It's cold so I read about baseball to get me to spring.

BA's most recent list of Cubs prospects


1. Archer
2. Jackson
3. McNutt
4. Lee
5. Vitters
6. Carpenter
7. Szczur
8. Simpson
9. Dolis
10. Guyer

Best Tools

Best Hitter for Average: D.J. LeMahieu
Best Power Hitter: Brett Jackson
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Matt Cerda
Fastest Baserunner: Matt Szczur
Best Athlete: Matt Szczur
Best Fastball: Chris Archer
Best Curveball: Trey McNutt
Best Slider: Chris Archer
Best Changeup: Chris Rusin
Best Control: Chris Rusin
Best Defensive Catcher: Robinson Chirinos
Best Defensive Infielder: Darwin Barney
Best Infield Arm: Junior Lake
Best Defensive Outfielder: Brandon Guyer
Best Outfield Arm: Kyler Burke

No mention of Junior Lake as well who is extremely young, but with quite a bit of upside in terms of power and glove.

_________________
Team Cutler.

Where's Shark?

_________________

Can't be a superstar and a prospect at the same time

_________________
Team Cutler.

Vitters keeps dropping down the list.

Simpson is #8?? He wasn't even on BA's top 200 prospects list in last years draft.

That's a pretty big drop after the first 3.

Best power hitter: Brett Jackson. I thought he's a future leadoff hitter?

LeMahieu is a guy a like but not sure if he has the glove to be an everyday player.

Yea, it is damning that Jackson is someone that the Cubs consider their best power hitting prospect. We are going to go have to go outside the organization to fill the holes at 1st and 3rd. Thankfully, we'll have some money coming off of our books soon and a pretty decent system if we need to make a deal

Disagree about the huge drop off after the first 3. Carpenter is a guy who will see time in the big leagues soon. Lee is under 20 and really has all the tools to develop into a really good 1/2 hitter. Vitters..well who the fuck knows anymore with him.

It's nice to have some younger players to be excited about

_________________
Team Cutler.

Vitters was a high school guy and is still young. He has time to take the next step in his development. Its too bad he is about 3 steps away from being a good mlb player.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

Trey McNutt

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Carpeneter has already had 2 Tommy John surgeries. Not sure how excited you can get about his long term future.

Hak-Ju Lee reminds me a lot of Chin-lung Hu. As a 19 yr old Hu was considered the future SS for the Dodgers but his game was exposed the higher he was promoted. Lee hasn't played a game above A ball and he has a long way to go before he makes it to the bigs. The 26 yr old Hu was just traded to the Mets for a minor league pitcher.

he is 21 now and has taken a step back each year.

He is our Jordan Denks, except I can admit this guy isnt good.

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Sure except for the fact that Vitters was a 1st rounder (3rd overall) while Danks was a 6th rounder (210th overall). It hurts a little more to fuckup the 3rd overall pick.

No doubt, hurts a ton more

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

By Jim Callis
January 4, 2011

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Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2011.

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After the Ricketts family completed its $845 million purchase of the Cubs and related assets in October 2009, the team unveiled its marketing campaign for 2010: "Year One."

Unfortunately, Year One was a lot like the previous 101. Chicago still is seeking its first World Series championship since 1908 and first appearance since 1945, and the big league club is trending in the wrong direction.

The Cubs won 97 games and a second straight National League Central title in 2008, then dropped to 83 victories in 2009 and 75 a year ago. That's not exactly what the Ricketts family thought it was getting with a $146.6 million Opening Day payroll that trailed only the Yankees and Red Sox among major league teams.

Chicago still is paying the price for overaggressive spending, first when it was rebuilding following a 96-loss season in 2006, then when it was trying to get over the hump after getting swept out of the playoffs the next two years. The Cubs signed Ryan Dempster, Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano to long-term deals totaling $404.5 million during that period, and they owe those five players $77.5 million for 2011 alone.

There were some silver linings during a disappointing 2010 season. Chicago promoted several prospects to Wrigley Field, and they acquitted themselves well. Starlin Castro nearly made the team out of spring training and came up for good May 7, homering in his first at-bat and driving in six runs in his first game. He became just the third shortstop age 20 or younger to hit .300 while qualifying for the batting title, joining Hall of Famer Arky Vaughan and Alex Rodriguez.

Andrew Cashner made tremendous progress as a starter in the minors before getting summoned to the big league bullpen at the end of May. He held his own with a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s slider, and he'll move into the rotation for 2011. Casey Coleman, Tyler Colvin and Scott Maine also made successful major league debuts and claimed jobs for the upcoming seasons. Chicago used 10 rookies in an Aug. 18 game against the Padres, including a major league-record six rookie pitchers.

The Cubs responded well to an unanticipated managerial change, playing their best ball after Lou Piniella abruptly resigned Aug. 23 to take care of his ailing mother. They went 51-74 under Piniella and 24-13 under former third-base coach Mike Quade. Quade instilled a greater sense of accountability, including benching Castro for two games for concentration lapses, and had "interim" removed from his job title after the season.

