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Books Staying the Course following NFL Nightmare
The 2005-06 NFL season was one of the worst the sportsbook industry has seen in decades, but oddsmakers have no plans of altering their strategy for the upcoming campaign.
But before discussing why books are staying the course, it’s important to first understand why last year was such a disaster.
According to Andy Iskoe, professional handicapper and founder of TheLogicalApproach.com, pointspread favorites covered at an almost unprecedented rate of 57.72 percent last season. The average bettor has a well-known affinity for teams that are giving points, so when the favorites have such a strong season books take it on the chin.
“Yes, for sure. The public loves favorites, so if they win, it definitely affects our bottom line,” says BetCRIS.com oddsmaker Shane Catford. “Also with things like teaser bets, (the public) usually bets the favorites to get another six or seven points and with the favorites winning, it spells good times for our customers.”
“Last year’s NFL results were definitely a forgettable and depressing one for the books,” adds BetWWTS.com linesman Michael Pierce.
You’d think that would prompt oddsmakers to come up with an entirely new game plan, or at the very least alter their strategies a little. But books insist that it’ll be business as usual when this pigskin season kicks off.
“Not really,” says Pierce, when asked if he’ll have the favorites laying more points than they normally would. “I think the only team that we will shade early are the Colts, despite losing Edgerrin James. I think the new guys in place are decent replacements and now that they have a reliable big-game kicker (in Adam Vinatieri), they will be a very popular choice early this season.”
“It will really depend on our customers and how they bet,” adds Catford. “We just try to open a line where we can get (balanced) action (on the underdog and favorite).”
Although those methods resulted in subpar profits last year, the industry isn’t worried about another weak NFL season and Iskoe’s research justifies that confidence.
His data indicates that 2005-06 was only the second season through the last 10 where favorites did any better than 48.71 percent. Their 57.72 coverage rate was also about four percent better than they did in any of the previous 17 seasons.
“My numbers may differ slightly from other sources depending on lines charted… but any variance would not be great enough to overcome the fact that NFL favorites had a record season in 2005,” says Iskoe. “But (it was) merely a cyclical phenomenon. That is, it appears that every seven or eight years… NFL favorites have banner years.”
So why did 2005-06 happen to be a banner year? Well, although the NFL and its salary cap were designed with parity in mind, a fiscal balance doesn’t always level the playing field. Thirteen teams finished with 13 or more wins, 14 had 10 or more losses while only the five remaining clubs finished anywhere near the .500 mark.
“I think the league was a bit top heavy last year,” suggests Pierce. “You had dominant teams like the Colts who were a legit threat to go undefeated, and other popular teams like Denver went an impressive 13-3. Also, don’t expect any team to win its division by more than four games this year, like Seattle did by a staggering seven games.”
That brings us to the wagering side of the equation and like oddsmakers, the pro bettors have no intention of altering their handicapping methods either. Because last year’s results can be chalked up to an anomaly, they’re sticking with the same strategies that have a long-term history of success in the NFL market.
“No, we will not change anything at all,” says Covers Expert David Malinsky. “It was not really an issue of the oddsmakers coming up short. If you go through the games carefully, especially the games with the bigger favorites, not many were falling close to the line at all.
“So even if the oddsmakers had increased all of the favorites by a point or so, it would not have altered many wagering outcomes.”
The best advice bettors can take into the upcoming season is to simply drop the long-term perspective and to break things down one game at a time.
“Every game is its own unique event, and the fact that certain general patterns have emerged in any season does not alter that,” concludes Malinsky. “That does not help much in terms of finding shortcuts, but shortcuts tend to not cut it at this level.”
“I don’t think it will be easy money this year on the favorites, especially early,” warns Pierce. “I expect there to be a lot more parity this season.”
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