Ohio State vs. Florida over 46
S. Mississippi -5-1/2

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

BD, by my count that is 6 in a row from your source. Keep that good shit coming. Does he have that analysis for the last three bowls as well?

He probably will, but he doesn't usually post until the day of the game. I'll keep posting them. He is like the rest of us - he does lose games, but I've been following his NFL/College picks for the past couple of years, and he wins a lot more than he loses.

5 of 6 actually. They got 'hooked' in the Wake game (taking Wake +10.5)

yeah, that is correct, I felt that one!

Kansas City Chiefs +7 (10 Units)


This is it. The Kansas City Chiefs were given a second chance at NFL life as they somehow got into the playoffs last weekend when all hope looked lost coming into their final game against the Jaguars. What both teams didn't know in that game is that Denver was goingt to lose later that afternoon so the party celebrations were held off until the later hours of the night for the Chiefs. Doesn't really matter because in the end, they made it to the playoffs. It had been quite some time since the Chiefs had made anyone money, probably since Trent Green had been out. Well Kansas City ended the year with a 2-0 ATS bang beating both the Raiders and Jaguars and looking good doing so. The key to this game and to covering these seven points, is going to be to keep Peyton Manning and his offense right off that field because we all know that Indy's passing game versus KC's defense will equal into some quick scores for the home team. My only concern with Green being back is that the offense has scored 20+ points in only 2 of 7 games since his return while Damon Huard led this team to 5 games of 20+ points. Green will start this game but I don't mind if Huard comes in at any point in time. The Chiefs come into this game averaging 20.7 points per game on the year. They have scored that many points by averaging 321.4 total yards per game on 5.3 yards per play this season. Indianapolis is allowing 22.5 points per game this season and they have done so by also allowing 332.3 total yards per game on 5.7 yards per play. On the ground is where the Chiefs will win or lose this game. RB Larry Johnson is the #2 running back in the AFC and he rushed for 1789 yards this season and 17 touchdowns. As we all know, Indianapolis has the worst run defense in the NFL so if Johnson can have a decent game, the Chiefs will keep this one close. The Chiefs average more than 30:00 minutes of time possession per game this season which is going to be crucial in this game. In the air, the Chiefs QB's have completed 60.4% of their passes this year for 6.7 yards per pass attempt which could be good because the Colts are weak against the underneath pass. Indianapolis is allowing opponents to complete a whopping 64.2% of their passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They have only 26 sacks on the year so the fact that Johnson can run the ball well in this game will determine how many times Freeney can put pressure on Green. The Chiefs are converting 40.6% of their 3rd down chances this season which is great news considering that Indianapolis was almost dead last on 3rd down defense allowing 47.1% to be completed against them. Another key to this game might be that Indianapolis has been horrendous all year on special teams defending punt and kickoff returns. Dante Hall is still one of the most dangerous guys in the league and if given the chance, will surely make the Colts pay. As long as Kansas City runs, runs and then runs some more, this game won't be easy for the Colts offense to get going and the Chiefs could easily come out with a win.


The Indianapolis Colts are always going to be Peyton Manning's team but can they finally get to the Super Bowl and get rid of all the 'Playoff Choker' labels? I doubt it. This is just not the same Indianapolis team as years past and that will be all that more evident this year. In the earlier part of the year, the Colts got off to their usual 9-0 start to the season which surprised nobody but it only took one game for everyone to realize that this Colts team is just not the same and that any given team on any given Sunday (in this case Saturday) is capable of beating them. Sure the Colts have all the fire power in the world to beat just about any team in the NFL but their defense has been to marginal keeping Manning and the offense off the field for extended periods of time this season. In their last five games of the season, Indianapolis lost to Houston, Jackonsville and Tennessee which clearly tells me once again that this is a new edition of the Colts team and the old one that only lost 2-3 games a year is now gone. Tony Dungy has been rumored to be on his way out and possibly back to the college game but we won't hear about that until the Colts get knocked out of the playoffs. Indianapolis is averaging 26.7 points per game this season and they have done it on 379.4 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Kansas City was supposed to have a much improved defense this season and I guess you can say they did as they allowed only 19.7 points per game this season and did so by allowing only 328.9 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Joseph Addai has been great as a rookie but he is just that...a rookie going up against Larry Johnson an experienced and proven veteran. The Colts average only 110.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry but how willing to stick to the rush are they? Kansas City is allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry this season. In the air, Manning is completing 65.0% of his passes this year for 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Kansas City have 32 sacks on the year and if they can get any kind of pressure on Manning, he's going to be in trouble here. However, Manning relies heavily on the big passing plays to Harrison and Wayne but outside of those two, there aren't many threats. KC is allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt in the air this season with 15 interceptions. Jared Allen and Tamba Hali are keys to this game with pressure on Manning and as long as Kansas City can keep this offense off the field and make some big plays when they are there, they should have no problems having a shot to win this game.


