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 Post subject: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:51 am 
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It looks like the government bailout of GM is going to end up being the right decision.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40212206/ns/business-autos

Not only will it probably not cost the government much or actually make them money but the total effect of not letting the American auto industry die will be worth more than anything else in this.

Good job Obama and Bush. Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:54 am 
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just because it's general motors doesn't mean it has to be in the general discussion.


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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:03 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

Yay Puns!


Youre right though, it ends up being a real good decision


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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:10 am 
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I'll tip my cap to Obama and his crew as well. In the back of my mind I thought
that it could work but was very skeptical. I certainly would have guessed that it
would have been after Obama was out of office before we would see this all pay
off. Saved a lot of jobs and GM seems to be on much more solid footing now.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:18 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
actually make them money


This is part of the problem I have with the whole thing.
What are you talking about? There is really no way that they don't at least break even on this. Maybe they only get 95% back but that's unlikely and would still be a major win.

Given the indirect benefits of actually having an American auto industry the bailout will be a great success.

The only way this bailout could have failed would have been if GM still went under. They didn't and won't.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:47 am 
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Buying Ford instead.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:49 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

Meh...

I had a 3 year old Chevy whose engine died last month. I took good care of that car too. In 3 years, I shouldn't have to replace the engine of a car that I bought brand new. That was the second Chevy that I had similar problems with too. Never again. I got a Honda now.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:52 am 
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The Original Kid Cairo wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

Meh...

I had a 3 year old Chevy whose engine died last month. I took good care of that car too. In 3 years, I shouldn't have to replace the engine of a car that I bought brand new. That was the second Chevy that I had similar problems with too. Never again. I got a Honda now.

I've had a ford mustang for 8 years.
110,000 miles.
Thing runs like a FUCKING CHAMP. It starts up and sounds like Hell is coming. When that thing goes, man IT GOES!
It's a piece of shit in the snow...
But the engine is bulletproof. I'd so far put that Ford 4.6 somewhere in the top 10 production engines.
Ford is really, really quite a different company than they were in the 90's and before.
My mechanic tells me he sees a lot better quality with Ford than almost any import.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:53 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
You missed my point. The problem is the government will profit off of this. They invested taxpayer money...so why do we have to buy back what we already own?
I still don't get your point. Are you mad that the government is getting a good deal or is it your point that the entire American auto industry should have been allowed to fold? The government sometimes has to step in and intervene in private affairs. They have no desire to be forever invested in GM as can be seen by the fact that they are selling off roughly 50% of it's stake right now and the only reason they aren't selling off everything is to not devalue the shares.
immessedup17 wrote:
I didn't realize I lived in Soviet Russia.
You have a very poor understanding of Soviet Russia if you think this is a valid comparison. You are aware what an IPO is and how the government is giving up control right? Soviet Russia took private property and businesses and murdered those who owned them. I guess this is the same though.
immessedup17 wrote:
Capitalist free-market economy, don't think the government should be running for-profit business.
They aren't! They stepped in at the request of the company for the good of the country. Now, they are doing whatever they can to get out. You seem to have a skewed understanding of the relationship between communism and capitalism.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:54 am 
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Darkside wrote:
The Original Kid Cairo wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

Meh...

I had a 3 year old Chevy whose engine died last month. I took good care of that car too. In 3 years, I shouldn't have to replace the engine of a car that I bought brand new. That was the second Chevy that I had similar problems with too. Never again. I got a Honda now.

I've had a ford mustang for 8 years.
110,000 miles.
Thing runs like a FUCKING CHAMP. It starts up and sounds like Hell is coming. When that thing goes, man IT GOES!
It's a piece of shit in the snow...
But the engine is bulletproof. I'd so far put that Ford 4.6 somewhere in the top 10 production engines.
Ford is really, really quite a different company than they were in the 90's and before.
My mechanic tells me he sees a lot better quality with Ford than almost any import.

That's interesting...

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:59 am 
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The Original Kid Cairo wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

Meh...

I had a 3 year old Chevy whose engine died last month. I took good care of that car too. In 3 years, I shouldn't have to replace the engine of a car that I bought brand new. That was the second Chevy that I had similar problems with too. Never again. I got a Honda now.

It's all luck of the draw. I have a 2002 GMC Envoy with 85K miles and have never had an engine issue. Just routine maintenance though I have to change a fan clutch now. My 2004 Honda Pilot has been the same.


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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:03 am 
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The Original Kid Cairo wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hopefully Americans who "will never buy American again" will give them a chance and they can become another major force in driving our economy.

Meh...

I had a 3 year old Chevy whose engine died last month. I took good care of that car too. In 3 years, I shouldn't have to replace the engine of a car that I bought brand new. That was the second Chevy that I had similar problems with too. Never again. I got a Honda now.
You gave them a try. That's all I ask. I'm not telling anyone to buy American. There is nothing wrong with buying a Honda.

When you are buying a new car in 5-10 years I think you should consider buying American again. Things change and sometimes you get unlucky with an individual car. Read reviews and make an educated decision. If your Honda works out well for you then go with that.