Life was better down on the farm than it was at Wrigley Field. Righthanders Chris Archer and Trey McNutt went a combined 25-4, while outfielder Brett Jackson pounded Double-A pitching in his first full pro season, establishing themselves as the best prospects in the system. Triple-A Iowa and Double-A Tennessee had the best regular-season records in their leagues, and both Class A affiliates had winning marks, with legitimate talent driving all those victories. One pro scout who covered the Cubs opined that they had more future big leaguers than any other organization.

1. Chris Archer, rhp Born: Sept. 26, 1988 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-3 • Wt: 180
Drafted: HS—Clayton, N.C., 2006 (5th round) • Signed by: Bob Mayer (Indians)
Background: Archer was an afterthought in the class of 2006 high school pitching prospects until he earned a last-minute invitation to the East Coast Professional Showcase the summer before his senior year. He showed a high-80s fastball and an athletic, projectable frame, piquing scouts' interest, then displayed a low-90s heater and sharp slider the following spring. The Indians selected him in the fifth round and signed him away from a Miami commitment for $161,000. Archer received a rude introduction to pro ball, going 1-10, 6.23 in Rookie leagues in his first two seasons and 4-8, 4.29 in low Class A in his third. While he's still not a finished product, he hasn't looked nearly as raw since coming to the Cubs along with relief prospects John Gaub and Jeff Stevens in the Mark DeRosa trade in December 2008. Archer made progress while repeating low Class A in 2009 and then took off last season, when he was Chicago's minor league pitcher of the year and led the system in wins (15), ERA (2.34) and strikeouts (149). Promoted to Double-A in July, he didn't allow an earned run in his first 31 1/3 innings at Tennessee. He continued to star after the season, striking out 10 in six scoreless innings against Cuba in the Pan American Games qualifying tournament in October. He was a no-brainer addition to Chicago's 40-man roster a month later.

Scouting Report: Now that Andrew Cashner has graduated to the big leagues, Archer has the best fastball and slider in the system. He operates from 92-95 mph and touches 97, and though he has an over-the-top delivery, his fastball has some run and sink to it. His slider sits in the mid-80s and peaks at 91 mph, giving him two plus-plus pitches when his command is at its best. His changeup has improved markedly since the trade, and while he throws it a bit hard at times, it should give him an effective third pitch. The Cubs love the way he competes, reaching back for extra velocity when he needs it and demonstrating an ability to win on days when he doesn't have his best stuff. Archer is athletic and has a fluid delivery, and all he has left to do is improve his consistency and command. Though he has cut his walk rate in each of his three years in full-season ball, he still gives up too many free passes. He works up in the strike zone too often, and his high arm slot doesn't afford him much deception, but his stuff is so good that he has surrendered just six homers in 251 innings as a Chicago farmhand.

The Future: Archer draws some Edwin Jackson comparisons, with scouts noting that Archer has better secondary pitches at the same age. He's ready for Triple-A Iowa at age 22 and not far off from the majors, especially if the Cubs wanted to promote him as a reliever like they did with Cashner last year. If Archer continues to progress as he has the last two years, he'll arrive in Wrigley Field around midseason. He projects as a frontline starter if he refines his command, and he easily has the stuff and poise to become a closer.

2010 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
Daytona (Hi A) 7 1 2.86 15 14 0 0 72 54 4 26 82 .202
\Tennessee (Hi A) 8 2 1.80 13 13 0 0 70 48 2 39 67 .198


2. Brett Jackson, of Born: Aug. 2, 1988 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-2 • Wt: 210
Drafted: California, 2009 (1st round) • Signed by: John Bartsch
Background: The Cubs rated Jackson's bat speed as the best in the 2009 draft, and they got him with the 31st overall pick because many clubs worried about his ability to make consistent contact. That hasn't been an issue since he signed for $972,000, as he already has conquered Double-A. He has been bothered by minor injuries: a strained wrist cut short his pro debut, a bruised heel hampered him with Team USA last October, and a staph infection in his shin ended his time in the Arizona Fall League.

Scouting Report: Jackson's quick bat, loft in his swing and plus speed should make him an annual 20-20 threat in the majors. He could stand to cut down his strikeouts, but he doesn't swing and miss as much as some teams feared and should hit for power and average. He played all three outfield positions last year, showing enough range to get the job done in center and honing his instincts with the help of roving instructor Bobby Dernier. Jackson gets good reads and jumps, has average arm strength and makes accurate throws. His even-keeled demeanor suits him well.

The Future: He's not a true five-tool player or a pure center fielder, but Jackson does a reasonable impression of both. He'll open 2011 in Triple-A, and the Cubs are counting on him to crack their lineup in 2012—if not sooner.

2010 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Daytona (Hi A) .316 .420 .517 263 56 83 19 8 6 38 43 63 12
Tennessee (AA) .276 .366 .465 228 47 63 13 6 6 28 30 63 18


3. Trey McNutt, rhp Born: Aug. 2, 1989 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 205
Drafted: Shelton State (Ala.) CC, 2009 (32nd round) • Signed by: Jim Crawford/Al Geddes
Background: When their Alabama area scout quit early in 2009, the Cubs decided not to replace him. So while other teams saw McNutt work in the high 80s at the start of Shelton State (Ala.) CC's season and backed off, Chicago didn't catch him until the Junior College World Series in June, when he showed a 90-93 mph fastball. After he turned down an eighth-round offer from the Twins, he slid all the way to 32nd round, where the Cubs signed him for $115,000. His stuff has continued to improve, propelling him to Double-A in his first full pro season.