This reminds me of the Bengals-Colts Monday Night game a few weeks back when Indianapolis was able to demolish the Bengals. However, the Bengals had no running game to speak of in that game and Carson Palmer forced the issue. With the Chiefs struggling in the passing game, they will no doubt be forced to stay on the ground most of this game which is exactly what Indianapolis does not want. Everyone was on the OVER in the Bengals-Colts game much like they will probably be on the OVER in this game but I don't know why. I mean if Kansas City can keep this thing on the ground, get the early lead and keep running all afternoon long, the Colts won't have a chance to do much and as predicted this game will not see as much scoring as originally thought by many. The public perception of the Colt is still the same because of Peyton Manning but it seems like a lot of bettors are smartening up and siding with the right team here. All you need is that running game and the Colts are in trouble. I consider Larry Johnson as having more than a normal running game so let's see what the Chiefs can do.


Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.



Kansas City 24, Indianapolis 23

Dallas Cowboys +3 (50 Units)


The Dallas Cowboys, Bills Parcells, Tony Romo and Terell Ownes SHOW is in town and it's time for everyone to recognize a bad line by the oddsmakers. So has everyone given up on the Cowboys and on Tony Romo regardless of what he has done this season or what the Cowboys have done this season? That's fine because the fact that everyone is off the Cowboys bandwagon has me jumping right back on it. Yes the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games but it's a matter of sitting back, relaxing and getting a grip on things. For a very long time this season I had the Cowboys as the second best team in the NFL and a few games is not going to totally change that perception for me. I still strongly have faith in Tony Romo (even on the road) and I still have a lot of faith in Bill Parcells as a coach. I have been a lot more angry at play-calling by Mike Holmgren over the years than I have been with some Parcells play-calling. The offense is still a TOP 5 offense in the NFL and the defense, when it wants, can make some big enough plays to win games. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 26.6 points per game on the year and they have done so by averaging 360.8 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. Seattle's defense has been a big time disappointment most of the season as they have allowed 21.3 points per game on the year and have done it by also allowing 329.9 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Julius Jones did not run well on the road (3.7 yards per carry) but Marion Barber did averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 9 touchdowns. Seattle is allowing 126.8 rushing yards per game this year but they have done so by allowing a whopping 4.6 yards per carry and I would put the rock in the hands of Barber here. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 65.3% of his passes this season for 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The offensive line is not that powerful so Romo has to be quick in this game. However, the Seattle defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete 59.3% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Seattle has only 12 interceptions on the year so Romo can breathe a little easier but the key here will be to convert third downs as they have all season at a 48.8% rate. The Seahawks have very weak defense in the Red Zone and that's not good news because Romo can just toss the fade to Terrell Owens all day or pound the ball inside with Marion Barber for big yardage gains. As long as the Cowboys don't make mistakes here, there is no way they can lose this game.


