Bowling Green +8
BG and Akron are similar in talent and the line is inflated due to BG losing to Temple. BG has a shot at the MAC championship game and should at least hang around in this one.

San Diego State +15
Wyoming may be looking ahead to next week's tilt with BYU. SDSU is the superior rushing team. Subscribing to Coast's stats on the better rushing team, i will take more than 2 TD's.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Louisville pick -105
I may be all alone with the home team again tonight as I was last Thursday. Louie has the better balanced O and better D playing at home. West Virginia has the better rushing attack and they are technically the underdog, but this line says West Virginia would be a 6-7 point favorite at home. The juice in poppa john's pizza box tonight should be the most electric thing in Louisville since Doug Buffone. I think this line ought to be Louie -2.5, so will take the value and the preferred matchup as I find it.

Week 10 Thursday Night Special

West Virginia +1 @ Louisville (56)

Both Mountianeers ponies run wild.
No RB for Louisville means they can't hang. Over.
West Virginia 33 Louisville 24

Coast please put me down for the NFL picks I made earlier in the thread.

1. Baltimore -3 Palmer and Co. will play better on the road?

2. Giants -13 Sage Rosenfels leads the charge into the swamp!

3. Denver +2 Not expecting Broncos to start a losing streak.

4. Indy@NE (47) 5 TD's + 4 FG's. Peyton and Brady = Firepower. Take the over.

5.* Indy@NE The 1st half total is 24 @ pinnaclesports.com. Madden's head will explode if 9 FG's are kicked. Over.[/code]

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Indiana +6-1/2 @ Minnesota
Soft favorites are teams with losing records that are favored. Going against soft favorites has always been a staple of my handicapping because bad teams have enough trouble winning games outright, let alone covering spreads. Here I’m going against soft favorite Minnesota (0-5 in the Big Ten;3-6 overall) who hasn’t yet won or covered a single game in the Big Ten, and coached by Glen Mason, one of the most underachieving coaches in the country. And, I’m getting nearly a touchdown with THE turnaround team in the Big Ten, the IU Hoosiers. What IU is doing this year may not quite be defined as “remarkable”, but it is as good a one-season turnaround (so far) as we’ve seen in the Big Ten since Gary Barnett took Northwestern to the Rose Bowl 10 years ago. Picked by most “experts” to occupy the basement of the conference, IU has won three of their last four games straight up, all as underdogs, losing only to #1 Ohio State in the last month. In my opinion, the linesmakers still have not caught up to how this team is playing. Young QB Lewis is making outstanding reads (10 TDs, 4 INTs) and WR Hardy could be first team all-conference this year. Except for their two games against Ohio State and (top 2- ranked) Wisconsin, the Hoosiers have scored 30 points or more in each of their Big Ten games. Minnesota is its usual run-oriented self and is getting inconsistent play from QB Ryan Cupito. In fact, the Gophers have only scored 15 ppg. in Big Ten games...and they’re coming off a 44-0 beating to Ohio state that has left the team physically, if not emotionally beaten. IU is coming off a big win last week over Michigan State, in which the Lewis to Hardy combination hit for 4 TDs. I’d give the emotional edge to IU, along with the line value on an undervalued Hoosiers team. Combine that with a soft favorite in Minny, who is overvalued (as evidenced by the fact the Gophers have not covered yet in a conference game at 0-5 ATS), and we have a play on the up and coming Hoosiers.

NE -3

Colts run D sucks, NE had a great gameplan against Vikings opening with 4 wideouts early and often, probably to offset the Colts gameplan, either way it was brilliant. No way Indi wins in Denver and then in Foxboro, I actually like NE by double digits.

Virginia Tech -2-1/2 @ Miami
I played the Hokies last week as home dogs to ACC leader Clemson and was rewarded with a Hokies team that found their mojo, particularly in the running game. They now are laying wood at Miami, mainly because IMO this Miami team is done. The loss last week to Ga. Tech just about took away whatever was left of this Miami season. Larry Coker now is, no question, a dead man walking. Teams in this situation (see Michigan State) very, very rarely get their act together emotionally. This Miami team simply isn't very good. They have lost to every ACC team with a winning record they've played. The only team with a winning record they've beaten was a mediocre Houston team by 1 point at home. I backed Miami in that game, figuring it was their chance to find their mojo. They didn't. They never have. Hell, two weeks ago they barely beat a bad Duke team. I could point to the fundamentals...that Va Tech has their running game in high gear, that Va Tech is the best defense in the conference, that Miami has struggled to move the ball and score points all year, that Beamer is a good coach and Coker isn't. But I think the real factor in this one is motivation and emotion. VT has it and Miami doesn't.