Scouting Report: When he's going good, McNutt has two plus-plus pitches. Though his fastball comes in on a bit of a flat plane, he blows it by hitters at 92-98 mph. He can neutralize lefthanders by pitching to their back foot with his power breaking ball, which is more of curveball than a slider. Once McNutt uses his changeup more, it should become an average third pitch. He's stingy with walks but sometimes lapses into overthrowing, costing him command.

The Future: Ticketed for a return trip to Double-A, McNutt has a profile similar to that of Andrew Cashner and Chris Archer. All three have the stuff to pitch at the front of a rotation or close games.

2010 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
Peoria (Lo A) 6 0 1.51 13 13 0 0 60 43 0 24 70 .202
Daytona (Hi A) 4 0 2.63 9 9 0 0 41 29 3 9 49 .191
Tennessee (AA) 0 1 5.74 3 3 0 0 16 21 2 4 13 .333


4. Hak-Ju Lee, ss Born: Nov. 4, 1990 • B-T: L-R • Ht: 6-2 • Wt: 175
Drafted: Korea, 2008 • Signed by: Steve Wilson
Background: Few clubs scout the Far East as actively as the Cubs, whose biggest recent prize is Lee, signed for $725,000 out of Korea in 2008. He had Tommy John surgery before coming to the United States, but it hasn't held him back. He ranked as the short-season Northwest League's No. 1 prospect in his 2009 pro debut, and he and Brett Jackson represented Chicago at the Futures Game last July.

Scouting Report: A potential leadoff hitter, Lee controls the strike zone and has plus-plus speed. He has the bat speed and strength in his hands to hit for some power once he develops his upper body, though he can get overly aggressive and spin off some balls. Managers rated Lee the best defensive shortstop in the low Class A Midwest League in 2010. He has quick reactions, good range to both sides and a strong arm, though he needs to improve his reads and his focus after making 34 errors in 118 games last year. He also has to break a habit of flipping throws to first base. He picked up English quickly, helping him soak up instruction.

The Future: Lee will play at high Class A Daytona at age 20. The Cubs have time before they'll have to decide where to play him and Starlin Castro on the same club. Lee is quicker and flashier, so he could push Castro to second base.

2010 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Peoria (Lo A) .282 .354 .351 485 85 137 22 4 1 40 49 86 32


5. Josh Vitters, 3b Born: Aug. 27, 1989 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-3 • Wt: 195
Drafted: HS—Cypress, Calif., 2007 (1st round) • Signed by: Denny Henderson

Background: The No. 3 overall pick in the 2007 draft and recipient of a $3.2 million bonus, Vitters reached Double-A before he turned 21 but doesn't get a universal seal of approval from scouts. He hit .361 in his first 11 games at Tennessee last May, then just .194 in the next two months before a pitch broke his left hand in late July. He returned in the Arizona Fall League, where he continued to generate mixed opinions.

Scouting Report: In Chicago's view, Vitters has the compact stroke, bat speed, strength and hand-eye coordination to hit .280 with 25 homers a season. Club officials believe he's realizing he has to stop trying to pull everything and avoid putting tough pitches in play, though scouts outside the organization think his lack of patience will undermine his potential. He has worked hard on his quickness and body control, improving his speed and range to close to average. His detractors, however, wonder whether he has enough athleticism for the hot corner. His above-average arm is not in question.

The Future: The Cubs noted a greater sense of urgency in Vitters this offseason and think he's poised to break out at Tennessee in 2011. They hoped he'd be ready in time for them to decline Aramis Ramirez's $16 million contract action for 2012, but that might be pushing it.

2010 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Daytona (Hi A) .291 .350 .445 110 16 32 8 0 3 13 8 22 4
Tennessee (AA) .223 .292 .383 206 28 46 12 0 7 26 13 41 2


6. Chris Carpenter, rhp Born: Dec. 26, 1985 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 215
Drafted: Kent State, 2008 (3rd round) • Signed by: Lucas McKnight
Background: The highest-drafted high school pitcher in 2004 (seventh round, Tigers) who opted for college, Carpenter had Tommy John surgery as a Kent State freshman and a second elbow procedure the following year. Though his medical history dropped him to the third round of the 2008 draft, he hasn't missed a start as a pro. He opened eyes as a reliever in the Arizona Fall League after last season

Scouting Report: Carpenter profiles as a No. 3 starter or set-up man. Pitching out of the rotation, he works at 91-96 mph with his fastball, which has good life for a four-seamer. In relief in the AFL, he pitched at 94-99 mph and touched 101 in the Rising Stars Game. His low-80s breaking ball is a solid slider with bite at times and more slurvy at others. His changeup has deception and fade but probably won't ever be more than his third pitch. Carpenter still is figuring out control and command, as he runs into problems with walks and gets hit more than someone with his fastball should. He needs to do a better job of controlling the running game after giving up 23 steals in 29 attempts last year. He works diligently to stay healthy.