The Seattle Seahawks are in the playoffs....really? Wow...never woulda thought that after seing them a few times on National TV and seeing how poorly they execute things both on offense and on defense. However, the Seahawks play in the NFC and several garbage NFC teams have somehow slipped into the playoffs and the Seahawks are the most noteable of those teams. Now I know Seattle looked good the last two games of the season as they lost to San Diego by 3 and then beat Tampa Bay in the final game of the year but did you know that those two games were probably the only time Seattle has looked half decent the last two months? Hasselbeck and Alexander missed half the season together and like I have mentioned several times, that can go a long way into messing up rythm and chemistry on a football team and I have yet to see Seattle get things together in important games. They lost to San Francisco on THURSDAY NIGHT football at home and faced some of the worst teams in the NFL in home games this year. The Seahawks have 5 wins at home this season and those came against Oakland, Green Bay, Arizona, NY Giants and Minnesota. Of those teams, how many made the playoffs? The Seahawks are averaging only 20.9 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging only 311.1 total yards per game on 5.0 yards per play this season. On the ground, Shaun Alexander is averaging 89.6 rushing yards per game and all but he is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry this season and has lost three fumbles. Dallas has been solid against the run all season, allowing only 103.7 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. That should force the Seahawks to go with QB Matt Hasselbeck who has completed only 56.6% of his passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdowns and a whopping 15 interceptions. Dallas is allowing opponents to complete only 58.8% of their passes for only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Seattle's offensive line has allowed 48 sacks this year so I expect Demarcus Ware to have his way in this game and that alone is going to force Hasselbeck into some big time mistakes. The Cowboys also have 17 interceptions on the year and I would never trust a team like Seattle who have only converted 37.9% of their third downs this season. The Dallas defense has been heavily criticized the last two months but this is a great game for them to step up and show what they are all about.


What the hell is going on with these odds? Since when did Seattle become a better team than Dallas. I don't care if this game is played in Seattle, in Canada or in Dallas. The Cowboys are still a much better team than Seattle and the public have lost their minds if they think Seattle is going to come close to winning this game. I thought with a line like this, the public would be all over the Cowboys who apart from the last month or so, have shown signs of brilliance on offense and have sometimes shown signs of life on defense. Okay so the public money is once again even in this game but that only goes to show you how the NFL is so even these days and how many times are often favored when they have no business being favored. I have yet to see a good Seattle game where the offense has chemistry (since the injuries) and since I have not yet seen this, I would much rather bet on the team with the better offensive chemistry and that is the Dallas Cowboys. Also, how can you go against Terrell Owens in the playoffs? That's what the kid lives for.


Trend of the Game: Seattle is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus NFC opponents.



Dallas 31, Seattle 10

New England Patriots -9.5 (50 Units)


The New York Jets were at one point 2-3 on the season, just coming off a 41-0 loss in Jackonsville. However, the Jets had one of the weakest schedules I could ever imagine, playing against only three playoff teams this season. As a matter of fact, the Jets come into the playoffs with a whopping 10 wins. Those wins came against New England, Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami (twice), Detroit, Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota and Oakland. Are you kidding me? You have to have lost your mind to be on the Jets in this game because even though in terms of talent they might be on the same level as the Patriots, coaching can be disasterous for some teams and I think the Jets are going to be a perfect example of this. Mangini is coming off an outstanding season but he might come in here thinking he knows a little bit too much about how the Patriots run their offense. I was surprised to see that Chad Pennington is 2-0 as a starter in Wild Card games but that doesn't mean that he can walk into this place and have the same kind of success. Sure the Jets won here back in November but that was then and this is now. The Jets come into this game averaging 19.8 points per game on the road as they also averaged 306.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. New England's defense is allowing 16.1 points per home game this season but are allowing only 304.8 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Cedric Benson and Leon Washington have never played in a playoff game. The Jets average only 105.4 rushing yards per road game on 3.5 yards per carry. New England won't have any of that as they allow only 101.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry at home. In the air, QB Chad Pennington is completing 63.4% of his passes away from home for 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. However, New England's secondary is allowing only 57.4% of passes to be completed against them at home for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots should generate pressure on Pennington as they have 18 sacks at home this year. They also have 14 interceptions at home and if Pennington makes his usual road mistakes more than once, the lights will be out in a hurry in this game. Mike Nugent is definitely not one of the most reliable kickers around and nerves could be a factor for this kid. Kevin Barlow ran for 75 yards on 17 carries in the Jets win over the Pats in November which was the main reason the passing game was so hot. Barlow is out this time around and the Jets won't have any kind of success running the ball which is a must for them. As long as New England can contain Coles, Cotchery and McCareins, they should have no problems shutting down the Jets for the most part of this game. Don't worry Jets backers, you'll get some points but they won't be enough.