Vince, Love the Hayden Fry "scratch where it itches" quote. I remember in the early Fry years, his weekly coaches show was titled "Scratch where it itches."

Fry wasn't/isn't much of a golfer. One of my favorite Fry quotes was this one. "Show me a coach who is a good golfer and I'll show you a guy that I will beat on the football field."

Thanks Coast - needed something new to keep it fresh.

West Virginia did everything they could to lose that game. Short punt return, fumble return for a TD. They put up a good 500+ yards of O and lost.

Friday Night

Army +5 v. AF- My guts tell me to take the home dog here, Bobby Ross has the Knight going into 3 straight losses with AF coming in. However, when you play for a service academy all you have is the CIC Trophy. We are multiple weeks from the Army squad that surprised Kent State. Losing to Tulane 28-42 is all you have to know about where this Army team is. Air Force has to take this and hope for an Army upset to take the CIC trophy. AF has respectible wins over Wyoming, New Mexico, and CSU. Its obvious that some of my go to cover teams out west are down this year (SD State (all hype not much go), CSU (traditional cover team, reloading and not very talented), Air Force (not that great as opposed to the teams of years past). AF gives the ball to almost everyone on the squad on the ground (38 total completions on the year, and 11 people that have carried the ball this year). AF avg 21 points per game, Army gives up 22. In terms of stats this is a dead heat, so going on value alone, Ill take Ross and the Black Knights (dont go crazy on this, a little taste). AF should be in it, but with a statistical dead heat, take the home team and the 5

Pitts -4' @ U of South Fla- I cant believe this, im saying take a Wannie team as road chalk. Palko is clicking and the week off will help the panther get its collective manure together after being beat by 10 by Rutgers. I like Pitt by a TD in this one.

Navy -12 @ Duke- Navy has good old fashion guts, and guts is enough. Duke....well Duke is Duke (0-8 this year). Another road chalk pick for a Navy team that is going to move themselves to a respectable bowl bid.

Oklahoma -2' @ Texas A&M- see my previous posts on how the loss of Adrian Peterson will not kill Sooner. Ok D versus a team that should have been killed by Missou (if you watched that one on the tube, you rediscovered drinking) I like it at less than 3

Notre Dame -25 v. North Carolina- ND and the rotund Weiss get to show off for the cameras and have a scrimmage against a definately outclassed NC team. NDs problem has been the inability of them to deliver the kill shot on the teams that they are supposed to kill (see UCLA for a paltry display by the ND squad on a team that ND should have rolled). NC is an outclassed team, unmotivated, and playing out the string for a coach that is on a scalding hot seat. This is the week that ND delivers the promised blow out. ND has to impress the voters and Weiss knows that squeaking wins out against tepid opposition is a sure fire way to move down the rankings and put you on the outside of the BCS picture looking in. ND smokes them.

Wash +16' @ Oregon- another game with a line too high involving Washington. Oregon should win, but by 10 to 14 points. Look to Wash. D and the QB situation, Wash is in a must win here, and make it respectable.

Auburn -30' v. Ark State- another blow out for the boys. Ark State could not score versus Fla Atlantic. Auburn needs opposition like this and a game like this to energize the Tiger for the next 2 v. Georgia and Bama. Dont go nuts here, but take Aurburn.

Army +5 vs. Air Force AND Army-Air Force UNDER 47-1/2
I like Sabu's Army pick. I've been thinking on that myself and what the hey, decided to play it myself for part of the usual unit. I'm anxious to see the new kid (Carson Williams) at QB for Army. He's done some good things in the 1-1/2 games he's played. He is a wild card in this one. Not sure AF is ready for him. He was recruited by some BCS schools and by all accounts isn't your ordinary service academy talent. He's young though, so prolly not a difference-maker yet. And Ross says the Cadets are going to run the ball more tonight and not rely on his arm so much as they did last week. Army also playing better run D these days. Looks like a ground war where the defenses rule. Home dog in a low-scoring game. Keep those caissons rolling along....