The Future: Carpenter hasn't dominated as a starter, so he may be in for a change of roles. It's possible he could begin 2011 in Iowa's rotation and finish the season in Chicago's bullpen.

2010 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
Tennessee (AA) 8 6 3.16 23 23 0 0 120 118 5 48 100 .262
Iowa (AAA) 0 0 5.40 3 3 0 0 15 19 3 9 12 .317


7. Matt Szczur, of Born: July 29, 1989 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-1 • Wt: 190
Drafted: Villanova, 2010 (5th round) • Signed by: Tim Adkins
Background: Szczur led Villanova to the 2009 NCAA football championship subdivision title, winning MVP honors in the final game with 270 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. He made more headlines last May, when he took time out of his baseball season to donate peripheral blood cells to a 1-year-old girl fighting leukemia. After missing three weeks, Szczur homered in his first at-bat back. The Cubs fell in love with his hitting ability, athleticism and makeup and drafted him in the fifth round. He signed for $100,000 and began his pro career with a 21-game hitting streak. Szczur returned to Villanova for his senior football season. Though he missed time with a high ankle sprain, he accounted for five touchdowns in an FCS quarterfinal game before the Wildcats were eliminated in the next round.

Scouting Report: Szczur's athletic ability is exciting enough, but it's his hitting skills that could make him a special player. Chicago marvels at his knack for barreling balls, and combined with his top-of-the-scale speed he should hit for high averages. He hits 400-foot bombs in batting practice, and once he gets more coaching and learns to finish through the ball better, he could have average or better power. He's refining his basestealing and baserunning, but his speed alone makes him a threat. Villanova football coach Andy Talley says Szczur is his fastest player ever, ahead of star NFL running back Brian Westbrook. In his short time in pro ball, Szczur's center-field play and his throwing made significant strides. He'll have plus-plus range once he improves his jumps, and his arm strength rated as average after he loosened up some of his football tightness. His competitiveness and work ethic are impeccable.

The Future: He has more upside than any position player in the system, but Szczur also projects as a mid-round NFL draft pick as a slot receiver and kick returner. The Cubs would hate to lose him. If he makes a written commitment to them before the NFL scouting combine in February, his baseball contract calls for an additional $500,000 payment.

2010 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
AZL Cubs (R) .500 .750 .500 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Boise (SS) .397 .439 .521 73 17 29 9 0 0 8 6 11 1
Peoria (Lo A) .192 .300 .308 26 6 5 1 1 0 2 3 5 0


8. Hayden Simpson, rhp Born: May 20, 1989 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-0 • Wt: 175
Drafted: Southern Arkansas, 2010 (1st round) • Signed by: Jim Crawford
Background: Chicago pulled the first huge surprise of the 2010 draft when it selected Simpson with the 16th overall pick. Considered as a fourth- to sixth-round talent by most clubs, he ranked second in NCAA Division II in wins (13) and strikeouts (131) last spring and went 35-2, 2.39 in three college seasons. A bad case of mononucleosis prevented him from pitching during the summer or instructional league, after he signed for a below-slot $1.06 million.

Scouting Report: Simpson uses a quick arm and a strong lower half to throw a low-90s fastball, and the Cubs saw him work at 94-97 in a Division II playoff game. They project him as a No. 2 or 3 starter with four average or better pitches, including a knee-buckling curveball, hard slider and effective changeup, not to mention plus control and command. Other teams don't rate his stuff quite as highly and think he'll have to add life to his fastball and work lower in the strike zone. They also wonder if he has the size to hold up as a starter, though Chicago thinks his athleticism will help in that regard.

The Future: Simpson lost 15 pounds before heading to the Cubs' Arizona complex in November to regain strength. If he performs well in spring training, he could make his pro debut at high Class A Daytona.

2010 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
Did Not Play—Illness


9. Rafael Dolis, rhp Born: Jan. 10, 1988 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 215
Drafted: Dominican Republic, 2004 • Signed by: Jose Serra/Marino Encarnacion
Background: The Cubs like to experiment with failed position players as pitchers, and they've turned former catchers into their closer (Carlos Marmol) and No. 4 starter (Randy Wells). They signed Dolis as a shortstop and moved him to the mound before he made his U.S. debut in 2006. He missed most of 2007 and all of 2008 with elbow issues that resulted in Tommy John surgery, then claimed a spot on the 40-man roster when he hit 101 mph in instructional league in 2009.

Scouting Report: Dolis' stuff kicked up a notch when then-pitching coordinator (and current big league pitching coach) Mark Riggins had him go to a full windup in the fall of 2009. Dolis pitched at 94-96 mph as a starter last season, holding his velocity deep into games, and if he moves to the bullpen he could work in the upper 90s. His mid-80s slider gives him a second potential plus pitch, and he also shows feel for a changeup. His command and control are still works in progress, understandable for a former infielder with less than 300 innings under his belt.