The New England Patriots are the New England Patriots and seeing that this is the playoffs, I could end my writeup right here and now and you would understand why I am on New England. Bill Bellichik and Tom Brady as a unit are 4-0 in Foxboro in the playoffs and I don't think that's about to change. In a game like this, as has been the case since Bellichik got here, you have to toss out all the stats and all the meetings between these two teams and concentrate on this one game and where things are heading in this game. What I mean by that is that as poorly as Tom Brady or the Patriots have played at times this year, this is what they live for and the playoffs are what they dream of. Sure one of their big time leaders Rodney Harrison is out for this game but that won't make a single difference because much like the Bears on defense, New England is all about compensation and not one player is considered better than all the others. The Patriots were a very impressive 10-6 ATS on the season. They lost only four games all season and won only two games where they didn't cover. Much like the Jets, the Patriots played against only one or two playoff bound teams but we already know how the Pats are at this time of the year. They come into this game averaging 20.6 points per game at home this season. They did that by averaging 321.9 total yards per home game on 4.9 yards per play. The Jets are allowing only 18.0 points per game on the road but some of the teams they have faced are just horrendous. They are allowing 333.8 total yards and 5.4 yards per play away from home. On the ground, RBs Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney rushed for almost 1600 combined yards. The Jets are horrendous against the run allowing 132.6 rushing yards per road game on 4.8 yards per carry but it's not like they can stack the box or anything because Tom Brady will pick them apart. Speaking of Brady, he is completing 61.4% of his passes at home this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt with 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. The Jets are allowing road opponents to complete only 56.5% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. However, the Jets rely heavily on their pass rush which could be non-existent here seeing that Brady has been sacked only 11 times at home. The Patriots are all about distribution and they have 11 players on their team who have caught 10+ passes on the year. That's incredible and that works in game like this. I have to admit that the Jets have a great 3rd down defense on the road but it doesn't concern me here because I expect the Pats to get their yards in chunks. A steady dose of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney should keep things honest for the Jets and although Brady is not one to go for the deep bomb, we might just see him try some long passes in the open field. I really think the Pats get things together just in time for a huge Divisional matchup next week. Bellichik is not about to lose to his sneaky little apprentice Mangini and not only will he beat him, he will embarass him.


There are two things you need to know about betting in the playoffs and those are that 1) you just don't go against Tom Brady in the playoffs SU or on the spread regardless of how much you like the other team and b) you don't go against New England at home in the playoffs. The public perception of the Patriots is not that great right now seeing the way they have played the past month or so but it's Bill Bellichik, it's the playoffs and it's time to get down to business. The Jets are not a playoff worthy team (much like the Chiefs weren't either and I learned it the hard way). Who the hell are the Jets to have anyone back them? Is this because they won here on November 11? I sure hope not because there is a huge difference between this game and that game. The only playoff team the Jets beat this year was the Patriots but like I said before, pretend that game never happened. All you need to know is that Tom Brady is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) at Foxboro in the playoffs and those four wins have come by an average of 13.75 points. Really not smart to against them here. Harrison might be out but the Patriots have never ever depended on one or two players and they truly are the best 'TEAM' team in the NFL.


Trend of the Game: New England is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff home games.



