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I've been saying just about all of this for the past couple of seasons.
In the National Football League, we've seen plenty of turmoil at the quarterback position this season. Already, 46 different QBs have started games; that's just one shy of last year's total, and we've got seven weeks to go. But one of the most significant situations, in my mind, is the injury to Jay Cutler in Chicago. Not so much because of the ramifications for the Bears' playoff chances, but because of the potential impact on Cutler's future with the team.
Cutler's contract expires at the end of the season, meaning this year has been something of a "show me" season for the quarterback in order to earn a contract on par with the NFL's other franchise passers. Often, those deals come in around the $100 million range. Yes, the Bears have the option of giving Cutler the franchise tag, which means a one-year deal. Based on what I've seen from Cutler this season, I simply don't think he's earned a longer deal, and I would not sign him to a big contract this offseason.
That doesn't mean the Bears won't sign him.
Nor does it make Cutler a "bad" quarterback. But what it does mean is that I've seen enough warning signs from Cutler's play that it would scare me away from a long-term, big-money investment.
Let's break it down.
The virtues
In terms of pure arm talent, there may not be a better quarterback in the NFL than Cutler.
Take that first-quarter touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. That was as pretty a throw as you'll see. I'd say there are only a handful of quarterbacks who can make that throw. If you read my column regularly, you'll know I believe a top-flight quarterback has to be able to attack a defense on all three levels. Cutler has the ability to do just that. This season he's 4-of-9 on passes thrown 30-plus yards in the air. Those are the big plays. He's hitting on almost half of those strikes, and he'll continue to hit them as long as he has the weapons to target. That will keep defensive coordinators concerned about the deep ball and keep safeties from creeping up to the line of scrimmage to challenge running back Matt Forte. Cutler can make throws to every level, and to the perimeters.
Now, will we get to see more of the "good" Cutler this season? He is in a hard cast to support his ankle, and the time frame for a potential return is a little cloudy. Josh McCown has filled in competently in Cutler's absence, and if McCown continues to succeed in that replacement role, it will draw even more scrutiny regarding Cutler's future. That's especially true if we continue to notice the absence of some of the recurring troubles that have plagued Cutler to this point in his career as we watch McCown drive the Bears' offense.
The vices
Since entering the league in 2006, Cutler has yet to record a season in which he's put up a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than 1.86; that was his first season in Denver, when he played just five games. His best season for scoring -- 27 touchdowns in 2009 -- was also pockmarked by picks, with 26.
He has averaged 0.6 fumbles per game, a rate that trails only Michael Vick among regular starting quarterbacks with more than three full seasons of experience. His career QBR is 55.7, and he's topped that mark only twice since coming to Chicago, including his mark of 63.2 through Week 10 this season.
I believe many of these shortcomings are the symptoms of what I see on the game film: inconsistent mechanics.
Yes, the Bears have had some poor offensive-line play the past few seasons, but the protection has been above average this season and I'm still seeing poor mechanics from Cutler. Even when that offensive line sets him up with a clean cradle with which to work, he's not setting his feet, he's making poor reads, he's trying to squeeze the ball into nonexistent windows, and he's sometimes delivering the ball from awkward angles when he doesn't have to. Those are not the hallmarks of a franchise quarterback. Also, Cutler continues to hold the ball low, leaving it vulnerable for strips.
This season
The conditions improved for Cutler over the offseason. As noted, the line play has improved after adding draft picks Kyle Long and Jordan Mills, along with free-agent signing Jermon Bushrod. Chicago gave him another big target in tight end Martellus Bennett, and Alshon Jeffery has emerged as a very good No. 2 receiver across from Marshall. Forte is a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield and creates yards after the catch. Add in the coaching of QB specialist and head coach Marc Trestman, and there's not much more Cutler could ask for.
Yes, Cutler's QBR is higher than it's been since 2008, his final season in Denver. But compare that to McCown's QBR, which is at 87.0 after his relief work. The veteran backup has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions, he hasn't fumbled, and he's averaging 7.69 yards per completion in his three games spelling Cutler.
In terms of rate-based statistics, the only edge Cutler holds over McCown this season is in completion percentage: 63.0 to 60.0. So how much is Cutler carrying the offense and how much is the offense carrying Cutler? That's the question the Bears' front office is going to have to answer this offseason.
The issue is that we're no longer talking about things he can learn. He's 30 years old, in his eighth season with over 100 games to his name. He's played for some very good coaches. At what point do we stop saying, "He's got to show me more," and close the book on him, knowing that for better and worse this is Jay Cutler?
The future
As I mentioned earlier, the numbers and the evidence working against Cutler don't paint him as a bad quarterback. But his inconsistent play and lack of dominance don't suggest he's a championship-caliber quarterback, either. And that's what I'm looking for if I'm running a team.
When I evaluate QBs for my quarterly Big Board, I'm looking for the quarterback who is going to go win a Super Bowl. That's admittedly a high standard, but I can guarantee that's exactly what the NFL's coaches and front offices are looking for, as well. No one's saying, "I want a QB who can lock down that second wild card!"
Of course, the decision on Cutler won't be made with that degree of absolutism. If you let him go, you have to replace him. And as we're seeing around the league right now, that's easier said than done. While the draft may offer some good options this spring, there are no guarantees. And if you go the free-agent route, your options include Vick, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, Kellen Clemens, Matt Flynn and Rex Grossman. Is there a clear upgrade there?
The Bears can use the franchise tag on Cutler, and that may be the route they choose. That would give them another year, with the option of drafting another QB and evaluating him for a season while they see if Cutler can show them more. From my perspective, I haven't seen enough to warrant a big-money commitment. If it's me making the call, I'm not handing Cutler a big contract this offseason.
By Ron Jaworski | ESPN Insider
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Be well
GO BEARS!!!
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