The Future: Dolis has the power repertoire to close games, though it's too early to give up on him as a starter. At worst, the extra innings will give him some much-needed experience. After finishing 2010 in Double-A, he'll return there to start this season.

2010 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
Daytona (Hi A) 4 5 2.92 14 13 1 0 71 63 3 30 48 .242
Tennessee (AA) 5 4 4.07 12 12 0 0 55 65 3 27 45 .295


10. Brandon Guyer, of Born: Jan. 26, 1986 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-1 • Wt: 210
Signed: Virginia, 2007 (5th round) • Signed by: Billy Swoope
Background: When the Cubs scouted Guyer at a 2007 NCAA playoff game, they saw him dislocate his left shoulder in a home-plate collision. The shoulder bothered him for his first two years in pro ball, and it led to another stint on the disabled list last May. That didn't stop him from leading the system in batting (.344) and the Double-A Southern League in slugging (.588) and OPS (.986), which earned him the organization's minor league player of the year award and a spot on the 40-man roster.

Scouting Report: An all-Virginia high school running back and linebacker who drew interest from college football programs, Guyer has solid power, plus speed and the best present outfield skills in the system. He's aggressive in all phases of the game, which hurts him at the plate because he makes contact so easily that he doesn't draw many walks. He knows how to use his quickness on the bases, swiping 30 bags in 33 tries last year. Guyer can play all three outfield positions, thanks to his speed and instincts. His arm has improved to where it's now average, and it's accurate as well.

The Future: Scouts see Guyer as a lesser version of Brett Jackson or a stronger version of Reed Johnson. Guyer's encore this year in Triple-A will help determine whether he'll become a regular or a fourth outfielder.

2010 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Tennessee (AA) .344 .398 .588 369 76 127 39 6 13 58 27 51 30

Hope Matt Szczur stays with baseball. At least Hendry didn't cough up 10M guaranteed!

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects Chat With Jim Callis

By Jim Callis
January 4, 2011

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Jim Callis: I've just finished my last contributions to the Prospect Handbook, so let's get this chat started a few minutes early. Fire away with Cubs questions!


JAYPERS (IL): Just how close was it between Archer and Jackson for the top spot, and what was the deciding factor?

Jim Callis: It was very close, and Trey McNutt wasn't far off either. I think Archer has a little more upside with a pair of potential plus-plus pitches versus Jackson's solid all-around play. Jackson is a safer bet, if you wanted to go in that direction. They're the same age and have succeeded at the same level (Double-A), so those weren't any help as tiebreakers.


Ben (Leland Grove): Thoughts on Micah Gibbs? 11-20 guy? How are his receiving skills?

Jim Callis: He didn't make the Cubs Top 30 in the upcoming 2011 Prospect Handbook. I think he was the best receiver available in the 2010 draft, but scouts aren't sold that he's going to hit enough to be a regular. I did consider him for the Top 30, but the Cubs have impressive depth.


Harry (Trenton, NJ): I've been reading that Reggie Golden could have 5-tool abilities. Do you concur with this, and about how far off the Top 10 was he?

Jim Callis: He does, but he also has a lot of refinement to do. He fell in the middle of the 11-30 mix. Hamstring problems limited him as a high school senior and in his pro debut, but I've had multiple scouts compare him to a young Kevin Mitchell. He has plus-plus raw power.


Guy (VA): Dae-Eun Rhee - prospect or suspect?

Jim Callis: Still a prospect. He had Tommy John surgery in 2009, so last year was just a recovery season for him. We'll have a better feel for what he can become in 2011, when the surgery will be two years behind him. His stuff hasn't come all the way back yet.


Frank (Joliet, IL): How far down has Jay Jackson's stock fallen since last year? What's his future role likely to be?

Jim Callis: The Cubs called up 12 pitchers from Triple-A Iowa in 2010, but Jackson wasn't one of them. He has been passed by some other pitchers, and his stuff regressed a little last year, but he still has the upside of a possible No. 3 starter.


Harry (Chitown): How far off the top 10 was Robinson Chirinos and whats the word on him. thanks

Jim Callis: He was in the middle of the 11-20 mix. He intrigues me. His conversion to catching has gone really well, and it has made him a better hitter to boot. He's blocked by Geovany Soto in Chicago, but Chirinos could be an ideal backup as a guy who can hit for solid average and power while being able to play several positions. If my team needed a catcher, I'd see if I could pry Chirinos away from the Cubs.


Jake (MD): What did scouts have to say about LeMahieu's season?

Jim Callis: Mixed reports. Everyone agrees that he can hit, and he's the best pure hitter in the system. But while the Cubs think he has a chance to play second base and make some adjustments to hit 15 homers per year, scouts outside the organization don't think he has the quickness to play second or the power for third.


JAYPERS (IL): About where would you rank the Cubbies' system overall at present?

Jim Callis: I won't give away all of our farm system rankings in the 2011 Prospect Handbook, but I will reveal that we ranked the Cubs at No. 8.


Paul (Midwest): Is Simpson an overdraft in your opinion? What led the Cubs to take him as high as they did?