New England 34, NY Jets 14

New York Giants +7 (25 Units)


The New York Giants did what they had to do last Saturday Night and that was beat the Washington Redskins on the road to make it to the playoffs. For the first time in a long time, the New York media had something good to talk about. I know it's only one game but I think that one game is a blessing in disguise in the sense that a huge monkey was picked up and tossed off the shoulders of the Giants who had lost six of their seven games before that. Playing against the Eagles for the third time in one season is not as ideal as Tom Coughling would want it to be but seeing that the teams have split the series and both times the road team has won, I would say he has to be happy sitting where he sits. Coughling also has to like his chances in this game with his team being a very profitable 5-3 ATS on the road. Talent wise, there is no question in my mind that the Giants are as good as it gets when healthy. Injuries have certainly piled up for the Giants but they just keep on trucking on and I like some of the matchups here. Were you not impressed with their near win over the Colts? Or how about their road wins in Atlanta and Dallas? The Giants come into this game averaging 26.9 points per road game this season. They also averaged 336.1 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season. Philadelphia's defense took a few hits on the injury front this year but they allowed 18.9 points per home game on 331.6 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, RB Tiki Barber is still waving goodbye but he doesn't want to go out without a bang. He has rushed for 108.6 yards per road game this seaosn on 5.2 yards per carry and I don't see him having problems against a Philadelphia defense that has allowed 145.3 rushing yards per home game on 4.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Eli Manning has to have nightmares about the 23-0 loss to Carolina in last year's playoffs but playing outside of New York can only do him some good. He is completing 57.0% of his passes on the road this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Manning has thrown twice as many TD passes on the road as he has at home with all the pressures on him. Philly is allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt at home this season and will surely be looking to put pressure on Manning since that's how you beat him. That's why it's so important for Eli to make sure he moves quickly and always be aware of where Trent Cole might be. Eli has to forget about the long bomb passes in this game and concentrate more on hitting Jeremy Shockey on the short pass and Tiki Barber on the screen of dump pass. This is not going to be easy with the loud sounds of the home crowd but since Eli has been here twice already, I think he can get things done.


The Philadelphia Eagles, and this is getting old to here, had their season pretty much go down the guttern when Donovan McNabb got injured and was deemed out for the year but in came Jeff Garcia to the rescue and for the last time, Garcia is better suited to run this offense than McNabb. It's not a talent thing, it's more of a change of scenery thing for the Eagles and it has worked to perfection. However, I really hate betting on Garcia and the Eagles when they are favored because that's just not their thing. The Ealges had some big wins in terms of points at home this season but their home wins all came against non-playoff teams (apart from the Dallas win) and I am not impressed by a team that can beat Green Bay, Washington, Carolina and Atlanta on their home turf. The point here is that Phiadelphia is definitely fine without McNabb but they have not been impressive enough as favorites for me to back them. Since the injury to McNabb, the Eagles have been favored three times and are 0-2-1 ATS in those games. I know it was strategy to remove the starters after 6:00 minutes last week against the Falcons knowing they had already clinched, but how much momentum does that give this team? The Eagles come into this game averaging 23.8 points per home game and they have done that by averaging 380.5 total yards per game on 6.0 yards per play. The Giants have had their fair share of problems on defense but they allowed 24.1 points per game on the road for 388.1 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brian Westbrook averages only 60.7 rushing yards per home game this season. However, the Giants are allowing only 118.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry so don't expect too much out of the ground game. It's not like Andy Reid wants to run anyways. In the air, Garcia is completing only 52.7% of his passes at home this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. He has not thrown an interception at home this season and if he wants, can take advantage of the fact that the Giants allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt on the road. However, Garcia has not been hitting his receivers on the deep ball at home this year and if he makes a mistake or two, the Giants won't miss out on the interception (they have 12 on the road). The Giants secondary is going to have to make some plays in this game if they want a shot at the win. The best way to play good defense is to start with offense.


I don't know what Vegas was thinking with this line but I am glad that the public seems divided when it comes to taking sides here. I think the fact that the Eagles have been on the big time rise since Jeff Garcia took over and the fact that the Giants were in a huge freefall but still made the playoffs is the main reason for the line being where it is. I just don't understand how you can ignore the fact that Eli Manning is 2-0 as a starter in Philadelphia winning both times in overtime. What I saw in that last game of the season from the Giants was some big time passion. I know Jeff Garcia is experienced and is the better of the two quarterbacks on this team but destiny could come into play here and since the Giants are a very talented team, they are one like a raging fire needing one little spark to get them going. Last year the feel good story was all about Jerome Bettis and the Steelrs improbable run to the Super Bowl so could this be the year of Tiki Barber? Was that why he announced his retirement? Not quite but it would be a good story and like I said before, when the Giants play at the top of their game, they are almost unstoppable. I think the win last Saturday has this team ready to rumble in the playoffs. I'll take Eli to shock everyone.


Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.



NY Giants 24, Philadelphia 20

Ohio State -7 vs Florida- I think the Buckeyes were the best team going into the season and they have done nothing to prove me wrong and I know they've had a long layoff, but I think that may help them and I would go with Tressel right now in a big game.


On a personal note, this was a fun contest and hopefully there will be more like this in the future and I can't wait for next years, because after tommorow night's game, if you include all star games and Pro Bowl, there are only 12 games to go by my count.

BD's on a roll. 3 out of 4 for the playoffs. I took all of your plays.

I'll keep posting those plays, as soon I get them myself, which is usually a few hours before the game.

I don't always follow them, he liked KC, I was on Indy myself, but it's an excellent write-up, and great read.

There should be one for the Ohio St. and Florida game tomorrow.

That's how I read them. It gives me the data and I provide my own analysis. He did change my position on Dallas and I decided to take them hard.

Glad it's helping someone else besides myself make some $$$

Where is Coast with his thoughts? I cannot believe he doesn't have anything to say about the championship game.

By the way, the over has moved up to 47 and the spread has decreased to 7. I have a feeling that over goes up another half and the line solidifies at 7.

Here's my boy, and I am in total agreement with him tonight.
Buckeyes will roll!

Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (100 Units)


Why I am betting on this game: I am a sucker for placing very large wager in very large games. Sure it may not be smart but I like to make big deposits on big game days and I love partying most of the day with some buddies, getting drunk and then either watching my money grow on trees or watch my money go down in fire. That's the way betting works and that's the way I work. Sure it's not smart to have so much money riding on a big game like this one of the Super Bowl but I love the thrill of it and I love taking risks. I am not forcing anyone to do the same, just telling you why I am betting on this game. I have a love for the game of football and I get a huge adrenaline rush when I have a lot of money on a game. Also, this is one of the 2-3 games I said I would pound when the Bowl Season started. I like USC over Michigan as my only other 100 unit play and it hit with flying colors. So when the lines came out, I told myself I would be pounding a) USC and then b) Ohio State.

Why Ohio State -7 is different than USC -7 in 2005: Jim Tressel and Pete Caroll are quite possibly the two best coaches in college football right now when it comes to game preparations, in-game coaching, recruiting and just about everything else you need to do right to win football games. Everyone underestimated Pete Caroll in this year's Rose Bowl game and although he did not have the best team to work with this year, he made the best of it and quite easily beat Lloyd Carr who had his best team in years to work with. The mistake I made by going with USC -7 in last year's Rose Bowl Game for the National Title was that I bet against a) Vince Young, b) Mack Brown and c) the 2nd best team in the Country at the time. Florida is not the 2nd best team in the Country right now. The only reason USC, Texas or LSU (the only teams who would have a shot at beating Ohio State) are not in this game is because they all had 2+ losses but those losses came under bad circumstance and nonetheless, I feel that all three teams would be a much better match for the Buckeyes. I'll be up front and honest guys, Florida were very lucky to win some games this year and swing 2-3 points the other way in Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Florida State games and we aren't even talking about Florida in the TOP 10. What Ohio State game did they almost lose anyways? None. Ohio State won 12 games this season and won those games by 25.9 points per game. Florida won 12 games this season and they won those games by 17.5 points per game. Sounds close but Florida had UCF and some I-AA school on their schedule to boost numbers. All I am saying here is that Ohio State doesn't just win games, they win them convincingly (I still feel the Michigan win was a cover but oh well).