Here we go for Saturday:

Michigan State -2.5 vs Purdue- Purdue has played poorly the last couple weeks and maybe with the coach being gone at the end of the season, Sparty will play better.

Indiana +5.5 vs Minnesota- Minnesota has played bad most of the season and Indiana has a chance to play in a bowl game and that should make this one a close one and heck Indiana may win.

Oklahoma -2.5 vs Texas A&M- I was impressed with Oklahoma last week and they should have a repeat performance and the only game I seen the Aggies play was a loss to Texas Tech.

Tennesee +5 vs LSU- I think LSU wins but 5 points is a little high, especially with the way Tennesee been playing lately. Tennesee has brought the offense this year and this should be a good game with a close finish.

Arkanasas -2.5 vs South Carolina- Arkansas is probably 2 years away from doing major things and this is a game SOuth Carolina would win, but I think Arkansas keeps it going with Mcfaddedn's running.

Missouri +5 vs Nebraska- Both teams coming off losses and Missouri rarely wins at Nebraska. THe winner of this game has a good chance to go to the Big 12 title game. The Tigers were playing really well before last week's debacle and I think their the team that responds more quickly.

My guess for the Best game of the Day Penn State+7 vs Wisconsin- Penn State is starting to run the ball better and the defense is playing top notch again. Wisconsin coming off a scare against Illinois, The Nittany Lions should keep this one close and may pull off the upset.

Miami +2.5 vs Va. Tech- I know Va. TEch looked good against Clemson, but this is must win for Miami and at Miami, they need to play old Hurricane football and like last year against Va. TEch and run the Hokies over. If the Canes get consistency from the offense, this has blowout all over it.

One More Arizona State +1.5 vs Oregon State- Arizona State was down a couple of weeks ago, now there back to the top and Oregon State may not have come down after the win last week.

lines from the greek at 9:45 this morning

Miss St +14.5 over Alabama

The dog has covered every game these 2 have played in this year with the exception of the 2 games Alabama played against Fla Int and La onroe. Miss St plays Bama tough here as they are 8-1 ATS the last 9 here. Visitor has also covered last 5 between these two. I will take the 14.5 in this one.

Colorado -3.5 over Kan St

I am taking a 1-8 team over a 5-4 team in this one. Before Colorado went on the road and lost their last two they had showed some life at home scoring 30+ pts in going 1-1. Today they play a team playing their 3rd road game of the year. They lost their first 2 road games by scores of 17-3 and 41-21 to Baylor and Mizzou. Colorado has also dominated as a home fav in this series going 10-1 ATS. I think Colorado gets their 2nd win of the year in this one.

Nebraska -4.5 over Mizzou

Nebraska was rolling until they lost that heartbreaker to Texas a couple weeks ago and then suffered the letdown last week at Ok St. Now they are back home and I just dont see them losing this one at home today. Mizzou was also rolling until that loss last week against Oklahoma. Im looking for Mizzou to suffer the same letdown this week that Nebraska suffered last week. Home team has covered last four in this series and I expect that to continue today.

MissSt/Ala I meant to write the road team has covered every game, not the dog. Dont want to give out wrong info.

Week 10 Part II Big Cold Windbag

NW @ Iowa -20 1/2 (46)

Wildcats won't score many points.
Iowa O runs up the board. Over
NW 13 Iowa 34

Purdue +3 @ Mich St. (58)

Some seasons are already over.
After home shutout Purdue racks big. Under.
Purdue 27 Mich St. 28

Penn St. @ Wisc. -6 1/2 (37)

Badgers run game alive and well.
Joe Pa only has depends in his bag of tricks. Under.
Penn St. 10 Wisc. 24

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

The Purdue/ Mich. St. total is 58. Thank you.

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Week 10 Part III Afternoon Delight

LSU -5 @ Tenn (43 1/2)

Ainge health v. Tigers D looks good to me.
Another strong SEC slobberknocker. Under.
LSU 24 Tenn. 18

North Carolina @ Notre Dame -24 1/2 (53)

More hype for the Irish. They roll.
Lots of action and big plays. Over.
UNC 14 ND 40

Ohio St. -24 1/2 @ Illinois (48)

Illini will get the ball alot. From kickoffs.
Ginn and Pittman v. yuck. I say this total is low. Over.
Luckeys 38 U of I 13

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

The Ohio St. / Illinois total is 48. Thank you.