I have no problem with someone making an educated choice for themselves but the whole "I'll never buy an American car again" thing is very damaging to our country. Even if they made the greatest product in the world people would refuse to buy it because it's American. How can we expect to compete in the world economy if our own people refuse to even give them a chance.

Interestingly enough, GM's biggest growth and a place where they are making major progress in market share are the same Asian countries that American car companies supposedly can't compete with.

By the way, 6 GM cars in the family since 1990 and only minor issues for all of them before about 120,000 miles. Obviously, your mileage may vary. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:08 am 
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anyone who buys a new car is stupid anyway


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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:10 am 
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Bagels wrote:
anyone who buys a new car is stupid anyway

Thanks Cubbiegirl.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:13 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Bah, again - GM isn't the entire American auto industry. And yes, I'm against the government bailing out / owning companies, in any fashion. Government profits from this... "Oh, this owning business thing is working out pretty well for us, eh? Let's see if we can 'bailout' a few more..."
GM is not the entire American auto industry. However, GM folding would have caused a ripple effect that took out the other two car companies without a bailout. If the government doesn't bail out GM, Ford then asks for a bailout. If the government says no to them the auto industry is gone. That's not my opinion. That's what GM and Ford said.

This isn't the first government bailout. Most of them have been great deals for the government. They haven't decided to nationalize business yet. I don't see them doing it now. There is no reason to believe that the government wants to be like "Soviet Russia".

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:13 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
DS just got pretty excited there, eh?

Huh?

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:15 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Bagels wrote:
anyone who buys a new car is stupid anyway


:roll:

Anyone who buys anything new, that depreciates over time, is stupid then, eh? You should have bought a used 58" Mitsubishi projection TV...


i'm just now getting into color TV


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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:21 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
This isn't the first government bailout. Most of them have been great deals for the government. They haven't decided to nationalize business yet. I don't see them doing it now. There is no reason to believe that the government wants to be like "Soviet Russia".


With Ford, I was reading an editorial maybe about a week ago or such, that spoke about how they restructed their business while the market was still soaring earlier in the decade, because they foresaw issues that would occur later in the decade. If I can find the article, I will link it. It was a decent read...and it didn't quite say "Ford did what GM should have done but were too oblivious to do" but it had sort of that feel.
What is your point?

Ford is on record saying that they wouldn't need bailout money as long as GM stayed in business.

I have no desire to debate Ford vs. GM. GM was stronger three years ago. Ford is stronger now. Things may change in the future especially if you believe what Wall Street says about the GM IPO.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:32 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
My point is bad business decisions put GM in this position. It is ignorant to think that GM will be immune to these same bad business decisions going forward...therefore this bailout is a huge risk to the American economy. It is a gamble in every sense of the term.
They have already saved the American auto industry. That was a far bigger risk to the American economy.

The risk of this bailout has lost most of it's risk. The only risk was that GM went out of business. They didn't. By the time that GM has it's next chance to go out of business with "bad business decisions" the government will have sold every share, making most of it's money back or possibly even turning a profit, and also helping an economy that was in peril.
immessedup17 wrote:
If you think this will all go smoothly, these shares will be bought up quickly, GM will prosper again...good for you. Not everyone thinks that way.
I predict that all of the shares in the IPO are bought up quickly. Do you disagree?

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:38 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
I think a fair amount will be sold pretty quickly. To people who already own them. Then those shares will plummet, and everyone who invested will be out again.
I predict that the the share price will raise after the IPO and stay there for a long time. I will bump this in the future and we can see who was right. I'll admit I was wrong if the IPO price ends up being the high price that it ever gets. I expect you to do the same if it isn't.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:48 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
I think a fair amount will be sold pretty quickly. To people who already own them. Then those shares will plummet, and everyone who invested will be out again.
I predict that the the share price will raise after the IPO and stay there for a long time. I will bump this in the future and we can see who was right. I'll admit I was wrong if the IPO price ends up being the high price that it ever gets. I expect you to do the same if it isn't.


I didn't say shares wouldn't raise...they are already $3 over if I read correctly earlier. I feel that after the IPO is finished, we could see shares around $40 or higher. I do not think GM will be able to sell of the remaining shares about $50 like they hope to, and I don't see GM shares steadily rising in the future.
You said "those shares will plummet, and everyone who invested will be out again."

That can only mean that the share price will go below the IPO price. Now you are saying that you see the share price ending up $5 higher than the current price and you simply don't see it going to $50. That was some really quick backtracking.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:02 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Advice for you; every time you think I'm backtracking in an argument, re-read my post to understand what I'm saying. Or stop pretending to be stupid.

:lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:07 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Which is exactly what my posts said.
In #4, you mention "a few years time" which is not anywhere in your posts and in fact your quote indicates that shares will be sold quickly and then those will plummet, and everyone who invested will be out again.

Next time do me a favor and say what you actually "meant" to say. I'm too stupid to read your mind.

I will bump this thread when the share price approaches $50 a share. You bump it when it drops below $33. Deal?

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:27 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I predict that the the share price will raise after the IPO and stay there for a long time. I will bump this in the future and we can see who was right. I'll admit I was wrong if the IPO price ends up being the high price that it ever gets. I expect you to do the same if it isn't.