Jim Callis: He was in my opinion but the Cubs have no regrets about taking him 16th overall, after he missed his first pro summer with a bad case of mono. They saw him better than most clubs did, watching him work at 94-97 mph in an NCAA Division II playoff game and think he'll have four average to plus pitches with good command. The Angels also saw Simpson good and had five picks between Chicago's first- and second-rounders, forcing the Cubs' hand.


Frankie (Dallas): Did Ben Wells come close to making your list? Why or why not?

Jim Callis: Too early to make the Top 10, but he did make the Top 30. He flew under the radar for much of the spring, and teams who were on him told me that he would have been a third-round pick (or better) had he gotten exposure and been crosschecked thoroughly. He has a plus fastball, possible plus slider and an interesting splitter.


Jon (Peoria): Do you think that either Robinson Chirinos or Wellington Castillo can beat out Koyie Hill for the backup catcher job?

Jim Callis: They could. I think the best case would be for Chirinos to back up Soto while Castillo plays every day in Triple-A.


Grant (Baltimore, MD): I see a few pitchers on your list you describe as either a SP or RP down the road (in addition to Cashner), yet you have Marmol as their closer on the 2014 lineup card. If you had to pick one of these prospects to be their closer right now (pretending for a minute they're all Major League-ready), who would it be?

Jim Callis: Assuming Marmol is gone, if I had to pick a closer from the remaining arms, I might go with Archer. He has the stuff to close, and his command and control aren't as good as Cashner's or McNutt's.


Don (Rosemont, IL): Have you heard any word on whether Sczcur will formally give up football prior to the scouting combine? How do his tools compare with Reggie Golden's?

Jim Callis: I haven't heard. He was injured for part of the fall at Villanova, and I wonder if that might help drive him to baseball, where it's easier to stay in one piece. Golden has more raw power and more arm strength than Szczur, but Szczur is a better hitter, runner and outfielder.


Dan (Lansing): Give me the quick scouting report on Dustin Geiger.

Jim Callis: 24th-round pick last June, still growing into body, power potential, good defensively at third base.


Steve (Sarasota): If he were eligible, where would Jeff Samardzija be in the Cubs top 30? Have you or the Cubs given up on him?

Jim Callis: Maybe toward the end of the list. I don't think the Cubs have handled him well at all, and I don't see him as more as a middle reliever in the long run now. There's some obvious arm strength there but he just doesn't miss enough bats.


JAYPERS (IL): How confident are you that Szczur will adapt to playing baseball full time better than someone like, say, Samardzija?

Jim Callis: The difference to me is that Szczur has shown aptitude in addition to raw physical talent. He's a gifted hitter who squares ball up and made strides defensively during his short time in pro ball. Samardzija threw hard at Notre Dame, but he was mostly a one-pitch pitcher and didn't strike out a lot of guys in Big East Conference competition.


Bob (Mundelein, IL): Is Chris Rusin a guy to keep an eye on as a back-end starter either toward the end of this year or next year? Also, did Austin Kirk fall somewhere near the back end of the list?

Jim Callis: More for next year. He's a finesse lefty who can really pitch, and he has the best changeup and control in the system. I had trouble squeezing lefties onto the Top 30. I got Brooks Raley on there but left Rusin and Kirk off. They'll all close, as are Jeffry Antigua and Cameron Greathouse.


Marty (Philly): Hey Jim, I know you like Marquez Smith a little, but was it a surprise to see him not selected in the Rule 5? He seems to be MLB ready as a nice bat off the bench. Did the Cubs get lucky?

Jim Callis: It's harder for teams to take hitters (as opposed to pitchers) in the Rule 5 draft because it's more difficult to find enough playing time to avoid wasting their year. I thought Smith might get popped because he can hit and he can play second or third base, but the Cubs gambled successfully that he wouldn't be taken.


Bob (Mundelein, IL): Do you think that guys like Ben Wells, Austin Reed, Aaron Kurcz, or Cam Greathouse will start in Peoria next year? Who is the top pitcher (besides Simpson) to keep an eye on in the lower levels of the organization?

Jim Callis: Wells hasn't faced the competition the other guys have, so it's possible he could make his pro debut at short-season Boise, but I think the other three will open the year in Peoria. Actually, Kurcz is advanced enough that he might skip a level and head to high Class A Daytona. All of those guys are very interesting, but the best young pitcher to watch may be Robinson Lopez, who was part of the Derrek Lee trade with the Braves. The Cubs do a great job extracting value when dealing veterans, and Lopez touched 97 mph at times last year.


Don (Rosemont, IL): As a charter member of the Junior Lake Fan Club, I'm intrigued by his power potential and arm. Do you think that his bat and defense will ever improve enough to be a starting infielder?

Jim Callis: I am too, and he spent last year in high Class A at age 20. He's not the most disciplined hitter or reliable fielder, so it wouldn't shock me if the Cubs eventually tried him on the mound. Lake's best position is probably third base, which means he may have to go back to Daytona if D.J. LeMahieu and Ryan Flaherty are in Double-A.


John (Daytona): Where do you see Ryan Flaherty? He has hit well, with some power, at all stops except for a brief stint in AA, and can handle many positions.

