do his best swiss cheese production impersonation rushing for 170 yds and 2 tds.

Chicago -10.5 Matt Leinhert against the Bears d-fense. r u kidding me??

Fresno State +4 vs. Hawaii
I believe Fresno wins this outright and I will be betting the moneyline here, along with the points. Had this game been played a month ago, the line would have been Fresno -6 or more. This opened at Hawaii -5, meaning there has been an 11 point move in the power ratings of these teams in five weeks. Why? Because Fresno has mailed a few in the last few weeks. This is a veteran Fresno team that was good enough to hang with USC last year, and was good enough this year to play Oregon tough. But Fresno has shared a malady with Michigan State...they lose a tough game or a game they shouldn't and they go in the tank. They did it last year after the USC loss. This year, they lost a few weeks ago and then went in the tank last week and lost outright as 27 point chalk at Utah State. This line is a strong reaction to that game. I don't believe recent results reflect the kind of talent is on the field here. Hawaii is a nice team with a nice passing offense, but Fresno can be a smashmouth football team...the kind that has given Hawaii fits because their defense is on the field so much. I give a definite edge to Fresno in talent between these teams. They are playing at home. They are getting points and are coming off the most embarassing loss in years. The question is whether Fresno will show up this week. I think they will.

OSU -14 vs. MSU
The BCS comes out Sunday. OSU will be focused vs. a team in "diss"-ary.

Auburn +2 vs. Fla
Auburn rec'd their wake up call last week. The Gators will pay this week.

Philly -3/12 vs. NO
McNabb playing like a man who has something to prove and wants to maintain his lead over Rex. I feel the N.O. emotion will begin to run out this week.

The problem with all of these picks is that Im in love with road chalk this week, which is a sure way to send your ass to the poor house.


Utah -3 @ Wyoming- Utah should handle the Cowboy here, Utah comes in having dropped 1 to UCLA and 1 to Boise State. Wyoming beat New Mexico and Utah State. Utah D has held opposition to 14.3 points per game, thats where Im hanging my hat on in this game. Utah D versus the O of Wyoming, advantage Utah. Utah has put up 27.3 points per game on O; however, Wyoming leads the conference in D with least yards given up per game which is a potential problem. Most people would place the value on this game at a pick em, But Im feeling nutty here and will try the Utes

Zona -3 1/2 @ Stanford- Here's the battle of the pathetics of the Pac 10. I remain having a shred of confidence in Zona, even though they have done bupkus to instill any confidence in their underperforming offense. In the last 4 Stanford scored 10, 0, 10 and 9 points respectively. zona has scored 10, 7 and 3 points but put up 28 against Stephen Austin (what an accomplishment that is). Stanford's D surrenders about 36 points a game and is dead last versus the run, Zona only averages 54 yards per game on the ground, that will change this Saturday. Zona salvages a modicum of respect and tries to justify the most improved team ink that it got before we began this season.


Ohio State -14 @ Mich State U. - see everything else written on the subject of MSU being a ship without a rudder. OSU is hotter than a urinary tract infection and I look to OSU in a laugher, but the backdoor cover could rear its ugly head if the buckeye doesnt go into the 4th by 28 points up (because it will be substitution time in the 4th)


Cal -8 1/2 @ Wash State- Cal clips along putting up about 40 points a game and holding opponents to about 20. Look for the same here and look for the Cal D to keep the Bears BCS bowl dreams alive. Write off the TEN game this far out into the season, Cal has turned the corner, so give em a look. Wash state has a high impact O, but they havent seen anything like the Cal D yet they got 14 points against Auburn but put up 22 versus USC in a game where USC D looked pretty tepid. Cal wont be tepid and should take it by at least 10 as they continue their quest for a BCS game and get ready for the big Nov 18 contest against the Trojan. Cal hasnt won in Pullman since 79...well you can kiss that stat goodbye after this one. Bears looked great v. Oregon as well there kiddies.

I agree with you Sabu that Ohio State and Cal are probably the right sides, but I rarely do road favorites. They DID send me to the poor house many years ago and I have tried to learn from my mistakes. I call road favorites the "fool's gold" of sports betting. They can win occasionally, of course...but a steady diet will drain your bankroll faster than you can say "Lloyd Carr".

-------
Just wanted to say thanks to all you guys for all your thoughts. A year ago, this thread was dead. This year, it's alive every week with a lot of good stuff. We have a lot of talented guys here with great thoughts. If people are paying attention, there is a lot of solid information here every week. I appreciate it. Let's all have a winning weekend

Week 7 Early Risers

Syracuse +25 1/2 @ West Virginia (50 1/2)

Orangemen so bad they must not be cheating anymore.
Both running games get off, WV piles on. Over
'Cuse 14 WV 37

Purdue -7 1/2 @ Northwestern (51)

Another ugly game for the outmatched Wildcats.
Only one team scores points today. Under.
Purdue 8 Northwestern 0

Minnesota @ Wisconson -8 1/2 (51 1/2)

Paul Bunyun's Axe stays with the Badgers.
Gophers score 20 and lose. Under.
Minnesota 20 Wisconson 29

Ohio St. -14 @ Michigan St. (51 1/2)

Please visit firejohnlsmith.com. Thank you.
Luckeyes roll up on goaline early and often. Under.
Luckeyes 38 Michigan St. 10

Iowa St. @ Oklahoma -19 1/2 (49 1/2)

Landstealers finally get a home game to get fat on.
Garbage time Cyclone TD's tip the total. Over.
Iowa St. 17 Oklahoma 33

courtesy pinnaclesports.com

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

I'm an idiot, Oklahomas point total should be 43 not 33.

