Irish Boy wrote:
And the SEC is a lock to expand to 16 teams in 1990. Florida State is definitely going to join. No doubt about it.
Nearly everything that has been reported has been uncorroborated innuendo. Absolutely nothing it "ironclad", and no one knows what is going to happen.
I have to disagree.
I think the most likely path is one of three options, with the first two options the most likely at this point:
1. Notre Dame feels pressured and inevitably decides that joining the Big Ten is going to occur one way or another, and a 12 team Big Ten makes more sense than a 14 or 16 team Big Ten for them due to the reduced number of teams to share revenue with, so they join under the contingency that the Big Ten would not expand beyond 12 teams. Without this option, there is no way the Big Ten stops at adding just one extra team. If they can’t have Notre Dame initially, it will be a multi-team expansion to fill the revenue gap that Notre Dame would’ve created by penetrating various new markets, such as New York, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
2. The Big Ten is likely to expand to an even numbered Conference to allow for proper divisional breakout, which means expansion by an even number such as 2 or 4 teams is also unlikely, as divisional alignment becomes a problem. Therefore, Missouri and Rutgers climb to the top of the most likely list, since both seem to be drooling at getting into the Big Ten and seeing their revenues for their programs increase by hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade. Therefore a #3 would have to break into the discussion to fill this out to an even number. There is a lot of talk yesterday on College Football Live that Nebraska is very open to the option of moving outside of the Big 12 for various reasons. They are apparently more open to it than I had previously thought they would be. That would allow them to still schedule Oklahoma annually in non-conference play to retain the rivalry and dramatically increase the revenue they are losing to Texas every year for facility and program improvement. They become a stronger option than previously believed. If they are the 14th team, that would reduce the Big 12 to a 10 team Conference and could have them looking outside for additional filler schools. Notre Dame also enters the picture again in this scenario, since if Nebraska backs out, the Big Ten is likely to turn to Syracuse or Pitt, both in the Big East, which would tear that Conference apart. There is talk the Big East is trying to be proactive and offering other schools to join, perhaps on a contingency basis, like Maryland from the ACC. But the general feeling around College Football is that expansion is coming and the result will be a shakeup of some degree.
3. The most unlikely scenario in the possible scenario category is the Big 10 going all out and adding 5 teams. If that happened, the Mega Conference would likely pull in Notre Dame, Nebraska, Missouri, Rutgers, and a wild card like a Pitt, Maryland, or Syracuse. The implications to this scenario would devastate College Football. The Big East and the Big 12 would be left shopping for schools, and the PAC-10, SEC, and ACC would likely tear apart the Big East and trying to keep pace. Perhaps the remaining Big 12 merges with the PAC 10 to form a new South-West Mega Conference, or the Mountain West is completely torn apart lending 2-4 schools each to the Big 12 and PAC-10.
I would rate the likelihood as such for announcement in the next 12 months and expansion w/in 24-36 months:
0 team expansion = 1%
1 team expansion = 25%
2 team expansion = 3%
3 team expansion = 50%
4 team expansion = 3%
5 team expansion = 15%
6+ team expansion = 3%
Or revised high to low in terms of probability:
3 team expansion = 50%
1 team expansion = 25%
5 team expansion = 15%
2, 4, or 6+ team expansion = 3% each
No expansion = 1%
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
since you're known for holding your tongue 