Jim Callis: He's similar to D.J. LeMahieu in that he has some strengths but doesn't profile great at a particular position. Flaherty has some power, but he can't really play the middle infield and has been erratic at third base. I think he's ultimately more of a corner utility guy.


Pigs (Fargo, Nd): Where did Trey Mcnutt come from? He didn't seem like he was on the prospect map at all until this year.

Jim Callis: Pigs, you have to read your Prospect Handbook, because he was in last year's edition. The Cubs signed McNutt as an obscure 32nd-round pick out of junior college, and he started showing a mid-90s fastball and a power breaking ball. That combo allowed him to reach Double-A in his first full pro season.


Mike (Des Moines): What's the word on OF Evan Crawford? I don't think theres enough bat or aptitude. Prospects like him (Toolsy, all projection, high K rates) frustrate me becasue they never seem to pan out yet seem to get a lot of love from scouts.

Jim Callis: He didn't make my Top 30. He can really run and he's athletic, but I wonder about the bat as well. Not a bad get for Mike Fontenot, though.


Don (Rosemont, IL): What are your thoughts on Jae-Hoon Ha? I was impressed with his hitting ability last year, though I wasn't sure about what type of power he could realistically have or which outfield position he would fit best at.

Jim Callis: Another guy I want to see more of. I got mixed reviews on him when I was working on our Midwest League coverage, but he did hit .317/.334/.468 in a tough hitter's league, playing in low Class A as a 19-year-old. He's more of a high-average, gap-power, 15-homer-max type of guy than a slugger. One club official told me he had the most competitive at-bats of any Cubs farmhand last year. He's a good corner outfielder who can fill in in center as needed.


Pete O. (Chicago): A lot of turnover in the Cubs' Top 10 between this year and last. Did Jay Jackson, Flaherty, Watkins etc disappoint or did the system just get strong enough that those guys didn't crack the top 10 anymore?

Jim Callis: Some of each. Jackson, Flaherty and Watkins didn't quite have the years hoped. Archer, McNutt and Guyer took huge steps forward, and Szczur and Simpson arrived via the draft.


Ken (Lakewood CA): Guyer's stats in AA are impressive. Where does he come up short that puts him at #10 instead of closer to the top? Not that there is anything wrong with being an organization's #10 ML. Thanks.

Jim Callis: He's overly aggressive at the plate and has a hard time staying healthy. He's a good athlete with legitimate tools, but scouts aren't convinced that he didn't play over his head during his big year in Double-A in 2010. Some see him as a possible solid regular, others see him as more of a good fourth outfielder.


Dan (Lansing): Is Elvis Andrus a good comp. for Hak-Ju Lee or is that dreaming?

Jim Callis: Different types of players. Andrus is a better defender while Lee has more offensive potential.


Jasen (FLL): Is the prospect book gonna be in stores by the end of the month?

Jim Callis: I believe early to mid-February for stores. If you order the Handbook directly from Baseball America, we'll ship in the middle of the month, and throw in a bonus supplement with 30 extra prospects.


Dan (Lansing): What can you tell me about Dallas Beeler?

Jim Callis: Another good sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had Tommy John surgery at Oral Roberts, throwing 92-95 again and also showing a promising slider.


Dan (Lansing): Any chance Casey Coleman sticks as a long term SP?

Jim Callis: Sure. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the Cubs' other arms, but he really knows how to pitch and does all the little things well. Those guys have a habit of sticking around longer than might be expected. By the way, he didn't make the Top 30 because he exhausted his eligibility once he passed 50 innings in the majors.


Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of last years top 30 prospect group, who has jumped up the most notches and who has dropped the most spots down in this years group?

Jim Callis: Archer moved up 14 spots from No. 15 to No. 1, while McNutt rose 13 spots from No. 16 to No. 3. Chirinos and Castillo both improved 10 spots from Nos. 26 and 27 to Nos. 16 and 17. (Guyer came from off the 2010 list to No. 10 this year.) In the other direction, Kyler Burke (was No. 11) and John Gaub (was No. 14) fell totally off the list. Watkins went from No. 7 to No. 21 and Flaherty went from No. 9 to No. 22. Remember, our list ultimately reflects Baseball America's opinion and not necessarily that of the Cubs.


Travis (Phoenix, AZ): What is the outlook on Wes Darvill as he hit over .300 as an 18 year old in the AZL?

Jim Callis: Another one of the Cubs' better sleepers. He could be a very interesting hitter once he adds some needed strength. Chicago is ridiculously loaded at third base with Vitters, LeMahieu, Flaherty, Lake, Cerda, Smith, Darvill and Geiger.


Steve (Michigan): Hello Jim, thanks for chatting...How would you rank/compare Josh Vitters to the other big 3B prospects; Moustakas, Chisenhall, Dominguez, Viviedo? And, do the Cubs plan on keeping him at 3B for the future? Thanks!

