New England -1 @ Minnesota
I think there’s value in this line based on Minny’s win at Seattle last week and a few other Minny games that had misleading outcomes. First, I don’t put a lot of stock in that Seattle win for a few reasons. This is clearly not the same Seattle team without Hutchinson and Alexander...and Walter Jones looks like he’s lost most of what made him great. And Hasselbeck got hurt early in that game. I also see some giving Minny credit for playing the Bears tough. Ok some credit there, but that Bears team that Sunday in Minny was not the efficient destruction machine it was yesterday. Minny also beat Carolina, but let’s not forget they were down late and the Panthers did an absolutely stupid thing on a kick return late and threw the ball away. Bottom line..Minny has been a very fortunate beneficiary of circumstances so far. I said before the season I didn’t think Minny was going to win as many as 8 games. I may be wrong about that, as they won two games already I didn’t expect. But I think the perception of this team is a bit ahead of the reality.
The reality tonight is that New England is one of the three best teams in the AFC. There are some great matchups, but I give the overall edge to the Pats. Patriots defense vs. Brad Johnson? Pressure, pressure, pressure. Johnson is 38 years old. He can be had because he's pretty much a statue in the pocket. The Minny running game and Chester Taylor vs. the Pats defense? Taylor leads the Vikes in rushing (2nd in the league) and receptions. Look for the Pats to have a spy on him all night. Tom Brady vs. the Vikings defense? The Vikes have 15 sacks so far, but only 6 have come from their defensive ends, which is where Brady has felt the most pressure this year. If they don't get pressure on Brady, the Vikes' secondary can be had and Brady is just the guy to do it. Pats running game vs. the Vikings top ranked rush defense? Edge Vikings. But success in the Pats passing game should cause Vikes to get sucked in to play action.
It should be a very competitive game, but the Vikes haven't shown me they're ready to move into the upper tier of NFL teams yet. If they win tonight, then I'll be be much closer to being convinced. BUt I don't think that's gonna happen.
|