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Alabama -16 over Missisip

Home team has covered last 6 in this series. First road game for Miss in 3 weeks, they lost their first 2 road games by 27 to Mizzou and by 17 to Kentucky. With Miss getting their first win last week we get some decent value here as I think Bama gets a 20+ pt win today.

LSU -26.5 over Kentucky

LSU lost last week at the swamp, but they fumbled at the Flor 1 and threw a late interception into the end zone so game should have been closer. LSU back home where they have won 3 games by 42 pts and the other win was by 30. Kentucky played tough in their 7 point loss to South Carolina last week and I dont know if they will have enough to keep LSU from a 30pt win today.

A new addition for all yall

SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY!!!!! (Always wanted to say that like the guy from the old drag racing radio commercials)

Boise @ New Mexico State Over 62.5- I know you have read Coast's interesting views into what is up in NM Aggieland in regards to the latest developments in not being able to stop anyone on Defense. Frankly, Boise could rack up 50 points by itself on the Aggie D. The Paul Westhead of college football plays the race you to 40 points game and loses bad versus the boys of the smurf turf. this could be an arena ball game here. Over Over Over

Hope you all hit the 5 team parlay. WINNER WINNER F'N FILET MIGNON DINNER

NFL Plays

Tennessee +10.5 @ Washington AND Over 40.5
Washington's defense has been shredded by Dallas, Jacksonville and the Giants...and while Tennessee isn't an offensive juggernaut, we may see Vince Young have a big game here. The Skins are simply a very, very soft favorite to be laying double digits. They are 21st overall in defense and 28th against the pass. Washington is the worst team in the NFC East, which makes them a mediocre team in my world. And when mediocre teams are laying double digits, I'm there to scoop up the overlay. I do think the Skins will have some success running the ball against the Tit's league-worst run defense. But the Tits showed some life and some growth last week vs. Indy and Vince Young might just revert to his playmaking prowess against this Skins D. I think both teams will get to 20 points, which is why I like the over here. But it will take more than Portis and Santana Moss to cover this double digit nut. It will take a good defense too. And that's something the Skins don't have.

Denver -14 vs. Oakland
Oakland is the worst team in the NFL and the suspension of Jerry Porter just adds to the dysfunction that is the Raidahs. Mike Shanahan still enjoys beating the Raiders' brains out more than any other team. The Broncos run game seemed to kick into gear against the Ravens. Look for Bell to run roughshod and maybe even Jake the Snake will make some plays against a lethargic Raiders defense. This might be the only time I lay doubles in the NFL all year, but I actually believe there is value in this number. By my power ratings, I make this line 20. The Broncos seem to be clicking into gear, they are motivated to deliver a beating and the Raiders are dogs with fleas.

Cincinnati-Tampa Bay OVER 44
Both of these teams are really struggling to stop the run. Cincinnati is 27th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 144 ypg, while Tampa Bay is 2nd to last at 177 ypg. Both teams have good running games with Rudi Johnson and Carnell Williams, and I expect both teams to have success against these two weak run defenses. In addition, both teams have playmakers at QB. Carson Palmer is one of the top playmakers in the league, while Bruce Gradkowski was quite impressive last week in his first NFL start. He threw several balls downfield and didn’t simply dink and dunk as Chris Simms was so wont to do. Cincinnati has a defense that does make big plays at times and creates turnovers, but also gives up a lot of yards. That’s the kind of defense that is good for an over...it gives up points and creates point-scoring opportunities for its offense.

Buffalo-Detroit UNDER 40.5
The Bills are playing Jauron football...decent defense, pedestrian offense. The Lions can't seem to get out of their own way on offense, and the injuries in their offensive line (and maybe the Roy WIlliams injury) won't help them at all. They are last in the league in rushing and I expect that with the injuries and the Bills defense, Kevin Jones wll be running into walls all day. But on the other side we have TJ Losman. The next game Losman wins with his arm will be the first. McGahee is a quality back to be sure, but with the Lions having little to fear with the Bills passing game, they will likely load up to stop the run. First one to 17 wins. This game will provide a good opportunity to take a three hour nap. Don't think you'll miss anything. My main fear in this play is very bad turnovers deep in their own end and the defenses scoring points. But with both teams likely playing very conservatively and playing the field position game all day, hopefully the stupid stuff will be kept to a minimum.

Dallas -12.5 over Houston

Dallas cannot afford another loss right now especially against this Houston team who finally got their 1st win in their last game against a poor Miami team after being blown out in their 1st 3 games. I see Dallas scoring plenty in this one and they should be able to get the money. I see Dallas 31-13

San Diego[/b][/b] -9.5 over San Fran

San Diego should still be undefeated if not for a poor 2nd half in Baltimore. San Fran has played decent ball this year but something tells me that San Diego will be a little too much for them today. Came across this stat also this week. SU winner in SD games is 60-3 ATS!!! I will say SD 31-17

New York Giants +3

Their D stepped up last week against Washington. Plenty of balance on offense. I still don't trust Vick enough to lay points to a team like this.

Tennessee +12.5

Washington's D has been carved up like a Thanksgiving day turkey over the last three weeks. I am not very impressed with the Titans, but this is too many points for Washington to cover.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way