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

BC -3.5 @ Wake Forest- BC basically had a week off to prepare for WF by playing Buffalo. Their QB had a week off and BC needs to come out and destroy WF. This is the biggest game of the year for BC and they should win this game by a TD.

Bears -13.5- The Bears have destroyed all of the weak teams that they have beaten. I see the bears winning by at least 21 points against a weak Miami team.

Dallas -3 @ Washington- The Redskins are a terrible football team and the cowboys are adjusted to to Romo. I think that the cowboys will win by a touchdown.

Broncos +3 @ Steelers- The broncos will rebound after their tough loss to the colts. The steelers are lost right now, they lost to the Raiders last week.

_________________
"Do work, son" -Big Black

I should have played that Wisconsin giving 7 to PSU, gotta go back to the gut and I figure one of these has to cover if not both


GIANTS -13

Texans D is awful and the least they have given up on the road is 28. NYG dominate them in every major statictacal category and 5-1 ATS in last 6. Texans 0-5 SU up on the road in last 5.

CHARGERS 12.5

Chargers averaging 31 per game and have been great at home covering each game. Cleveland D is awful and they almost blew a big one last week, the O has a hard time scoring and that wont change against solid SD Defense, plus to many Cleveland injuries.

Cleveland +12.5
The Browns have played better as of late, hanging with Denver and beating the Jets. Merriman will begin serving his suspension this week, which will hurt their D. If SD gets an early lead, I expect a huge dose of "Marty ball", which will let Cleveland hang around.

Tennessee +9.5
The Titans are playing better lately also. Back to back wins, compared with a Jeckyll and Hyde team in the Jags. With a quarterback controversy in full swing in Jacksonville, it might be enough of a distraction to let the Titans hang around.

Washington +3
Not a huge fan of the Skins, but there is value in taking a home dog, especially in a big rivarly game.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

jeez..some upsets today and some blowouts. .i think i've had as many blowout losses last night and today as I've had all year. good thing i wasn't around to watch them go up in flames so quickly. good news is it costs the same to lose by 1 or lose by 30.....

Coast! The EF Hutton comment put me in a tailspin 0-5!

sorry vince. Didn't mean to jinx ya. I'll keep my admiration of your work to myself. After starting 0-3 today, maybe I should keep my picks to myself too.

New England -3 vs. Indianapolis
I was wrong to go against Indy on the road last week at Denver as Indy QB Manning went nuts and got me 75 fantasy points. Oops wrong analysis. He might...well I hope...get me 75 again today. But no matter how many completions and yards Goober might get, I don't think it will be enough. Indy's defense..particularly its run defense...simply isn't good enough to sustain this team against the best teams. Can they win shootouts every week against good teams? Especially one that has Tom Brady? Hasn't been enough most years, as Colts with Manning are 3-10 lifetime vs. New England.

Let's get some wins.

Early Games

Chiefs +2.5 vs Rams- The Chiefs are starting to play better, Huard running the offense well and even though it's a road game, it's in the same state. The Chiefs should play well with the running of Larry Johnson and take this one.

Ravens -3 vs Bengals- With Billick calling the plays and the Ravens defense, Bengals coming off a home loss, I see the Ravens taking this one with a late touchdwon to seal it 27-17.

Cowboys -3 vs Redskins-I liked the way Romo played last week, Redskins D not looking good this season and maybe no Moss for the Skin, Boys run away with this one.

Saints +1 vs Buccanneers- This should be a close game just like the first one they played, but the Saints offense started to open it up last week and should get a last second field goal to win.

Late Game

Broncos +3 vs Steelers- Big Ben should be benched and because he's playing the Broncos D should take care of him and the Broncos will be able to run the ball and use to set up some big pass plays.

Good luck to everybody's picks this week!

lines from the greek at 10:10 this morning

Under 37.5 Mia/Chi

Bears have gone over in every home game this year. I think that ends today. I dont think anyone will score more than 10pts on the Bears at home this year and something tells me Miami's D will play a decent game today. I think Robbie Gould will kick 3-4 FG's today and I see a Bears win by about 23-6.