Jim Callis: That's a motley crew. I believe more in Moustakas' power than in Vitters', and I believe more in Chisenhall's bat than Vitters'. Dominguez is a better fielder, but I'd still take Vitters' bat over his. Viciedo, I see him more as a 1B/DH and I'd still take Vitters over him. The Cubs think Vitters is poised to break out in 2011, and I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt because he's barely 21. Would like to see him justify that faith next year, though.


Bernie (Warwick, RI): Where does Matt Cerda fall in the top 30 ?

Jim Callis: He just missed, and in fact he's the bonus Cub you get if you order the Handbook directly from us and get the supplement with an extra prospect per club. He can really hit and control the strike zone, but the other facets of his game still need work. I think he fits best at third base, and he may not have enough power for the position.


Billy (Champaign): Who do you like more: Brooks Raley or Chris Rusin? And why?

Jim Callis: Raley. It's close, but I think his stuff is a little better and he's more athletic.


Raoul (Tucson, Az): Yo, Jimbo, does Cashner have true #1 stuff or did you slot him as the top starter cause he'll be the best of what they have in 3 years?

Jim Callis: I'm tough doling out the No. 1 platitudes and envision him as more of a true No. 2 starter. But he definitely has frontline starter stuff with a mid-90s fastball and mid-80 slider. With improved command, he could be a true No. 1.


Bill (Lincoln,NE): Thanks for answering my question Jim, Do you see Matt Szczur's ceiling being something along the lines of a Grady Sizemore type centerfielder or am I just being optimistic?

Jim Callis: Not saying he'll get there, but no, that's not an unrealistic ceiling. Szczur has top-of-the-line speed and athleticism, and he can really hit.


Joe R (Newport News, VA): If Hayden Simpson hadn't been a first-round draft pick, but instead a third-rounder — and had the same profile and lack of professional history, would he still have been a top ten prospect?

Jim Callis: Yes. Jay Jackson made our Cubs Top 10 in his draft year, and he was a ninth-rounder. Obviously, we know these guys' pedigrees, but we're ranking them based on talent and not draft position. I put Szczur (fifth round) ahead of Simpson.


Bernie (Warwick, RI): What's the 2011 outlook for fellow RI'der Jeff Beliveau ? Is he a fringe mlb middle reliever if he can't harness his control ?

Jim Callis: Another terrific sleeper. Could have made a lot of Top 30s and I wanted to slide him on there. I think he's going to have a nice career as a lefty reliever.


bubblesdachimp (DC): Do the Cubs have the best farm system in the NL central right now?

Jim Callis: Neck and neck with the Reds.


Billy (Champaign): In the best tools section you have Brett Jackson as the best hitter for power. Does that mean you think he has more raw power than guys like Vitters and Golden or just that you think he has a better chance of getting it to actually show up in games?

Jim Callis: That would be most usable power. Vitters and Golden might have more raw power, but as of now, I'd bet that Jackson will hit the most homers in the big leagues. Jackson's raw power is nothing to scoff at either.


bubblesdachimp (DC): Dear Jim, My buddy Steph an Orioles fan made the comment that 8 seems a little high for the Cubs ranking. Would you take the Cubs over the Orioles system and does the 8 ranking say more about incredible depth as compared to high upside talent?

Jim Callis: No question, Cubs over Orioles (No. 21 on our list, dropoff after Machado and Britton). The Cubs have a pretty solid top three (Archer, Jackson, McNutt) on the top of their list, but it's fair to say their depth drives our ranking.


Ryan (Abingdon, MD): Can you remember the last time you ranked a player in the top 10 who didn't make their team's top 30 the year before? If so, who was it?

Jim Callis: Did the same thing with the Red Sox this year, with Oscar Tejeda going from off the list to No. 10 (after the Casey Kelly trade).


Sang (Chicago): What do scouts think of Scott Maine? He's put up solid numbers the past couple years in the minors but I dont recall too much being written about him.

Jim Callis: Scouts give him a lot of credit for making adjustments. He looked very ordinary at the beginning of last year, but he was in Chicago throwing 93-95 mph and showing a much better slider at the end of the season.


Bill (Deerfield, IL): Where would the Cubs system rank if Cashner and Castro still qualified?

Jim Callis: They wouldn't be No. 1 ahead of the Royals, but they could make a case for No. 2.


Frank (Queens): Did Alberto Cabrera come close to making the list? What reports did you get on his stuff?

Jim Callis: Very close. He's No. 11. Threw 92-97 mph as a starter, has a pair of hard breaking pitches, may wind up a reliever.


Ron (Wisc): Hello Jim, thanks for taking this...I see in the write-up on Vitters a lot about what the Cubs and others thing of him. I want to know what YOU think of him? Will be be a solid 3B, what kinda of BA/HR will he produce, and when do you think he'll get there and stay there? Thanks!

Jim Callis: He was only 20 last year, so I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt. I think he can be a .275/20 HR hitter, possibly more, but I don't see him being more than decent at third base.

Jim Callis: Thanks for all the great questions. Cubs fans always turn out in force. Feel free to hit me up at Twitter (@jimcallisBA), and I'll have a new Ask BA up tomorrow. Tune in tomorrow as well for our next prospect chat, as J.J. Cooper discusses the Reds.

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