What do Auburn, South Carolina and Tennnessee have in common?: Well for starters, they are the only three teams who either beat or came within one or two points of beating the Gators. I am sure Jim Tressell and his coaching staff looked at the tapes for all three games trying to see how they can get an edge over the Gators coming into this game. For starters, Auburn was the only team that forced Florida into 3 turnovers (2 fumbles and 1 interception). I would consider that good news here since Ohio State is ranked #9 in the Country when it comes to turnover margin. Also, all three of these teams held Florida to a 3rd down conversion percentage of a combined 38% which is probably the key to winning big games. Any team that starts allowing 3rd down conversions on more than one drive is not going to win football games. Well Ohio State held their opponents to a 30.2% conversion rate on 3rd downs which is probably one of the main reasons they had so much success this year. The Gators will go for some big yardage plays in this game but they won't have as much success as one might think and their 3rd downs are going to be crucial.

What about Michigan almost beating Ohio State?: That never really happened because even though Ohio State went down early, Jim Tressell told his guys not to sweat things out for one minute and he told his guys that they were still in full control of this game. Consider this guys, had Michigan not scored that very late touchdown (we all know it wasn't pass interference) to make it a three point game, Ohio State would have won every single game this year by at least seven points. Not by two or three point but by seven points. That's really not an easy thing to do and I say that because when you are the #1 team in the Country, every single team is going to take their best shot at you and the Buckeyes didn't flinch once against any of their opponents this year. You can't ask for better than a 9-3 ATS record...you just can't. We all saw how garbage Michigan really is in their Rose Bowl game against USC but once again, I still consider Michigan a much better team than Florida and I don't have any doubts that the Wolverines could have beat Florida had they faced each other in an other Bowl Game. Michigan-Ohio State was also a big time conference rivalry (probably the biggest in the Country) while Florida-Ohio State is not a rivalry at all.

Won't Florida destroy OSU's secondary?: Maybe. However, you have to consider that as well as Chris Leak has played this year for the Gators, Leak has thrown 13 interceptions and it could be that one or two mistakes that cost him this game and this cover. James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins are going to be in no mood to hear about this kind of stuff seeing that they combined for 9 interceptions between the two and led a secondary that had 22 interceptions on the year. Can you find me another team in the Nation that had 12 different players with an interception in one season? Chad Henne had thrown only 7 interceptions coming into the Ohio State game and the only reason the Wolverines kept things close is because Henne did not make a single mistake. However, Leak has a bad habit of forcing some thrown and with 12 guys capable of making interceptions. As much success as Florida has had passing the ball this year, they only had 5 reliable receiving bodies while Michigan used 6 all season. After Dallas Baker, Andre Caldwell, Jemalle Cornelius, Percy Harvin and Cornelius Ingram...there are no other reliable options. Will those guys be enough to get it done? I don't think so. Ohio State are bigger playmakers on defense and that will be the difference in this game.

Why I really like Ohio State -7: The Florida Gators come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 398.1 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. That is the work of an offensive genius in Urban Meyer but Jim Tressel is the best coach Meyer has seen all year and maybe ever as a head coach. The Buckeyes are allowing only 10.4 points per game this season and allowing only 273.0 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, Florida is averaging 160.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry this season. Ohio State's defense is allowing only 93.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chris Leak is completing 62.9% of his passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdowns but 13 interceptions. I just can't get over those interceptions because he is prone to mistakes and mistakes kill in games like this. Ohio State also has one of the best LB corps in the Country and that is the leftovers from the AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter years. The Buckeyes have 37 sacks on the year and pressuring Leak is the key to this game because once again, he makes mistakes. If the Gators want to use Tim 'Superstar' Tebow they can, but it won't make a big difference and the Buckeyes will be ready.

Ohio State comes into this game averaging a whopping 36.3 points per game this season on 409.8 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. Jim Tressel has his best team ever with the Buckeyes, even better than the 2001-2002 National Championship team he had. Not only is his offense better this year than 2002 but his defense is also better and their playmaking ability will be the difference in this game. The Buckeyes average 180.1 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry and they have the ability to move things on the ground to the point where the passing attack becomes lethal. Sure Florida is allowing only 74.5 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry but Antonio Pittman Chris Wells are licking their chops at a shot for glory. In the air, QB and Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith is completing 67.0% of his passes this season for 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He has been sacked only 13 times all season which is very important to mention because both teams are going to come after the opposing QB and wichever team has the most success getting through the line, will win and cover this game. What I find hilarious is the people who say that Florida's offensive line is just as good as Ohio State's. Are you kiddding me? Ohio State has a TOP 5 caliber offensive line while I don't even rank those Florida guys in the TOP 30 offensive lines in the Country. The Buckeyes should have a lot of success getting to Leak in this game while the Gators will try to get to Smith but won't have any success and that is when he will find Teddy Ginn Jr. or Anthony Gonzalez on the deep pass.