Say it like you mean it.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:30 am 
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I mentioned it before but GM's business model scares me.
I wouldn't invest MY dollars into it, and would avoid a MM that bought up it's shares as I am nearly convinced that the value of this company is going to drop.
Did they fix the problem with the cost of their labor?
Did they fix the problem with the cost of their pensions?
Did they fix the problem with the fact that no one is terribly interested in their cars?
Is the significant investment in the Volt going to work? Will the infrastructure problems with such a product offering be addressed? From my perspective, not anytime soon. The payoff is too far in the future in my opinion.
Are they going to grow revenue outside of the electric product line? I haven't seen anything particularly exciting.
Have they addressed their quality issues? I don't see them doing so. According to CR, only 69% of their models are average or better quality. Compared to 83% for chevy, Ford is even higher.
I don't like their business model, I don't like their liabilities, and I don't think they can really compete for the US shares as I believe that I see a PR problem when compared to Ford.
Short Term investment in GM, and I mean less than holdings of a month are probably going to net small risky gains.
I doubt this company really is going to succeed because from my perception I don't believe that they've adequately address the issues that brought them to the postition they were in.
in other words, we're a downturn away from them needing to go thru this all over again.
These are my opinions as a very green investor.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:31 am 
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My last post mentioned the Volt... I mean the EV that they're designing. Sorry.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:36 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Which is exactly what my posts said.
In #4, you mention "a few years time" which is not anywhere in your posts and in fact your quote indicates that shares will be sold quickly and then those will plummet, and everyone who invested will be out again.

Next time do me a favor and say what you actually "meant" to say. I'm too stupid to read your mind.

I will bump this thread when the share price approaches $50 a share. You bump it when it drops below $33. Deal?



UAW contracts come up next year for Ford and GM.

This is what concerns me. With the union holding a number of seats on GM's board, and the present POTUS owing his job to unions, who will have their interests served?

The shareholder? The union? And if the UAW memers at GM are handed an outrageous package by a board stacked with pro-union people, what will that do and how will it affect union members Ford?

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:46 am 
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Darkside wrote:
Did they fix the problem with the fact that no one is terribly interested in their cars?
GM sells the second most cars in the entire world. That isn't the problem.
Darkside wrote:
Have they addressed their quality issues? I don't see them doing so. According to CR, only 69% of their models are average or better quality. Compared to 83% for chevy, Ford is even higher.
I don't get this one. Chevy is part of GM.

Ford was supposedly dead in the water a few years ago. They've done a great turnaround. GM is doing the same.

The problem with GM was that it was a 100 year old company that for the first time in it's history ran into major infrastructure problems and it is improving them. I'm sure Microsoft will eventually run into a similar problem. It may happen in 50 or 60 years and it would be comparable to GM.

GM's biggest failing was being wrong about where the price of gasoline would go and the effect it would have on larger cars and then choosing the worst time since the Depression to be in bad financial shape. It's not like one of the biggest and most successful companies in American history all of a sudden lost all ability to compete. They've got problems. Some were quick fixes. Some will take longer.

As for your question on how they will increase revenue, go read about how they are growing in China. GM actually sells more cars in China now than they do here.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:54 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Darkside wrote:
Did they fix the problem with the fact that no one is terribly interested in their cars?
GM sells the second most cars in the entire world. That isn't the problem.
Darkside wrote:
Have they addressed their quality issues? I don't see them doing so. According to CR, only 69% of their models are average or better quality. Compared to 83% for chevy, Ford is even higher.
I don't get this one. Chevy is part of GM.

The point I was trying to make, which I did poorly, is that the quality vehicles are concentrated to a single product line, and that it still doesn't equal the quality of their competitors.

BR wrote:
GM sells the second most cars in the entire world. That isn't the problem.

Well then if that's true, which I don't doubt, that adds even more concern to the other issues I've shown. They sell plenty of cars but still lose gigantic volumes of money? Then their other issues, labor, employment costs, call quality, are certainly more amplified, because they're not able to do anything about those costs/issues, and if they're already selling a shitload of cars, then additional sales won't fix the revenue problems.

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 Post subject: Re: GM IPO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:01 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
Well then if that's true, which I don't doubt, that adds even more concern to the other issues I've shown. They sell plenty of cars but still lose gigantic volumes of money? Then their other issues, labor, employment costs, call quality, are certainly more amplified, because they're not able to do anything about those costs/issues, and if they're already selling a shitload of cars, then additional sales won't fix the revenue problems.
I agree. The margins were too low, especially with certain brands. That's why Pontiac is gone. They sold a lot of them but other brands had better profit margins. Part of the adjustment they made was to no longer produce cars like they are the biggest car company. They lost total volume which changed the calculations. When you are the biggest auto company in the world, and total worldwide car sales drop by 13% you are going to be in trouble. Toyota wasn't exactly doing great either with that.

The timing could have been worse. If we assume that what happened the past few years is a once in 70 years situation then GM should be fine. Obviously, if it becomes permanent GM is screwed but so is pretty much all the other companies in America that make anything.

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