Over 48 KC/Stl

High total in this one but for good reason. Both teams have been lighting it up the last couple weeks and with this game being played indoors today I see both teams being able to get 3TD's and 1FG each which will get this one over.

Cincy +3 over Baltimore

Bengals a game back of the Ravens in the division so this should be a good one today. Cincy came up a little short last week but that runs the visitor in Cincy games to 23-5 ATS. Batltimore's D has given up some points the last few weeks and I think Cincy has the O to get enough today for the SU victory.

Jacksonville -9.5 over Tenn

Jacksonville got back on track at Philly last week while Tenn got their 2nd straight win over Houston. Jacksonville has been excellent at home this year covering all 3 games. I see Jax wearing down Tenn in this one in the 2nd half to get a double digit victory. SU winner in this series is 20-2 ATS.

Detroit +5 over Atlanta

Hopefully taking this bad Lion team will not backfire on me today. I think Atlanta has a little bit of a letdown today after back to back tough wins against Pitt and Cincy. With the extra week Detroit should be able to do some damage today on offense. Detroit covered their previous 2 home games as a dog and think they should get the money today in a game I think will go down to the wire.

Buffalo -3-1/2 vs. Green Bay
The Jaurons have the better D (GB is #30)...andbesides the Fantasy Football gods will cause Nas' Brett Favre to throw picks, cough up the ball and be terribly inept. And while I'm no JPL fan, Packers are the worst pass defense in the league and Losman can be effective against bad defenses.

Miami +14 @ Bears (-115 on Pinnacle pull down menu)
Could be a defensive tussle with #1 Bears and #4 Fins D, and Dolphins are coming in with a little chip on their shoulder after hearing Bears talk about next week's Giants game. I'm not in Chicago, but all I'm hearing in national interviews is how the Bears are focused on the Giants next week. That may not be nearly enough to matter today in getting the Fins to play at a higher level, but Fins don't have to win this game to cover.....just hang around for a long time. I still believe Bears' secondary and quick passing games can be had if opposing Qbs' can have a few seconds of protection. Don't know if that will be the case today as Harrington hasn't been known to have big games vs. Bear. If Bears are talking about the Giants, are they looking past this one? Don't know, but even the slightest bit of look-ahead in the NFL will get you beat.

KC +3 @ St. Louis
Looks like Herm is starting to have an effect on KC defense as the Chief have quietly moved into the top ten in overall D. And for all the praise we're hearing about St. Louis being better, they are still bad on D...ranking 27th in D. Chiefs also the better run game with LJ. Better rushing team and D getting points? Take.

Also liked Wash + vs. Cowboy, but with Moss confirmed out today, I'll pass that one.

Indianapolis +3 I am going to base this on last years ass whoopin, neither team is significantly better or worse so when all things even go with the most recent result

Green Bay +3 Both of these teams SUCK, Green Bay is getting on a little bit of a role and has won on the road already this year so I will take the points. Monday night John "Brett Favre is Brett Favre"

San Fran +5 I am not drinking the Vikings kool-aid. San Fran exposes the same weaknesses as NE did just to a lesser extent but enough to win by a TD in an ugly game

St Louis -2 Wow unless Buger gets hurt, which is highly likely that FF P@#$sy, St louis way too much fire power at home for this spread. LJ will go off but look for a 42-31 type score

Dolphins +13.5 I am taking one for the team. Look at my YTD record, this should surely cinch a Bears 42-3 blowout.

line from the greek at 2:25 this afternoon

San Fran +4 over Minny

Both teams got blitzed last week. Minny on a short week travels to the West Coast. This has usually been a bad spot for Minny, 6-19 ATS as a road fav on grass and 0-5 ATS as a road fav of 4+ pts. San Fran D isnt the best but I dont think Minny has the offense to take advantage. I think Gore will have a 100+ yd day today. Should go down to the wire and a SU SF win wouldnt suprise me.

Colts +3 vs Patriots- With Manning on fire right now, I think he slices up the Patriots D, and the COlts will find a way to stop the run in this game and should control Brady to get a late touchdown win.