Florida's secondary is actually better than Ohio State but they don't have as many interceptions and neither team has a TOP 10 secondary. That means that whichever team can put the most pressure on the opposing QB and relieve pressure on their secondary, will have no problems winning this game. Seeing that Vernon Gholston, Quinn Pitcock and Jay Richardson are all monsters off the line, I think Chris Leak can be harrassed enough times in this game that he we see him thrown that crucial interception late in the game that seals the deal for the Buckeyes.

Flava you're an idiot, Florida covers easy: Okay fine. You have your opinion, and I have mine. I was on USC last year while some of you were on Texas. However, I don't know how many times I have to say this. USC and Texas were the two best teams in the Country last year hands down. Although Ohio State and Florida are both ranked #1 and #2 in the Country right now, the Gators are not the second best team in the Country, nor are they the third best team nor are they the fourth best team in the Country. I know this is going to piss some of you Florida guys off but the Gators relied too heavily on luck this year to win games and although luck could be a factor in this game, Ohio State is just too much of a force winning their games by 24+ points. That's as incredible as it gets to not have one team come within a touchdown of beating you until Michigan did it in the last game of the year. What side of this would you rather be on anyways? Would you rather be on the Ohio State 9-3 ATS side or would you rather take the overrated Gators with their 4-8 ATS record? It's not a tough decision. Would you rather take Jim Tressel who has won a National Title before or would you rather take Urban Meyer who's biggest win as a head coach was against Houston Nutt and the Arkansas Razorbacks in the SEC Title Game? This isn't even close.

Final thoughts, you're either with me or you're not: Florida did everything right this year. However, if you look at the 6 games they played outside of Gainesville this year, their total margin of victory in those games was 3.5 points per game as they went 5-1 in those games. Ohio State played outside of Columbus 5 times going 5-0 in those games and winning those games by a 24 point margin. So you people who are taking Florida to win and/or cover this game are going to trust a team that could not pull away in big road games this season over a team that beat Texas by 17 points in only their first road game of the year and that followed that up by beating the living shit out of their other road opponents. That alone goes to show how well coached Ohio State is this season and how Jim Tressel has his players ready to play and ready to rumble in just about any part of the Country. We are in Arizona for this game and although there is a ton of hype around this game, I still feel that Ohio State should have been a 10 point favorite but the books didn't dare come out with a line like this. This game won't even be close and I just don't understand what Florida Gators fans and backers see in this team. You're either with me or against me in this one. Jim Tressel is a coach you can't count on when you need those extra few touchdowns to pull away at the end of a game. Troy Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. are two of the most exciting players in all of college football and both players are probably looking to finish their Ohio State careers with an impressive performance to up their NFL Draft stock. I'm sorry to all Florida backers who thought their team had a chance in this game. When was the last time a Florida team led by Chris Leak had so much hype around one game? They are not used to it while Troy Smith is used to all the hype you can get having been in games against Texas and Michigan this year. The Buckeyes are the class of the Nation and they'll win this game by 14+ points.

Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record.


Ohio State 34, Florida 14

Florida +7 over Ohio St

I think Florida will be able to do some things on offense but in the end Troy Smith makes the plays when needed. Ohio St 24-20

BD, is this guy using the word "unit" synonomously with "dollar"? 100 units = 100 percent of your bankroll.

I don't think so - I think he's using some percentage of his payroll, but from he's saying, it sounds like 100 units is a significant piece of $$$$.

Still a fan of "your guy" bd?

He sucked last night, but I was on Ohio St. already....He's still a great capper though, and I think he'll throw some college bball in once awhile.